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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2009527 times)
cypherdoc
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September 29, 2014, 05:03:16 PM
 #12961

major silver miner PAAS heading down:

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September 29, 2014, 05:13:49 PM
 #12962

Fear continuing to rise on the S&P:

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September 29, 2014, 05:18:51 PM
 #12963

Bitcoin's killer app is hope.  What other technology/investment can give young people all over the world as much hope for a better future as bitcoin?

...and hope is magnified by the fear it relieves.  There are plenty of sources generating reasonable fears everywhere.  Why not be prepared?

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September 29, 2014, 05:24:48 PM
 #12964

good article by Nicholas Colas about the importance of volatility as it applies to stocks.  but the same can be said for Bitcoin:

The problem is that volatility is actually important to the proper functioning of capital markets. In fact, it is critical to both effective societal asset allocation and as a way to judge the skill of managers on Wall Street and Main Street alike. It isn’t just price levels that define capitalism; it is the correlated spectrums of risk and return from sure bets to highly speculative ventures that keeps the machine running smoothly. The journey really is just as important as the destination.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-29/can-us-economy-handle-meaningful-downturn-financial-asset-prices
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September 29, 2014, 05:34:40 PM
 #12965

...

Bitcoin's killer app is hope.  What other technology/investment can give young people all over the world as much hope for a better future as bitcoin?



Indeed. I'd phrase it a little differently, and assert that bitcoin is fundamentally optimistic. It's optimistic to assume that people can get together, from the ground up, and bootstrap a completely new, completely free, completely transparent global financial system. It's optimistic to believe that humanity will see and feel its value, and embrace it of their own free will.

But I'm an optimist. I believe that technology improves lives, and that the long-run trend in human civilization is toward more efficient and more free systems. 

Plus, the pessimists generally don't show up in the history books.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
Cryptoasset rankings and metrics for investors: http://onchainfx.com
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September 29, 2014, 05:51:59 PM
 #12966

USD/JPY continuing to rise:

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September 29, 2014, 06:20:08 PM
 #12967

Circle open access to easy Bitcoin is a big deal.

and if you believe in big fractals, percentages, and timing, now's not a bad time.

I just noticed that tomorrow is the anniversary of the capitulation bottom to $140 (gox) that started the next run up...

looks like it was 10/2/13, the date of the SR takedown.

whoever sold on that news missed out big time.  it was a huge, unintuitive reversal.
one more catalyst like that ought to do it.  Perhaps a plea deal and sale of remaining SR coins or announced sale of Gox coins.  If BFL was bigger their shutdown could have been it.  Although the moves of most manufactures into pre-order and cloud BS feels like that's bottoming out as well. 
molecular
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September 29, 2014, 07:25:57 PM
 #12968

Wow, it's been years since I read this thread, so I picked a random page a month back or so -- all very serious, lots of graphs and some interesting discussion (although in hindsight, some pretty off whack predictions).  Then I skip forward to 'now' and it's people calling each other cocksuckers --unbelievable.

hehe. made me laugh.

it's actually a good sign, though.

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September 29, 2014, 07:32:57 PM
 #12969

i remember that SR event like it was yesterday. im sitting in the same seat as i was last year too. t'was amazing. took a gamble and made a sweet btc bankroll boost of +10% in an hr and then had the joy of watching the rocket take off. just another magical day in bitcoin trading. i wonder how many people truly sold (without buying back). poor schmucks.
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September 29, 2014, 07:44:36 PM
 #12970

i remember that SR event like it was yesterday. im sitting in the same seat as i was last year too. t'was amazing. took a gamble and made a sweet btc bankroll boost of +10% in an hr and then had the joy of watching the rocket take off. just another magical day in bitcoin trading. i wonder how many people truly sold (without buying back). poor schmucks.

Answer: alot

I  remember sitting at my piano when the news rolled across the feeds. The bearish case was so compelling; Bitcoin loses its biggest user! The price tanked like a bitch triggering all sorts of stops at 100, but promptly turned right around within hours and began the rocket launch. Believe me,  when people make snap decisions to sell like that under pressure, they don't buy back in quickly, if at all. 
cypherdoc
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September 29, 2014, 07:57:13 PM
 #12971

Wow, it's been years since I read this thread, so I picked a random page a month back or so -- all very serious, lots of graphs and some interesting discussion (although in hindsight, some pretty off whack predictions).  Then I skip forward to 'now' and it's people calling each other cocksuckers --unbelievable.

hehe. made me laugh.

it's actually a good sign, though.

You could almost use me as an indicator Wink

when the anti-cypherdoc tone reaches a feverish pitch, we must be close to a bottom. Just look here:  Warning: How many of you have been a victim of a short squeeze?

Think about it. Anyone who has conviction, be it bullish or bearish for the long term,  is going to look ridiculous for long periods of time when price goes against them. The traces are so long and deep in either direction sentiment has a chance to swing all the way to the opposite end of the spectrum.

The only way not to look foolish is to shut up and not say anything during the anti- move, which I'm not willing to do.
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September 29, 2014, 08:02:33 PM
 #12972

Circle may be a game changer.  You can sign-up on your phone from anywhere and purchase your first bitcoins with your credit card within minutes.  The fact that they use mandatory 2FA (via SMS by default) also makes me feel better about recommending this service to acquaintances.  Should COIN launch this winter, then the fiat <---> bitcoin gateway infrastructure will be ripe to support another wave of adoption.  

I still maintain the impact of COIN is being grossly underestimated. The vast majority of "investment dollars" do not sit on bank accounts linked to coinbase or credit card limits linked to circle.

Instead most funds sit in brokerage accounts. During the run where I made most of my purchases, my biggest obstacle was wiring funds from my Brokerage account to my Bank account, so then I could issue a coinbase purchase. Since I see bitcoin as a core asset to hold, this was completely backwards.

COIN will link brokerage accounts to bitcoin, there is a huge amount of funds there....
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September 29, 2014, 08:29:16 PM
 #12973

Circle may be a game changer.  You can sign-up on your phone from anywhere and purchase your first bitcoins with your credit card within minutes.  The fact that they use mandatory 2FA (via SMS by default) also makes me feel better about recommending this service to acquaintances.  Should COIN launch this winter, then the fiat <---> bitcoin gateway infrastructure will be ripe to support another wave of adoption.  

I still maintain the impact of COIN is being grossly underestimated. The vast majority of "investment dollars" do not sit on bank accounts linked to coinbase or credit card limits linked to circle.

Instead most funds sit in brokerage accounts. During the run where I made most of my purchases, my biggest obstacle was wiring funds from by Brokerage account to my Bank account, so then I could issue a coinbase purchase. Since I see bitcoin as a core asset to hold, this was completely backwards.

COIN will link brokerage accounts to bitcoin, there is a huge amount of funds there....

Yeah, COIN will open up Bitcoin to an ocean of fiat. NASDAQ has been putting some Bitcoin friendly articles on their website. I hope to see COIN open this year but it may take until 2015 maybe around Feb?
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September 29, 2014, 08:52:05 PM
 #12974

Circle may be a game changer.  You can sign-up on your phone from anywhere and purchase your first bitcoins with your credit card within minutes.  The fact that they use mandatory 2FA (via SMS by default) also makes me feel better about recommending this service to acquaintances.  Should COIN launch this winter, then the fiat <---> bitcoin gateway infrastructure will be ripe to support another wave of adoption.  

I still maintain the impact of COIN is being grossly underestimated. The vast majority of "investment dollars" do not sit on bank accounts linked to coinbase or credit card limits linked to circle.

Instead most funds sit in brokerage accounts. During the run where I made most of my purchases, my biggest obstacle was wiring funds from by Brokerage account to my Bank account, so then I could issue a coinbase purchase. Since I see bitcoin as a core asset to hold, this was completely backwards.

COIN will link brokerage accounts to bitcoin, there is a huge amount of funds there....

Is COIN winklevoss etf? Anything that has you pay via credit card for bitcoins can have charge-back issues?

★☆★Syscoin - Decentralized Marketplace and Multisig Platform
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rocks
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September 29, 2014, 09:04:28 PM
 #12975

Circle may be a game changer.  You can sign-up on your phone from anywhere and purchase your first bitcoins with your credit card within minutes.  The fact that they use mandatory 2FA (via SMS by default) also makes me feel better about recommending this service to acquaintances.  Should COIN launch this winter, then the fiat <---> bitcoin gateway infrastructure will be ripe to support another wave of adoption.  

I still maintain the impact of COIN is being grossly underestimated. The vast majority of "investment dollars" do not sit on bank accounts linked to coinbase or credit card limits linked to circle.

Instead most funds sit in brokerage accounts. During the run where I made most of my purchases, my biggest obstacle was wiring funds from by Brokerage account to my Bank account, so then I could issue a coinbase purchase. Since I see bitcoin as a core asset to hold, this was completely backwards.

COIN will link brokerage accounts to bitcoin, there is a huge amount of funds there....

Is COIN winklevoss etf? Anything that has you pay via credit card for bitcoins can have charge-back issues?

Yes, COIN is the Winklevoss ETF.

For credit card purchases through Circle, it is Circle that bears the risk of charge-back issues. Once they've transferred BTC to you, it's yours. This is why Coinbase has so many verifications in place and other issues. It's not clear to me how circle is going to mitigate charge-back challenges. In the end they might be passed onto (honest) end customers.  
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September 29, 2014, 09:24:15 PM
 #12976

Circle may be a game changer.  You can sign-up on your phone from anywhere and purchase your first bitcoins with your credit card within minutes.  The fact that they use mandatory 2FA (via SMS by default) also makes me feel better about recommending this service to acquaintances.  Should COIN launch this winter, then the fiat <---> bitcoin gateway infrastructure will be ripe to support another wave of adoption.  

I still maintain the impact of COIN is being grossly underestimated. The vast majority of "investment dollars" do not sit on bank accounts linked to coinbase or credit card limits linked to circle.

Instead most funds sit in brokerage accounts. During the run where I made most of my purchases, my biggest obstacle was wiring funds from my Brokerage account to my Bank account, so then I could issue a coinbase purchase. Since I see bitcoin as a core asset to hold, this was completely backwards.

COIN will link brokerage accounts to bitcoin, there is a huge amount of funds there....

there is also a huge difference in that you do not actually own bitcoins but COIN shares.

sure some institutional investors might not care. but you are then only "invested" in the Bitcoin economy and not necessarily own an actual share it in. which is perfectly fine, but still....


(I have to say I might be wrong. Could you claim your share in COIN for its equivalent in BTC? I do not think so but maybe someone can confirm.)

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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September 29, 2014, 09:38:43 PM
 #12977

Circle may be a game changer.  You can sign-up on your phone from anywhere and purchase your first bitcoins with your credit card within minutes.  The fact that they use mandatory 2FA (via SMS by default) also makes me feel better about recommending this service to acquaintances.  Should COIN launch this winter, then the fiat <---> bitcoin gateway infrastructure will be ripe to support another wave of adoption.  

I still maintain the impact of COIN is being grossly underestimated. The vast majority of "investment dollars" do not sit on bank accounts linked to coinbase or credit card limits linked to circle.

Instead most funds sit in brokerage accounts. During the run where I made most of my purchases, my biggest obstacle was wiring funds from my Brokerage account to my Bank account, so then I could issue a coinbase purchase. Since I see bitcoin as a core asset to hold, this was completely backwards.

COIN will link brokerage accounts to bitcoin, there is a huge amount of funds there....

there is also a huge difference in that you do not actually own bitcoins but COIN shares.

sure some institutional investors might not care. but you are then only "invested" in the Bitcoin economy and not necessarily own an actual share it in. which is perfectly fine, but still....


(I have to say I might be wrong. Could you claim your share in COIN for its equivalent in BTC? I do not think so but maybe someone can confirm.)

I think the shares will be used to purchase BTC so it will roughly track the price of bitcoin. This is at the owners descretion.... so you may see cases where it does not track it. Simply put if its not making money people will not buy shares... but dividends should be offered to entice people to buy shares rather than bitcoin... thats how I kind of guess it works anyway on top of my head knowing how equities work. Because its backed by a regulated exchange, many people will simply hold the shares collecting dividends rather than bitcoin because you would get value on the way up (roughly) and collect interest. For me, personally I prefer to hold bitAssets once the pegs are known to work in bitshares as this will collect me more interest and I own it in a decentralized system rather than depend on a stock exchange susceptible to the pitfals of our modern economy... can happen overnight... its a tradeoff either way.

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For more visit Syscoin.org  ★☆★
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September 29, 2014, 09:45:21 PM
 #12978

Deleveraging, What Deleveraging? The 16th Geneva Report on the World Economy


http://www.voxeu.org/article/geneva-report-global-deleveraging
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September 29, 2014, 09:53:06 PM
 #12979

Circle may be a game changer.  You can sign-up on your phone from anywhere and purchase your first bitcoins with your credit card within minutes.  The fact that they use mandatory 2FA (via SMS by default) also makes me feel better about recommending this service to acquaintances.  Should COIN launch this winter, then the fiat <---> bitcoin gateway infrastructure will be ripe to support another wave of adoption.  

I still maintain the impact of COIN is being grossly underestimated. The vast majority of "investment dollars" do not sit on bank accounts linked to coinbase or credit card limits linked to circle.

Instead most funds sit in brokerage accounts. During the run where I made most of my purchases, my biggest obstacle was wiring funds from my Brokerage account to my Bank account, so then I could issue a coinbase purchase. Since I see bitcoin as a core asset to hold, this was completely backwards.

COIN will link brokerage accounts to bitcoin, there is a huge amount of funds there....

there is also a huge difference in that you do not actually own bitcoins but COIN shares.

sure some institutional investors might not care. but you are then only "invested" in the Bitcoin economy and not necessarily own an actual share it in. which is perfectly fine, but still....


(I have to say I might be wrong. Could you claim your share in COIN for its equivalent in BTC? I do not think so but maybe someone can confirm.)

I think the shares will be used to purchase BTC so it will roughly track the price of bitcoin. This is at the owners descretion.... so you may see cases where it does not track it. Simply put if its not making money people will not buy shares... but dividends should be offered to entice people to buy shares rather than bitcoin... thats how I kind of guess it works anyway on top of my head knowing how equities work. Because its backed by a regulated exchange, many people will simply hold the shares collecting dividends rather than bitcoin because you would get value on the way up (roughly) and collect interest. For me, personally I prefer to hold bitAssets once the pegs are known to work in bitshares as this will collect me more interest and I own it in a decentralized system rather than depend on a stock exchange susceptible to the pitfals of our modern economy... can happen overnight... its a tradeoff either way.

Some COIN supporters are of the belief that it will SET the price of bitcoin, in much the way that gold ETFs set the price of gold.
The significant differences between gold and bitcoin may run squarely counter to this belief.  Gold ETFs are useful because storage and transport of that commodity bear costs and risks higher than the ETF ownership, where the opposite is true of COIN.  I suspect that often it will influence and follow rather than lead.

There is a long thread on this:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252330.msg2681929#msg2681929
I offered the OP and my chief interlocutor on that thread to do a debate on stage at one of the many Bitcoin conferences but couldn't persuade him to do so.

There will also be some opportunity for truly massive fiat manipulation of COIN due to its projected high liquidity.  In such cases it can be expected to lead price up or down as arbitraging will shift value in and out to the extent that it is trusted.

I suspect that the real time p2p bitcoin exchanges OTC, and localbitcoin and the others will have the highest prices in most cases.  As is said of gold, if you don't hold it, you don't own it.

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September 29, 2014, 09:55:53 PM
 #12980

Circle may be a game changer.  You can sign-up on your phone from anywhere and purchase your first bitcoins with your credit card within minutes.  The fact that they use mandatory 2FA (via SMS by default) also makes me feel better about recommending this service to acquaintances.  Should COIN launch this winter, then the fiat <---> bitcoin gateway infrastructure will be ripe to support another wave of adoption.  

I still maintain the impact of COIN is being grossly underestimated. The vast majority of "investment dollars" do not sit on bank accounts linked to coinbase or credit card limits linked to circle.

Instead most funds sit in brokerage accounts. During the run where I made most of my purchases, my biggest obstacle was wiring funds from my Brokerage account to my Bank account, so then I could issue a coinbase purchase. Since I see bitcoin as a core asset to hold, this was completely backwards.

COIN will link brokerage accounts to bitcoin, there is a huge amount of funds there....

there is also a huge difference in that you do not actually own bitcoins but COIN shares.

sure some institutional investors might not care. but you are then only "invested" in the Bitcoin economy and not necessarily own an actual share it in. which is perfectly fine, but still....


(I have to say I might be wrong. Could you claim your share in COIN for its equivalent in BTC? I do not think so but maybe someone can confirm.)

I think the shares will be used to purchase BTC so it will roughly track the price of bitcoin. This is at the owners descretion.... so you may see cases where it does not track it. Simply put if its not making money people will not buy shares... but dividends should be offered to entice people to buy shares rather than bitcoin... thats how I kind of guess it works anyway on top of my head knowing how equities work. Because its backed by a regulated exchange, many people will simply hold the shares collecting dividends rather than bitcoin because you would get value on the way up (roughly) and collect interest. For me, personally I prefer to hold bitAssets once the pegs are known to work in bitshares as this will collect me more interest and I own it in a decentralized system rather than depend on a stock exchange susceptible to the pitfals of our modern economy... can happen overnight... its a tradeoff either way.

COIN will work just like GLD but using bitcoins as the underlying.  If you own COIN shares all it means is that the Winklevoss ETF is holding your BTC for you in trust.  If it's cheaper to purchase bitcoins from Bitstamp than the equivalent amount of shares from COIN, then one of the "authorized participants" will simultaneously purchase a "basket" of bitcoins from Bitstamp and short a "basket" of COIN shares on the NASDAQ (giving them a positive cash balance).  They will then deliver those bitcoins to the trust (COIN) in exchange for a basket's worth of newly created shares.  They will then use these shares to close their short position with a guaranteed profit.  

This is the arbitrage mechanism that ensures the NAV of the ETF tracks the underlying.

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