SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game

[Zaih]

FYI - I like how these guys implemented semi-accountless rolling:

Erik has said that off-the-blockchain betting is coming soon to SDICE too.  Probably in the thread about the SDICE shares.  I agree, it is nice to be able to get almost instant feedback when you bet.

Really looking forward to this.

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[dooglus]

In the mean time I will pay out nelisky separately to make that right and run a program to see if there were any more of these.

I think this was caused because the output in question was fresh from a mined block and had the output in the older OP_CHECKSIG style.

http://blockchain.info/tx-index/6313254/55eacb8699a780561ca42012a3ea47e2eab100d01f89a18749666a94bc88938e

However, I could easily be misunderstanding what is going on there.

This still seems to be an issue.  See this 2.5 BTC bet from a couple of days ago which hasn't been recognised by satoshidice yet:
  http://blockexplorer.com/tx/c5026931c5ff513f3ee60a981585e24f1d9a2df8809f7120ffe2bf6f6b238581

It spends an old-style OP_CHECKSIG block reward.

[SatoshiDICE_PR]

Hello!
I will be taking over the PR and customer support of SatoshiDice.
I will be following the discussion threads here and on reddit to answer any questions which might arise.
If you have any questions or concerns regarding the SatoshiDice operation, then please send me a pm on Bitcointalk/Reddit or email me at support@satoshidice.com
A live support feature will also be implemented (hopefully today), in which you can chat with me if you have any problems.

I will be acting as a gateway between the community, the users and the management/technical division.
Hopefully this will lead to more direct and quick feedback for everyone involved.

May the odds ever be in your favor!
The Spirit of Satoshi

[SatoshiDICE_PR]

In the mean time I will pay out nelisky separately to make that right and run a program to see if there were any more of these.

I think this was caused because the output in question was fresh from a mined block and had the output in the older OP_CHECKSIG style.

http://blockchain.info/tx-index/6313254/55eacb8699a780561ca42012a3ea47e2eab100d01f89a18749666a94bc88938e

However, I could easily be misunderstanding what is going on there.

This still seems to be an issue.  See this 2.5 BTC bet from a couple of days ago which hasn't been recognised by satoshidice yet:
  http://blockexplorer.com/tx/c5026931c5ff513f3ee60a981585e24f1d9a2df8809f7120ffe2bf6f6b238581

It spends an old-style OP_CHECKSIG block reward.

Hi!
The reason why your bet got stuck was due the a technical issue which prevents SatoshiDice from determining the return address for bets that comes directly from a block of newly mined coins. The bet is still recorded by the system but it required a manual step to fully process.
Your bet has now been manually fixed.
In the future if anyone has a similar problem please notify me and I will make sure it is dealt with!

Best Regards
The Spirit of Satoshi

[evoorhees]

Hello!
I will be taking over the PR and customer support of SatoshiDice.
I will be following the discussion threads here and on reddit to answer any questions which might arise.
If you have any questions or concerns regarding the SatoshiDice operation, then please send me a pm on Bitcointalk/Reddit or email me at support@satoshidice.com
A live support feature will also be implemented (hopefully today), in which you can chat with me if you have any problems.

I will be acting as a gateway between the community, the users and the management/technical division.
Hopefully this will lead to more direct and quick feedback for everyone involved.

May the odds ever be in your favor!
The Spirit of Satoshi

Posting here to verify the account. SatoshiDICE_PR is SatoshiDice's legitimate representative.

[Vink]

What are the chances of a loss streak of 11 in a row at 50%? I just took big hit

[Dabs]

What are the chances of a loss streak of 11 in a row at 50%? I just took big hit

That's actually quite normal. A real life casino had 30+ blacks in a row on a roulette table.

[nimda]

What are the chances of a loss streak of 11 in a row at 50%? I just took big hit

That's actually quite normal. A real life casino had 30+ blacks in a row on a roulette table.

These statistics are easy.

Chance of 1 loss is 50%
Chance of 2 consecutive losses is 25%
...
Chance of 11 consecutive losses is just under 0.05%, or 1 in 2048.

Nothing to sneeze at, no foul play, etc etc

[dooglus]

What are the chances of a loss streak of 11 in a row at 50%? I just took big hit

Wasn't it just 8 in a row?  1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 130?

That's the only big recent losing streak I see.  (Here: http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=1LMZesDkrYDED4Wn6tjEtsrQVsQqtyAECm)



Edit: oh, it's 11 if you count the 0.01 BTC bets too.  My mistake.

[Vink]

Yep.  Painful

[elux]

Yep.  Painful

The odds are:

0.5^8 = 0.00390625 = 0.390625 percent

0.5^11 = 0.00048828125 = 0.048828125 percent

Given the volume of bets at SatoshiDice, both are common occurences.

Even though it will feel like a freak occurence to any one player.

(One in 256 and one in 2048 martingale runs, respectively...)

This is how the house wins.

[saudibull]

Im still trying to win the X64,000   .. c'mon big money...   yea right -

[Zaih]

Yep.  Painful

Wow, that's a massive hit to take. My condolences. Martingale method from 1 BTC... Lots to gain.. Lots to lose..

I hope your financials weren't damaged too hard.

[miningusa]

this game is cray cray!!

[Milkshake]

Hello!
I will be taking over the PR and customer support of SatoshiDice.
I will be following the discussion threads here and on reddit to answer any questions which might arise.
If you have any questions or concerns regarding the SatoshiDice operation, then please send me a pm on Bitcointalk/Reddit or email me at support@satoshidice.com
A live support feature will also be implemented (hopefully today), in which you can chat with me if you have any problems.

I will be acting as a gateway between the community, the users and the management/technical division.
Hopefully this will lead to more direct and quick feedback for everyone involved.

May the odds ever be in your favor!
The Spirit of Satoshi

Great, now can you stop pissing away shareholder's money? 

[elux]

Yep.  Painful

Martingale method from 1 BTC... Lots to gain.. Lots to lose..

Or rather, a constant 1 BTC to be won, up to 250 BTC to be lost. 

(When using the martingale strategy, starting from 1 BTC.)

[Milkshake]

Hey Erik, do you mind sharing how much of your shareholder's money are you paying your girlfriend? Let me guess, it's going to be denominated in BTC so 10 hours of social media nets you $5000 from the shareholders?

Also, please share when you are going to dump another tranche 

[evoorhees]

Hey Erik, do you mind sharing how much of your shareholder's money are you paying your girlfriend? Let me guess, it's going to be denominated in BTC so 10 hours of social media nets you $5000 from the shareholders?

Also, please share when you are going to dump another tranche 

My girlfriend doesn't work for me or SatoshiDice.

No more tranches will ever be released.

[Vink]

An 8 streak loss was the most I lost before this 11 streak one. This is after months of playing.

[dooglus]

Given infinite time, money and no limit you will NOT necessarily eventually recover.

I disagree.  The case where you have infinite time, infinite money and no house limit is in fact the ONLY time you're guaranteed that martingale betting will work for you.  As you say, the probability of N losses in a row is 1/2^N.  As N tends to infinity, 1/2^N tends to zero, meaning in the limit there is zero chance of losing forever.

Unfortunately in Bitcoinland nobody has infinite money because there's a hard limit of 21 million BTC.  So even if we figure out immortality, and convince Erik to remove the house limit, we're still screwed.

It isn't impossible in your lifetime that every single time you flip a coin it lands heads.

Right.  It's even very likely if you live in part of the world where coins don't exist (0 heads out of 0 flips == every flip landed heads.  And tails).  But "in your lifetime" usually implies less than infinite time.

I am going to reset to min bets to get the voodoo out and watch the streak at a lower level, but it will always return to "recovering all losses" with a large bet! And that large bet will still be 50% chance of recovery, no matter what my previous winnings/losings were!

Now you're scaring me.  Talking about probabilities and 'voodoo' in the same post?  Never bet more than you can afford to lose...