[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

somebody dumped 9400 XMR a short while ago @425

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[rpietila]

Yeah now there's a break because 425 wall was attacked by a big salvo. The rest (that in my calc belonged to 3 if not 4 traders) was quickly pulled. Now bid side is about 413, no meaningful ask until 450, suspected to be fake.

One trader claims to have bought 15k today. Warz who started it all has not commented.

There's a growing wall in 400 so truce might not last long.

[dEBRUYNE]

somebody dumped 9400 XMR a short while ago @425

Total dumps that minute was around 13.5k. Take a look at the 1 minute chart and you'll notice.

We broke out of the downtrend btw with considerable volume! Time to buy guys  

[troleybüs]

Breaking the trend is marvellous. I want to see more buy walls, I will buy more when I get my BTC from Turkish exchange site.

[oda.krell]

Huh. Didn't check the price in a few days, and look at that. Either we have a new investor, or someone has around 30% more coins now than he did before.

[blaaaaacksuit]

So any ideas what all the buy walling was about this morning?  Seems to be dissipating and the price didn't really move a whole lot.

[giveBTCpls]

When can we spect ATH and maintain above ATH with a certain stability? im the unlucky retard that had to buy some at 0.0074.

[aminorex]

So any ideas what all the buy walling was about this morning?  Seems to be dissipating and the price didn't really move a whole lot.

Some supply came out to sop up the liquidity.  More coins in stronger hands, so it's good.  Walls competed for coins until everyone had what they wanted at the clearing prices, so things settled down. 

As RP observed elsewhere, a massive wedge is closing on this price.  It's a volatility squeeze.

I don't see how it can fail to end in a significant new level being discovered soon.  I haven't used any estimators to quantify, but we've got .6% daily supply restriction accumulating, and I don't think demand is abating in the least, so I'm a bull, as usual.

[aminorex]

When can we spect ATH and maintain above ATH with a certain stability? im the unlucky retard that had to buy some at 0.0074.

I think that before the new year you will be the lucky genius who got to buy some at 0.0074.  Just don't sell unless you really need the liquidity (and you're running low on kidneys).  This one is a keeper.

[dnaleor]

When can we spect ATH and maintain above ATH with a certain stability? im the unlucky retard that had to buy some at 0.0074.

I think that before the new year you will be the lucky genius who got to buy some at 0.0074.  Just don't sell unless you really need the liquidity (and you're running low on kidneys).  This one is a keeper.

 

How much XMR would a kidney cost?
According to this website a buyer needs to pay around 76182 XMR (current exchange rate).

back to speculation...

I think  the chances are very low taht we go again below 0.004. the volume and walls are high!

[rikkejohn]

Not much of a price move, back to the sideways trading, maybe?

I really cannot understand that a coin would have so much volume, so many "senior members" suddenly speaking for it, yet the price stays the same for days on end.

Look at Doge (urgh) in comparison, you see movement, not stagnation.

Remember Feathercon?
 

[Joshuar]

Not much of a price move, back to the sideways trading, maybe?

I really cannot understand that a coin would have so much volume, so many "senior members" suddenly speaking for it, yet the price stays the same for days on end.

Look at Doge (urgh) in comparison, you see movement, not stagnation.

Remember Feathercon?
 

That's an amateurish comment.

Coins that are to be used in the real world, are not supposed to have huge daily fluctuations. That's what makes so many people think BTC isn't something to be taken seriously, since it's price(and all alt-coins atm), can fluctuate so drastically.

Moneros price staying the same for days on end, is a Good Thing. It's actually the best thing. That shows it has little volatility, and can be taken seriously as a currency, not just a toy to pump and dump.

[smooth]

Not much of a price move, back to the sideways trading, maybe?

I really cannot understand that a coin would have so much volume, so many "senior members" suddenly speaking for it, yet the price stays the same for days on end.

Look at Doge (urgh) in comparison, you see movement, not stagnation.

Remember Feathercon?
 

That's an amateurish comment.

Coins that are to be used in the real world, are not supposed to have huge daily fluctuations. That's what makes so many people think BTC isn't something to be taken seriously, since it's price(and all alt-coins atm), can fluctuate so drastically.

Moneros price staying the same for days on end, is a Good Thing. It's actually the best thing. That shows it has little volatility, and can be taken seriously as a currency, not just a toy to pump and dump.

It is still reasonable to ask why this is happening, without the assuming (with zero evidence) an answer.

[rikkejohn]

What I am interested in, is why Poloniex took XMR on? It threw out the second alt, replaced it with XMR, and then suddenly gave it all these extra markets that LTC never got.

Maybe LTC is just so shit, yet I'm sensing low volume on XMR markets, and as a "guess", lower than LTC  had (please don't include the LTC/XMR trade at the moment as a counter argument. that existed anyway.

Hmm ... maybe I'll buy some IFC, and trade it for XMR.

Then I intend to invest everything in XMR, get some leverage and shit. Gavin Anderson/Andersson once said BTC needed to be more private, so there is clear proof that XMR will make us all rich.

[smooth]

What I am interested in, is why Poloniex took XMR on? It threw out the second alt, replaced it with XMR, and then suddenly gave it all these extra markets that LTC never got.

I'm pretty sure what happened is they added all the CryptoNote coins, probably not knowing which would be the most successful (and indeed in the early days they all had their high volume pumps), XMR became the most persistently popular and really made it for the exchange (e.g. they made enough from commissions on XMR trading to pay back the losses from the earlier hack). Once that happened they switched from LTC to XMR for the low-value coin markets to capitalize on that volume and try to extend their position as the leading XMR exchange.

[rikkejohn]

What I am interested in, is why Poloniex took XMR on? It threw out the second alt, replaced it with XMR, and then suddenly gave it all these extra markets that LTC never got.

I'm pretty sure what happened is they added all the CryptoNote coins, probably not knowing which would be the most successful (and indeed in the early days they all had their high volume pumps), XMR became the most persistently popular and really made it for the exchange (e.g. they made enough from commissions on XMR trading to pay back the losses from the earlier hack). Once that happened they switched from LTC to XMR for the low-value coin markets to capitalize on that volume and try to extend their position as the leading XMR exchange.

This is unprecedented, other exchanges have tried with Doge and Primecoin in addition to LTC, but Poloniex effectively alienated all litecoin owners. I traded a fair bit there, btc or ltc. I no longer visit the site. It's a shame, because they have some nice support agents.

[smooth]

What I am interested in, is why Poloniex took XMR on? It threw out the second alt, replaced it with XMR, and then suddenly gave it all these extra markets that LTC never got.

I'm pretty sure what happened is they added all the CryptoNote coins, probably not knowing which would be the most successful (and indeed in the early days they all had their high volume pumps), XMR became the most persistently popular and really made it for the exchange (e.g. they made enough from commissions on XMR trading to pay back the losses from the earlier hack). Once that happened they switched from LTC to XMR for the low-value coin markets to capitalize on that volume and try to extend their position as the leading XMR exchange.

This is unprecedented, other exchanges have tried with Doge and Primecoin in addition to LTC, but Poloniex effectively alienated all litecoin owners. I traded a fair bit there, btc or ltc. I no longer visit the site. It's a shame, because they have some nice support agents.

XMR is unprecedented. There is no other alt that has attracted the interest of so many (or even any) old time BTC supporters and BTC whales. There just hasn't been an alt with the same degree of genuine innovation combined with a reasonably fair launch and community leadership.

[blaaaaacksuit]

What I am interested in, is why Poloniex took XMR on? It threw out the second alt, replaced it with XMR, and then suddenly gave it all these extra markets that LTC never got.

Maybe LTC is just so shit, yet I'm sensing low volume on XMR markets, and as a "guess", lower than LTC  had (please don't include the LTC/XMR trade at the moment as a counter argument. that existed anyway.

Hmm ... maybe I'll buy some IFC, and trade it for XMR.

Then I intend to invest everything in XMR, get some leverage and shit. Gavin Anderson/Andersson once said BTC needed to be more private, so there is clear proof that XMR will make us all rich.

Weren't you totally raging against XMR a little while back?

[TheKoziTwo]

Not much of a price move, back to the sideways trading, maybe?

I really cannot understand that a coin would have so much volume, so many "senior members" suddenly speaking for it, yet the price stays the same for days on end.

Look at Doge (urgh) in comparison, you see movement, not stagnation.

Remember Feathercon?
 

You have been exposed to an altcoin market where the vast majority of projects exists for the sole purpose of transfering wealth from unsuspecting victims into the hands of a small group of essentially fraud artists, or at the very least people with a copycat mentality and dreams of riches.

The problem is, you can't just tweak a few parameters and succeed in this market anymore. In the beginning this may have been possible (e.g LTC), but now new coins need much more. You will find whitepapers that appears to solve problems on hot topics such as anonymity. While some of them may have some merit, most do not, and some are outright frauds directed at unsuspecting victims. Combinded with pr campaigns, sock puppets and hype cycles the market is now overflooded with what I like to classify as the modern form of ponzi schemes.

What is the typical cycle of these coins? There is a period of large price increases, massive hype with delusion of the coin's future, then there is a long painful downward spiral into oblivion.

Example: auroracoin.

In order to compete with bitcoin, or work as a complimentary currency, there must be some significant new features. In a sea of shitcoins it just so happens that monero does have these required features. Real, working anonymity. I have always been of the belief that bitcoin needs anonymity, or that an altcoin should offer this.

I think this is the one and only feature currently very attractive to senior bitcoiners. Most whom have not considered altcoins previously due to them simply offering nothing of relevance. Monero is a different animal, completely built from scratch and with the so sought after anonymity fully working. And a very fair launch. I believe this is why monero has caught their attention.

So to finally answer your question. The volume is so high because we have large speculators trading against each other. Senior bitcoiners are able to accumulate large positions of XMR even if they only invest 1-10% of their BTC stack. Thus they can support the price by buying when it goes too low, but more importantly sell some of their large XMR stash once it goes too high. That's right, they will prevent the price from going "too high". Very often in other coins you do not have senior bitcoiners with large position who can suppress the price once it goes bananas and there is really no suffient way to participate in shorting. We are left to shake our heads at these pump n dumps, but there is little we can do since we won't buy crap like that in the first place. So most coins are thus held by either delusionary newbies, get rich schemers / "pumpers" or developers with massive pre-mines. There is simply not enough liquidity in these markets to prevent the price from going mad.

With many large holders trading against each other the margins will decrease. Instead of buying at 0.001 and selling at 0.004 ten minutes later they will be buying at 0.0039 and selling at 0.004 simply due to all the competition. When many are participating and the liqudity is high it becomes more difficult to make big moves. This creates a stable price and is a sign of maturity rather than stagnation. Every day the price stays at 0.004 is a victory, with inflation of 20k that equals to 80 btc worth of funds being absorbed by the market. Every day.

To sum this up: Monero is doing excellent and while the price may not change much at all, the market cap is steadily increasing and closing in on ATH. This is anything but stagnation. I would dare to say that monero is one of the most healthy altcoin markets.

[Melbustus]

...
I think this is the one and only feature currently very attractive to senior bitcoiners. Most whom have not considered altcoins previously due to them simply offering nothing of relevance. Monero is a different animal, completely built from scratch and with the so sought after anonymity fully working. And a very fair launch. I believe this is why monero has caught their attention.
...

^ Yup.