Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending"

[Micon]

If a company like google was going to get into bitcoin they would need to secure a lot of coins and could afford to pay extra to avoid messing with the price too much.  They wouldnt want to signal their entrance into the market.

Where else are they going to go but pirate ?

Oh, I missed this one. This is a gem.

If Google (or some other big business) would want to secure a lot of BTC, I think they would first contact MtGox and try to negotiate some kind of a deal. Or, just set up a team to manage their bitcoin holdings and do the buying themselves, otc or exchanges. Or just f'in mine the stuff.

But, there's no way someone can buy a significant portion of a limited resource without moving the price up, Pirate or not. Supply and demand.

It is laughable to see what the FUDdettes will say to try and convince just 1 more mark to invest in what could be the bitcoin-acquiring arm of the Google corporation.

[1713588829]

1713588829

[drakahn]

If a company like google was going to get into bitcoin they would need to secure a lot of coins and could afford to pay extra to avoid messing with the price too much.  They wouldnt want to signal their entrance into the market.

Where else are they going to go but pirate ?

Oh, I missed this one. This is a gem.

If Google (or some other big business) would want to secure a lot of BTC, I think they would first contact MtGox and try to negotiate some kind of a deal. Or, just set up a team to manage their bitcoin holdings and do the buying themselves, otc or exchanges. Or just f'in mine the stuff.

But, there's no way someone can buy a significant portion of a limited resource without moving the price up, Pirate or not. Supply and demand.

FUD

you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means

[Clipse]

That is either "impossible" or "totally cool" - depending on your point of view
Discuss/Flame on!

3000%+ APR debt is impossible to be legit.  BurtW - again I beg you not to listen to me, but to ask any CPA / accountant / MBA / Lawyer / Doctor / anyone with a retirement account / anyone that is solvent and responsible over the age of 60 - just point them here:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50822.0  and ask them if there is any possibility of the program being legitimate.  

Again you suck fancy words out of your thumb, where is the 3000%+ APR debt ? You make it sound like he loans from investors for a year then repay them which is absurd and just plain fking stupid. Pirate only carry debt from day to day and if he ends it tomorrow he has one day of debt to clear.

Pirate does not have anywhere close to the principle he would owe if he were to try and pay everyone back.  Each week principle from all investors is depleted to pay the interest.  He will also offer bonuses to "leave the coins in" so he only must display to you a number on a screen as proof he is holding your money, not actually send the coins (deep thought: actually sending the coins just makes a different number in a different system on a different part of your screen.  Think about seeing actual coins in your wallet vs. a number on the BCST website - which one makes you nervous and which one do you fully trust? )

More facts, less guessing.

Care to tell us how you know what Pirate have on his name ? Are you a close business partner who knows his full financials ?

Oh wait, you are just full of shit as usual.

[miscreanity]

I am convinced that pirate holds enough BTC and USD to move the market significantly. I am not convinced that this can be a source of any more than a marginal amount of revenue. You take losses when you move the market, and even if the gains could exceed the losses (which they almost never do), you have to share them with everyone else trading.

The volume at the margin moves faster than the bulk of holdings. A garden hose can move more water than a 4" pipe if there's enough of a pressure difference between the two.

In this manner, small profits can build quickly. It's like the tradeoff between higher IC parallelism vs. clockspeed - either a lot of simple instructions at a high rate, or more complex instructions at a slower speed.

That leaves the issue of a buffer. Even with the ability to move the market, there's still a potential for reduced supply or complete stoppage of the flow. In that situation, guarding against complete failure can be accomplished by having a steady, alternate source of flow. It may not be able to supply the volume of the main operation, but it can pick up some slack.

With the latest rate decrease, the supplemental supply apparently hasn't been able to compensate enough. The other explanation is that Ponzi investment is dwindling. I've suggested that if Pirate were running a Bitcoin-only Ponzi, it would've failed nearly three months ago - just prior to the price level increasing from $5.

If a company like google was going to get into bitcoin they would need to secure a lot of coins and could afford to pay extra to avoid messing with the price too much.  They wouldnt want to signal their entrance into the market.

Where else are they going to go but pirate ?

Oh, I missed this one. This is a gem.

If Google (or some other big business) would want to secure a lot of BTC, I think they would first contact MtGox and try to negotiate some kind of a deal. Or, just set up a team to manage their bitcoin holdings and do the buying themselves, otc or exchanges. Or just f'in mine the stuff.

But, there's no way someone can buy a significant portion of a limited resource without moving the price up, Pirate or not. Supply and demand.

The purpose of a business acquiring coins is not the same as an individual. Use is the critical factor, not accumulation. In other words: flow trumps stock. The purchased coins would rapidly reenter the market after being made use of.

Pirate does not have anywhere close to the principle he would owe if he were to try and pay everyone back.

You must be Pirate if you have access to the financial information.

Hey everyone - Micon is Pirate! Tear him to shreds!

[gene]

The volume at the margin moves faster than the bulk of holdings. A garden hose can move more water than a 4" pipe if there's enough of a pressure difference between the two.

[...]

Even with the ability to move the market, there's still a potential for reduced supply or complete stoppage of the flow. In that situation, guarding against complete failure can be accomplished by having a steady, alternate source of flow. It may not be able to supply the volume of the main operation, but it can pick up some slack.

So what you're saying is...

Pirate's ponzi is like a series of tubes!



http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-july-12-2006/headlines---internet

[Stephen Gornick]

Oh oh...

Made it into the online media:

The Bernie Madoffs of Bitcoin?
 - http://www.theverge.com/2012/8/15/3243200/bitcoin-ponzi-schemes-savings-and-trust


By Adrienne Jeffries.

[BoardGameCoin]

Oh oh...

Made it into the online media:

The Bernie Madoffs of Bitcoin?
 - http://www.theverge.com/2012/8/15/3243200/bitcoin-ponzi-schemes-savings-and-trust


By Adrienne Jeffries.

This is an AWESOME article. Expect at least 20 new ~10k USD players from this one.

[Maged]

And a while back, I outlined a theory that is extremely plausible. So much so, that maged is researching it now.

I've thought over the futures idea, and am now concluding, without further information, that it is not likely. My reasoning is that a futures market first evolves from the fundamentals and speculation comes into play to add liquidity later.

The fundamental groups are:
1) Miners
2) Businesses

Miners have a strong incentive to use a futures market because it would allow them to lock in the price of bitcoins they haven't mined yet. I highly suspect that a futures market will evolve to be strong in bitcoin in the future because of this. However, most of the miners who would use futures are members of this forum, so we would have heard something about this. It's a shame that Pirate said that GPUMAX wasn't involved in BS&T, because that would have been more interesting to consider.

Businesses would use a futures market if a lot of escrow or other delayed delivery of bitcoins were taking place, but we all know that isn't the case.

Now, it's true that most of any market is speculation. However, no market can be (almost) completely speculation, since speculation is a zero-sum game.

[Raoul Duke]

Oh oh...

Made it into the online media:

The Bernie Madoffs of Bitcoin?
 - http://www.theverge.com/2012/8/15/3243200/bitcoin-ponzi-schemes-savings-and-trust


By Adrienne Jeffries.

This is an AWESOME article. Expect at least 20 new ~10k USD players from this one.

Damn. $10k USD! That's almost as much as what Micon earns on an entire year playing poker as a pro!

[Maged]

I've suggested that if Pirate were running a Bitcoin-only Ponzi, it would've failed nearly three months ago - just prior to the price level increasing from $5.

Why would you think that? I'm genuinely interested in your analysis.

[hgmichna]

… speculation is a zero-sum game.

Generally I'm not sure about this. Assume a speculator, who invests into a start-up business. As the start-up grows, it creates value, for example by inventing and making new products.

The value of the business grows, and the speculator can now sell his shares for a higher price.

This is not a zero-sum game, as the value of the business, and possibly the value of the entire market, has increased.

Perhaps you meant a narrower definition of speculation?

[wachtwoord]

Then he does two things: invest and speculate.

Speculation concerns merely the speculation on the increase or decrease of price (not value) of assets. "Someone's gotta lose when someone wins".

[Micon]

If a company like google was going to get into bitcoin they would need to secure a lot of coins and could afford to pay extra to avoid messing with the price too much.  They wouldnt want to signal their entrance into the market.

Where else are they going to go but pirate ?

Oh, I missed this one. This is a gem.

If Google (or some other big business) would want to secure a lot of BTC, I think they would first contact MtGox and try to negotiate some kind of a deal. Or, just set up a team to manage their bitcoin holdings and do the buying themselves, otc or exchanges. Or just f'in mine the stuff.

But, there's no way someone can buy a significant portion of a limited resource without moving the price up, Pirate or not. Supply and demand.

Mt. Gox is a minor participant in the btc 'economy'.  Have you seen the average daily volumes?  You have tunnel vision.  More btc moves outside Gox between two parties than all the turnover in the average day.

I'm not supporting the Google hypothesis but you really should do some basic math.  You just look, well, like a stoner.

he may look stoned, but you look like a shill:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=9963;sa=showPosts

[JoelKatz]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornering_the_market

You can't make much money that way when there are functioning exchanges and you're not producing a product. In fact, you are much more likely to lose money.

There are a large number of complex reasons why this doesn't work, but here's the short version: Say Bitcoins are trading at roughly $10 and are relatively stable. If not for any manipulations, they'd stay basically there. You have a huge supply of both Bitcoins and USD at several major exchanges. You have no inside knowledge others don't have except what you yourself are going to do. (These assumptions are not necessary, but they make things easier to understand to get the basics.)

So you hatch a plan, you'll sell the price down to $8.50 and then buy a bunch of Bitcoins at the reduced price. Now this only works if you understand that the "natural price" of Bitcoins is more than $8.50. Otherwise, buying at $8.50 is no benefit. And if you know this, so does everyone else.

So as soon as you push the price significantly below $10, you are selling to get down to $8.50 at a loss. And everyone else can buy all your coins for less than their natural price. When you succeed and get the price down to $8.50, you will not be the only one buying. And because people know the price is below the natural price, the price will shoot up very quickly. (Many buyers will be induced by the low price and very few new sellers will appear. If idiots panic sell, you won't be only one person on line with USD to buy them out.)

So the further you push the price from the natural price, the harder it gets to move the price. You take more and more losses. And the further you push the price, the easier it is for it to jump back to the natural price, the easier it gets for others to move the price back.

So manipulations have to be much more subtle to have even a chance of working. You have to gradually push the market to convince a large number of other people that the "natural price" is something other than what it would be if not for your manipulations. And the reason this won't work is because there are a number of well-financed people who are too smart to fall for this. It only takes one to make you lose more and more as you try to move the price at a loss and split the gain more and more as you try to take profit as it goes back. Since there are several, this is just not going to work.

[koin]

new addition for the list?

"What am I doing with the coins?" 
If I was to provide a simple answer like buying 50 BFL singles and going mining, or putting 10,000 coins into XYZ asset on GLBSE then there wouldn't be much science in that and it would ruin the market that I am looking at.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100913

[PatrickHarnett]

new addition for the list?

"What am I doing with the coins?" 
If I was to provide a simple answer like buying 50 BFL singles and going mining, or putting 10,000 coins into XYZ asset on GLBSE then there wouldn't be much science in that and it would ruin the market that I am looking at.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100913

yay - I'm famous.

[aq]

This is one of the most revealing thread on the forum. If Satoshi would have been as unimaginative as are those ponzi accusing people he would have never been able to invent Bitcoin. Thinking outside the box seems to be completely impossible for them.
But at least it is a good sign about Bitcoin mass adoption, judging by the number of Joe Sixpacks, that apparently have little more than some TV education

[JoelKatz]

This is one of the most revealing thread on the forum. If Satoshi would have been as unimaginative as are those ponzi accusing people he would have never been able to invent Bitcoin. Thinking outside the box seems to be completely impossible for them.
But at least it is a good sign about Bitcoin mass adoption, judging by the number of Joe Sixpacks, that apparently have little more than some TV education

Only an idiot thinks outside the box when there's a 100% perfect solution that doesn't require it.

[TheOtherGuy]

new addition for the list?

"What am I doing with the coins?" 
If I was to provide a simple answer like buying 50 BFL singles and going mining, or putting 10,000 coins into XYZ asset on GLBSE then there wouldn't be much science in that and it would ruin the market that I am looking at.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100913

yay - I'm famous.

Good job and congrats on the new venture PatrickHarnett.

The free advertising is definitely a win for the Starfish!

[koin]

new addition for the list?

"What am I doing with the coins?"  
If I was to provide a simple answer like buying 50 BFL singles and going mining, or putting 10,000 coins into XYZ asset on GLBSE then there wouldn't be much science in that and it would ruin the market that I am looking at.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100913

yay - I'm famous.

before indoor plumbing they would dig a hole in the ground outside the house.  there was always a tradeoff as to where to dig.  too far and it made for a long walk on a cold night.  too close and your house smells like shit.

i think the securities forum cesspit wasn't dug far enough away.

ughh ...

The nature of the recipient of the loan will not be discussed.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=100800.0