dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
|
|
January 31, 2013, 08:00:21 PM |
|
Variance, eh? Nice recovery just as the month's about to end... Total of 16 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Jan-31 11:32am (up to block 218965)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 77415 | 0 (0.00000) | 76121 | 1294 | 797.55 | 0.01 | 104.64 | 797.53 | 0.002 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 3824 | 0 (0.00000) | 3325 | 499 | 62.95 | 0.01 | 17.04 | 62.94 | 0.020 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 6062 | 1 (0.00018) | 5640 | 421 | 88.41 | 159.97 | 8.46 | -71.56 | 180.939 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 8660 | 3 (0.00036) | 8231 | 426 | 131.05 | 176.01 | 10.03 | -44.95 | 134.301 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 10544 | 1 (0.00010) | 10131 | 412 | 313.59 | 4.56 | 18.66 | 309.02 | 1.456 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 11712 | 3 (0.00027) | 11315 | 394 | 626.52 | 303.62 | 1.36 | 322.89 | 48.463 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 14508 | 14 (0.00099) | 14072 | 422 | 920.39 | 230.74 | 55.73 | 689.64 | 25.071 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 16543 | 32 (0.00199) | 16079 | 432 | 1983.06 | 1416.66 | 48.32 | 566.39 | 71.438 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 18259 | 83 (0.00464) | 17798 | 378 | 2275.21 | 3651.88 | 13.17 | -1376.67 | 160.507 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 27139 | 204 (0.00771) | 26251 | 684 | 4465.82 | 4158.96 | 9.98 | 306.86 | 93.129 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 87191 | 1331 (0.01534) | 85411 | 449 | 23186.31 | 19657.87 | 1.95 | 3528.43 | 84.782 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 20409 | 476 (0.02373) | 19582 | 351 | 6534.61 | 6608.00 | 15.07 | -73.39 | 101.123 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 51950 | 1595 (0.03093) | 49969 | 386 | 25838.70 | 23126.99 | 9.32 | 2711.71 | 89.505 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 23709 | 1080 (0.04637) | 22211 | 418 | 8622.55 | 9770.89 | 25.11 | -1148.34 | 113.318 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 29342 | 1778 (0.06137) | 27193 | 371 | 6679.21 | 6308.35 | 31.29 | 370.86 | 94.448 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 36526 | 3389 (0.09381) | 32738 | 399 | 14199.04 | 15917.82 | 7.15 | -1718.77 | 112.105 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 146457 | 17982 (0.12316) | 128021 | 454 | 72635.57 | 72942.95 | 100.24 | -307.37 | 100.423 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 60200 | 11009 (0.18424) | 48744 | 447 | 145406.48 | 148966.51 | 3314.67 | -3560.02 | 102.448 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 179703 | 43694 (0.24380) | 135529 | 480 | 332317.06 | 319177.29 | 2056.09 | 13139.76 | 96.046 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 176502 | 64752 (0.36795) | 111229 | 521 | 529202.23 | 525722.60 | 1012.97 | 3479.63 | 99.342 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 929539 | 453083 (0.48817) | 475035 | 1421 | 752558.98 | 735657.23 | 2924.16 | 16901.75 | 97.754 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 425912 | 212260 (0.49940) | 212771 | 881 | 573438.12 | 561459.76 | 5720.41 | 11978.35 | 97.911 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 271951 | 199617 (0.73547) | 71799 | 535 | 263250.74 | 257470.07 | 5454.88 | 5780.67 | 97.804 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 54270 | 42741 (0.79385) | 11099 | 430 | 55397.36 | 54229.66 | 1187.20 | 1167.70 | 97.892 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 40270 | 34073 (0.85619) | 5723 | 474 | 60871.21 | 60349.67 | 400.24 | 521.53 | 99.143 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 54469 | 49474 (0.91585) | 4546 | 449 | 56721.75 | 56317.52 | 0.22 | 404.22 | 99.287 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 13169 | 12152 (0.98063) | 240 | 777 | 22471.60 | 22076.80 | 239.70 | 394.79 | 98.243 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 2698994 | 1104976 | 1579702 | 14316 | 617222.65 | 604210.49 | 225.48 | 13012.15 | 97.892 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 97241 | 45851 | 51101 | 289 | 2343773.53 | 2301652.04 | 22562.70 | 42121.49 | 98.203 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 2796235 | 1150827 | 1630803 | 14605 | 2960996.19 | 2905862.54 | 22788.19 | 55133.64 | 98.138 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 55133.64999467 BTC (1.862%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 1994.43637500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 53139.21361967 BTC (1.795%) Pending Liabilities: -0.45667668 BTC Final SD Profit: 53139.67029635 BTC (1.795%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 9101422 : SatoshiDice Tx: 5147181 (56.6%) Blockchain MB: 3885.0 : SatoshiDice MB: 2113.9 (54.4%)
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
|
|
|
According to NIST and ECRYPT II, the cryptographic algorithms used in
Bitcoin are expected to be strong until at least 2030. (After that, it
will not be too difficult to transition to different algorithms.)
|
|
|
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
|
|
|
dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
|
|
January 31, 2013, 08:37:38 PM |
|
Here's a summary of the recent big bets. I wanted to see how s.dice made its money back. The first line says "there were 17 winning bets of 10 BTC on lessthan 12000 and 125 losing bets with the same stake and target, making a net loss (for the player) for 506 BTC": wins losses ------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- count target stake profit total profit count target stake profit total profit net profit ------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------- 17 <12000 10 43.35211333 736.98592661 125 <12000 10 -9.9505 -1243.8125 -506.82657339 2 <12000 20 86.70472666 173.40945332 8 <12000 20 -19.9005 -159.204 14.20545332
32 <16000 10 30.02646000 960.84672 77 <16000 10 -9.9505 -766.1885 194.65822 14 <16000 50 150.13430000 2101.8802 30 <16000 50 -49.7505 -1492.515 609.3652
18 <24000 100 167.01256666 3006.22619988 39 <24000 100 -99.5005 -3880.5195 -874.29330012 19 <24000 150 250.51910000 4759.8629 52 <24000 150 -149.2505 -7761.026 -3001.1631 2 <24000 200 334.02563333 668.05126666 6 <24000 200 -199.0005 -1194.003 -525.95173334 2 <24000 250 417.53216666 835.06433332 19 <24000 250 -248.7505 -4726.2595 -3891.19516668
84 <32000 100 100.38430000 8432.2812 72 <32000 100 -99.5005 -7164.036 1268.2452 74 <32768 100 95.69950000 7081.763 82 <32768 100 -99.5005 -8159.041 -1077.278 ------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------- 28756.37119979 -36546.605 -7790.23380021 ------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------- -------------- The majority of the losses were on the lessthan 24000 bets. Here are graphs of the probabilities of the number of wins for 3 cases. In all 3 cases the actual number of wins is pretty far left on the graph: stake 150 BTC, target <24000, 71 bets, 19 wins, 52 losses: stake 250 BTC, target <24000, 21 bets, 2 wins, 19 losses: stake (all 4 stakes), target <24000, 157 bets, 41 wins, 116 losses: Incidentally, how's the font look in the table inside the 'quote' above? It's much easier to read than the one I usually use, but does it show up well for you too?
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
ingrownpocket
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
|
|
January 31, 2013, 08:56:18 PM |
|
Thanks for the graphs dooglus. The guy really had a run of bad luck there BTW, both fonts: New: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$ Old: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$ I prefer the old one. Not that there is much difference.
|
|
|
|
m_yaw
Member
Offline
Activity: 113
Merit: 10
|
|
January 31, 2013, 08:57:53 PM |
|
can anyone make an educated guess about s.dice's profits this month (if any)?
|
|
|
|
ingrownpocket
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
|
|
January 31, 2013, 09:00:35 PM |
|
can anyone make an educated guess about s.dice's profits this month (if any)?
December 31, 2012Final SD Profit: 33274.25422617 BTC (1.879%) January 01, 2013Final SD Profit: 43115.08527065 BTC (2.342%) TodayFinal SD Profit: 53139.67029635 BTC (1.795%)
|
|
|
|
Kryptox
Member
Offline
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
|
|
January 31, 2013, 09:02:35 PM |
|
Thank you dooglus for explaining this so clearly! I didn't realize SD allows you to split a single transaction into multiple bets now. From what I understand, there was an update to the Bitcoin network not too long ago that doesn't actually allow you to use the exact same transaction ID twice.
It's not splitting a transaction into multiple transactions. It's putting multiple bets into a single transaction. If you're using the reference (satoshi) client, go to the 'send coins' tab and then click 'add recipient' a few times. That way you can send bets to many different satoshidice addresses in a single transaction. You can't send multiple bets to the same address using the standard client, but apparently can with some of the other clients. Right, I realized this shortly after my response. I don't actually play SD - I think I've maybe placed 2 or 3 minimum bets in the past but I'm finding the math behind it quite interesting, along with how they are relying on a hash to spit out a lucky number. I suppose it's probably the best way to make the game provable for now. I just happened to come across some of your posts on stackexchange. Really enjoy reading your posts. I read an interesting article regarding sha256 statistical patterns by Femtosecond, as well as a few other authors. From what I gathered, SD could actually create an even larger edge for themselves by being selective in the hashes they decide to use. Conversely, players could also be selective in choosing the transaction ID's they decide to actually submit to give themselves the edge, including possibly sending transactions ID's that hash out identically to previously calculated hashes. That's my understanding anyway, and I'm not sure how that applies to hmac sha512 but I'd guess it would be similar. I might just start playing SD!
|
|
|
|
m_yaw
Member
Offline
Activity: 113
Merit: 10
|
|
January 31, 2013, 09:03:15 PM |
|
"if any": in the latest chart the black line hasn't caught up to the red line yet.
I always thought the 50.000 number is all-time profit not this month's profit.
|
|
|
|
ingrownpocket
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
|
|
January 31, 2013, 09:06:15 PM |
|
I always thought the 50.000 number is all-time profit not this month's profit.
You were right, the 'Final SD Profit' is the all-time profit.
|
|
|
|
FTWbitcoinFTW
|
|
January 31, 2013, 09:37:47 PM |
|
can anyone make an educated guess about s.dice's profits this month (if any)?
About 20K BTC
|
Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone. it has lots of buttery taste..
|
|
|
dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
|
|
January 31, 2013, 11:07:12 PM |
|
I prefer the old one. Not that there is much difference.
I was talking about the difference between these two: New: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$ Old: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$ For me, the first one is much clearer. The 2nd looks kind of grey, not black. Here's a screenshot of how they look to me:
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
|
|
January 31, 2013, 11:18:48 PM |
|
"if any": in the latest chart the black line hasn't caught up to the red line yet.
The red line is the expected profit, based on the bet volume so far. The black line is the actual profit. As you say, the black line didn't catch the red line yet, but that just means the overall profit isn't quite 1.9% of turnover (it's 1.86% of turnover). So the site is performing a little worse than expected, but it's still doing amazingly well, and making huge profits. (Note, the house edge hasn't always been 1.9%; it has changed a couple of times in the past. And also note that the red line is the expected profit after transaction fees are taken into account, so a little less than 1.9% of turnover).
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
ingrownpocket
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
|
|
January 31, 2013, 11:20:53 PM |
|
|
|
|
|
2112
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2128
Merit: 1068
|
|
February 01, 2013, 12:25:45 AM |
|
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/825/snaph.png/Lets see if my reply with imageshack link works. Well, it appears to be working for now. Both fonts are quite readable on my end. The forum software prepends some proxy by anonymouse; but when I save and compare the images they are identical.
|
|
|
|
dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
|
|
February 01, 2013, 01:26:17 AM |
|
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/825/snaph.png/Lets see if my reply with imageshack link works. Well, it appears to be working for now. Both fonts are quite readable on my end. The forum software prepends some proxy by anonymouse; but when I save and compare the images they are identical. Thanks for that.
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
|
|
February 01, 2013, 05:18:22 AM |
|
Two things: 1) The black line very nearly caught the red line. 2) I never noticed before how the graph sometimes goes back in time, due to the way that some blocks have an older timestamp than the preceding block.
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
dserrano5
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1974
Merit: 1029
|
|
February 01, 2013, 09:12:18 AM |
|
New: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$ Old: asdsadasdad23101010 ... ?!"#%#$ For me, the first one is much clearer. The 2nd looks kind of grey, not black. Same here. First one has way more contrast.
|
|
|
|
Herbert
|
|
February 01, 2013, 09:15:51 AM |
|
2) I never noticed before how the graph sometimes goes back in time, due to the way that some blocks have an older timestamp than the preceding block.
This looks funny.
|
www.bitcoinmonitor.net - Free payment notification via email, newsfeed, xpmm/jabber, url callback and full API access! Send SMS with www.txt4coins.net! No registration, pay-per-use, full API access, bulk messages - All inclusive!
|
|
|
smickles
|
|
February 01, 2013, 08:24:41 PM |
|
<snip>
Incidentally, how's the font look in the table inside the 'quote' above? It's much easier to read than the one I usually use, but does it show up well for you too?
It comes out as 'Source Code Pro' for me, so it looks like the best font out there
|
|
|
|
dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
|
|
February 01, 2013, 08:39:24 PM |
|
|
Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
|
|
|
Bowjob
|
|
February 01, 2013, 08:43:24 PM |
|
Looks like we spooked the whale!
|
It seemed like a good idea at the time.
|
|
|
|