Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

16000 crossed 9x today.

That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked.

along with the end of day ramp.  altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was.

it can get truly ridiculous.

Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm.

Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy.

My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times.

[1714102096]

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[1714102096]

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[1714102096]

1714102096

[1714102096]

1714102096

[1714102096]

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[Bagatell]

Do you follow Soros at all?

George Soros Is Betting on This Risky Stock: Should You?

[sidhujag]

16000 crossed 9x today.

That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked.

along with the end of day ramp.  altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was.

it can get truly ridiculous.

Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm.

Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy.

My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times.

Aside from the manipulations I came up with an option strategy that would take advantage of the volatility of the market opens/closes... essentially capatilizing on the fact that the theta did not price in volatility at market open on days where options were set to expire in 2 to 3 weeks and previous days didnt have crazy volume. Essentially you would straddle both sides and sell the profitable side once you double up or more depending on what time it is.... and then hold the losing side until expiry or you see fit as a free trade... idea is you would hit homeruns with no risk other than the theta of the option but you are only holding for a few hours so the theta vs the potential to have unlimited gains was a win win for me... I did some paper trades and noticed that alot of mornings the theta would drastically change and gave up but I know its a killer strategy as out of 10 days it would give me more than half profitable days (an edge)... I just didn't have the time to really automate it or put a large sum of cash in an exchange to try it out.. would mean getting up at 5am every morning too so I left it for a rainy day... wonder if anyone has had experience with a system like it? I know some start up trading firm in NY was highlighted after it raked in millions for doing something very similar.

[cypherdoc]

16000 crossed 9x today.

That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked.

along with the end of day ramp.  altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was.

it can get truly ridiculous.

Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm.

Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy.

My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times.

Aside from the manipulations I came up with an option strategy that would take advantage of the volatility of the market opens/closes... essentially capatilizing on the fact that the theta did not price in volatility at market open on days where options were set to expire in 2 to 3 weeks and previous days didnt have crazy volume. Essentially you would straddle both sides and sell the profitable side once you double up or more depending on what time it is.... and then hold the losing side until expiry or you see fit as a free trade... idea is you would hit homeruns with no risk other than the theta of the option but you are only holding for a few hours so the theta vs the potential to have unlimited gains was a win win for me... I did some paper trades and noticed that alot of mornings the theta would drastically change and gave up but I know its a killer strategy as out of 10 days it would give me more than half profitable days (an edge)... I just didn't have the time to really automate it or put a large sum of cash in an exchange to try it out.. would mean getting up at 5am every morning too so I left it for a rainy day... wonder if anyone has had experience with a system like it? I know some start up trading firm in NY was highlighted after it raked in millions for doing something very similar.

i don't trade options as i'm very averse to time pressure.  of course, the flipside of that is i'm exposed to infinite losses in either direction if i'm stubborn.  i prefer to rely on a mixture of fundamentals and swing trading using cycles and other assorted indicators. 

as far as your theta trade, i've never understood how taking both sides of a trade and then selling the profitable one is any different than just shorting or buying a put after the underlying has gone up 2x or so.

there are all sorts of strategies like this and they usually work until they don't.

[cypherdoc]

Do you follow Soros at all?

George Soros Is Betting on This Risky Stock: Should You?

no

[cypherdoc]

16000 crossed 9x today.

That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked.

along with the end of day ramp.  altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was.

it can get truly ridiculous.

Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm.

Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy.

My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times.

just to be clear, this is why i know the stock market is irrational and seldom reflects real valuations.  300-500 pt ramps repeatedly in the face of rumors that never came true have solidified this principle in my mind.

i'm going to sit out this stock mkt volatility as i can't tell you how relieved i am to be in invested in a math based fixed supply currency.  yes, it's volatile at times (but that's only b/c it's 5.5 yo) and prone to manipulation as well but not nearly as bad as the stock mkt.

[zeetubes]

They shouldn't be called markets anymore.

[justusranvier]

They shouldn't be called markets anymore.

Theatres, maybe.

Or this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjedLeVGcfE

[Pruden]

Based on breadth of the last drop, I will dare calling the stawks dip over.

If I had to keep something from these days, it is the defeat of the crowd who knew nothing about correlation and insisted the stock market went together with BTC based on 5 years of bull market in perfect coincidence with the life of a new, transparent, groundbreaking math-based asset class.

[sidhujag]

16000 crossed 9x today.

That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked.

along with the end of day ramp.  altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was.

it can get truly ridiculous.

Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm.

Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy.

My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times.

Aside from the manipulations I came up with an option strategy that would take advantage of the volatility of the market opens/closes... essentially capatilizing on the fact that the theta did not price in volatility at market open on days where options were set to expire in 2 to 3 weeks and previous days didnt have crazy volume. Essentially you would straddle both sides and sell the profitable side once you double up or more depending on what time it is.... and then hold the losing side until expiry or you see fit as a free trade... idea is you would hit homeruns with no risk other than the theta of the option but you are only holding for a few hours so the theta vs the potential to have unlimited gains was a win win for me... I did some paper trades and noticed that alot of mornings the theta would drastically change and gave up but I know its a killer strategy as out of 10 days it would give me more than half profitable days (an edge)... I just didn't have the time to really automate it or put a large sum of cash in an exchange to try it out.. would mean getting up at 5am every morning too so I left it for a rainy day... wonder if anyone has had experience with a system like it? I know some start up trading firm in NY was highlighted after it raked in millions for doing something very similar.

i don't trade options as i'm very averse to time pressure.  of course, the flipside of that is i'm exposed to infinite losses in either direction if i'm stubborn.  i prefer to rely on a mixture of fundamentals and swing trading using cycles and other assorted indicators.  

as far as your theta trade, i've never understood how taking both sides of a trade and then selling the profitable one is any different than just shorting or buying a put after the underlying has gone up 2x or so.

there are all sorts of strategies like this and they usually work until they don't.

You didn't get it.. you're straddled so you CANT have infinite losses. Equity curve should look like a slight downward slope then big spikes up... that's a successful curve in my eyes with low risk.. however I dont know I think that more people doing this type of thing increases theta so much as market open that it removes any profit from the 2 hours that there is volume.

Long term traders will tell you to cut your losses short and let the runners run... thus you're losses are the fees for opening the trades and closing from no movement and your runners are the free trades that you got from closing your winning side of the straddle at aggregate breakeven or in profit.

[cypherdoc]

16000 crossed 9x today.

That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked.

along with the end of day ramp.  altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was.

it can get truly ridiculous.

Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm.

Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy.

My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times.

Aside from the manipulations I came up with an option strategy that would take advantage of the volatility of the market opens/closes... essentially capatilizing on the fact that the theta did not price in volatility at market open on days where options were set to expire in 2 to 3 weeks and previous days didnt have crazy volume. Essentially you would straddle both sides and sell the profitable side once you double up or more depending on what time it is.... and then hold the losing side until expiry or you see fit as a free trade... idea is you would hit homeruns with no risk other than the theta of the option but you are only holding for a few hours so the theta vs the potential to have unlimited gains was a win win for me... I did some paper trades and noticed that alot of mornings the theta would drastically change and gave up but I know its a killer strategy as out of 10 days it would give me more than half profitable days (an edge)... I just didn't have the time to really automate it or put a large sum of cash in an exchange to try it out.. would mean getting up at 5am every morning too so I left it for a rainy day... wonder if anyone has had experience with a system like it? I know some start up trading firm in NY was highlighted after it raked in millions for doing something very similar.

i don't trade options as i'm very averse to time pressure.  of course, the flipside of that is i'm exposed to infinite losses in either direction if i'm stubborn.  i prefer to rely on a mixture of fundamentals and swing trading using cycles and other assorted indicators.  

as far as your theta trade, i've never understood how taking both sides of a trade and then selling the profitable one is any different than just shorting or buying a put after the underlying has gone up 2x or so.

there are all sorts of strategies like this and they usually work until they don't.

You didn't get it.. you're straddled so you CANT have infinite losses. Equity curve should look like a slight downward slope then big spikes up... that's a successful curve in my eyes with low risk.. however I dont know I think that more people doing this type of thing increases theta so much as market open that it removes any profit from the 2 hours that there is volume.

Long term traders will tell you to cut your losses short and let the runners run... thus you're losses are the fees for opening the trades and closing from no movement and your runners are the free trades that you got from closing your winning side of the straddle at aggregate breakeven or in profit.

i wasn't referring to your straddle when i said that i am exposed to infinite losses via long term trading.

i think i understand what you're saying regarding your theta trade.  it presumes a repeating pattern of 6h or so of downward movement with a late day ramp?  you set up the straddle at the open, let them market grind down until your put has approx doubled or whatever, cover the put, and then wait for the last half hour spike?

my point was, why not just buy 2h before the close?

[sidhujag]

16000 crossed 9x today.

That was a nice call on 16K you made earlier. The fed is the only thing between DOW 16k and DOW 3K, where it should probably be about now. I'm pretty sure they'll keep it above 16K today but they're going to be busy tonight wondering what the hell to do in Asia and Europe. Every time the DOW dips, someone is moving significant money out and the fed is pumping money back in using one of its many hidden channels. I wonder where the money that's taken out is being parked.

along with the end of day ramp.  altho it those ramps can get even more intense than it was.

it can get truly ridiculous.

Yup. It would be an interesting exercise to look at the last seven years of DOW history and work out on days when it was both down and falling at 3.30pm what you would make if you had invested at ~3.35pm and then pulled out at ~3.55pm.

Back in 2008,someone did that study, or something very similar; buying/selling in the last half hour or so based on some such strategy.

My favorite one; wait for the Warren Buffett rumor to come out hinting that he was going to buy out Hovnanian, or some other tanking home builder. Guaranteed for a 300 point ramp in 10 minutes. Must have happened half a dozen times.

Aside from the manipulations I came up with an option strategy that would take advantage of the volatility of the market opens/closes... essentially capatilizing on the fact that the theta did not price in volatility at market open on days where options were set to expire in 2 to 3 weeks and previous days didnt have crazy volume. Essentially you would straddle both sides and sell the profitable side once you double up or more depending on what time it is.... and then hold the losing side until expiry or you see fit as a free trade... idea is you would hit homeruns with no risk other than the theta of the option but you are only holding for a few hours so the theta vs the potential to have unlimited gains was a win win for me... I did some paper trades and noticed that alot of mornings the theta would drastically change and gave up but I know its a killer strategy as out of 10 days it would give me more than half profitable days (an edge)... I just didn't have the time to really automate it or put a large sum of cash in an exchange to try it out.. would mean getting up at 5am every morning too so I left it for a rainy day... wonder if anyone has had experience with a system like it? I know some start up trading firm in NY was highlighted after it raked in millions for doing something very similar.

i don't trade options as i'm very averse to time pressure.  of course, the flipside of that is i'm exposed to infinite losses in either direction if i'm stubborn.  i prefer to rely on a mixture of fundamentals and swing trading using cycles and other assorted indicators.  

as far as your theta trade, i've never understood how taking both sides of a trade and then selling the profitable one is any different than just shorting or buying a put after the underlying has gone up 2x or so.

there are all sorts of strategies like this and they usually work until they don't.

You didn't get it.. you're straddled so you CANT have infinite losses. Equity curve should look like a slight downward slope then big spikes up... that's a successful curve in my eyes with low risk.. however I dont know I think that more people doing this type of thing increases theta so much as market open that it removes any profit from the 2 hours that there is volume.

Long term traders will tell you to cut your losses short and let the runners run... thus you're losses are the fees for opening the trades and closing from no movement and your runners are the free trades that you got from closing your winning side of the straddle at aggregate breakeven or in profit.

i wasn't referring to your straddle when i said that i am exposed to infinite losses via long term trading.

i think i understand what you're saying regarding your theta trade.  it presumes a repeating pattern of 6h or so of downward movement with a late day ramp?  you set up the straddle at the open, let them market grind down until your put has approx doubled or whatever, cover the put, and then wait for the last half hour spike?

my point was, why not just buy 2h before the close?

The value of the option drops dramatically overnight (also most of the time the market doesn't move enough at the end, but maybe you can buy during the midday lull and sell right at close as a similar strategy)... in the morning it is reflected on open... so you would only buy before close if you think premarket will move the price of the underlying considerably like maybe on unexpected earnings., thus you're opening up to a bigger loss on your theta... I would essentially do the opposite buy on open and double up in the first few hours and cut loose, let the other side run indefinitely OR if there is a late day plunge/rally. Anyways when I thought about this, ther weren't any good historical options charts that were any good to backtest... so I couldnt test my strategy using code... but maybe something to think about when I have some time.. end of day everyone has their own strategy that works the best for them based on their personality.. thats why you can take a winning strategy from person A and have person B lose wildly because it doesn't match their philosophies.

It really is just a play on volatility.. put simply.

[cypherdoc]

CDS 5y signals danger:







even the US.  see that little hook up at the end?:

[cypherdoc]

way to go Greece.  anyone with a long term chart?

[cypherdoc]

great to hear EFF supporting Bitcoin:

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/10/beware-bitlicense-new-yorks-virtual-currency-regulations-invade-privacy-and-hamper

[iCEBREAKER]

great to hear EFF supporting Bitcoin:

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/10/beware-bitlicense-new-yorks-virtual-currency-regulations-invade-privacy-and-hamper

You mean FINALLY "supporting Bitcoin."     How nice of them to come so late to the party, after eschewing icky nasty Bitcoin for so long....

Like Wikipedia, the EFF pretends to be in the socio-technological vanguard, but in reality lost that status back in the late 90s.

If the EFF and Wiki had simply hled the BTC people were begging them to accept for many years, they would have millions.

Instead they acted exactly like the reactionary fuddy duds they used to oppose, and are reduced to begging via obnoxious banner ads and spam emails.

Fuck the EFF and fuck Wikipedia. 

Both sclerotic organizations need to be starved of donations until they die and are replaced by more (classically) liberal, forward-thinking organizations, just as the limpid NRA has been surpassed in effectiveness by the SAF and GOA.

[sidhujag]

great to hear EFF supporting Bitcoin:

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/10/beware-bitlicense-new-yorks-virtual-currency-regulations-invade-privacy-and-hamper

You mean FINALLY "supporting Bitcoin."     How nice of them to come so late to the party, after eschewing icky nasty Bitcoin for so long....

Like Wikipedia, the EFF pretends to be in the socio-technological vanguard, but in reality lost that status back in the late 90s.

If the EFF and Wiki had simply hled the BTC people were begging them to accept for many years, they would have millions.

Instead they acted exactly like the reactionary fuddy duds they used to oppose, and are reduced to begging via obnoxious banner ads and spam emails.

Fuck the EFF and fuck Wikipedia. 

Both sclerotic organizations need to be starved of donations until they die and are replaced by more (classically) liberal, forward-thinking organizations, just as the limpid NRA has been surpassed in effectiveness by the SAF and GOA.

Didn't wikipedia get something like ten's of thousands of bitcoins from that guy who had hundreds of K and gave them all away when they were relatively cheap? I suppose they sold them off later when they hit $50 or something?

[Melbustus]

great to hear EFF supporting Bitcoin:

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/10/beware-bitlicense-new-yorks-virtual-currency-regulations-invade-privacy-and-hamper

You mean FINALLY "supporting Bitcoin."     How nice of them to come so late to the party, after eschewing icky nasty Bitcoin for so long....

Like Wikipedia, the EFF pretends to be in the socio-technological vanguard, but in reality lost that status back in the late 90s.

If the EFF and Wiki had simply hled the BTC people were begging them to accept for many years, they would have millions.

Instead they acted exactly like the reactionary fuddy duds they used to oppose, and are reduced to begging via obnoxious banner ads and spam emails.

Fuck the EFF and fuck Wikipedia. 

Both sclerotic organizations need to be starved of donations until they die and are replaced by more (classically) liberal, forward-thinking organizations, just as the limpid NRA has been surpassed in effectiveness by the SAF and GOA.

Didn't wikipedia get something like ten's of thousands of bitcoins from that guy who had hundreds of K and gave them all away when they were relatively cheap? I suppose they sold them off later when they hit $50 or something?

The Wikimedia Foundation began accepting bitcoin donations on July 30, 2014: https://blog.wikimedia.org/2014/07/30/wikimedia-foundation-now-accepts-bitcoin/

[sidhujag]

great to hear EFF supporting Bitcoin:

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2014/10/beware-bitlicense-new-yorks-virtual-currency-regulations-invade-privacy-and-hamper

You mean FINALLY "supporting Bitcoin."    How nice of them to come so late to the party, after eschewing icky nasty Bitcoin for so long....

Like Wikipedia, the EFF pretends to be in the socio-technological vanguard, but in reality lost that status back in the late 90s.

If the EFF and Wiki had simply hled the BTC people were begging them to accept for many years, they would have millions.

Instead they acted exactly like the reactionary fuddy duds they used to oppose, and are reduced to begging via obnoxious banner ads and spam emails.

Fuck the EFF and fuck Wikipedia.  

Both sclerotic organizations need to be starved of donations until they die and are replaced by more (classically) liberal, forward-thinking organizations, just as the limpid NRA has been surpassed in effectiveness by the SAF and GOA.

Didn't wikipedia get something like ten's of thousands of bitcoins from that guy who had hundreds of K and gave them all away when they were relatively cheap? I suppose they sold them off later when they hit $50 or something?

The Wikimedia Foundation began accepting bitcoin donations on July 30, 2014: https://blog.wikimedia.org/2014/07/30/wikimedia-foundation-now-accepts-bitcoin/

I thought there was a guy who gave away thousands to them already... cant google it... somewhere on this forum.

[cypherdoc]

mother f*ckin A.  this is exactly what Aaron Swartz killed himself over.  yet MIT stood by and did nothing during his torment by the FBI:

The memo from Harvard's faculty advisory council said major publishers had created an "untenable situation" at the university by making scholarly interaction "fiscally unsustainable" and "academically restrictive", while drawing profits of 35% or more. Prices for online access to articles from two major publishers have increased 145% over the past six years, with some journals costing as much as $40,000, the memo said.

More than 10,000 academics have already joined a boycott of Elsevier, the huge Dutch publisher, in protest at its journal pricing and access policies. Many university libraries pay more than half of their journal budgets to the publishers Elsevier, Springer and Wiley.

Robert Darnton, director of Harvard Library told the Guardian: "I hope that other universities will take similar action. We all face the same paradox. We faculty do the research, write the papers, referee papers by other researchers, serve on editorial boards, all of it for free … and then we buy back the results of our labour at outrageous prices.

"The system is absurd, and it is inflicting terrible damage on libraries. One year's subscription to The Journal of Comparative Neurology costs the same as 300 monographs. We simply cannot go on paying the increase in subscription prices. In the long run, the answer will be open-access journal publishing, but we need concerted effort to reach that goal."

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/apr/24/harvard-university-journal-publishers-prices

if you haven't watched this video, you need to.  such a sad story:

The Internet's Own Boy: The Story of Aaron Swartz

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXr-2hwTk58

note the 14 yo kid at the end of the video who discovered a cure for pancreatic cancer due to the release of the medical literature by Aaron.