dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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April 11, 2013, 08:46:02 PM |
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The 'pending liabilities' code is still disabled due to the large amount of pending bets. I'll leave it off until the number gets sane again. Total of 15147 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Apr-11 12:35pm (up to block 230856)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 124367 | 3 (0.00002) | 122458 | 1906 | 1528.75 | 3842.12 | 145.07 | -2313.37 | 251.325 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 7473 | 0 (0.00000) | 6919 | 554 | 118.22 | 0.18 | 22.24 | 118.04 | 0.153 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 9349 | 1 (0.00011) | 8873 | 475 | 142.58 | 160.13 | 14.55 | -17.54 | 112.306 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 19152 | 5 (0.00027) | 18653 | 494 | 396.63 | 432.83 | 10.13 | -36.20 | 109.128 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 20469 | 2 (0.00010) | 20003 | 464 | 702.68 | 205.97 | 22.14 | 496.71 | 29.313 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 25963 | 11 (0.00043) | 25534 | 418 | 1465.55 | 1538.11 | 1.46 | -72.56 | 104.951 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 28970 | 35 (0.00123) | 28430 | 505 | 2107.95 | 1740.00 | 116.93 | 367.95 | 82.545 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21141 | 38 (0.00184) | 20622 | 481 | 2393.57 | 1562.96 | 48.45 | 830.60 | 65.298 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26240 | 114 (0.00441) | 25719 | 407 | 6008.20 | 8656.18 | 13.25 | -2647.97 | 144.073 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 37686 | 300 (0.00812) | 36649 | 737 | 8336.82 | 6909.68 | 10.15 | 1427.14 | 82.881 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 135827 | 2055 (0.01519) | 133198 | 574 | 41327.41 | 36407.84 | 2.26 | 4919.57 | 88.096 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 25757 | 588 (0.02316) | 24799 | 370 | 7969.10 | 8562.22 | 15.13 | -593.11 | 107.443 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 86549 | 2645 (0.03071) | 83497 | 407 | 41102.14 | 36724.58 | 9.40 | 4377.56 | 89.350 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 30475 | 1392 (0.04640) | 28605 | 478 | 9821.57 | 10640.89 | 25.36 | -819.31 | 108.342 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 36448 | 2234 (0.06198) | 33808 | 406 | 7736.26 | 7524.71 | 31.41 | 211.55 | 97.265 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 51463 | 4682 (0.09187) | 46281 | 500 | 16842.63 | 18455.68 | 7.47 | -1613.05 | 109.577 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 200043 | 24450 (0.12256) | 175044 | 549 | 96436.43 | 95216.75 | 100.64 | 1219.67 | 98.735 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 111554 | 20336 (0.18329) | 90612 | 606 | 175814.60 | 176796.82 | 3315.13 | -982.21 | 100.559 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 276674 | 67430 (0.24427) | 208617 | 627 | 373554.63 | 359522.84 | 2322.68 | 14031.79 | 96.244 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 268701 | 98586 (0.36776) | 169483 | 632 | 590921.83 | 582712.94 | 1013.38 | 8208.89 | 98.611 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1183532 | 576763 (0.48806) | 604972 | 1797 | 907773.46 | 889545.33 | 2925.48 | 18228.13 | 97.992 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 667872 | 332958 (0.49955) | 333554 | 1360 | 683820.40 | 666782.17 | 6522.13 | 17038.22 | 97.508 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 382075 | 280286 (0.73509) | 101010 | 779 | 308480.42 | 301347.30 | 6172.39 | 7133.11 | 97.688 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 86273 | 68016 (0.79395) | 17652 | 605 | 64713.21 | 63278.98 | 1187.85 | 1434.23 | 97.784 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 77977 | 66247 (0.85692) | 11061 | 669 | 81756.47 | 80966.23 | 400.88 | 790.24 | 99.033 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 122911 | 111964 (0.91613) | 10250 | 697 | 75207.40 | 74109.47 | 1.12 | 1097.92 | 98.540 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 20215 | 18435 (0.97949) | 386 | 1394 | 24866.88 | 24449.55 | 240.63 | 417.32 | 98.322 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3964674 | 1625050 | 2321027 | 18597 | 821037.80 | 806538.20 | 291.62 | 14499.59 | 98.234 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 120482 | 54526 | 65662 | 294 | 2710308.14 | 2651554.38 | 24406.21 | 58753.75 | 97.832 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4085156 | 1679576 | 2386689 | 18891 | 3531345.94 | 3458092.59 | 24697.83 | 73253.35 | 97.926 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 73253.35290889 BTC (2.074%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3301.50937500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 69951.84353389 BTC (1.981%) Pending Liabilities: 0.00000000 BTC Final SD Profit: 69951.84353389 BTC (1.981%) Profit This Month: 2108.91696627 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 13083326 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7495803 (57.3%) Blockchain MB: 5694.3 : SatoshiDice MB: 3091.0 (54.3%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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bitpop
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1060
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April 12, 2013, 01:25:18 AM |
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Are they even beginning to process pending transactions? At this point, it's a GREAT take and run opportunity.
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Zaih
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April 12, 2013, 02:29:23 AM |
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Seems like business has rly slowed don for S.Dice. the expected profit is pretty straight. I woulda thought it would be going crazy right now with people trying to make back losses And I don't see how people can be worried about the pending payments. There's no doubt that it will be sorted out really soon.
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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April 12, 2013, 06:56:23 PM |
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Are they even beginning to process pending transactions? At this point, it's a GREAT take and run opportunity.
I don't think they stopped processing transactions. They've just been processing them much slower than people have been betting. I'm wondering whether the 15k bets 'unaccounted for' is an error in my script. I'm checking into it now. Total of 15185 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Apr-12 11:51am (up to block 231019)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 125136 | 3 (0.00002) | 123224 | 1909 | 1538.56 | 3842.17 | 145.08 | -2303.60 | 249.724 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 7694 | 0 (0.00000) | 7140 | 554 | 120.50 | 0.19 | 22.24 | 120.31 | 0.159 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 9722 | 1 (0.00011) | 9245 | 476 | 146.53 | 160.15 | 14.55 | -13.62 | 109.295 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 19171 | 5 (0.00027) | 18672 | 494 | 396.89 | 432.83 | 10.13 | -35.94 | 109.057 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 20698 | 3 (0.00015) | 20230 | 465 | 705.15 | 245.96 | 22.14 | 459.18 | 34.881 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 26392 | 11 (0.00042) | 25963 | 418 | 1470.03 | 1538.14 | 1.46 | -68.10 | 104.633 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 29004 | 35 (0.00123) | 28464 | 505 | 2108.72 | 1740.00 | 116.93 | 368.71 | 82.515 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21158 | 38 (0.00184) | 20639 | 481 | 2393.90 | 1562.96 | 48.45 | 830.93 | 65.289 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26276 | 114 (0.00441) | 25754 | 408 | 6009.85 | 8656.18 | 13.26 | -2646.33 | 144.033 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 37803 | 300 (0.00809) | 36766 | 737 | 8339.25 | 6909.69 | 10.15 | 1429.56 | 82.857 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 136093 | 2062 (0.01522) | 133454 | 577 | 41338.60 | 36418.13 | 2.27 | 4920.47 | 88.097 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 25778 | 589 (0.02318) | 24818 | 371 | 7969.62 | 8562.65 | 15.13 | -593.02 | 107.441 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 86733 | 2648 (0.03067) | 83678 | 407 | 41128.91 | 36725.67 | 9.40 | 4403.24 | 89.294 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 30514 | 1395 (0.04644) | 28641 | 478 | 9822.67 | 10641.67 | 25.36 | -818.99 | 108.338 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 36507 | 2238 (0.06199) | 33863 | 406 | 7737.31 | 7525.75 | 31.41 | 211.55 | 97.266 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 51597 | 4695 (0.09189) | 46400 | 502 | 16849.96 | 18463.63 | 7.47 | -1613.67 | 109.577 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 200252 | 24481 (0.12259) | 175220 | 551 | 96562.28 | 95433.83 | 100.65 | 1128.44 | 98.831 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 111919 | 20399 (0.18326) | 90911 | 609 | 175862.45 | 176839.85 | 3315.13 | -977.39 | 100.556 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 277407 | 67612 (0.24429) | 209161 | 634 | 373875.09 | 360273.75 | 2322.72 | 13601.33 | 96.362 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 269642 | 98935 (0.36778) | 170072 | 635 | 591807.58 | 583042.84 | 1013.41 | 8764.74 | 98.519 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1184936 | 577436 (0.48806) | 605700 | 1800 | 908122.34 | 889927.89 | 2925.50 | 18194.44 | 97.996 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 669412 | 333726 (0.49956) | 334320 | 1366 | 684677.21 | 667699.72 | 6522.14 | 16977.48 | 97.520 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 383296 | 281210 (0.73516) | 101303 | 783 | 308632.78 | 301468.61 | 6172.42 | 7164.16 | 97.679 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 86661 | 68324 (0.79399) | 17727 | 610 | 64766.65 | 63330.98 | 1187.87 | 1435.67 | 97.783 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 78209 | 66433 (0.85679) | 11104 | 672 | 81809.13 | 81022.14 | 400.88 | 786.99 | 99.038 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 123712 | 112686 (0.91615) | 10313 | 713 | 75278.03 | 74178.45 | 1.21 | 1099.57 | 98.539 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 20341 | 18538 (0.97950) | 388 | 1415 | 24871.78 | 24454.36 | 240.66 | 417.41 | 98.322 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3975462 | 1629333 | 2327447 | 18682 | 822135.04 | 807662.48 | 291.92 | 14472.56 | 98.240 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 120601 | 54584 | 65723 | 294 | 2712206.85 | 2653435.85 | 24406.21 | 58770.99 | 97.833 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4096063 | 1683917 | 2393170 | 18976 | 3534341.90 | 3461098.33 | 24698.14 | 73243.56 | 97.928 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 73243.56522736 BTC (2.072%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3313.00317500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 69930.56205236 BTC (1.979%) Pending Liabilities: 0.00000000 BTC Final SD Profit: 69930.56205236 BTC (1.979%) Profit This Month: 2087.63548474 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 13139978 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7515600 (57.2%) Blockchain MB: 5720.8 : SatoshiDice MB: 3099.2 (54.2%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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jborkl
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April 12, 2013, 07:35:01 PM |
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I placed a bet earlier, it went right through and was returned properly. It showed up in the stats also
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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April 13, 2013, 12:02:09 AM |
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Having checked, there really are over 15000 bets pending settlement, but most of them are below the minimum bet. I didn't used to count those, but recently accidentally started counting them. I'll re-ran the script and had it ignore bets under the minimum, and: "Total of 35 bets unaccounted for." So that 15k number was including rejected bets. Oops! Here's an updated report with data from the most recent blocks: Total of 50 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Apr-12 05:01pm (up to block 231055)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 125289 | 3 (0.00002) | 123375 | 1911 | 1540.22 | 3842.18 | 145.08 | -2301.95 | 249.455 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 8498 | 0 (0.00000) | 7944 | 554 | 128.55 | 0.23 | 22.24 | 128.32 | 0.181 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 9724 | 1 (0.00011) | 9247 | 476 | 146.56 | 160.15 | 14.55 | -13.59 | 109.273 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 19173 | 5 (0.00027) | 18674 | 494 | 396.91 | 432.83 | 10.13 | -35.92 | 109.052 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 20703 | 3 (0.00015) | 20235 | 465 | 705.20 | 245.96 | 22.14 | 459.23 | 34.879 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 26397 | 11 (0.00042) | 25968 | 418 | 1470.08 | 1538.14 | 1.46 | -68.05 | 104.629 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 29009 | 35 (0.00123) | 28468 | 506 | 2108.76 | 1740.00 | 116.93 | 368.75 | 82.513 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21161 | 38 (0.00184) | 20642 | 481 | 2393.93 | 1562.96 | 48.45 | 830.97 | 65.288 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26284 | 114 (0.00441) | 25762 | 408 | 6009.98 | 8656.18 | 13.26 | -2646.20 | 144.030 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 37827 | 300 (0.00809) | 36790 | 737 | 8340.45 | 6909.70 | 10.15 | 1430.75 | 82.846 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 136146 | 2063 (0.01522) | 133506 | 577 | 41339.52 | 36418.77 | 2.27 | 4920.75 | 88.097 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 25779 | 589 (0.02318) | 24819 | 371 | 7969.63 | 8562.65 | 15.13 | -593.01 | 107.441 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 86849 | 2653 (0.03069) | 83789 | 407 | 41132.39 | 36727.29 | 9.40 | 4405.10 | 89.290 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 30521 | 1395 (0.04643) | 28647 | 479 | 9822.75 | 10641.67 | 25.37 | -818.91 | 108.337 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 36508 | 2238 (0.06199) | 33864 | 406 | 7737.33 | 7525.75 | 31.41 | 211.57 | 97.266 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 51626 | 4697 (0.09187) | 46427 | 502 | 16851.83 | 18463.96 | 7.47 | -1612.13 | 109.567 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 200471 | 24508 (0.12259) | 175411 | 552 | 96575.62 | 95439.60 | 100.65 | 1136.02 | 98.824 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 112003 | 20413 (0.18325) | 90981 | 609 | 175868.73 | 176843.40 | 3315.13 | -974.66 | 100.554 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 277585 | 67656 (0.24429) | 209295 | 634 | 373912.85 | 360285.16 | 2322.72 | 13627.69 | 96.355 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 269993 | 99045 (0.36771) | 170313 | 635 | 591873.36 | 583076.87 | 1013.41 | 8796.49 | 98.514 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1185389 | 577638 (0.48804) | 605948 | 1803 | 908206.39 | 890012.68 | 2925.51 | 18193.71 | 97.997 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 669868 | 333954 (0.49956) | 334544 | 1370 | 684831.19 | 667818.36 | 6522.15 | 17012.83 | 97.516 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 383543 | 281386 (0.73515) | 101372 | 785 | 308665.36 | 301499.77 | 6172.43 | 7165.58 | 97.679 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 86727 | 68381 (0.79405) | 17736 | 610 | 64771.05 | 63335.84 | 1187.87 | 1435.20 | 97.784 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 78275 | 66492 (0.85682) | 11111 | 672 | 81816.99 | 81030.58 | 400.88 | 786.40 | 99.039 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 123863 | 112813 (0.91607) | 10336 | 714 | 75298.70 | 74197.17 | 1.21 | 1101.52 | 98.537 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 20366 | 18558 (0.97952) | 388 | 1420 | 24873.48 | 24456.07 | 240.67 | 417.41 | 98.322 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3978956 | 1630398 | 2329856 | 18702 | 822457.73 | 807902.60 | 291.97 | 14555.13 | 98.230 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 120621 | 54591 | 65736 | 294 | 2712330.20 | 2653521.45 | 24406.21 | 58808.75 | 97.832 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4099577 | 1684989 | 2395592 | 18996 | 3534787.94 | 3461424.05 | 24698.18 | 73363.88 | 97.925 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 73363.88985134 BTC (2.075%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3316.70557500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 70047.18427634 BTC (1.982%) Pending Liabilities: 43.74421794 BTC Final SD Profit: 70003.44005840 BTC (1.980%) Profit This Month: 2160.51349078 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 13154500 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7521380 (57.2%) Blockchain MB: 5727.0 : SatoshiDice MB: 3101.6 (54.2%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Picklee
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 29
Merit: 0
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April 13, 2013, 04:38:49 AM |
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Profit This Month: 2160.51349078 BTC
This number looks better with each report.
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ThickAsThieves
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April 13, 2013, 10:48:43 AM |
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Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.
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FTWbitcoinFTW
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April 13, 2013, 12:11:51 PM |
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Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.
It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march !?
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Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone. it has lots of buttery taste..
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thoughtfan
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April 13, 2013, 12:52:02 PM |
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Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.
It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march !? Yes, I'm not seeing that happening either - especially given that many will have bought them at a much higher price than today. My guess is they might treat them with a little more care. However there's always the new influx which I still suspect make up the majority of plays. Also we can't necessarily expect - even were people to play with their bitcoins more fast and loose - for that in any particular month to be reflected in the profit and subsequent dividend. What matters more to me is the ultra-steady 1.9% edge line because that's indicative of longer term profits and this month - the last few days in particular- have shown it getting pretty close to flat. However I'm tending to believe evoorhees when he says there's stuff going on behind the scenes on the development/advertising front so we may well be seeing that on a more significant rise again soon. As an aside, does anybody know of any fundamental reason the stocks are on the rise again? I suspect unless we see a large dump bringing it back down it is because those who were taking their time over a couple of weeks dumping every recovery have finally reduced their holding sufficiently to stop, thereby allowing the demand that had never quite disappeared, to have their effect on price, thus encouraging others who had been waiting to see if it would bottom out do do likewise. Either way, on all counts I have nothing to complain about and will just use this opportunity to thank dooglus once more for continuing to provide this data in visual form Cheers
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kgo
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April 13, 2013, 01:44:11 PM |
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As an aside, does anybody know of any fundamental reason the stocks are on the rise again? I suspect unless we see a large dump bringing it back down it is because those who were taking their time over a couple of weeks dumping every recovery have finally reduced their holding sufficiently to stop, thereby allowing the demand that had never quite disappeared, to have their effect on price, thus encouraging others who had been waiting to see if it would bottom out do do likewise.
I think people wanted cash on hand so if the bubble got too crazy they'd be able to cash out at the top. That drove the price down. Now that the bubble seems to be over, people would rather invest than hold cash.
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ThickAsThieves
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April 13, 2013, 02:00:16 PM |
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Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.
It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march !? Yes, I'm not seeing that happening either - especially given that many will have bought them at a much higher price than today. My guess is they might treat them with a little more care. However there's always the new influx which I still suspect make up the majority of plays. You both don't see it because you aren't looking in the right place. Hint: "BTC In"
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thoughtfan
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April 13, 2013, 03:31:33 PM |
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Expect it to look a lot better in coming days. With BTC value lowering, people will make larger/more BTC bets.
It was the same price or less for all of march ! didn't see people make large bet in march !? Yes, I'm not seeing that happening either - especially given that many will have bought them at a much higher price than today. My guess is they might treat them with a little more care. However there's always the new influx which I still suspect make up the majority of plays. You both don't see it because you aren't looking in the right place. Hint: "BTC In" If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat. Have I missed something here?
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ThickAsThieves
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April 13, 2013, 03:53:40 PM |
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The sums provided are all-time cumulative. You need to do some math to compare changes in BTC In over time. More hints: Compare the daily BTC In from the last 2 or 3 reports. Then compare the BTC In for the last four 4-week periods. Then realize that SDICE income is highly tied to BTC/USD.
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
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April 14, 2013, 03:38:04 AM |
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If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat. Have I missed something here?
I don't think so. I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability. Total of 144 bets unaccounted for.
Results: 2013-Apr-13 08:36pm (up to block 231237)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 125968 | 3 (0.00002) | 124043 | 1922 | 1551.40 | 3842.23 | 145.13 | -2290.82 | 247.661 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 8515 | 0 (0.00000) | 7959 | 556 | 128.77 | 0.23 | 22.25 | 128.54 | 0.181 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 9770 | 1 (0.00011) | 9292 | 477 | 147.60 | 160.16 | 14.55 | -12.56 | 108.510 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 19673 | 5 (0.00026) | 19170 | 498 | 417.52 | 432.94 | 10.13 | -15.41 | 103.693 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 21404 | 3 (0.00014) | 20934 | 467 | 739.86 | 246.14 | 22.14 | 493.72 | 33.268 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 27187 | 12 (0.00045) | 26756 | 419 | 1521.88 | 1658.33 | 1.47 | -136.44 | 108.966 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 29089 | 35 (0.00122) | 28547 | 507 | 2110.64 | 1740.01 | 116.93 | 370.62 | 82.440 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 21223 | 38 (0.00183) | 20702 | 483 | 2395.80 | 1562.97 | 48.45 | 832.83 | 65.238 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 26369 | 114 (0.00439) | 25846 | 409 | 6011.96 | 8656.19 | 13.26 | -2644.23 | 143.983 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 38009 | 302 (0.00810) | 36967 | 740 | 8352.14 | 6912.51 | 10.16 | 1439.63 | 82.763 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 136890 | 2076 (0.01523) | 134233 | 581 | 41395.30 | 36496.35 | 2.29 | 4898.94 | 88.165 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 25851 | 590 (0.02316) | 24890 | 371 | 7975.84 | 8570.25 | 15.13 | -594.41 | 107.453 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 87362 | 2674 (0.03075) | 84279 | 409 | 41144.78 | 36752.71 | 9.40 | 4392.07 | 89.325 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 30614 | 1400 (0.04646) | 28735 | 479 | 9825.47 | 10646.78 | 25.37 | -821.30 | 108.359 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 36560 | 2242 (0.06201) | 33911 | 407 | 7739.90 | 7527.54 | 31.41 | 212.35 | 97.256 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 51750 | 4714 (0.09199) | 46532 | 504 | 16855.84 | 18468.89 | 7.48 | -1613.04 | 109.570 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 200914 | 24561 (0.12258) | 175799 | 554 | 96593.71 | 95463.24 | 100.65 | 1130.47 | 98.830 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 112528 | 20515 (0.18331) | 91401 | 612 | 175910.97 | 176882.52 | 3315.14 | -971.54 | 100.552 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 278373 | 67850 (0.24430) | 209886 | 637 | 373966.53 | 360338.01 | 2322.73 | 13628.51 | 96.356 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 270921 | 99377 (0.36768) | 170905 | 639 | 591960.13 | 583210.48 | 1013.41 | 8749.64 | 98.522 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1187809 | 578808 (0.48804) | 607186 | 1815 | 908600.66 | 890449.91 | 2925.54 | 18150.74 | 98.002 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 672307 | 335163 (0.49956) | 335747 | 1397 | 685467.46 | 668471.61 | 6522.25 | 16995.84 | 97.521 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 385265 | 282691 (0.73527) | 101782 | 792 | 308804.38 | 301647.77 | 6172.46 | 7156.61 | 97.682 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 87177 | 68737 (0.79408) | 17825 | 615 | 64817.86 | 63382.53 | 1187.89 | 1435.33 | 97.786 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 78634 | 66790 (0.85679) | 11164 | 680 | 81887.38 | 81099.99 | 400.91 | 787.39 | 99.038 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 124756 | 113626 (0.91610) | 10406 | 724 | 75394.04 | 74290.55 | 1.27 | 1103.49 | 98.536 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 20546 | 18705 (0.97932) | 395 | 1446 | 24889.63 | 24471.76 | 240.70 | 417.87 | 98.321 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3994793 | 1636409 | 2339538 | 18846 | 823849.13 | 809333.46 | 292.41 | 14515.67 | 98.238 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 120671 | 54623 | 65754 | 294 | 2712758.45 | 2654049.25 | 24406.21 | 58709.19 | 97.836 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 4115464 | 1691032 | 2405292 | 19140 | 3536607.58 | 3463382.71 | 24698.62 | 73224.87 | 97.930 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 73224.87328657 BTC (2.070%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 3333.32577500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 69891.54751157 BTC (1.976%) Pending Liabilities: -18.29921425 BTC Final SD Profit: 69909.84672582 BTC (1.977%) Profit This Month: 2066.92015820 BTC ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 13215515 : SatoshiDice Tx: 7549203 (57.1%) Blockchain MB: 5753.3 : SatoshiDice MB: 3113.0 (54.1%)
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zakoliverz
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April 14, 2013, 04:31:08 AM |
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Hi! I am very much a beginner myself, but one thought would be to look at running a custom algorithm development system. This would be helpful if you expect to see the effects between many other variables that may be useful.
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ThickAsThieves
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April 14, 2013, 05:43:07 AM |
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If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat. Have I missed something here?
I don't think so. I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability. The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods: BTC IN Jan 16th 1992532 Feb 13th 1174083 Mar 13th 240936 Apr 9th 121371
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thoughtfan
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April 14, 2013, 07:11:06 AM |
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If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat. Have I missed something here?
I don't think so. I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability. The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods: BTC IN Jan 16th 1992532 Feb 13th 1174083 Mar 13th 240936 Apr 9th 121371 Thanks both. That clears that one up for me and is affirmed by looking at the upper chart of dooglus's pair for the same time frames where we can see the 1.9% edge line showing proportionally the same jumps over the same time periods. I was under the understanding however that the primary reason for the massive drop after Feb was more to do with the disappearance of a 'whale' rather than anything to do with usd/btc. But maybe ThickAsThieves, your assumtion has some merit in explaining the halving in revenue between the latter pair of periods. This is not as obvious just by looking at the charts - which lazily has been my means of keeping tabs on how my investment is doing.
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MPOE-PR
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April 14, 2013, 10:10:14 AM |
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Are you the guy in the pic?
Are you? I am the gal in the pic, yes.
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ThickAsThieves
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April 14, 2013, 11:52:30 AM |
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If I've understood this right the 1.9 edge figure reflects the "BTC In" sum and the 1.9% line on the chart showing pretty flat tells me that 'BTC In' in is also pretty flat. Have I missed something here?
I don't think so. I think you're both looking at much the same thing, in that they're both indicators of the bet volume rather than the (short term) profitability. The following is the amount of "BTC In" for SatoshiDice.com for four 4-week periods: BTC IN Jan 16th 1992532 Feb 13th 1174083 Mar 13th 240936 Apr 9th 121371 Thanks both. That clears that one up for me and is affirmed by looking at the upper chart of dooglus's pair for the same time frames where we can see the 1.9% edge line showing proportionally the same jumps over the same time periods. I was under the understanding however that the primary reason for the massive drop after Feb was more to do with the disappearance of a 'whale' rather than anything to do with usd/btc. But maybe ThickAsThieves, your assumtion has some merit in explaining the halving in revenue between the latter pair of periods. This is not as obvious just by looking at the charts - which lazily has been my means of keeping tabs on how my investment is doing. The whales certainly distorted things. Would be great to have them back though.
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