the text you clipped from my quote answers your question... 

i think we are ...sslipping into pessimisssm...

or are we still in denial that our own rampant speculation caused the volatility?

bear market ahead, folks

i agree completely. shorting and doubt are dampening the price, on the 6-month-scale. there was about as much money in the economy on the eve of the supposed $8 RALLY as there was at the peak of the summer bubble. bitcoin is indeed quite UNDERVALUED right now, on the long-term.

haha apparently i make better predictions. come at me brah

no ill will at all. i am not commenting on the so-called 'manipulators'. i am commenting on the behavior of the panic traders who amplify the momentum of an already volatile market.

just, trade patiently. how is that getting misconstrued here?

i was just pointing out a couple rather obvious signals

i will predict the low, when i see the signals. it's not for a little ways still... the month-scale Chaikin oscillator is reaching a local minimum (momentum of downtrend decreasing), but i doubt this is stable. definitely still bear market.

EDIT: another small signal; AROON crossover on the 10-day scale. combined with the shifting depth on mtgoxlive, i think we might have already hit the bottom during the last downspike to $5.05. perhaps quasi-stable here, and i suspect we'll test $5.00 again. as long as the resistance holds, it will delay the falling knife. otherwise, bear market on.

uh, my other thread

flattered

but yeah no one 'believes' in charts here it's pretty dumb. i only heeded ineededausername's technical analysis while mine was still weak when i first invested. but then he completely miscalled the RALLY TO $8. and i've been largely accurate since new years.

observation: there are a few VERY big players involved in BTC, as evidenced by massive bidwalls on mtgoxlive

as soon as you even think about whether they have ulterior motives you're wildly speculating.

i would say most of the volatility recently actually comes from the effect of leveraged bitcoinica positions on the market.

maybe for a lot of people here, this is their first experience trading and it's obvious during some of the non-manipulated price swings that there is some serious panic buying/selling going on.

are you patronizing me for presenting good advice in a relatively novel way? patience is important.

not at all. panic is like the polar opposite of the frothing of the mouth that occurred on the forums at the peak of the $7.20 bubble. it's a sentiment thing, not exact, that wasn't exactly the pith of the OP...

oh yes, the bitcoin economy is completely controlled by a powerful, omni-wealthy entity who chooses to move the price around at will, for their own sick enjoyment.

sounds as bs as any abrahamic religion if you ask me.

we have an instinctive tendency to ascribe intelligence to randomness and see design where there is none.

it is, actually, just like the abrahamic religions, a great way to avoid responsibility. hurricanes are not punishments. they are wake-up calls. each one of us here in this subforum is responsible for the volatility we are seeing.

just trade patiently

btw, i hope you can tell the difference between this stupidity:


...and actual chart-based technical analysis. price trends constitute only half of the information in the market...

you hit the nail on the head. whenever i bring up my analysis here i get scoffed at. i doubt many traders look at the charts, or know how to read them. i have a B.S. in physics so i've had a lot of practice reading graphical data, and i love the relationship of the fundamental theorem of calculus with the way signals work; it's fascinating.

and as for a 'contest', i've been trading based on my own analysis of just the charts at bitcoincharts since october and i'm looking at 50% returns.

one of these days, ill make a post quoting all of my correct analyses and predictions. you guys can ignore me for now, it only hurts yourselves...

see where the various functions (lines) crossover towards the negative? those are bearish signals, to put it simply.

calculus isnt predictive, it just describes how, for instance, crossovers can predict reversals. when the slope of a function is zero, at its maximum/minimum, the slope changes sign; in price terms, a reversal. if one were watching the function graph over time, as we watch the price function, if we were also keeping an eye on the derivative/point slope, we would be able to anticipate a reversal even among the noise of the market (stemming largely from the discontinuity of price data, as has been pointed out).

and your good points are why good traders don't just use one chart. they are all approximations and models. almost similar to predicting weather. when a whole bunch of signals agree, however, one should take note. rather like meteorology is awful for predicting daily weather, but we know the direction whereto our climate is going (global warming, &c).

+1

there are big players, but the mass movement of medium players still has a trending effect.

i am familiar with black swan events. that would be equivalent to me attempting to predict the big, obviously manipulated price movements. i am merely predicting/noting the trend. there is still a trend regardless, and charts [read GRAPHS] are good visual representations of the price and volume.

please, think about calculus. one can predict when one function will reach a maximum (read: reversal) or minimum, by following the 'momentum' of a line, or function scalable to the derivative. a "zero-line crossover" of a derivative is an x-intercept, which tells you that the function is undergoing a 'reversal'.

(EDIT: for instance, this is the exact relationship between the Accumulation/Distribution Line, an indicator based solely on price and volume, and the Chaikin Oscillator, which measures the ACC/DIS Line's 'momentum')

so no, this was no black swan event. i predicted not that massive, manipulated movement, but noted the beginning of a reversal at the end of the bubble to 7.20, and sold at 6.85.

explain yourself

actually, first: have you ever taken calculus?