Bitcoin Forum
December 04, 2016, 06:17:32 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Poll
Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

Pages: « 1 ... 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 [511] 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 ... 1560 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804026 times)
Chalkbot
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 892



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:19:37 PM
 #10201

It's already a no-brainer to borrow long term in USD and buy and hold BTC.

What we're waiting for to see hyperbitcoinization is for that knowledge to rapidly spread through the pool of potential borrowers.

This is pretty much the limiting factor. As a rough barometer, I think I saw some poll of investors recently that said ~55% of them thought bitcoin was a terrible investment, or that it was in a bubble. Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not? Is there a single event, or chain of events that would change this perception, or do we watch the number slowly fall until the remainder can't stem the tide?
1480832252
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480832252

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480832252
Reply with quote  #2

1480832252
Report to moderator
1480832252
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480832252

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480832252
Reply with quote  #2

1480832252
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1480832252
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480832252

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480832252
Reply with quote  #2

1480832252
Report to moderator
1480832252
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1480832252

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1480832252
Reply with quote  #2

1480832252
Report to moderator
CTRLX
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 286


View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:22:40 PM
 #10202

Sorry for not speaking your language and forgive my noobishness, but if that reddit post is true I might want to reconsider selling Bitcoin for fiat anytime soon?
Chalkbot
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 892



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:24:14 PM
 #10203

Sorry for not speaking your language and forgive my noobishness, but if that reddit post is true I might want to reconsider selling Bitcoin for fiat anytime soon?

If I were you, I would reconsider even if it were proven false.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:24:41 PM
 #10204

Sorry for not speaking your language and forgive my noobishness, but if that reddit post is true I might want to reconsider selling Bitcoin for fiat anytime soon?

definitely
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:26:41 PM
 #10205

Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?

no. we've seen perception and buying pressure rise several times during the run ups over the last several years.  ppl get MORE bullish with the price rises.  it's a feedback loop like justus was saying.  and it doesn't just exist in Bitcoin. it's true for all markets.
CTRLX
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 286


View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:30:21 PM
 #10206

Sorry for not speaking your language and forgive my noobishness, but if that reddit post is true I might want to reconsider selling Bitcoin for fiat anytime soon?

If I were you, I would reconsider even if it were proven false.

Thanks, yes I am not planning on selling anytime soon, but I just wanted to check with more knowledgable people in this thread if my conclusion after reading that post was right. English is not my first language. Thank you for your reply.
justusranvier
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1400



View Profile WWW
August 05, 2014, 07:31:12 PM
 #10207

This is pretty much the limiting factor. As a rough barometer, I think I saw some poll of investors recently that said ~55% of them thought bitcoin was a terrible investment, or that it was in a bubble. Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?
You want a certain number of people to remain sceptical of Bitcoin for as long as possible, especially among the people who lend USD.

Is there a single event, or chain of events that would change this perception, or do we watch the number slowly fall until the remainder can't stem the tide?
Hyperbitcoinization is the last bubble in the USD/BTC exchange rate.

All the prior speculative manias collapse when the infrastructure can no longer handle the growth and Bitcoin holders sell in order to "lock in their gains"

One of these times (we won't know which one until after the fact) the risk perception of BTC vs fiat will invert such that Bitcoin will be regarded as the safe asset. Once that happens, the bubble doesn't pop because it becomes less about the rise of Bitcoin and instead is the flight to safety away from the USD (fiat in general).
Chalkbot
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 892



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:31:44 PM
 #10208

Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?

no. we've seen perception and buying pressure rise several times during the run ups over the last several years.  ppl get MORE bullish with the price rises.  it's a feedback loop like justus was saying.  and it doesn't just exist in Bitcoin. it's true for all markets.

Yes, but if that were the only factor, than none of the previous price bubbles should have ended before completely collapsing the USD. Certainly of that (let's call it) 55% group, some of them will change their mind in a bull market, but at the same time, when there are rapid gains there is an increase in previously bullish folk changing tunes, under the pretense that we've gone too high to sustain. So an equivalent negative feedback loop?
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:40:22 PM
 #10209

Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?

no. we've seen perception and buying pressure rise several times during the run ups over the last several years.  ppl get MORE bullish with the price rises.  it's a feedback loop like justus was saying.  and it doesn't just exist in Bitcoin. it's true for all markets.

Yes, but if that were the only factor, than none of the previous price bubbles should have ended before completely collapsing the USD. Certainly of that (let's call it) 55% group, some of them will change their mind in a bull market, but at the same time, when there are rapid gains there is an increase in previously bullish folk changing tunes, under the pretense that we've gone too high to sustain. So an equivalent negative feedback loop?

correct, it isn't the only factor.  

markets move in cycles or waves; none ever move in a straight line up.  this is why i believe there is some validity to technical analysis and i employ it routinely.  but i also rely on the fundamentals.  there are always periods of bullishness and bearishness which we will continue to see.  

and then there's trend and the trend in Bitcoin has clearly been up.  
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:44:45 PM
 #10210

a 2nd leaker.  things aren't going so well for the NSA:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/05/politics/u-s-new-leaker/index.html
Adrian-x
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1330



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:49:25 PM
 #10211

It's already a no-brainer to borrow long term in USD and buy and hold BTC.

What we're waiting for to see hyperbitcoinization is for that knowledge to rapidly spread through the pool of potential borrowers.
I think banks are sensitive to this hence the reluctance to accommodate Bitcoin businesses.

FYI in Canada this year I've made 3 deposits to Bitcoin exchanges, and 3 times I've had to visit my bank manager to confirm my accounts have not been compromised. Including 1 new card issue, and to my knowledge no fraud.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
Chalkbot
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 892



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 07:51:25 PM
 #10212

Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?

no. we've seen perception and buying pressure rise several times during the run ups over the last several years.  ppl get MORE bullish with the price rises.  it's a feedback loop like justus was saying.  and it doesn't just exist in Bitcoin. it's true for all markets.

Yes, but if that were the only factor, than none of the previous price bubbles should have ended before completely collapsing the USD. Certainly of that (let's call it) 55% group, some of them will change their mind in a bull market, but at the same time, when there are rapid gains there is an increase in previously bullish folk changing tunes, under the pretense that we've gone too high to sustain. So an equivalent negative feedback loop?

correct, it isn't the only factor. 

markets move in cycles or waves; none ever move in a straight up.  this is why i believe there is some validity to technical analysis and i employ it routinesly.  but i also rely on the fundamentals.  there are always periods of bullishness and bearishness which we will continue to see. 

and then there's trend and the trend in Bitcoin has clearly been up. 

So this might be a personal question, but seeing as how you're interested in TA of interim price action, does that mean that you actively buy and sell bitcoin? I was smart enough to see where this was headed a long time ago, and that insight has served me well over time. However, I have 0 faith in my ability to predict how and when we get there, so the best plan has always been hold (for me). Perhaps the only reason I come here everyday is to see if we've arrived yet and be amused by all the people charting our course to destinations that must be unknown to them...
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 08:01:02 PM
 #10213

Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?

no. we've seen perception and buying pressure rise several times during the run ups over the last several years.  ppl get MORE bullish with the price rises.  it's a feedback loop like justus was saying.  and it doesn't just exist in Bitcoin. it's true for all markets.

Yes, but if that were the only factor, than none of the previous price bubbles should have ended before completely collapsing the USD. Certainly of that (let's call it) 55% group, some of them will change their mind in a bull market, but at the same time, when there are rapid gains there is an increase in previously bullish folk changing tunes, under the pretense that we've gone too high to sustain. So an equivalent negative feedback loop?

correct, it isn't the only factor. 

markets move in cycles or waves; none ever move in a straight up.  this is why i believe there is some validity to technical analysis and i employ it routinesly.  but i also rely on the fundamentals.  there are always periods of bullishness and bearishness which we will continue to see. 

and then there's trend and the trend in Bitcoin has clearly been up. 

So this might be a personal question, but seeing as how you're interested in TA of interim price action, does that mean that you actively buy and sell bitcoin? I was smart enough to see where this was headed a long time ago, and that insight has served me well over time. However, I have 0 faith in my ability to predict how and when we get there, so the best plan has always been hold (for me). Perhaps the only reason I come here everyday is to see if we've arrived yet and be amused by all the people charting our course to destinations that must be unknown to them...

i just buy dips.
Chalkbot
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 892



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 08:16:21 PM
 #10214


The update on this post says the OP will be releasing this info through a reliable business/economics news source.
NewLiberty
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1064


Gresham's Lawyer


View Profile WWW
August 05, 2014, 08:21:49 PM
 #10215

it looks to me that mining would be best described as being in a Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium - cypherdoc
Highlights are mine:


"A pure strategy Nash equilibrium is a profile of strategies such that each player’s (miner's) strategy is a best response ((results in the highest available payoff (block reward)) against the equilibrium strategies of the other players (miners).

A pure strategy Nash equilibrium only requires that the action taken by each agent (miner) be best against the actual equilibrium actions taken by the other players (miners), and not necessarily against all possible actions of the other players (miners). In other words, it's expected for some miners to be malicious.

A Nash equilibrium has the nice property that it is stable: if each player expects 'a' to be the profile of actions played, then no player (miner) has any incentive to change his or her action (no incentive to start cheating). In other words, no player (miner) regrets having played the action that he or she played in a Nash equilibrium.
"

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1968579

Nice. I hadn't looked at it that way but it makes perfect sense.


Nash equilibrium works well in theory, the real world is a little more messy.
Pre-mass adoption there are so many outside interests seeking bitcoin failure that there are other incentives at play.
Once there is more distribution and buy in, the full effects of the Nash Equilibrium will be much stronger than they are today.



the Nash equilibrium is a solution concept of a non-cooperative game; therefore, i think the Nash Equilibrium takes those hostile actors into account.  the minimum # of participants required to apply the theory is 2 and doesn't depend on large #'s.  what's also important for all actors to know and understand, and to know that the others know, is that the longest blockchain and the POW required to construct it is mathematically immutable. b/c we know that the hashrate of the Bitcoin Network is thousands of times larger than most of the supercomputers on Earth makes the strategical decision making of each individual actor clear; don't cheat.

Understood, I'm more referring to the folks that are the non-participants in the game.  Lest we forget these currently vastly outnumber the participants with respect to potential game resources available to them.  Game-ending scenarios are often dismissed as impossible when in fact they are merely unlikely, as are the application of non-monetary/computing power factors.  Threats to date have generally been within the game players, and Nash applies well.

In general I not only agree but the also salute the application of the principle.  

Consider however the implications if one were to throw something like stuxnet into the works or a fab level exploit into each of the main chip makers, say by coercion or covertly, and subsequently activated?  There are defenses certainly, but it would be disruptive and could be timed with other types of interference.  Unlikely but possible.  Thankfully, we are not under serious attack or opposition, but I'd still give a BTC =~ 0 a >0 p value, and Nash holds the rest in place.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
justusranvier
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1400



View Profile WWW
August 05, 2014, 09:26:24 PM
 #10216

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2014/08/05/with-apologies-to-margaret-weis-and-tracy-hickman/
sidhujag
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288


View Profile
August 05, 2014, 10:48:13 PM
 #10217

Do we know about this one: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/ecuador-first-nation-create-digital-currency/2014/07/31

SO they ban BTC and create their own.. geniuses I tell ya!
Ivanhoe
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 841



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 10:53:19 PM
 #10218

Do we know about this one: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/ecuador-first-nation-create-digital-currency/2014/07/31

SO they ban BTC and create their own.. geniuses I tell ya!
If they instead were one of the nations who applied bitcoin... They would have had so much wealth.
sidhujag
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1288


View Profile
August 05, 2014, 10:56:50 PM
 #10219

Do we know about this one: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/ecuador-first-nation-create-digital-currency/2014/07/31

SO they ban BTC and create their own.. geniuses I tell ya!
If they instead were one of the nationale who applied bitcoin... They would have had so much wealth.

Sooner or later someone will take the plunge... but not until  a few more zero's are added to the right... right now credability within the dev community must be addressed, if the dev community can be trusted to make proper decisions, maybe someone would be interested (and perhaps say we will do it if we have our own developers control the source or something?) but anyways thats the central weakness of the open source model we have with bitcoin, its controlled by a select few and we dont have control over what they do or are coerced to maybe do.
Carlton Banks
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470



View Profile
August 05, 2014, 11:11:46 PM
 #10220

Do we know about this one: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/ecuador-first-nation-create-digital-currency/2014/07/31

SO they ban BTC and create their own.. geniuses I tell ya!

Something like that will end up as a case study for how this kind of idea can't compete with a sounder system, bring it on. But who knows whether it'll really happen, governments have been talking all tough about cryptocurrency but doing (what amounts to) nothing.

Vires in numeris
Pages: « 1 ... 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 [511] 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 ... 1560 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!