Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[Chalkbot]

how can we be sure that these dates do not account for that?

Because they can't. It would create a logical paradox.

Haha, I see what you're getting at, but certainly if the Fed just came out and said the USD will be dead sometime in the next decade and bitcoin might replace it, It still wouldn't happen overnight. There would be a date for those circumstances as well, and that would be the worst case scenario.

So, assuming they are never going to say that, and some people will dismiss this rumor, and they can delay with regulation, etc. There is some kind of date that might account for all these circumstances? I'm not a researcher, but I imagine that I would try to create different variables for all of these things, if I were...

[justusranvier]

Haha, I see what you're getting at, but certainly if the Fed just came out and said the USD will be dead sometime in the next decade and bitcoin might replace it, It still wouldn't happen overnight. There would be a date for those circumstances as well, and that would be the worst case scenario.

So, assuming they are never going to say that, and some people will dismiss this rumor, and they can delay with regulation, etc. There is some kind of date that might account for all these circumstances? I'm not a researcher, but I imagine that I would try to create different variables for all of these things, if I were...

It's something that can only be known in retrospect.

Once you have positive feedback loops in a system(*), you're outside the domain of linear predictions and into chaos theory.

The act of measuring the system to obtain dates introduces new knowledge, which changes behaviour, which invalidates your prior measurements.

(*)simplified, the actual mathematical conditions for chaos are a bit more involved.

[justusranvier]

Worth reviewing:

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

[cypherdoc]

we should be bottoming soon.

[Chalkbot]

Worth reviewing:

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

I read that some time ago, and assumed this is what the fed research modeling might look like. When it becomes a no lose scenario to borrow USD to buy bitcoin, then the whole thing will implode at the speed of banking.

[justusranvier]

When it becomes a no lose scenario to borrow USD to buy bitcoin, then the whole thing will implode at the speed of banking.

Since Bitcoin began trading on exchanges, how many 365 day periods exist where would you end up with a loss if you had borrowed USD at typical credit card rates, vs the number in which you'd end up with a gain?

[cypherdoc]

Worth reviewing:

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/speculative-attack/

I read that some time ago, and assumed this is what the fed research modeling might look like. When it becomes a no lose scenario to borrow USD to buy bitcoin, then the whole thing will implode at the speed of banking.

i've drawn attention to this mechanism for a while now; short USD to go long Bitcoin.

[justusranvier]

It's already a no-brainer to borrow long term in USD and buy and hold BTC.

What we're waiting for to see hyperbitcoinization is for that knowledge to rapidly spread through the pool of potential borrowers.

[cypherdoc]

It's already a no-brainer to borrow long term in USD and buy and hold BTC.

What we're waiting for to see hyperbitcoinization is for that knowledge to rapidly spread through the pool of potential borrowers.

you keep talking like that and it's sure to happen sooner than later...

btw, this withdrawal of liquidity by the Fed tapering back QE is going to leave a lot of risk assets hanging out to dry.  the charts are lining up nicely for the next pump in Bitcoin.

[cypherdoc]

40% inflation...nice.

a sovereign debt contagion needs to be considered:

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2014/07/31/argentina-default-standard-and-poors.cnnmoney

[Chalkbot]

It's already a no-brainer to borrow long term in USD and buy and hold BTC.

What we're waiting for to see hyperbitcoinization is for that knowledge to rapidly spread through the pool of potential borrowers.

This is pretty much the limiting factor. As a rough barometer, I think I saw some poll of investors recently that said ~55% of them thought bitcoin was a terrible investment, or that it was in a bubble. Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not? Is there a single event, or chain of events that would change this perception, or do we watch the number slowly fall until the remainder can't stem the tide?

[CTRLX]

Sorry for not speaking your language and forgive my noobishness, but if that reddit post is true I might want to reconsider selling Bitcoin for fiat anytime soon?

[Chalkbot]

Sorry for not speaking your language and forgive my noobishness, but if that reddit post is true I might want to reconsider selling Bitcoin for fiat anytime soon?

If I were you, I would reconsider even if it were proven false.

[cypherdoc]

Sorry for not speaking your language and forgive my noobishness, but if that reddit post is true I might want to reconsider selling Bitcoin for fiat anytime soon?

definitely

[cypherdoc]

Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?

no. we've seen perception and buying pressure rise several times during the run ups over the last several years.  ppl get MORE bullish with the price rises.  it's a feedback loop like justus was saying.  and it doesn't just exist in Bitcoin. it's true for all markets.

[CTRLX]

Sorry for not speaking your language and forgive my noobishness, but if that reddit post is true I might want to reconsider selling Bitcoin for fiat anytime soon?

If I were you, I would reconsider even if it were proven false.

Thanks, yes I am not planning on selling anytime soon, but I just wanted to check with more knowledgable people in this thread if my conclusion after reading that post was right. English is not my first language. Thank you for your reply.

[justusranvier]

This is pretty much the limiting factor. As a rough barometer, I think I saw some poll of investors recently that said ~55% of them thought bitcoin was a terrible investment, or that it was in a bubble. Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?

You want a certain number of people to remain sceptical of Bitcoin for as long as possible, especially among the people who lend USD.

Is there a single event, or chain of events that would change this perception, or do we watch the number slowly fall until the remainder can't stem the tide?

Hyperbitcoinization is the last bubble in the USD/BTC exchange rate.

All the prior speculative manias collapse when the infrastructure can no longer handle the growth and Bitcoin holders sell in order to "lock in their gains"

One of these times (we won't know which one until after the fact) the risk perception of BTC vs fiat will invert such that Bitcoin will be regarded as the safe asset. Once that happens, the bubble doesn't pop because it becomes less about the rise of Bitcoin and instead is the flight to safety away from the USD (fiat in general).

[Chalkbot]

Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?

no. we've seen perception and buying pressure rise several times during the run ups over the last several years.  ppl get MORE bullish with the price rises.  it's a feedback loop like justus was saying.  and it doesn't just exist in Bitcoin. it's true for all markets.

Yes, but if that were the only factor, than none of the previous price bubbles should have ended before completely collapsing the USD. Certainly of that (let's call it) 55% group, some of them will change their mind in a bull market, but at the same time, when there are rapid gains there is an increase in previously bullish folk changing tunes, under the pretense that we've gone too high to sustain. So an equivalent negative feedback loop?

[cypherdoc]

Further increases in value would only reinforce this position for some of those folk, would it not?

no. we've seen perception and buying pressure rise several times during the run ups over the last several years.  ppl get MORE bullish with the price rises.  it's a feedback loop like justus was saying.  and it doesn't just exist in Bitcoin. it's true for all markets.

Yes, but if that were the only factor, than none of the previous price bubbles should have ended before completely collapsing the USD. Certainly of that (let's call it) 55% group, some of them will change their mind in a bull market, but at the same time, when there are rapid gains there is an increase in previously bullish folk changing tunes, under the pretense that we've gone too high to sustain. So an equivalent negative feedback loop?

correct, it isn't the only factor.  

markets move in cycles or waves; none ever move in a straight line up.  this is why i believe there is some validity to technical analysis and i employ it routinely.  but i also rely on the fundamentals.  there are always periods of bullishness and bearishness which we will continue to see.  

and then there's trend and the trend in Bitcoin has clearly been up.  

[cypherdoc]

a 2nd leaker.  things aren't going so well for the NSA:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/05/politics/u-s-new-leaker/index.html