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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805843 times)
vuduchyld
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August 05, 2014, 03:46:20 AM
 #10161

I do small business valuations as part of my job.  I'd discount them to 2 BTC if I could get people to pay me that way.  Or 600 XMR.
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cypherdoc
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August 05, 2014, 04:17:51 AM
 #10162

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August 05, 2014, 04:23:31 AM
 #10163

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August 05, 2014, 04:24:18 AM
 #10164

i wish i was in this stock mkt:

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August 05, 2014, 05:11:28 AM
 #10165

i wish i was in this stock mkt:



it's ok, we'll all be looking at a similar chart here soon.  Wink

"In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is king."
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August 05, 2014, 05:11:44 AM
 #10166



Thats some massive pips!! wonder what the spread is.
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August 05, 2014, 05:17:32 AM
 #10167

it looks to me that mining would be best described as being in a Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium - cypherdoc
Highlights are mine:


"A pure strategy Nash equilibrium is a profile of strategies such that each player’s (miner's) strategy is a best response ((results in the highest available payoff (block reward)) against the equilibrium strategies of the other players (miners).

A pure strategy Nash equilibrium only requires that the action taken by each agent (miner) be best against the actual equilibrium actions taken by the other players (miners), and not necessarily against all possible actions of the other players (miners). In other words, it's expected for some miners to be malicious.

A Nash equilibrium has the nice property that it is stable: if each player expects 'a' to be the profile of actions played, then no player (miner) has any incentive to change his or her action (no incentive to start cheating). In other words, no player (miner) regrets having played the action that he or she played in a Nash equilibrium.
"

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1968579

Nice. I hadn't looked at it that way but it makes perfect sense.


Nash equilibrium works well in theory, the real world is a little more messy.
Pre-mass adoption there are so many outside interests seeking bitcoin failure that there are other incentives at play.
Once there is more distribution and buy in, the full effects of the Nash Equilibrium will be much stronger than they are today.


Wasn't Nash's basic premise also that you win and lose as a team in that if you have actors (miners) competing to achieve the same goal (bitcoin block reward) then it is favourable to act as a team to achieve that goal rather than individually? So doesn't that mean to collude with each other to try to get the block as team (or 51% attack a network as a team to push it to an extreme?), because it doesn't make sense to try to do it individually.

Or maybe its just that the team notion he talks about is analogous to mining pools working to try to get that carrot, and the size of the pools is a side-affect of the size of the teams which is an external byproduct of an unregulated ecosystem.
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August 05, 2014, 01:55:57 PM
 #10168

everything down except USD.

silver dipped below $20; again.

what will happen to BTC if we go into a recession or get another stock mkt crash?  i say UP until proven otherwise.  it should act as a safe haven.  altho i could be wrong.
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August 05, 2014, 02:02:05 PM
 #10169

if you feel bad about Bitcoin, feel worse about silver and gold.

at least Bitcoin is still above support:

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August 05, 2014, 02:05:08 PM
 #10170

Dow clearly in a short term sell signal.  Breaking down thru support:

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August 05, 2014, 02:10:21 PM
 #10171

in the last crisis, both USD and UST rallied, somewhat inexplicably.

in the next crisis, which is bound to come and may be here right now, i doubt the same will happen.  there's been too much degradation and moral hazard on the part of the US.  probably only one will rally, if we have to have one at all.  if i had to choose which would rally, it would be the USD as opposed to UST's.  why?  b/c UST's have been in a huge 34 yr rally as reflected in falling interest rates due to either real deflation (controversial) or manipulation.  it's time for them to roll and could be a shorting opportunity altho you'd have to be real careful about that.
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August 05, 2014, 02:15:18 PM
 #10172

silver dipping hard; $19.92
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August 05, 2014, 02:17:52 PM
 #10173

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/496661306729328640
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August 05, 2014, 02:20:45 PM
 #10174

USD making a strong breakout move above resistance.

this is a wake up call for anyone in risk assets.  is Bitcoin a risk asset?  maybe, but i don't think so.

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August 05, 2014, 03:58:24 PM
 #10175

Warren Buffett hords 50 billion cash waiting for bubble to burst
http://etfdailynews.com/2014/08/04/warren-buffett-sits-on-50-billion-cash-hoard-waiting-for-bubbles-to-pop/
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August 05, 2014, 04:36:31 PM
 #10176

miners breaking down below support confirming silver BD which lead in this case:



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August 05, 2014, 04:57:32 PM
 #10177

imo, as long as we stay above support @ 554, we're good.

unlike other markets which have broken their support levels:

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August 05, 2014, 05:07:53 PM
 #10178

The Fed cut the monthly pace of bond-buying by $10 billion for a sixth time on July 30. That brought purchases to $25 billion, from $85 billion last year, on pace to end the program by October.

Liquidity is disappearing from markets.  They don't like it.
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August 05, 2014, 05:18:21 PM
 #10179

i love this tool.

it's a Dynamic Yield Curve for UST's.  it's quite helpful in seeing the interaction of UST's and the stock mkt.  note that in 2007, we got a yield curve inversion which historically has been pretty reliable in forecasting a recession.  nowadays, with the short end pinned at essentially 0, we can't even get an inversion as a warning of bad things to come.  just another indication of how badly the Fed has distorted the mkt:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php
HeliKopterBen
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August 05, 2014, 05:18:52 PM
 #10180

The Fed cut the monthly pace of bond-buying by $10 billion for a sixth time on July 30. That brought purchases to $25 billion, from $85 billion last year, on pace to end the program by October.

Liquidity is disappearing from markets.  They don't like it.

Now they can only buy 3.25 bitcoin markets per month.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
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