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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1840752 times)
cypherdoc
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August 05, 2014, 05:39:27 PM
 #10181

Stocks making a run to the downside...
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cypherdoc
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August 05, 2014, 05:40:43 PM
 #10182

ready for the next spurt?

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August 05, 2014, 06:09:40 PM
 #10183

nice stock dump...
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August 05, 2014, 06:11:22 PM
 #10184

Rodriguez said that the company logged one of its most active trading days on 31st July, the day after Argentina defaulted on its debt. That day saw trading activity hit a month-long high, he said.

http://www.coindesk.com/argentina-bitcoin-exchange-loses-bank-accounts/
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August 05, 2014, 06:14:34 PM
 #10185

oil back solidly sub 100 @ 97.1.

no economic activity here.
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August 05, 2014, 06:19:29 PM
 #10186

wow

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2cpew8/game_changer_bitcoin_research_at_the_federal/
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August 05, 2014, 06:24:19 PM
 #10187

There's some question about the authenticity of that posts, but assuming it's true, I can see one thing I bet his analysis missed:

Quote
Our best case scenarios are modeled upon current bitcoin adoption rates which have simulated a tipping point for the year 2026 (worst case 2021); this time frame projects the Fed (via the dollar) to lose its dominant global monetary policy maker status - instead everything will superceded by bitcoin.

The mere existence of this kind of knowledge sets up a positive feedback loop.

When the insiders know the game will be over between 2021 and 2026, some of them will start moving for the exits with a goal of being out by that time.

The actions of insiders to exit from a collapsing system by nature accelerate the process of collapse.

The insiders will notice the acceleration, and everyone who is preparing their exit will accordingly accelerate their plans. This causes further acceleration of the collapse...

If that Reddit post is true, then the tipping point will arrive much sooner than 2021.
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August 05, 2014, 06:30:56 PM
 #10188

There's some question about the authenticity of that posts, but assuming it's true, I can see one thing I bet his analysis missed:

Quote
Our best case scenarios are modeled upon current bitcoin adoption rates which have simulated a tipping point for the year 2026 (worst case 2021); this time frame projects the Fed (via the dollar) to lose its dominant global monetary policy maker status - instead everything will superceded by bitcoin.

The mere existence of this kind of knowledge sets up a positive feedback loop.

When the insiders know the game will be over between 2021 and 2026, some of them will start moving for the exits with a goal of being out by that time.

The actions of insiders to exit from a collapsing system by nature accelerate the process of collapse.

The insiders will notice the acceleration, and everyone who is preparing their exit will accordingly accelerate their plans. This causes further acceleration of the collapse...

If that Reddit post is true, then the tipping point will arrive much sooner than 2021.

I believe there is a strong likelihood that's true, but how can we be sure that these dates do not account for that?
justusranvier
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August 05, 2014, 06:37:53 PM
 #10189

how can we be sure that these dates do not account for that?
Because they can't. It would create a logical paradox.

The existence of the prediction inevitably changes the basis of the prediction.
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August 05, 2014, 06:41:50 PM
 #10190

There's some question about the authenticity of that posts, but assuming it's true, I can see one thing I bet his analysis missed:

Quote
Our best case scenarios are modeled upon current bitcoin adoption rates which have simulated a tipping point for the year 2026 (worst case 2021); this time frame projects the Fed (via the dollar) to lose its dominant global monetary policy maker status - instead everything will superceded by bitcoin.

The mere existence of this kind of knowledge sets up a positive feedback loop.

When the insiders know the game will be over between 2021 and 2026, some of them will start moving for the exits with a goal of being out by that time.

The actions of insiders to exit from a collapsing system by nature accelerate the process of collapse.

The insiders will notice the acceleration, and everyone who is preparing their exit will accordingly accelerate their plans. This causes further acceleration of the collapse...

If that Reddit post is true, then the tipping point will arrive much sooner than 2021.

i tend to believe the post.

i also think you're correct about acceleration based on the projected timeframe btwn 2021 & 2026.  but that is consistent with what many of us have given as our own time horizon for the Bitcoin phenomenon.  my outer bound has always been 2020.
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August 05, 2014, 06:43:41 PM
 #10191

how can we be sure that these dates do not account for that?
Because they can't. It would create a logical paradox.

Haha, I see what you're getting at, but certainly if the Fed just came out and said the USD will be dead sometime in the next decade and bitcoin might replace it, It still wouldn't happen overnight. There would be a date for those circumstances as well, and that would be the worst case scenario.

So, assuming they are never going to say that, and some people will dismiss this rumor, and they can delay with regulation, etc. There is some kind of date that might account for all these circumstances? I'm not a researcher, but I imagine that I would try to create different variables for all of these things, if I were...
justusranvier
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August 05, 2014, 06:47:07 PM
 #10192

Haha, I see what you're getting at, but certainly if the Fed just came out and said the USD will be dead sometime in the next decade and bitcoin might replace it, It still wouldn't happen overnight. There would be a date for those circumstances as well, and that would be the worst case scenario.

So, assuming they are never going to say that, and some people will dismiss this rumor, and they can delay with regulation, etc. There is some kind of date that might account for all these circumstances? I'm not a researcher, but I imagine that I would try to create different variables for all of these things, if I were...
It's something that can only be known in retrospect.

Once you have positive feedback loops in a system(*), you're outside the domain of linear predictions and into chaos theory.

The act of measuring the system to obtain dates introduces new knowledge, which changes behaviour, which invalidates your prior measurements.

(*)simplified, the actual mathematical conditions for chaos are a bit more involved.
justusranvier
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August 05, 2014, 06:57:59 PM
 #10193

Worth reviewing:

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/
cypherdoc
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August 05, 2014, 07:03:00 PM
 #10194

we should be bottoming soon.
Chalkbot
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August 05, 2014, 07:03:31 PM
 #10195


I read that some time ago, and assumed this is what the fed research modeling might look like. When it becomes a no lose scenario to borrow USD to buy bitcoin, then the whole thing will implode at the speed of banking.
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August 05, 2014, 07:05:37 PM
 #10196

When it becomes a no lose scenario to borrow USD to buy bitcoin, then the whole thing will implode at the speed of banking.
Since Bitcoin began trading on exchanges, how many 365 day periods exist where would you end up with a loss if you had borrowed USD at typical credit card rates, vs the number in which you'd end up with a gain?
cypherdoc
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August 05, 2014, 07:10:15 PM
 #10197


I read that some time ago, and assumed this is what the fed research modeling might look like. When it becomes a no lose scenario to borrow USD to buy bitcoin, then the whole thing will implode at the speed of banking.

i've drawn attention to this mechanism for a while now; short USD to go long Bitcoin.
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August 05, 2014, 07:10:54 PM
 #10198

It's already a no-brainer to borrow long term in USD and buy and hold BTC.

What we're waiting for to see hyperbitcoinization is for that knowledge to rapidly spread through the pool of potential borrowers.
cypherdoc
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August 05, 2014, 07:12:33 PM
 #10199

It's already a no-brainer to borrow long term in USD and buy and hold BTC.

What we're waiting for to see hyperbitcoinization is for that knowledge to rapidly spread through the pool of potential borrowers.

you keep talking like that and it's sure to happen sooner than later...

btw, this withdrawal of liquidity by the Fed tapering back QE is going to leave a lot of risk assets hanging out to dry.  the charts are lining up nicely for the next pump in Bitcoin.
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August 05, 2014, 07:16:03 PM
 #10200

40% inflation...nice.

a sovereign debt contagion needs to be considered:

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2014/07/31/argentina-default-standard-and-poors.cnnmoney
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