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@jjg...who is the bigger dweeb here than the "writer"?
As a small solace, these developments hurt my pocket just the same, but I cannot not see what I foresee...but, right now, the thought is...it will pass.
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Any bets on where this is going to end? Need to change the poll.
it's still locked...until in range  |
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Michael Saylor's recent wisdom: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpUU7k5OZ1k..goes after NFTs viciously (and rightly in this segment). Here is the part about NFTs if you don't want the whole vid: https://youtu.be/HpUU7k5OZ1k?t=479Nobody knows if it is the same guy/gal bidding on their own stuff from multiple accounts, fluffing it up. Talks about bitcoin, stable coins, CBDCs, etc as well. |
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Buddy is pointing upwards?
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Ozark was surprisingly interesting to watch, maybe because of all those turns. Btw, why it is pronounced Missour-a (at least by natives)? Then again, it is Kan-zas (not Kan-saw), yet it is Arkan-saw. Bewildering  |
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I used to mine and the most important formula for me in determining whether I could be profitable or not was: [2 16-1]/[2 48D] which (since we're working with such large numbers) you can boil down to 1/2 32D where D is the current difficulty 24371874614345 (you can find it here: https://chainquery.com/bitcoin-cli/getdifficulty). That formula gives you the probability of any computed hash leading to a valid block. 1/104,676,404,410,824,387,461,120 So for a single 110TH miner the probabilty of a block in one second is 1/951,603,676 Solo pools don't share the reward among all the miners but they still pool their resources to work on the same block. In this case, only the miner who finds it gets the reward but the combined hashrate of all participants would be used. CK solo pool ( https://solo.ckpool.org/pool/) has about 2000 users with about 13,000 devices and shows a hashrate of 37.6 PH/s so the probability of a valid block in one second is 1/2,783,947 which indicates they should solve about one block every month. Of course, the hashrate fluctuates as users come and go and difficulty changes ~every 2 weeks but finding 2 blocks in a month with their current hashrate is pretty lucky. However, if you look back at their previous history, they have been rather unlucky; finding only 4 blocks in all of 2020 and only 2 in 2019. You can't cheat at hashing bitcoin - it all comes out in the wash. It's normal distribution but very exciting for CK I'm sure. 110th "right now" would give you about 0.165 BTC/year equivalent or 0.01375 btc/mo. calculation: [110/219018363]X144x365x6.25=0.164986166 btc/year the lucky "guy" got 37.87 years worth of mining value. |
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..if you believe in that graph...I don't.
42K in Sep 2024 would be kind of depressing, though.
A last buying opportunity?
You didn't actually got my point. What I mean is, the lowest possible price of BTC in 2024 will be $42k range. Currently, it's $16k range. So, the price at that time should be almost above $120k. Hope this clears it a bit. yes, i got it, but i never was a fan of this log log scale graph. It completely ignores the potential from the hockey stick adoption curve (if it happens). |
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..if you believe in that graph...I don't.
42K in Sep 2024 would be kind of depressing, though.
The last, last, last buying opportunity?
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FWIW a firefox FORK like waterfox might be my answer. I would love to trim the bloat anyway.
As to all these solo blocks appearing. Umm. We are sure of these miner's hashrate? Truly in the single Whatsminer sort of range?
I keep waiting for some giant chip fab entity (ie Samsung, Motorolla, Intel, AMD, Nvidea etc) developing a SHA256 ASIC on the down-low and starting to test them... I do not know enough about this tech/market to know if this is a possibility, but my gut thinks so. But I do not think it is impossible that some chip maker could get a quick ROI testing (Butterfly Labs style) a brand new ASIC. The financial incentive for this is crazy high.
The fucking political garbage being fronted by Firefox and Wikimedia will hold us back.
See how these two threads tie together?
Forgive my ignorance...but have you tried Brave? https://brave.com/Edit: I use Edge on my Mac, becuz fuckem I use firefox on PC, 'cause fuckem twice (the longest monopoly ever). deleting mozilla due to bitcoin whatever is a bit premature.... |
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This is not a once in a 70 Day chance, if it was we all be hearing about it and everyone would be solo mining... You will need about 17,500TH to be hitting a block every 70days.
You are using a PPS method to calculate the above. Statistically it is what you would generate with the current network difficulty.
Excluding fees/cost/etc and any network diff changes, you are earning 0.00065BTC a day
If difficulty was to never rise and fall, it would take approx 9,615 days to generate 6.25BTC or approx 26 Years.
Here are some numbers and facts to drool over...
Every hash has an equal chance of hitting a block
There is approx. 175,000,000TH or 175,000,000,000,000,000,000 Hash
126TH or 126,000,000,000,000 Hash is approx 0.000072% of the over all hash rate
Remember, statistically speaking, you will never hit a block, but that doesn't mean you will not get lucky. (glitch in the Matrix)
So yes it is a once in a life time hit.
Probably Black Jack has about the best odds for the player out of any of the casino games, so long as the casino does not further undermine the odds by adding new unfair rules (or rules that worsen odds of regular blackjack)... but even with odds of maybe 1% to 2% against the player, some players believe that they can beat the odds to cause them to become 1% to 2% in their favor - mostly by attempting to play consistently with a system that maybe allows to change their bet on certain conditions (probably a kind of counting involved too, even though some players claim that they can consistently win at blackjack without counting cards). Playing Black Jack sounds much better than the odds being described above - hence likely the reason that hardly anyone mines solo unless they have enough hashpower to hit on a fairly regular basis, maybe monthly or so.. which probably would cost quite a bit of money to get to that level of hashpower.. so yeah mining has been questionably profitable through the years as compared with just buying coins. I suppose that if the miner cannot generate enough hashpower to attempt to hit close to 10--12 times per year, then such miner then is forced (for practical purposes) to join a pool. This post likely demonstrates part of the reason that I am not a miner.... and just a plain Jane buyer of bitcoins (or would it be a plain Joe?). Edited: Made a few clarification and fleshing out of idea attempts. <snip>i just feel 10,000 to 1 is not a right representation of the odds of hitting a block regardless of time/duration. it's not 1:10000 per block in his example, it is 1:10000 per day. There are about 6X24=144 blocks a day, so the chance per block is 1:1440000 (one in 1.44 mil blocks) in his example. @jjg..almost no one is mining solo, true...that was just one person who hit the jackpot. Or, maybe, he had 101 machines with 100 mining in a pool and 1 "playing lottery"...this is not possible to determine. Some old timers do this kind of thing. |
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Well this is what Americans supposedly voted for.
To be fair, some of this started under Trump and the unmeasured reaction to the coof (which that was part of) hasn't helped. But yes, those who gave votes to Biden should have known this was on the cards. Not that anyone's vote really had anything to do with the outcome of this last election. And this juggernaut was set in force decades ago. And involves the whole world. The phrase "Build Back Better" has been bandied about for quite some time (prior to covid). How could they have known we would need to "build back" from something? the USA has allowed the roads the railroads the airports the internet the docks the bridges the power grids the dams to all fall behind since 2000 when Bush beat Gore so yeah this has been a long time coming I drive from Howell NJ to New Hyde Park NY a lot maybe 25 times in a year. it is a 80 mile trip each way. we go on 3 bridges and 6 highways. Been doing it for 30 years. Made over 400 trips 2 times zero construction 398 times some kind of construction most was minor patch work. It is like this all over the country. I drive a lot and most places have old decayed roads and bridges. Well, around here, they do work on infrastructure, but this work takes AGES. A relatively simple highway fix takes 4-5 years. That said, I visited the Tri-State area after a relatively long absence and it did look a bit shabby on Long Island, for example. To me, our endless highway works look exactly like in "Falling Down" (the 90-ies movie with Michael Douglas). They got the budget, so they are using it (slowly). OT I just realized that Michael D. father, Kirk Douglas (of Spartacus fame) lived to be 104. A long life, but he looked very robust, physically. |
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I know it might seem a bit off topic right now...
But it looks like CB might be giving us some good news shortly.
what are you talking about? not tightening? |
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I am personally offended by the "You don't agree with me/science/the church/government/qanon/etc therefore you are dumb" argument.
I am sorry, but I disagree. People should definitely respect each other's personal choices. Each of us should be free to think and do as we choose. But when people start saying that being vaccinated offers greater protection from Covid than natural immunity (a truth proven by science), they need to be called out as fucking stupid. Repeatedly. You can't debate a fact. Just like I don't have to "respect the opinion" of Flat Earthers, or people who believe that fairies and goblins are real. We cannot live in such a world where outright lies reign as some sort of mass truth. "Repeat a lie often enough, and it becomes the truth."Posting this to clarify science. To start, I am NOT in favor of mandatory vax for many reasons, mostly associated with freedom of choice in an unclear environment. Having said that what you posted (which is likely to be true) does not really apply from the sequence of events perspective. Sequence one: you are not vaxxed, your chance of dying is 11/1000 per year. Yes, for 989 people who survived, they might have a pretty good immune conditioning, but about 3 times more people died. Sequence two: you are vaxxed, your chance of dying is 3.5-4.2/1000 per year. Your immune status is probably less effective, but less people died, statistically (at least from what i found). Data: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths-by-vaccinationhttps://www.pharmacytimes.com/view/covid-19-vaccinated-individuals-had-lower-non-covid-19-death-ratesIn my extended family three people (unvaxxed) died. They were not young (therefore their risk was much higher), but died from COVID for sure. One died before vaccines were available, but two others did not want to be vaccinated. However, it is also possible that in the future vax status would matter little if strains like the current one would break through easily. As you can see on the graphs in the first link, death rates 'advantage' of vaxxed vs not vaxxed is declining (there is a "hump"), but still quite significant. OT(lol): what about that bitcoin....up 2.5% today...wowza! |
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kidding aside...say, if someone goes there and plants a flag, is it then 'theirs' or is the whole space 'stuff' unclaimable/belongs to everybody?
Found the provisional answer: "Most notably, the Outer Space Treaty prohibits governments from claiming sovereignty over space or for any celestial body. '' Therefore, no nation can give its citizens or any other nation exclusive use of any territory."
That said, possession is 9/10 of the law, isn't it?
It will belong to beltalowda (see the "Expanse" for meaning).
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huh?
Suddenly: Bob Saget dies in hotel
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Seriously though, any chance we could resume the bull market? Nothing would make me happier, I am doubtful though.
Just for you, since I know you're still holding 75% of stash and therefore hoping for upside. Here are some squiggly lines for you, as if drawn by a child, with volume profile included:  The point beside being a little drunk rn, is that last years move from $30K-$40K (accumulation) to $50K-$60K (distribution) meant very little in the long-term perspective, as price didn't continue higher. Now price has dropped from $69K down to $40K, it again means very little in the long-term, only that it's likely price returns to the accumulation zone. Just like when price returned to the distribution zone, for more distribution. I think despite all the technical analysis, fundamentals, on-chain data and otherwise that vary between bullish and bearish, this is pretty neutral trading right now. Bouncing from above the accumulation zone, prior to further accumulation would be very bullish, but otherwise returning to the accumulation zone isn't as bearish as people consider, as there's nothing unhealthy about long-term consolidation at higher levels. Of course price could drop to $25K, even $20K, but ultimately for the past 12 months this has always been the case. The only difference is that now it's less likely it seems. I'm still pretty bearish short-term, as only see broken support from what turned out to be no mans land (not re-accumulation), but I otherwise struggle to consider that the bear market has truly begun given the healthy accumulation and distribution pattern. Sure it could take some months, maybe even many, but I doubt it will take until 2023, 2024 or 2025 until there is a new ATH again. Nice analysis, but TA cannot include some macro factors like Chinese ban in May 2021. Without it, we would have made the trip to 100K already, most likely. You're right, it can't. It certainly didn't in early 2021 that's for sure. Institutional & whale selling in the $50K-60K wasn't the issue though, but the lack of re-accumulation between $30K-$40K. Possibly also because of this ban I realise. Hash rate was still struggling at these prices so the fundamentals weren't all pointing back to immediate upside. I am generally agreeing with everything, apart from the new ATH in 2022, but, hey, I think that 60K and even a stretch to 65K is possible, so it could be close. That I can understand. Price has been in the same price range for 12 months. It'd be naive to think it can't stay within this range for another 12 months. That said, it's not common for Bitcoin's price movements to remain range bound for such extended periods, so while it's already happened for considerable time, I wouldn't bet on continuation either. Therefore, I think this long-term consolidation at higher levels is much more likely to break to the upside than the downside, simply based on current macro bullish price structure, nothing complicated here. To contrast, you still think that we are in the bull market, whereas I think that prior is either already over or ending with, hopefully, a milder bear (it very well just be a retest of 29K plus minus one-two K). In all honesty, I'm remaining open minded. Based on long-term moving averages like the 50 Week MA @ $48.3K that has now been broken, the bull market has almost ended. But I prefer to stay conservative with my perception of these averages, so only when this MA is sloping downwards will I consider the bull market over, likely with a retest that confirms it as resistance as well. Because in the meantime (many weeks), this MA can still be relatively easily reclaimed if price were to reverse and bounce to upside, as +15% really isn't a big move in Bitcoin world. Notably also for example on the mid-term when the 50 Day MA was broken the mid-term bear trend didn't begin, but when this MA starting sloping downwards instead. This is when we saw the breakdown below $53K. I wouldn't rule out a re-test of $29K, but also think the mid $30K levels will be well defended, given the much larger amount of accumulation at these levels than distribution at higher levels. It looks like that half of these accumulators sold around the $50K-60K distribution level (or on average these accumulators sold half @ 2x), but otherwise the other half didn't (based on volume profile). So I don't believe they will be selling at break even after holding for 6+ months, as it's common for 6+ months hodlers to panic sell at break-even. They are more likely to re-accumulate at lower levels if it comes, or accumulate more in the mid $30Ks imo. To me, there is nothing in current behavior that indicates bull continuation. Alas, if it suddenly turns up, I might consider that the bull is still alive, otherwise I am of the opinion that we are in the new market cycle already with relative flat (or band of 29-60K) continuing for a while.
<snip> If the bull market were over however, I'd consider it to have ended with the original ATH of $64K, as opposed to that of $69K that was merely a fake-out, therefore creating an ATL or new local low in April time (ie 12 months of downside/sideways trading) as opposed to creating a new low in November time at much lower prices, like many are fearing right now. Ie, reversal in a few months at most.The underlying issue I see right now is that open interest is at at time high levels, so in the short-term this is very bearish as traders are trading short-term bearish price movements to the downside. Previously price has always been dominated by miners, now it's clearly derivatives trading as well as futures. But just like when $40K was broken to the upside back in July, this can flip to bullish leverage very quickly. I totally agree with the statement that is now in bold; in fact, I also posted something along these lines...and I also agree that it is perhaps conditional on whether we revisit at least mid 30-ies area. In fact, this is the second best scenario (the best being a simple bull continuation) as it would suggest the lows (or a simple retest of 29-30K) by the Spring and then off we go (bullish period of the next cycle starts). |
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Seriously though, any chance we could resume the bull market? Nothing would make me happier, I am doubtful though.
Just for you, since I know you're still holding 75% of stash and therefore hoping for upside. Here are some squiggly lines for you, as if drawn by a child, with volume profile included: The point beside being a little drunk rn, is that last years move from $30K-$40K (accumulation) to $50K-$60K (distribution) meant very little in the long-term perspective, as price didn't continue higher. Now price has dropped from $69K down to $40K, it again means very little in the long-term, only that it's likely price returns to the accumulation zone. Just like when price returned to the distribution zone, for more distribution. I think despite all the technical analysis, fundamentals, on-chain data and otherwise that vary between bullish and bearish, this is pretty neutral trading right now. Bouncing from above the accumulation zone, prior to further accumulation would be very bullish, but otherwise returning to the accumulation zone isn't as bearish as people consider, as there's nothing unhealthy about long-term consolidation at higher levels. Of course price could drop to $25K, even $20K, but ultimately for the past 12 months this has always been the case. The only difference is that now it's less likely it seems. I'm still pretty bearish short-term, as only see broken support from what turned out to be no mans land (not re-accumulation), but I otherwise struggle to consider that the bear market has truly begun given the healthy accumulation and distribution pattern. Sure it could take some months, maybe even many, but I doubt it will take until 2023, 2024 or 2025 until there is a new ATH again. Nice analysis, but TA cannot include some macro factors like Chinese ban in May 2021. Without it, we would have made the trip to 100K already, most likely. I am generally agreeing with everything, apart from the new ATH in 2022, but, hey, I think that 60K and even a stretch to 65K is possible, so it could be close. To contrast, you still think that we are in the bull market, whereas I think that prior is either already over or ending with, hopefully, a milder bear (it very well just be a retest of 29K plus minus one-two K). To me, there is nothing in current behavior that indicates bull continuation. Alas, if it suddenly turns up, I might consider that the bull is still alive, otherwise I am of the opinion that we are in the new market cycle already with relative flat (or band of 29-60K) continuing for a while. |
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@LFC let's take it one day at the time.
Sure, it could go either way.
Looked at all Webb's stuff. Awesome so far.
Fingers crossed for the deployment into final orbit and individual mirror alignments.
I am "ready" for it to observe either a Dyson sphere (if there are any) or just funky "primordial" gas from 13.5-13.7 bil years ago.
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Of course, these are not easy choices regarding how much to shave off.. just for insurance purposes, and yeah, the end of 2019 was surely not a good time to be shaving off too many BTC for insurance purposes (or consumption or tax purposes), and maybe just a period for HODL and to get funds from other sources. I have to correct something: I typed the wrong year, and fixed my post: it was the end of 2020 when I sold a substantial part to pay taxes, not 2019. That was around 75% under the peak price. Still not desirable, but better than 2019 would have been. Just paid my largest tax bill ever. glad I sold enough in the 62-67k range to cover them. You pay estimated? Good practice, quite big fees if you underpay by April (and do it two years in a row). I always pay whatever turbotax tells me to pay as estimated PLUS if a big sell happened, then add estimated cap gains tax for that Q. |
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