[XMR] Monero Speculation

[MadCow]

variable emission depending on need=eMunie

which is just about to launch

How does it work (mods - again please allow 10 lines)?

It doesn't. So far just vapourware.

Let him explain

It's not for me to explain how emunie works. I have done my research over 18 months or so, and from what I've read and learnt using the various beta versions I believe eMunie is a serious project with merit, and its chief goal is exactly what you mentioned in your post, elastic supply based on the needs of the system with the aim of keeping EMU price relatively stable, and thus , more useful as a currency.

In 2007 most people dismissed the possibility of distributed consensus on a P2P network, but bitcoin showed that it was possible. The key point is people had to see it work before they would believe it was possible. With eMunie P2P network, ALL conditions of demand and supply within the EMU ecosystem are known in real time, and new supply of EMU created via hatchers can be adjusted up or down to match needs, over time. Obviously that description will satisfy nobody, and as emunie is still closed source nobody will be able to verify the exact details of the economic system parameters until after its launched. Investing in emunie has high risks, especially for non tech people who require others to verify the details for them. You have faith in XMR devs (and so do I), I also have some confidence in Dan Hughes, who is easily researched as a dev on the internet, but yes, you have me toast, I can't explain how emunie works, but you can't explain how monero works in detail either. In the end the average user does some research and makes a judgement. Bitcoin, monero, emunie may all be found to have fatal flaws in the future.

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[rpietila]

I am sorry that your explanation did not inspire confidence to invest in it. Despite my totally non-tech background, I know reasonably well how Monero operates, and it should not be impossible to gain the same understanding from emunie, although not from that explanation 

[MalMen]

but you can't explain how monero works in detail either.

Actualy
https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/ltb-e202-understanding-monero

If you still have questions after earing this podcast come back here and the comunity will explain the rest

[MadCow]

I am sorry that your explanation did not inspire confidence to invest in it. Despite my totally non-tech background, I know reasonably well how Monero operates, and it should not be impossible to gain the same understanding from emunie, although not from that explanation  

Yes, I would not recommend anyone make investment decisions from random forum posts, but I suspect you already know that Everyone needs to do their own research and make their own mind up. I was skeptical of emunie for a long while, but I am excited by their attempt to use the basic truth of the Quantity Theory of Money (MV=PQ) within a P2P network where all vaiables are known in real time, to achieve a worthwhile goal of price stability. Whether they achieve that is uncertain, but if they do then things will change quite a bit.

[MadCow]

but you can't explain how monero works in detail either.

Actualy
https://letstalkbitcoin.com/blog/post/ltb-e202-understanding-monero

If you still have questions after earing this podcast come back here and the comunity will explain the rest

Oh I have listened to that already, excellent work!! It explains things like how my mechanic reports on the health of my car. I believe it is so because I trust my mechanic, not because I get greasy myself, learn the required skills, and check Unless you're a cryptographer and dev, you have to trust the experts!!

[tyz]

My marble says it, too! So, lets wait and buy all Bitcoins you can for $126 and join the new wealth elite 

No worries. My monkey says BTC has strong support at 126usd.

[xa4]

I am sorry that your explanation did not inspire confidence to invest in it. Despite my totally non-tech background, I know reasonably well how Monero operates, and it should not be impossible to gain the same understanding from emunie, although not from that explanation  

Yes, I would not recommend anyone make investment decisions from random forum posts, but I suspect you already know that Everyone needs to do their own research and make their own mind up. I was skeptical of emunie for a long while, but I am excited by their attempt to use the basic truth of the Quantity Theory of Money (MV=PQ) within a P2P network where all vaiables are known in real time, to achieve a worthwhile goal of price stability. Whether they achieve that is uncertain, but if they do then things will change quite a bit.

Why is this simplistic economic equation MV=PQ so popular, even among many bitcoiners ? It's pseudo science in my opinion.     

[opennux]

I am sorry that your explanation did not inspire confidence to invest in it. Despite my totally non-tech background, I know reasonably well how Monero operates, and it should not be impossible to gain the same understanding from emunie, although not from that explanation  

Yes, I would not recommend anyone make investment decisions from random forum posts, but I suspect you already know that Everyone needs to do their own research and make their own mind up. I was skeptical of emunie for a long while, but I am excited by their attempt to use the basic truth of the Quantity Theory of Money (MV=PQ) within a P2P network where all vaiables are known in real time, to achieve a worthwhile goal of price stability. Whether they achieve that is uncertain, but if they do then things will change quite a bit.

Why is this simplistic economic equation MV=PQ so popular, even among many bitcoiners ? It's pseudo science in my opinion.     

Aren't we just in these days worldwide witnessing that the equation is rather stupid and doesn't fit? It is pseudo science (and wrong at that even).

[xa4]

I am sorry that your explanation did not inspire confidence to invest in it. Despite my totally non-tech background, I know reasonably well how Monero operates, and it should not be impossible to gain the same understanding from emunie, although not from that explanation  

Yes, I would not recommend anyone make investment decisions from random forum posts, but I suspect you already know that Everyone needs to do their own research and make their own mind up. I was skeptical of emunie for a long while, but I am excited by their attempt to use the basic truth of the Quantity Theory of Money (MV=PQ) within a P2P network where all vaiables are known in real time, to achieve a worthwhile goal of price stability. Whether they achieve that is uncertain, but if they do then things will change quite a bit.

Why is this simplistic economic equation MV=PQ so popular, even among many bitcoiners ? It's pseudo science in my opinion.     

Aren't we just in these days worldwide witnessing that the equation is rather stupid and doesn't fit? It is pseudo science (and wrong at that even).

Well, actually I don't know, but it would make a lot of sense. I wonder if there is one equation that fits ? How would you take into account economic reality is distorted and manipulated by "the vile maxim of the masters of mankind" ?   

[smooth]

I am sorry that your explanation did not inspire confidence to invest in it. Despite my totally non-tech background, I know reasonably well how Monero operates, and it should not be impossible to gain the same understanding from emunie, although not from that explanation  

Yes, I would not recommend anyone make investment decisions from random forum posts, but I suspect you already know that Everyone needs to do their own research and make their own mind up. I was skeptical of emunie for a long while, but I am excited by their attempt to use the basic truth of the Quantity Theory of Money (MV=PQ) within a P2P network where all vaiables are known in real time, to achieve a worthwhile goal of price stability. Whether they achieve that is uncertain, but if they do then things will change quite a bit.

Why is this simplistic economic equation MV=PQ so popular, even among many bitcoiners ? It's pseudo science in my opinion.     

Even? There is just as much pseudo science here as anywhere else.

There is nothing wrong with MV=PQ. It is a tautology though. The issue comes when people try to make inferences using it, often holding values constant when they should not be.

[opennux]

I am sorry that your explanation did not inspire confidence to invest in it. Despite my totally non-tech background, I know reasonably well how Monero operates, and it should not be impossible to gain the same understanding from emunie, although not from that explanation  

Yes, I would not recommend anyone make investment decisions from random forum posts, but I suspect you already know that Everyone needs to do their own research and make their own mind up. I was skeptical of emunie for a long while, but I am excited by their attempt to use the basic truth of the Quantity Theory of Money (MV=PQ) within a P2P network where all vaiables are known in real time, to achieve a worthwhile goal of price stability. Whether they achieve that is uncertain, but if they do then things will change quite a bit.

Why is this simplistic economic equation MV=PQ so popular, even among many bitcoiners ? It's pseudo science in my opinion.     

Even? There is just as much pseudo science here as anywhere else.

There is nothing wrong with MV=PQ. It is a tautology though. The issue comes when people try to make inferences using it, often holding values constant when they should not be.

Not only holding values constant, it's a too simplistic observation that doesn't take into account other variables. Such as confidence in the government, or in p2p world confidence in the dev team or community. We see it in central banking. We have seen QE in USD for a long time now, and people keep screaming for hyperinflation but miss the context that it's a reserve currency, and the largest debt market. Money flow in and out of countries and currencies. It's not about the supply as much as it's about confidence. (and note the 'supply' of use is mainly through debt which has to be repaid).
If you can't make inferences from it, does it have any use?

As to the actual emunie, you can't know all variables within the economy at all times. It is hubris and disingenuous claiming so. The goal of price-stability being worthwhile is highly debatable, as that exactly doesn't take into account all other variables. Price stability over what? A day? A week? A month? 10 years? 1000?

[rpietila]

The golden age of mankind in my understanding was about 1870-1912. The prices were not stable, there were +/- 30% moves annually based on natural factors, but the trend was that money (gold) gained purchasing power about 0.5% per year.

Since that is pretty much the only period in history when money has gained purchasing power, and I also happen to hold it as the best and most worthy of imitation, I also support the idea that money should increase in value.

It of course increases in value only if the economy using that money grows faster than the money supply.

[Hueristic]

The golden age of mankind in my understanding was about 1870-1912. ...

what about

[GreekBitcoin]

The golden age of mankind in my understanding was about 1870-1912. The prices were not stable, there were +/- 30% moves annually based on natural factors, but the trend was that money (gold) gained purchasing power about 0.5% per year.

Since that is pretty much the only period in history when money has gained purchasing power, and I also happen to hold it as the best and most worthy of imitation, I also support the idea that money should increase in value.

It of course increases in value only if the economy using that money grows faster than the money supply.

Mankind as 10% of the Europeans and 10% of USA?

Also i am not sure if i would like to imitate it since arguably that economy lead to WW1...

[rpietila]

Also i am not sure if i would like to imitate it since arguably that economy lead to WW1...

In a way, because the economy was so successful that the banksters went desperate in their foment for war, and succeeded.

Cf. now - Internet and knowledge economy is such a success that there is no other way than go full berserk using the main bankster tool USA as the main terror engine.

[Peachy]

Lost of discussion on eMunie. What would you like to know?

As for the inference that MV=PQ is broken and/or pseudo-science, that's not the entire the story. 

The theory is sound, but all prior implementations have been flawed.  Why?  Humans!   The only way to efficiently and accurately control supply prior to emunie was to have a central governing body analyze hundreds of reports on the economic health and these reports are generally delayed in their ability to provide "timely" information (e.g. months or quarters old since it takes a while to collect and distribute).  Accordingly, these delays add a whipsaw/bullwhip effect when utilized for monetary policy since they are acting with imperfect information. 

With a systemic method of monitor/response the ecosystem can maintain the supply/demand balance much more rationally.

[opennux]

The golden age of mankind in my understanding was about 1870-1912. The prices were not stable, there were +/- 30% moves annually based on natural factors, but the trend was that money (gold) gained purchasing power about 0.5% per year.

Since that is pretty much the only period in history when money has gained purchasing power, and I also happen to hold it as the best and most worthy of imitation, I also support the idea that money should increase in value.

It of course increases in value only if the economy using that money grows faster than the money supply.

That is part of the concept in Nassim Talebs Anti-fragility. You must have these natural swings of volatility. If you suppress it it causes a major boom, instead of several smaller self-correcting ones.

Stable prices as a goal is extremely myopic.

The golden age of mankind in my understanding was about 1870-1912. ...

what about

Well that came crashing down quick with intervention.

[opennux]

Lost of discussion on eMunie. What would you like to know?

As for the inference that MV=PQ is broken and/or pseudo-science, that's not the entire the story. 

The theory is sound, but all prior implementations have been flawed.  Why?  Humans!   The only way to efficiently and accurately control supply prior to emunie was to have a central governing body analyze hundreds of reports on the economic health and these reports are generally delayed in their ability to provide "timely" information (e.g. months or quarters old since it takes a while to collect and distribute).  Accordingly, these delays add a whipsaw/bullwhip effect when utilized for monetary policy since they are acting with imperfect information. 

With a systemic method of monitor/response the ecosystem can maintain the supply/demand balance much more rationally.

We agree on the premise that up until now implementation of it has been flawed. But I conjecture you fail to see that you will fail too. Why? Because humans! Don't see yourself above that...Supply/Demand is broken too.

[Peachy]

Lost of discussion on eMunie. What would you like to know?

As for the inference that MV=PQ is broken and/or pseudo-science, that's not the entire the story. 

The theory is sound, but all prior implementations have been flawed.  Why?  Humans!   The only way to efficiently and accurately control supply prior to emunie was to have a central governing body analyze hundreds of reports on the economic health and these reports are generally delayed in their ability to provide "timely" information (e.g. months or quarters old since it takes a while to collect and distribute).  Accordingly, these delays add a whipsaw/bullwhip effect when utilized for monetary policy since they are acting with imperfect information. 

With a systemic method of monitor/response the ecosystem can maintain the supply/demand balance much more rationally.

We agree on the premise that up until now implementation of it has been flawed. But I conjecture you fail to see that you will fail too. Why? Because humans! Don't see yourself above that...Supply/Demand is broken too.

I have a degree in Supply Chain Operations and 20+ years of experience.  I don't think that managing it is broken.  There's a whole world out there that's been doing it for decades.  You should check out APICS and their knowledge on the application of it.

[opennux]

Lost of discussion on eMunie. What would you like to know?

As for the inference that MV=PQ is broken and/or pseudo-science, that's not the entire the story. 

The theory is sound, but all prior implementations have been flawed.  Why?  Humans!   The only way to efficiently and accurately control supply prior to emunie was to have a central governing body analyze hundreds of reports on the economic health and these reports are generally delayed in their ability to provide "timely" information (e.g. months or quarters old since it takes a while to collect and distribute).  Accordingly, these delays add a whipsaw/bullwhip effect when utilized for monetary policy since they are acting with imperfect information. 

With a systemic method of monitor/response the ecosystem can maintain the supply/demand balance much more rationally.

We agree on the premise that up until now implementation of it has been flawed. But I conjecture you fail to see that you will fail too. Why? Because humans! Don't see yourself above that...Supply/Demand is broken too.

I have a degree in Supply Chain Operations and 20+ years of experience.  I don't think that managing it is broken.  There's a whole world out there that's been doing it for decades.  You should check out APICS and their knowledge on the application of it.

What I mean is the notion that when demand falls supply must increase is flawed. Supply can be so low that demand actually falls. In the context of supply chain management where you operate within a most times rather simple system compared to the world economy, sure you can manage it. My objection is to apply it to what we are talking about here. The notion that in an economy you can manipulate demand through supply is flawed. Just look at the QE happening. It is supposed to stimulate the economy, but it doesn't reach the goal because there is not a lot of confidence. You are ignoring other factors.

That doesn't mean I do not appreciate the efforts undertaken in trying it out.