[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them?

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.

Hey risto. How much xmr do you have to have inorder to be considered a whale? Curious to see if i count.

That's up to everybody but if you have 1% of the current emission, I believe everyone considers you a whale

[TrueCryptonaire]

Is there anyone who is on his way to owning 1 000 000 XMR - "Monero Satoshi"?
This type of person owns today 350 000 XMR and is buying more or less frequently as the emission goes on...

I understand that the coin should be distributed as well as possible but 1-2 this type of guys are not hurting Monero especially if they are friendly hands.

[sphericon]

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this

[TrueCryptonaire]

Indeed it is creeping upwards slowly slowly.
I am glad if I finally end up on the water bitcoinwise - and prefertably even am a bit positive since I have kept my coins tied into this for months already. And, no still not even planning to sell my Moneros for peanuts.
You are able to purchase 10 000 XMR from me at 1000 USD each.

[OrientA]

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this

I hope not. slow rise of 5% per week is better than large daily volatility.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this

I hope not. slow rise of 5% per week is better than large daily volatility.

At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow that it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. When the fiat price is 10 usd a coin and with current emission, I am hoping slower price growth. Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

Now it is perfect time for starting acquiring Moneros with fiat.
Bitcoin is still low and Monero/BTC ratio is appealing. Realistically I see Monero going to 10 usd/coin this year. Emission is getting slower and slower all the time meanwhile the price is mid term bullish but long term bearish (as long as new ATH is not reached it is somehow bearish IMO).
I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

Fiat denominated hands are actually doing pretty well now as from their perspective the price is ridiculously low.

[OrientA]

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this

I hope not. slow rise of 5% per week is better than large daily volatility.

At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow that it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. When the fiat price is 10 usd a coin and with current emission, I am hoping slower price growth. Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

Now it is perfect time for starting acquiring Moneros with fiat.
Bitcoin is still low and Monero/BTC ratio is appealing. Realistically I see Monero going to 10 usd/coin this year. Emission is getting slower and slower all the time meanwhile the price is mid term bullish but long term bearish (as long as new ATH is not reached it is somehow bearish IMO).
I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

Fiat denominated hands are actually doing pretty well now as from their perspective the price is ridiculously low.

5% per week is 1264% per year!

[MalMen]

I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

One thing that i learned in this world its that 9 months its a lot of time.. i definitely see this coin on >10USD Range, but its an hell of a jump, dont be lulled into only hopes...
Last week i made my first real world pruchase with BTC/XMR thanks to xmr.to, i realy love the fact that i can be 100% anonymous on that transaction and realy see alot of potencial on this tech, but it will take time, and i hope we all still here when the time comes

[TrueCryptonaire]

I have a feeling we are going to break 300k in the next 24 hours. My buys are posted in preparation for this

I hope not. slow rise of 5% per week is better than large daily volatility.

At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow that it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. When the fiat price is 10 usd a coin and with current emission, I am hoping slower price growth. Now the daily emission costs around 12 000 usd which is peanuts.

Now it is perfect time for starting acquiring Moneros with fiat.
Bitcoin is still low and Monero/BTC ratio is appealing. Realistically I see Monero going to 10 usd/coin this year. Emission is getting slower and slower all the time meanwhile the price is mid term bullish but long term bearish (as long as new ATH is not reached it is somehow bearish IMO).
I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

Fiat denominated hands are actually doing pretty well now as from their perspective the price is ridiculously low.

5% per week is 1264% per year!

Yes.
When the price is this low it is hard to keep the low growth. The low growth comes when the price is high. For instance, until new ATH I would see it very easily going pretty fast without any serious dumps since it is only 3-4 usd/coin and it is kind of psychological barrier that need to overcome. There might start some first more serious selling and the growth rate might fall for a while to 1-2 % per week (this is pure speculation, nothing more nothing less).

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think the new ATH is realistic during summer and the end of 2015 we might reach the 10 usd/xmr target.

One thing that i learned in this world its that 9 months its a lot of time.. i definitely see this coin on >10USD Range, but its an hell of a jump, dont be lulled into only hopes...
Last week i made my first real world pruchase with BTC/XMR thanks to xmr.to, i realy love the fact that i can be 100% anonymous on that transaction and realy see alot of potencial on this tech, but it will take time, and i hope we all still here when the time comes

Yes, 9 months is long time in crypto.
In old world it is considered as short term. If you are building a stock portfolio that pays you hefty dividends, it is a process that takes 20+ years in many cases (depending what you consider hefty and how much you can afford to set aside from each paycheck).

Overcoming DRK is quite essential before it is too late.
People do not care so much which tech is superior but there are other more important factors for average Joe. Marketcap is perhaps one of the most important.

[cbeast]

Haven't done the approximate distribution analysis recently, but due to reasons outlined in previous analyses, I believe there are 5-8 people with 100k or more at the moment. 100k XMR is < 100k USD, so we are talking about tiny amounts.

There are that many people capable in showing a big sell side and an almost unlimited number of people capable in putting bid walls.

The market is so tiny that a manipulation for its own sake is doomed to lose. If the intent is to acquire or divest coins, faking the opposite is of course termed as "manipulation" but the whales have so much going against them due to illiquidity, how about just allowing this to them?

A successful speculation is buying low, selling high, and (I believe) not going to momentum trading, at least if the amount to be traded with is higher than X00 XMR.

If XMR is supposed to be truly anonymous, how do you do distribution analysis to determine how many people have large balances?

[David Latapie]

If XMR is supposed to be truly anonymous, how do you do distribution analysis to determine how many people have large balances?

Power law. Estimations.

[OrientA]

If XMR is supposed to be truly anonymous, how do you do distribution analysis to determine how many people have large balances?

Power law. Estimations.

This is just an estimation. It can be skewed.

[smooth]

If XMR is supposed to be truly anonymous, how do you do distribution analysis to determine how many people have large balances?

Power law. Estimations.

This is just an estimation. It can be skewed.

Of course, that's why rpietila called it "approximate distribution analysis"

[rpietila]

If XMR is supposed to be truly anonymous, how do you do distribution analysis to determine how many people have large balances?

Power law. Estimations.

This is just an estimation. It can be skewed.

Of course, that's why rpteilla called it "approximate distribution analysis"

I have written multiple threads with hundreds(!) of posts about it. The body of knowledge is all there (see my sig).

This problem is contained, meaning it cannot have outcomes outside a defined set (limited number of coins and limited number of owners).

The outcomes in the set have a statistical probability maximum at certain points (forming the "most probable distribution curve"). We do not know exactly what the most probable curve is, and we do not know any individual holders' exact holdings. The most probable curve does, however, have bounds, it does follow a certain formula with only the parameters being up to debate. The individual holdings also follow a random statistical sample theory.

Therefore it is possible to construct approximate distributions that are based on the approximations of the parameters in these formulas, and the statistical laws. The probability of the measured result (it cannot be measured of course) being off from the distribution constructed such, is the lower, the further from the approximate distribution. Similarly, it is not possible to say for certain that a d20 would not show 1 if your life depends on it, but the probability of hitting a 1-5 is much higher.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Database issue ready within days? Source: http://getmonero.org/2015/03/16/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-16.html
Wow! Amazing.
We are finally ready to take in serious investors.  

[smooth]

Database issue ready within days? Source: http://getmonero.org/2015/03/16/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-16.html
Wow! Amazing.
We are finally ready to take in serious investors.  

Test builds at first. It getting ready for full release soon shouldn't be a huge surprise since people who have been able to build their own from source have been testing it for months.

Many important pieces of Monero development are falling into place now.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Database issue ready within days? Source: http://getmonero.org/2015/03/16/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-16.html
Wow! Amazing.
We are finally ready to take in serious investors.  

Test builds at first. It getting ready for full release soon shouldn't be a huge surprise since people who have been able to build their own from source have been testing it for months.

Many important pieces of Monero development are falling into place now.

There are tons of coins that are completely abandoned.
Just delivering something concrete is a good sign.

[smooth]

Database issue ready within days? Source: http://getmonero.org/2015/03/16/monero-missive-for-the-week-of-2015-03-16.html
Wow! Amazing.
We are finally ready to take in serious investors.  

Test builds at first. It getting ready for full release soon shouldn't be a huge surprise since people who have been able to build their own from source have been testing it for months.

Many important pieces of Monero development are falling into place now.

There are tons of coins that are completely abandoned.
Just delivering something concrete is a good sign.

Absolutely. There are at most a few dozen coins out of several hundred on coinmarketcap (I'm told there are close to 2000 total) that aren't abandoned, and that might be a high estimate.

In my opinion some of the traction that Monero is starting to get now (and I believe will continue to get in the coming months) comes from the fact that we are still here and still working on it after almost a year. That's really the only way for an objective outside observer to tell what in this sea of shitcoins is worthwhile -- the test of time.

[binaryFate]

2 months ago:

[...] The emission is still pretty high [...]

At that time we had: ~17000 daily emission * 0.30$ = $5,100
And you called it "high"

Now:

[...] At this point the fiat price is so low and the emission in terms of fiat is so slow [...]

We currently have: ~16000 daily emission * 0.80$ = $12,800
And you call it "slow".

Last time I checked, 12,800 is greater than 5,100.
Since you're openly contradicting yourself, I question the entire legitimacy of your posts here. I believe 100% of them are purely self-serving, even if that may harm others reading. That surely harms the S/N ratio here.
The thread is about "speculation", not about "plain contradiction".
Your posts are not serving any other purpose than helping yourself and your current position, so try at least to do that more effectively. Hint: being consistent might help.

Not clear enough?

2 months ago:

[...] The big price increase will take place most likely after 6-12 months from now so we have plenty of time to buy coins until that. [...]

Now:

[...] it is actually quite alarming sign if the price do not move fast. [...]