Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[dooglus]

The 'pending liabilities' code is still disabled due to the large amount of pending bets.  I'll leave it off until the number gets sane again.

Total of 15147 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-11 12:35pm (up to block 230856)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   124367 |       3 (0.00002) |  122458 |    1906 |    1528.75 |    3842.12 |   145.07 |  -2313.37 | 251.325
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7473 |       0 (0.00000) |    6919 |     554 |     118.22 |       0.18 |    22.24 |    118.04 |   0.153
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9349 |       1 (0.00011) |    8873 |     475 |     142.58 |     160.13 |    14.55 |    -17.54 | 112.306
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    19152 |       5 (0.00027) |   18653 |     494 |     396.63 |     432.83 |    10.13 |    -36.20 | 109.128
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    20469 |       2 (0.00010) |   20003 |     464 |     702.68 |     205.97 |    22.14 |    496.71 |  29.313
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    25963 |      11 (0.00043) |   25534 |     418 |    1465.55 |    1538.11 |     1.46 |    -72.56 | 104.951
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    28970 |      35 (0.00123) |   28430 |     505 |    2107.95 |    1740.00 |   116.93 |    367.95 |  82.545
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21141 |      38 (0.00184) |   20622 |     481 |    2393.57 |    1562.96 |    48.45 |    830.60 |  65.298
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26240 |     114 (0.00441) |   25719 |     407 |    6008.20 |    8656.18 |    13.25 |  -2647.97 | 144.073
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37686 |     300 (0.00812) |   36649 |     737 |    8336.82 |    6909.68 |    10.15 |   1427.14 |  82.881
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   135827 |    2055 (0.01519) |  133198 |     574 |   41327.41 |   36407.84 |     2.26 |   4919.57 |  88.096
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25757 |     588 (0.02316) |   24799 |     370 |    7969.10 |    8562.22 |    15.13 |   -593.11 | 107.443
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    86549 |    2645 (0.03071) |   83497 |     407 |   41102.14 |   36724.58 |     9.40 |   4377.56 |  89.350
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30475 |    1392 (0.04640) |   28605 |     478 |    9821.57 |   10640.89 |    25.36 |   -819.31 | 108.342
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36448 |    2234 (0.06198) |   33808 |     406 |    7736.26 |    7524.71 |    31.41 |    211.55 |  97.265
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51463 |    4682 (0.09187) |   46281 |     500 |   16842.63 |   18455.68 |     7.47 |  -1613.05 | 109.577
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   200043 |   24450 (0.12256) |  175044 |     549 |   96436.43 |   95216.75 |   100.64 |   1219.67 |  98.735
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   111554 |   20336 (0.18329) |   90612 |     606 |  175814.60 |  176796.82 |  3315.13 |   -982.21 | 100.559
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   276674 |   67430 (0.24427) |  208617 |     627 |  373554.63 |  359522.84 |  2322.68 |  14031.79 |  96.244
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   268701 |   98586 (0.36776) |  169483 |     632 |  590921.83 |  582712.94 |  1013.38 |   8208.89 |  98.611
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1183532 |  576763 (0.48806) |  604972 |    1797 |  907773.46 |  889545.33 |  2925.48 |  18228.13 |  97.992
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   667872 |  332958 (0.49955) |  333554 |    1360 |  683820.40 |  666782.17 |  6522.13 |  17038.22 |  97.508
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   382075 |  280286 (0.73509) |  101010 |     779 |  308480.42 |  301347.30 |  6172.39 |   7133.11 |  97.688
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    86273 |   68016 (0.79395) |   17652 |     605 |   64713.21 |   63278.98 |  1187.85 |   1434.23 |  97.784
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    77977 |   66247 (0.85692) |   11061 |     669 |   81756.47 |   80966.23 |   400.88 |    790.24 |  99.033
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   122911 |  111964 (0.91613) |   10250 |     697 |   75207.40 |   74109.47 |     1.12 |   1097.92 |  98.540
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    20215 |   18435 (0.97949) |     386 |    1394 |   24866.88 |   24449.55 |   240.63 |    417.32 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3964674 | 1625050           | 2321027 |   18597 |  821037.80 |  806538.20 |   291.62 |  14499.59 |  98.234
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120482 |   54526           |   65662 |     294 | 2710308.14 | 2651554.38 | 24406.21 |  58753.75 |  97.832
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4085156 | 1679576           | 2386689 |   18891 | 3531345.94 | 3458092.59 | 24697.83 |  73253.35 |  97.926
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73253.35290889 BTC (2.074%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3301.50937500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69951.84353389 BTC (1.981%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69951.84353389 BTC (1.981%)
Profit This Month:           2108.91696627 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13083326  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7495803  (57.3%)
Blockchain MB:   5694.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3091.0  (54.3%)

[1713461213]

1713461213

[1713461213]

1713461213

[1713461213]

1713461213

[bitpop]

Are they even beginning to process pending transactions? At this point, it's a GREAT take and run opportunity.

[Zaih]

Seems like business has rly slowed don for S.Dice. the expected profit is pretty straight. I woulda thought it would be going crazy right now with people trying to make back losses

And I don't see how people can be worried about the pending payments. There's no doubt that it will be sorted out really soon.

[dooglus]

Are they even beginning to process pending transactions? At this point, it's a GREAT take and run opportunity.

I don't think they stopped processing transactions.  They've just been processing them much slower than people have been betting.

I'm wondering whether the 15k bets 'unaccounted for' is an error in my script.  I'm checking into it now.

Total of 15185 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-12 11:51am (up to block 231019)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   125136 |       3 (0.00002) |  123224 |    1909 |    1538.56 |    3842.17 |   145.08 |  -2303.60 | 249.724
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     7694 |       0 (0.00000) |    7140 |     554 |     120.50 |       0.19 |    22.24 |    120.31 |   0.159
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9722 |       1 (0.00011) |    9245 |     476 |     146.53 |     160.15 |    14.55 |    -13.62 | 109.295
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    19171 |       5 (0.00027) |   18672 |     494 |     396.89 |     432.83 |    10.13 |    -35.94 | 109.057
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    20698 |       3 (0.00015) |   20230 |     465 |     705.15 |     245.96 |    22.14 |    459.18 |  34.881
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    26392 |      11 (0.00042) |   25963 |     418 |    1470.03 |    1538.14 |     1.46 |    -68.10 | 104.633
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29004 |      35 (0.00123) |   28464 |     505 |    2108.72 |    1740.00 |   116.93 |    368.71 |  82.515
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21158 |      38 (0.00184) |   20639 |     481 |    2393.90 |    1562.96 |    48.45 |    830.93 |  65.289
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26276 |     114 (0.00441) |   25754 |     408 |    6009.85 |    8656.18 |    13.26 |  -2646.33 | 144.033
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37803 |     300 (0.00809) |   36766 |     737 |    8339.25 |    6909.69 |    10.15 |   1429.56 |  82.857
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   136093 |    2062 (0.01522) |  133454 |     577 |   41338.60 |   36418.13 |     2.27 |   4920.47 |  88.097
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25778 |     589 (0.02318) |   24818 |     371 |    7969.62 |    8562.65 |    15.13 |   -593.02 | 107.441
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    86733 |    2648 (0.03067) |   83678 |     407 |   41128.91 |   36725.67 |     9.40 |   4403.24 |  89.294
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30514 |    1395 (0.04644) |   28641 |     478 |    9822.67 |   10641.67 |    25.36 |   -818.99 | 108.338
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36507 |    2238 (0.06199) |   33863 |     406 |    7737.31 |    7525.75 |    31.41 |    211.55 |  97.266
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51597 |    4695 (0.09189) |   46400 |     502 |   16849.96 |   18463.63 |     7.47 |  -1613.67 | 109.577
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   200252 |   24481 (0.12259) |  175220 |     551 |   96562.28 |   95433.83 |   100.65 |   1128.44 |  98.831
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   111919 |   20399 (0.18326) |   90911 |     609 |  175862.45 |  176839.85 |  3315.13 |   -977.39 | 100.556
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   277407 |   67612 (0.24429) |  209161 |     634 |  373875.09 |  360273.75 |  2322.72 |  13601.33 |  96.362
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   269642 |   98935 (0.36778) |  170072 |     635 |  591807.58 |  583042.84 |  1013.41 |   8764.74 |  98.519
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1184936 |  577436 (0.48806) |  605700 |    1800 |  908122.34 |  889927.89 |  2925.50 |  18194.44 |  97.996
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   669412 |  333726 (0.49956) |  334320 |    1366 |  684677.21 |  667699.72 |  6522.14 |  16977.48 |  97.520
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   383296 |  281210 (0.73516) |  101303 |     783 |  308632.78 |  301468.61 |  6172.42 |   7164.16 |  97.679
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    86661 |   68324 (0.79399) |   17727 |     610 |   64766.65 |   63330.98 |  1187.87 |   1435.67 |  97.783
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    78209 |   66433 (0.85679) |   11104 |     672 |   81809.13 |   81022.14 |   400.88 |    786.99 |  99.038
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   123712 |  112686 (0.91615) |   10313 |     713 |   75278.03 |   74178.45 |     1.21 |   1099.57 |  98.539
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    20341 |   18538 (0.97950) |     388 |    1415 |   24871.78 |   24454.36 |   240.66 |    417.41 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3975462 | 1629333           | 2327447 |   18682 |  822135.04 |  807662.48 |   291.92 |  14472.56 |  98.240
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120601 |   54584           |   65723 |     294 | 2712206.85 | 2653435.85 | 24406.21 |  58770.99 |  97.833
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4096063 | 1683917           | 2393170 |   18976 | 3534341.90 | 3461098.33 | 24698.14 |  73243.56 |  97.928
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73243.56522736 BTC (2.072%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3313.00317500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69930.56205236 BTC (1.979%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69930.56205236 BTC (1.979%)
Profit This Month:           2087.63548474 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13139978  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7515600  (57.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5720.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3099.2  (54.2%)

[jborkl]

I placed a bet earlier, it went right through and was returned properly. It showed up in the stats also

[dooglus]

Having checked, there really are over 15000 bets pending settlement, but most of them are below the minimum bet.  I didn't used to count those, but recently accidentally started counting them.

I'll re-ran the script and had it ignore bets under the minimum, and:

"Total of 35 bets unaccounted for."

So that 15k number was including rejected bets.  Oops!

Here's an updated report with data from the most recent blocks:

Total of 50 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-12 05:01pm (up to block 231055)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   125289 |       3 (0.00002) |  123375 |    1911 |    1540.22 |    3842.18 |   145.08 |  -2301.95 | 249.455
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     8498 |       0 (0.00000) |    7944 |     554 |     128.55 |       0.23 |    22.24 |    128.32 |   0.181
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9724 |       1 (0.00011) |    9247 |     476 |     146.56 |     160.15 |    14.55 |    -13.59 | 109.273
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    19173 |       5 (0.00027) |   18674 |     494 |     396.91 |     432.83 |    10.13 |    -35.92 | 109.052
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    20703 |       3 (0.00015) |   20235 |     465 |     705.20 |     245.96 |    22.14 |    459.23 |  34.879
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    26397 |      11 (0.00042) |   25968 |     418 |    1470.08 |    1538.14 |     1.46 |    -68.05 | 104.629
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29009 |      35 (0.00123) |   28468 |     506 |    2108.76 |    1740.00 |   116.93 |    368.75 |  82.513
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21161 |      38 (0.00184) |   20642 |     481 |    2393.93 |    1562.96 |    48.45 |    830.97 |  65.288
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26284 |     114 (0.00441) |   25762 |     408 |    6009.98 |    8656.18 |    13.26 |  -2646.20 | 144.030
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    37827 |     300 (0.00809) |   36790 |     737 |    8340.45 |    6909.70 |    10.15 |   1430.75 |  82.846
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   136146 |    2063 (0.01522) |  133506 |     577 |   41339.52 |   36418.77 |     2.27 |   4920.75 |  88.097
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25779 |     589 (0.02318) |   24819 |     371 |    7969.63 |    8562.65 |    15.13 |   -593.01 | 107.441
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    86849 |    2653 (0.03069) |   83789 |     407 |   41132.39 |   36727.29 |     9.40 |   4405.10 |  89.290
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30521 |    1395 (0.04643) |   28647 |     479 |    9822.75 |   10641.67 |    25.37 |   -818.91 | 108.337
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36508 |    2238 (0.06199) |   33864 |     406 |    7737.33 |    7525.75 |    31.41 |    211.57 |  97.266
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51626 |    4697 (0.09187) |   46427 |     502 |   16851.83 |   18463.96 |     7.47 |  -1612.13 | 109.567
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   200471 |   24508 (0.12259) |  175411 |     552 |   96575.62 |   95439.60 |   100.65 |   1136.02 |  98.824
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   112003 |   20413 (0.18325) |   90981 |     609 |  175868.73 |  176843.40 |  3315.13 |   -974.66 | 100.554
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   277585 |   67656 (0.24429) |  209295 |     634 |  373912.85 |  360285.16 |  2322.72 |  13627.69 |  96.355
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   269993 |   99045 (0.36771) |  170313 |     635 |  591873.36 |  583076.87 |  1013.41 |   8796.49 |  98.514
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1185389 |  577638 (0.48804) |  605948 |    1803 |  908206.39 |  890012.68 |  2925.51 |  18193.71 |  97.997
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   669868 |  333954 (0.49956) |  334544 |    1370 |  684831.19 |  667818.36 |  6522.15 |  17012.83 |  97.516
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   383543 |  281386 (0.73515) |  101372 |     785 |  308665.36 |  301499.77 |  6172.43 |   7165.58 |  97.679
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    86727 |   68381 (0.79405) |   17736 |     610 |   64771.05 |   63335.84 |  1187.87 |   1435.20 |  97.784
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    78275 |   66492 (0.85682) |   11111 |     672 |   81816.99 |   81030.58 |   400.88 |    786.40 |  99.039
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   123863 |  112813 (0.91607) |   10336 |     714 |   75298.70 |   74197.17 |     1.21 |   1101.52 |  98.537
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    20366 |   18558 (0.97952) |     388 |    1420 |   24873.48 |   24456.07 |   240.67 |    417.41 |  98.322
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3978956 | 1630398           | 2329856 |   18702 |  822457.73 |  807902.60 |   291.97 |  14555.13 |  98.230
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120621 |   54591           |   65736 |     294 | 2712330.20 | 2653521.45 | 24406.21 |  58808.75 |  97.832
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4099577 | 1684989           | 2395592 |   18996 | 3534787.94 | 3461424.05 | 24698.18 |  73363.88 |  97.925
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73363.88985134 BTC (2.075%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3316.70557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70047.18427634 BTC (1.982%)
Pending Liabilities:           43.74421794 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70003.44005840 BTC (1.980%)
Profit This Month:           2160.51349078 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13154500  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7521380  (57.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5727.0  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3101.6  (54.2%)

[Picklee]

Profit This Month:           2160.51349078 BTC

This number looks better with each report. 

[ThickAsThieves]

Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.

[FTWbitcoinFTW]

Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.

It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march  !?

[thoughtfan]

Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.

It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march  !?

Yes, I'm not seeing that happening either - especially given that many will have bought them at a much higher price than today.  My guess is they might treat them with a little more care.  However there's always the new influx which I still suspect make up the majority of plays.

Also we can't necessarily expect - even were people to play with their bitcoins more fast and loose - for that in any particular month to be reflected in the profit and subsequent dividend.  What matters more to me is the ultra-steady 1.9% edge line because that's indicative of longer term profits and this month - the last few days in particular- have shown it getting pretty close to flat.

However I'm tending to believe evoorhees when he says there's stuff going on behind the scenes on the development/advertising front so we may well be seeing that on a more significant rise again soon.

As an aside, does anybody know of any fundamental reason the stocks are on the rise again?  I suspect unless we see a large dump bringing it back down it is because those who were taking their time over a couple of weeks dumping every recovery have finally reduced their holding sufficiently to stop, thereby allowing the demand that had never quite disappeared, to have their effect on price, thus encouraging others who had been waiting to see if it would bottom out do do likewise.

Either way, on all counts I have nothing to complain about and will just use this opportunity to thank dooglus once more for continuing to provide this data in visual form   Cheers

[kgo]

As an aside, does anybody know of any fundamental reason the stocks are on the rise again?  I suspect unless we see a large dump bringing it back down it is because those who were taking their time over a couple of weeks dumping every recovery have finally reduced their holding sufficiently to stop, thereby allowing the demand that had never quite disappeared, to have their effect on price, thus encouraging others who had been waiting to see if it would bottom out do do likewise.

I think people wanted cash on hand so if the bubble got too crazy they'd be able to cash out at the top.  That drove the price down.  Now that the bubble seems to be over, people would rather invest than hold cash.

[ThickAsThieves]

Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.

It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march  !?

Yes, I'm not seeing that happening either - especially given that many will have bought them at a much higher price than today.  My guess is they might treat them with a little more care.  However there's always the new influx which I still suspect make up the majority of plays.

You both don't see it because you aren't looking in the right place. Hint: "BTC In"

[thoughtfan]

Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.

It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march  !?

Yes, I'm not seeing that happening either - especially given that many will have bought them at a much higher price than today.  My guess is they might treat them with a little more care.  However there's always the new influx which I still suspect make up the majority of plays.

You both don't see it because you aren't looking in the right place. Hint: "BTC In"

If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat.  Have I missed something here?

[ThickAsThieves]

The sums provided are all-time cumulative. You need to do some math to compare changes in BTC In over time. More hints: Compare the daily BTC In from the last 2 or 3 reports. Then compare the BTC In for the last four 4-week periods. Then realize that SDICE income is highly tied to BTC/USD.

[dooglus]

If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat.  Have I missed something here?

I don't think so.  I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability.

Total of 144 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-13 08:36pm (up to block 231237)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   125968 |       3 (0.00002) |  124043 |    1922 |    1551.40 |    3842.23 |   145.13 |  -2290.82 | 247.661
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     8515 |       0 (0.00000) |    7959 |     556 |     128.77 |       0.23 |    22.25 |    128.54 |   0.181
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9770 |       1 (0.00011) |    9292 |     477 |     147.60 |     160.16 |    14.55 |    -12.56 | 108.510
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    19673 |       5 (0.00026) |   19170 |     498 |     417.52 |     432.94 |    10.13 |    -15.41 | 103.693
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    21404 |       3 (0.00014) |   20934 |     467 |     739.86 |     246.14 |    22.14 |    493.72 |  33.268
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    27187 |      12 (0.00045) |   26756 |     419 |    1521.88 |    1658.33 |     1.47 |   -136.44 | 108.966
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29089 |      35 (0.00122) |   28547 |     507 |    2110.64 |    1740.01 |   116.93 |    370.62 |  82.440
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21223 |      38 (0.00183) |   20702 |     483 |    2395.80 |    1562.97 |    48.45 |    832.83 |  65.238
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26369 |     114 (0.00439) |   25846 |     409 |    6011.96 |    8656.19 |    13.26 |  -2644.23 | 143.983
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38009 |     302 (0.00810) |   36967 |     740 |    8352.14 |    6912.51 |    10.16 |   1439.63 |  82.763
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   136890 |    2076 (0.01523) |  134233 |     581 |   41395.30 |   36496.35 |     2.29 |   4898.94 |  88.165
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25851 |     590 (0.02316) |   24890 |     371 |    7975.84 |    8570.25 |    15.13 |   -594.41 | 107.453
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    87362 |    2674 (0.03075) |   84279 |     409 |   41144.78 |   36752.71 |     9.40 |   4392.07 |  89.325
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30614 |    1400 (0.04646) |   28735 |     479 |    9825.47 |   10646.78 |    25.37 |   -821.30 | 108.359
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36560 |    2242 (0.06201) |   33911 |     407 |    7739.90 |    7527.54 |    31.41 |    212.35 |  97.256
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    51750 |    4714 (0.09199) |   46532 |     504 |   16855.84 |   18468.89 |     7.48 |  -1613.04 | 109.570
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   200914 |   24561 (0.12258) |  175799 |     554 |   96593.71 |   95463.24 |   100.65 |   1130.47 |  98.830
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   112528 |   20515 (0.18331) |   91401 |     612 |  175910.97 |  176882.52 |  3315.14 |   -971.54 | 100.552
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   278373 |   67850 (0.24430) |  209886 |     637 |  373966.53 |  360338.01 |  2322.73 |  13628.51 |  96.356
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   270921 |   99377 (0.36768) |  170905 |     639 |  591960.13 |  583210.48 |  1013.41 |   8749.64 |  98.522
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1187809 |  578808 (0.48804) |  607186 |    1815 |  908600.66 |  890449.91 |  2925.54 |  18150.74 |  98.002
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   672307 |  335163 (0.49956) |  335747 |    1397 |  685467.46 |  668471.61 |  6522.25 |  16995.84 |  97.521
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   385265 |  282691 (0.73527) |  101782 |     792 |  308804.38 |  301647.77 |  6172.46 |   7156.61 |  97.682
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    87177 |   68737 (0.79408) |   17825 |     615 |   64817.86 |   63382.53 |  1187.89 |   1435.33 |  97.786
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    78634 |   66790 (0.85679) |   11164 |     680 |   81887.38 |   81099.99 |   400.91 |    787.39 |  99.038
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   124756 |  113626 (0.91610) |   10406 |     724 |   75394.04 |   74290.55 |     1.27 |   1103.49 |  98.536
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    20546 |   18705 (0.97932) |     395 |    1446 |   24889.63 |   24471.76 |   240.70 |    417.87 |  98.321
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3994793 | 1636409           | 2339538 |   18846 |  823849.13 |  809333.46 |   292.41 |  14515.67 |  98.238
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   120671 |   54623           |   65754 |     294 | 2712758.45 | 2654049.25 | 24406.21 |  58709.19 |  97.836
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4115464 | 1691032           | 2405292 |   19140 | 3536607.58 | 3463382.71 | 24698.62 |  73224.87 |  97.930
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73224.87328657 BTC (2.070%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3333.32577500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69891.54751157 BTC (1.976%)
Pending Liabilities:          -18.29921425 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69909.84672582 BTC (1.977%)
Profit This Month:           2066.92015820 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13215515  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7549203  (57.1%)
Blockchain MB:   5753.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3113.0  (54.1%)

[zakoliverz]

Hi! I am very much a beginner myself, but one thought would be to look at running a custom algorithm development system. This would be helpful if you expect to see the effects between many other variables that may be useful.

[ThickAsThieves]

If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat.  Have I missed something here?

I don't think so.  I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability.

The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods:   
   BTC IN
Jan 16th   1992532
Feb 13th   1174083
Mar 13th   240936
Apr 9th   121371

[thoughtfan]

If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat.  Have I missed something here?

I don't think so.  I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability.

The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods:   
   BTC IN
Jan 16th   1992532
Feb 13th   1174083
Mar 13th   240936
Apr 9th   121371

Thanks both.  That clears that one up for me and is affirmed by looking at the upper chart of dooglus's pair for the same time frames where we can see the 1.9% edge line showing proportionally the same jumps over the same time periods.  I was under the understanding however that the primary reason for the massive drop after Feb was more to do with the disappearance of a 'whale' rather than anything to do with usd/btc.  But maybe ThickAsThieves, your assumtion has some merit in explaining the halving in revenue between the latter pair of periods.  This is not as obvious just by looking at the charts - which lazily has been my means of keeping tabs on how my investment is doing.

[MPOE-PR]

Are you the guy in the pic?

Are you?

I am the gal in the pic, yes.

[ThickAsThieves]

If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat.  Have I missed something here?

I don't think so.  I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability.

The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods:   
   BTC IN
Jan 16th   1992532
Feb 13th   1174083
Mar 13th   240936
Apr 9th   121371

Thanks both.  That clears that one up for me and is affirmed by looking at the upper chart of dooglus's pair for the same time frames where we can see the 1.9% edge line showing proportionally the same jumps over the same time periods.  I was under the understanding however that the primary reason for the massive drop after Feb was more to do with the disappearance of a 'whale' rather than anything to do with usd/btc.  But maybe ThickAsThieves, your assumtion has some merit in explaining the halving in revenue between the latter pair of periods.  This is not as obvious just by looking at the charts - which lazily has been my means of keeping tabs on how my investment is doing.

The whales certainly distorted things. Would be great to have them back though.