[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

I think this regulation is impending, and will do significant damage to BTC: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-2380_en.htm
But it will be of significant benefit to XMR on a BTC-relative basis.  It may well damage XMR relative to fiat, however, at least initially.

[Hueristic]

I speculate my previous speculation may have been WRONG!

[birr]

I think this regulation is impending, and will do significant damage to BTC: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-16-2380_en.htm
But it will be of significant benefit to XMR on a BTC-relative basis.  It may will damage XMR relative to fiat, however, at least initially.

I suppose these two, uh, measures should concern us, especially the first one

* Tackling terrorist financing risks linked to virtual currencies: to prevent misuse of virtual currencies for money laundering and terrorist financing purposes, the Commission proposes to bring virtual currency exchange platforms and custodian wallet providers under the scope of the Anti-Money Laundering Directive. These entities will have to apply customer due diligence controls when exchanging virtual for real currencies, ending the anonymity associated with such exchanges;
* Tackling risks linked to anonymous pre-paid instruments (e.g. pre-paid cards): the Commission also proposes to minimise the use of anonymous payments through pre-paid cards, by lowering thresholds for identificationfrom €250 to €150 and widening customer verification requirements. Proportionality has been taken into account, with particular regard paid to the use of these cards by financially vulnerable citizens

Whar exactly does "due diligence controls" mean in this context?

[aminorex]

Whar exactly does "due diligence controls" mean in this context?

The thread at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1541987.0 might help determine the answer.

[Monerobuyer0]

And anyone who bought XMR on margin is now rekt. Just like always.

[needmoney90]

And anyone who bought XMR on margin is now rekt. Just like always.

s/bought/FOMO'd/g

[Monerobuyer0]

Polo trollbox is now full of people bragging about their profit on XMR shorts.

[medusa13]

And anyone who bought XMR on margin is now rekt. Just like always.

thats just not true, no margin calls have been possible. move way too small until now. even if you bought on top with 2.5x

[aminorex]

Polo trollbox is now full of people bragging about their profit on XMR shorts.

That means they cover, supporting price #GoodForXMR.  Nice steady rise is the best case scenario.

And in fact it seems to be settling into a new USD level.  Monero has leveled up, now a class 10 Warrior.  Lisk, I'm looking at you.

[newb4now]

Let's try to keep it down to 2x monthly, people. Slow and steady wins the race.

In a perfect world price increases would always be linear, but unfortunately that never happens. HODLing instead of trading frequently is probably the best option for most people.

[aminorex]

Let's try to keep it down to 2x monthly, people. Slow and steady wins the race.

In a perfect world price increases would always be linear, but unfortunately that never happens. HODLing instead of trading frequently is probably the best option for most people.

I usually advocate long-term strictly periodic constant fiat rate dollar cost averaging:  It reduces the likelihood of a panic-inducing drawdown (and the stopping time for drawdowns).  It is just about the only thing I can broadly recommend to a majority of people without doing much harm.  If I try to tell people how to optimize outcomes in the way in which I seek to do it, they never seem to get similar results (often get virtually opposite results), and everyone feels bad about it.

[explorer]

Let's try to keep it down to 2x monthly, people. Slow and steady wins the race.

In a perfect world price increases would always be linear, but unfortunately that never happens. HODLing instead of trading frequently is probably the best option for most people.

I concur.  Trading on my small scale requires too much attention, and never fails to get away from me, negating whatever gains I was congratulating myself on.  Exciting, but in the long run, I do better to go work for a day and buy at market instead. 
   Let's keep this market rising, then I can retire, and devote the required time to successful trading 

[novag]

$ 1,202,630 - 24h Volume on Monero!

[needmoney90]

$ 1,202,630 - 24h Volume on Monero!

Thats what I'm getting.

Edit: Ah, probably 1.2m in the past 24 hours cumulatively, this graph has a cutoff.

[sandiman]

$ 1,202,630 - 24h Volume on Monero!

Thats what I'm getting.

Edit: Ah, probably 1.2m in the past 24 hours cumulatively, this graph has a cutoff.

Wait wait, is that a kangoroo tail on someone massive distribution no way monero whale why did you had to stop that move 

[GingerAle]

So I'm really curious what the experienced Monero traders think the bitcoin halvening will do for the Monero BTC price.

Almost everytime bitcoin starts shooting to the moon, the Monero BTC price tanks. Indeed, it is often that Monero will hold its dollar value, but lose its BTC value.

Thus, when the FOMO or general hype of the bitcoin halvening really takes hold (on the short timeframe), I assume lots of people will cash out of Monero and we'll see some massive dumpage. But then again it took months for the "halving effect" to occur last time.

But then we throw into this mix the new twist of the GUI coming out.... at some point.

And what the hell is ethereum still doing at number 2. You kill the social contract and yet everythings still fine?

[Febo]

$ 1,202,630 - 24h Volume on Monero!

Yesterdays was 6th most traded day in Monero history.  I checked only Poloniex datas, but doubt overall can be any different.

So I'm really curious what the experienced Monero traders think the bitcoin halvening will do for the Monero BTC price.

Almost everytime bitcoin starts shooting to the moon, the Monero BTC price tanks. Indeed, it is often that Monero will hold its dollar value, but lose its BTC value.

Thus, when the FOMO or general hype of the bitcoin halvening really takes hold (on the short timeframe), I assume lots of people will cash out of Monero and we'll see some massive dumpage. But then again it took months for the "halving effect" to occur last time.

Well i am not experienced trader.  But i dont think halvening will influence Bitcoin much anymore. It is here and Bitcoin is mainly held by speculators, which already speculated what influence should halving have on Bitcoin.

I think Monero last half year is not related to anything else then Monero itself.  Increased volume is related to Ethereum traded on Poloniex but price increase has nothing to do with it.

BTC will raise at some point and I did thought that would short time be bad for Monero. Now I am not really sure. But if this BTC raise will happen when Monero will be much expensive as is now then that maybe could be the case.

[TrueCryptonaire]

My speculation currently:
Looks like the FOMO we had yesterday is over for now, so the guy expecting his paycheck can relax for a while now and not to take payday loans for buying Moneros because of FOMO.  

I am expecting correction but not too deep, around 0.0027-0.00285 levels, then stability before the next leg upwards.

Personally I bought today some Silver, and I am planning to buy some bitcoins as well if its price drops. I am not planning to buy Moneros ATM though unless the price drops 0.001. Selling Moneros is not an option either - I will let the others sell now and waite until people come to beg some Moneros from me.
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it.



If you feel bullish, there are bitcoins available in Polo for margin long. If you feel bearish, there are Moneros available for margin short.

[Hueristic]

I agree With Febo, the 1/2ing is already been priced in and it's just going to bounce around this point and then there will a profit taking when it doesn't rocket. Pretty much exactly what i predicted when I divested, I've seen nothing to change that opinion. Luckily XMR caught a break with ETH fail but really has not benefited as much as it should have. I think this is because the general userbase still does not really know what is the truth (I.E. why cap is so small for such a great project) and are afraid to take a chance especially anyone that looks at the long term graphs and see's the Serious dumps that have occurred. I'm still 99.9% certain my forcast was correct and even with the ETH fail will come out ahead with my strategy.

I would really like to know why fluffy has not responded to my question in the main thread when I see him posting drivel on reddit. Has the team given up on BCT? Even smooth has been conspicuously absent recently. I figured it was the holiday weekend (US anyway) but now I wonder.

[GingerAle]

I agree With Febo, the 1/2ing is already been priced in and it's just going to bounce around this point and then there will a profit taking when it doesn't rocket. Pretty much exactly what i predicted when I divested, I've seen nothing to change that opinion. Luckily XMR caught a break with ETH fail but really has not benefited as much as it should have. I think this is because the general userbase still does not really know what is the truth (I.E. why cap is so small for such a great project) and are afraid to take a chance especially anyone that looks at the long term graphs and see's the Serious dumps that have occurred. I'm still 99.9% certain my forcast was correct and even with the ETH fail will come out ahead with my strategy.

I would really like to know why fluffy has not responded to my question in the main thread when I see him posting drivel on reddit. Has the team given up on BCT? Even smooth has been conspicuously absent recently. I figured it was the holiday weekend (US anyway) but now I wonder.

Try asking the question on reddit.