Very roughly : BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.
If that ever happens, I'll do what McAffee has promised for 2020 1 million's prediction.  Ever and Never are bold or foolish words. |
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This is how ... Rough figures only. All fits together if you consider my other prognosis : Not all alts are doomed (just most of them , numerically). Some will be in for very big rises : their market cap share will rise relative to BTC.
Very roughly : BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN.
How much time do you think we will be at 2k, considering the fundamentals and the increasing adoption by big investors? Well, thats a tricky one, but if past history is anything to go by, the low print could be instantaneous, ie less than a day. (or it might be a double bottom) |
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It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so.
How'd you figure that one out when you've said BTC is going to $2K and the alts are doomed? This is how ... Rough figures only. All fits together if you consider my other prognosis : Not all alts are doomed (just most of them , numerically). Some will be in for very big rises : their market cap share will rise relative to BTC. Very roughly : BTC at ~2k = 40BN, Best 20 alts at $60BN total, gives a bottom of ~100BN. |
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After years of watching bitcoin, I can confidently say for it now, "The more the dump, the better the jump!"
Dominance back up to 45.5%. Crypto market-cap now $275 billion. I'm speculating it can't go less than $250 billion.
It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so. Time is compressed these days. Each boom and each bust is compressed into a shorter and shorter amount of time. I am a lot less sure of my predictions on how low it will go than I am with the prediction that, how ever low it ends up going, I do not think this will be a protracted multi year long ordeal like it was in the past. You could be right, in the sense that, in stock/commodity cycle highs and lows, Time and Price have a relationship. eg If Price reaches one target, then time may not reach another, and vice-versa. ie.. one or the other can be targeted more easily than both. |
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After years of watching bitcoin, I can confidently say for it now, "The more the dump, the better the jump!"
Dominance back up to 45.5%. Crypto market-cap now $275 billion. I'm speculating it can't go less than $250 billion.
It is unlikely to go below 100B, but I think well below 250B is a certainty in the next year or so. |
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Sorry guys, my fault
Bought some ether at 500, now everything will fall
I will tell you guys next before I buy
So... you just bought what EOS dumped? Recently, 50,000 ETH were deposited at Bitfinex coming all the way from EOS crowd-sale.  Good point. ETH is now experiencing downside pressure from all the stored ICO funds. FOMO is now gradually being replaced by FOLAYM (Fear of Losing All your Money). There is no telling how low it might go, but I would say a good place too look is around where the real ICO boom started, May 2017. Funds raised when ETH was in the $100-200 range are not yet willing to sell, and might mark a floor. |
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I hope this scam gets called by the SEC.. I want my money back!
Just shrug and write it off to experience. |
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I remember my first 100 ETH cash out @$2 and still crying on the inside. The current dip is viewed by me as an opportunity to approach 100 ETH.
There is big difference between $2 and over $450 I can't understand how anybody can buy if he sold this token at low price. Or you mean price will drop to that level very soon. If I think the price will be 2k next year, I will buy at the current price. 2 dollars not 2k. I dont think it will drop that low. My own guess is that $150 is around the floor. |
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Bloodbath to $2k incoming.
I wish it would happen that quickly, but unfortunately it will take some time. |
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Most of them said that we will never see 4 digits again.
I don't recall any of the regulars saying that. Anyone who did is a delusional toad. 20 grand was the clear peak of the bubble. For a bubble pop to halt before the 50% loss mark would make it... not a bubble. Yes, no doubt correct. ... and you are not ready to sell yet, but would be more ready at say $2500.
The key thing now (and it will prove impossible for most people) is to accept that whatever you hold will decline in $ price by another 75% (making 90% decline in total), and that will take place in a grinding downwards pattern, including long counter-trend rallies, spread over ~2 years.
Too difficult for most ppl to accept. Best course is to go away and do something else for a while.
I didnae realise it was all that certain and 100% locked in. Now I do I'll take it to the bank and cash it. Every post is expressing an opinion. Time will tell who is right. |
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The markets are getting worse and worse as the days are getting worse. We can say that Etherum is experiencing a much more radical decline. But most importantly, how will the Altcoins recover after this hour.
Most (nearly all) altcoins will not recover. The ecosystem cannot sustain them. The market is in a bear phase, and will be for the rest of 2018 at least. But you know don't you, that if I was ever to sell a big portion of my bitcoin, the market would take an amazing turn upwards and go to new all-time-highs, and I would never want to buy back in. It's the rule of perfectly bad market timing. And I would be able to brag that I sold at the exact bottom. That is why I will hold regardless of where the price goes. Yes, no doubt correct. ... and you are not ready to sell yet, but would be more ready at say $2500. The key thing now (and it will prove impossible for most people) is to accept that whatever you hold will decline in $ price by another 75% (making 90% decline in total), and that will take place in a grinding downwards pattern, including long counter-trend rallies, spread over ~2 years. Too difficult for most ppl to accept. Best course is to go away and do something else for a while. |
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The markets are getting worse and worse as the days are getting worse. We can say that Etherum is experiencing a much more radical decline. But most importantly, how will the Altcoins recover after this hour.
Most (nearly all) altcoins will not recover. The ecosystem cannot sustain them. The market is in a bear phase, and will be for the rest of 2018 at least. |
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I haven't eaten in 6 days.
Actually on purpose...but it is appropriate. Maybe at the 10 day mark I will finish the fast and the sun will once again shine on Bitcoin. Like how after Jesus fasted for 40 days he came out and everything worked out just fine...
it is honorable that you are on the way to take one for the team, but starving to death is kind of a too big sacrifice.  Try one day fasts every time BTC drops more than 20%. After a year or two you will have lost some weight. This bear market has only just started. The roadmap goes from 19500 to below 2000, and it will be a long wait, but there will eventually be a turn. |
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I wonder if GAME Will break its ATH satoshi wise, within the next 2 years lol....
Falling trend for the last 6 months. More likely to continue trend than reverse. Can you explain why it keeps falling? opinion? I don't offer a reason for the fall, which is long and steady, having taken Game from 90th position to 120th in a few months. You can find plenty of opinion on that but most of it is difficult to verify and laborious to analyse. As a long-time trader , I always follow the price as an indicator of whether a stock/project is succeeding or failing. With so much 'information' being ambiguous at best ,propaganda or falsehood at worst, the only real truth is in the price. Not a spike/crash or short term blip, but a steady trend shows the real direction of travel. |
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I wonder if GAME Will break its ATH satoshi wise, within the next 2 years lol....
Falling trend for the last 6 months. More likely to continue trend than reverse. |
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I think that there will be 12-24 months of slow bleed, that will have these little sharp upward spikes that the sheep will repeatedly call "reversals".
This is how you get the sheep excited enough to stay in the market while you do the shearing. History will repeat itself.
You are quite correct. A good indicator that the bear market is still on track, is the number of posters who think the opposite and maintain faith that the price will rise. Having watched every twist and turn of the market since 2012, the repetition is easy to see. If you are invested, going to fiat is still a risky option, because the hard part is buying back later. |
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My first attempt of using trading view...
The problem I have with these projected ‘bewildering lows’ is that they are planted just around the halvening. I just do not see this happening in 2020. If it happens, it happens in 2018 or 2019. But somehow, a full blown crypto winter seems far away. So that leaves 2018 as the most probable candidate, should a $2,000 scenario materialise. Actually, I put in lows in late 2019 to be fair, then almost a flat with an upward bias until or close to halvening, then a takeoff. But this is just a sketch with lines that could be drawn differently. I guess my main point is a zigzag in 2018, hard down in 2019, recovery in 2020, then off to the races (higher). I would like to see your projection, though. Then I would guess you are follwing the long-wave chart. A low of $2000 rhymes with the previous major lows, which are just above the top of the high-before-last. Time frame would need to be 1 to 2 years for that big move to play out. The alternative is that we are still in the exponential wave up, which looks increasingly unlkely now, and the longer price fails to make a new ATH, the more likely it is we are in a full Bear Market.. |
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really interested to see what will happen at the 8190-8160 area
Like I already said, newbie, it does not matter until it gets down to $7k-ish or perhaps $6,666... then we are fucked... that is if it gets there.  Please speak for yourself. When price gets to 6666, and you r fucked, can I have your merits  ? Personally, I'm selling the up bounces. You have a plan, and that is good. Taking a view that $2000 would be the bottom, and $1000 would indicate failure of BTC. Those levels have some basis in the historical charts, if you view the whole price history of BTC as 5 big waves. The 5 highs can be estimated at 3x to 10x the previous high, but more accurately, the lows can be estimated just above the preceding high. That gives the $2000 and $1000 levels. It is only one way of viewing it, but better than choosing more arbitary levels. |
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If bitcoin goes up like crazy, alts go down because everyone wants to jump on the btc train.
If bitcoin goes down like crazy, alts go down too because everyone is afraid that the world is gonna end.
Only when btc stays around a certain level for a while, that's when the alts seem to rally.
That being said, I think XMR is a great hedge against BTC, and also one that appreciates in btc value over time!
XMR has outperformed BTC over most time periods during the last 2 years. Looking at a short period is often misleading because prices make their bigger moves in short bursts, with most time spent in trading ranges (and therefore following BTC). XMR is a slow-burn outperformer, because most traders/buyers don't appreciate the importance of fungibility until they have a lot of experience. |
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Pump done and there. Those for the short term may consider selling in this region Yes. Overhead resistance now strong in the $8-$10000 region. The only question is : Will there be one more test of $10k, and then the next leg down, or do we drift down from here ? Lots of support at $2-3000 , but it will take many months, or maybe a year or two to get there. Only a steady move above $12k would restore the bull case. |
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