First rule of trading on btc-e is to turn off the trollbox.

Then when the price finally goes up there won't be any coins left for sale on the exchanges, cue face-melting rally.

Looks like a daily chart with the lows being in the 400s. Doubt very highly that we'll get there, sorry bears. Look at all those recent red candles in a row; the sellers will run out of ammo eventually and we'll form a nice bottom.

I see it, although I've been intrigued with this particular pattern for a long time.  A simpler way to look at it is a pennant continuation with a dip at the end. There's usually a 50-60% initial correction from the top, a final bull run that ultimately fails, then a long drawn out bear market with final capitulation. And of course the longer the timescale the more volume involved and the more weight the analysis carries. I mean we could rocket up tomorrow but I'd watch for a bottom to form in the 6h/4h charts first. At this time I'm not convinced.

Have a look at the 12h/1d chart, from June's runup ($680 top) to now.

It resembles a smaller version of bitcoin's larger "bubble" cycle, which is repeated all over in digital currency land and in varying sizes if you look, and of course represents repeated actions of market participants in response to external events and their own psychology. It's really more of a drawn-out correction cycle as the value is always overshot by excited buyers, then corrects in waves as the market seeks a fair price.

With that in mind there is definitely room for more downside (550-560) as we are in final capitulation of this cycle, a heavy distribution (selling) phase where morale is lowest. Then the cycle repeats again with a large accumulation (buying) phase. When that will happen I'm not sure, early/mid August is a pretty good guess.

The recent price drop was initiated on the Chinese exchange (it is the market maker, others follow its price). Check the charts, they always move the price.

Coinbase/Bitpay sell their coins on Bitstamp.

Think about this for a moment.

Market just got bored, traders in China saw a weakness and dumped a lot of coins. They probably hoped it would go lower. 

looks much better on a log scale

That's because you're looking at a 5 minute chart of what could very well be a bull trap.

There is a good chance of this. Then again I sold my trading stash last night so I'm biased.

Depends on your definition. Some trolls are just super annoying bears that shamelessly talk their book, then whine when they lose money.

One usually sees this when the price stagnates with insufficient buying support. Market participants see this and take advantage.

Markets are said to fall on their own weight, here is a good example of that.

I can't understand why smart people who "get" what Bitcoin is have such a problem with TA. It's psychology.

I can take any excited bull market run-up and use TA to estimate how much it will retrace by using fib retracements and/or law of threes. To say there's no merit in it is ridiculous. Will it tell me exactly? No. But I can get a lot closer than guessing.

If you're searching random indicators, reading about them for five minutes on stockcharts.com and thinking you can make money, you're doing it wrong.  

I use TA all the time to trade profitably. Experience is also important, you can't really read a couple books and jump in... you have to understand market psychology which is what TA actually is.

Best way:

Use Diceware to create a strong master password consisting of 6 or more random words. Keep a written copy in a safe place until it's memorized, then destroy it. Remember to keep your computer unplugged from the internet while you do this, and don't say the numbers or corresponding words out loud while rolling the dice.

Download Keepass on your devices (ports available for Windows, Linux, Android and ios). Unlike other password managers, Keepass is fully open source.

Use your Diceware password as your master Keepass password. Use it to generate long random passwords for everything you do online.

Keep multiple copies of your Keepass database file backed up. Using a cloud service for this is a no-brainer as the database file is useless unless someone knows your master password.

When you need a password simply open Keepass, type in your master password to unlock the database and copy/paste. Keepass has lots of neat features like 2-channel auto-type obfuscation to thwart keyloggers, clipboard auto-clear, and database auto-lock after a specified amount of time. There are dozens of options to customize it to your security comfort level.

Enjoy the extra sleep you get from having unbreakable passwords

GUYS

First rule of bitcoin bubble club!

A correction will be a change in trend, just on a smaller scale. The larger trend would still be intact. I look for reversal patterns. Volume is important too. I'm looking at the 12h chart... sorta see a double top, maybe a h&s...declining volume makes me nervous... but you never know because Huobi could explode upward again.

If we retraced back more than 75% of the current rise on heavy sell volume I would question it. Still, looking at last summer's chart you can see we retraced 50-60% after a strong ascent out of final capitulation, then the uptrend continued.

I agree. Don't look at the previous rise in terms of pass or fail. We got a nice rise with solid volume--I'd say that's a success. After a correction (which is inevitable at some point, we can't move up forever) the uptrend will likely resume.

I personally didn't put much serious consideration into the Willy nonsense. Since Gox is priced in, it would affect the market little, if any. Plus traders noticed it turn on/off while it was running, so it's not something new.

I turned more bearish last night watching the waning buy support on Huobi (the market maker, aka exchange to watch first) around 3600. The longer this sideways/downward consolidation draws out on decreased volume, the more chance bears will start to sell. We are also overbought on the 1d/3d RSI, historically a pretty decent indicator when calling tops.

What comes up, must come down. Markets tend to fall on their own weight when there's not enough buy support. This is especially true of these markets because they are so small and overshoot like an excited teenager, then correct heavily.

All in good time though. I'm still bullish for the coming months. Good times ahead for BTC holders.

Folks are simply excited to see a true bull market again. Agreed that we shouldn't be talking about ATHs yet. Far too early.