no the chance is about 4 or 5 out of 233.

  that is about 1 or 46 or 1 of 50.  still a very nice prize and not terrible odds.

I done long price calculations of the top 10 pools and they are all very close to the same.   I have seen bitminter have great days and piss poor days as I have seen most pools have the same results.  

I really see no downside doing this from Nov 26 to Nov 30.

 I do see possible issues doing it from the 4th to the 30th ie bitminter has a long losing streak for 2 or 3 weeks.

 

we may not lose anything.  


   earning coins  in pool a vs pool b  

  involves luck/variance  

   so pool a  could earn more in a given period of time then pool b


lets say our current pool BTC guild    has a good day  and bitminter has a bad day   


  we were better off being in the first pool   we make 2 coins  in the second pool we make 1.8 coins since they had a bad day.

  So entering for 25 days in a row in bitminter  our coop may earn less the 25 days in a row at btc guild.

 it could earn more.    we can't tell for sure and we can only estimate if the loss or gain at either pool would be +5 or 0 or -5 over the next 25 days or even +1 or minus 1.    But as diff gets worse and the time enter is shorter we would not have very much to lose or gain on the mining end.

 agreed   which for a 26 day commitment for all of us I hesitate.  

For the group waiting til mid NOV or late NOV is less to lose. with the same prize at stake

yeah but after the 16th diff will be more then 600 mill and our earnings are down a lot from the current 390 mill.   so enter late ( Nov 16th ) at a minimum should be pretty much an easy choice to make.  enter this week on the 5th is a bit tougher choice.

 
   if I had 4th in my pocket I would run on bitminter starting today  and up to the 30th.  but we are a group and the down side is 25 days we don't win and our earnings are  2 or 3 btc less.

 BTW we would not be sure if the earnings are less or more then if we stay with the current pool  we would only be able to estimate with an unknown error margin.    

 the reason is our shift of 4th  from the current pool to bitminter would have an effect on both pools luck and/or variance.

 So we would only be able to do a calculation est of what should happen with normal luck and or variance.

 I used to gamble a lot all kinds of games of chance and I did a lot of game theory  work for fun and /or profit.

It is why I mentioned this contest as the cost to enter is 'free' or very little or you get paid to enter.  the win is a knc jupiter .

Lets say we wait til 2 diff adjustments pass late NOV diff is at 700 mill and we have 5th in the coop. 



 at 700 mill diff 5th earns 3.587 btc  so NOV 27 28 29 30   we enter   normal luck we earn about 14.3 btc      so if those 4 days earn 13.3 btc our bad luck is 1btc down  (BTW we would never know for sure that staying in the other pool would have been better or worse since the act of moving the 5th from the original pool changes its luck)


  the  worst downside of late enter is we don't win the contest  and we lose 1 or 2 coins.
 the lesser downside of late enter is we don't win the contest and we earn the same amount of coins
 the least downside of late enter is we don't win the contest and we earn  1 or 2 coins extra.   

upside we win the contest and don't really give a shit about the coins  mined     since   plus or minus 1 or 2 coins against the jupiter are really good.

  if you do this on the 16th of NOV  with diff at 580 mill   you have a bigger chance to win the contest  but  more earnings could be won or loss  with a larger variance  we could be plus, even or minus up to 5 coins.


and lastly if we start in a day or two  we have the biggest chance to win but the up or down of the coins could be as much as 7 or 8 coins.

 for me if I had the 4tb or  5tb why not do all 26 days left.  but there are good arguments to wait until  the adjustment on the 16th of nov  or even wait until the last 2 or 3 days of the contest.  Just food for thought.

I agree and since this is a 1 month contest we can wait until the next diff comes. It will be at 500 mill. lets say on the 5th of nov.  then on the 16th of nov the diff is 650 mill. 

 we can steer our hash on the 16th since the contest runs until the 30th.


better yet  the diff adjusts again on the 27th of nov.   lets say it is at 800 mill we enter the last 3 days of the contest.   our earning power will be far lower then  so less to lose.  we hash the last 3 days of the contest. In a sense it is less stressful and less risk.

  since top prize is a knc miner jupiter with 550gh hash  it would help the coop's hash rate or even just sell it for a 1 time pay off.

  look realistic thinking is we won't win  but cost is not that high to enter  and by waiting for at least 1 diff move after tues diff move.  ie join the 16 of nov  our downside is lowered since we will have more back on our investments.


The pool pays nmc btc fees are not high variance is so so they have 5 to 10 percent of the network.  auto payout can be set.

  I do agree that we don't need to do it.  We can wait a bit until we get more return .

SO we are nearing dividends.  we earned 134 btc

https://blockchain.info/address/1AddiCt8ghkH8zwPpcv8W8SxcQEoGTSJFS


minus 25 btc = 109 btc minus 10 btc for power = 99 btc  divide by 334800 shares = .000295698  


 I have 1250 shares   so I would get close to .37 btc this week.


the .00295698  a share is close but I would think it will be a little higher. we should earn a few more coins in the next 6 -12 hours.


 last week it was .0037241 a share.

   this buy has been okay   run well and in terms of usd (which is how my tax return is done) it looks like it will turn a profit by years end.

 in terms of BTC it will take longer.  thank you to the runners of this buy. bob and tyrion

yeah these may never get to the correct price level.  still I want one. should have it in a few days.

It is a month long contest so we can enter and leave at will during the month.  basically you have to hit a block to win and the block has to have the lowest number. 

 it is strictly a numbers game more hash = better chance.  contest runs until nov 30th


Verifiability: Hopefully your mining software will show if you have created a block (BitMinter client does). Your block will show with your user name in the block list. Click the height number for details. There is a link there to blockchain.info where you can see the hash value of the block both on the page and in the URL. The lowest hash value wins. Hash values are shown in hexadecimal. 0-9 is lower than A-F. A is lower than B. Pretty simple.



Current standings

Place   Name   Hash
1   bitmeme   
00000000000000005451a0d7bada8789d075077477166a33b2ddac454daf3d1f
2   mralbi   
000000000000000094d4610e3a7fc18637fdab6e1711bfb8e24e4c0c62215e8a
3   bibene   
00000000000000014f2c8f4441ad96b5e87f22ae743a7befa20c24225671c744
4   EnderX   
00000000000000018d20c1cad65b54aa535eaecf3da86d25b847a997b1ccd9f7
5   jassem   
0000000000000001a6372a6b1324b9506c38e9feced83de46d12c4e8048258ab
6   heretik   
0000000000000001b83c244e1fe407043ea68a8795b86dcdb5c7a8350691cf67
7   Hawk   
0000000000000001f630517e750c08ee4616d9d7a361920a7ef242a9a015b893
8   bass1012dash   
0000000000000002b79a70b5c114fdad0397c16e1c7097850b46fa8dc12f1b69
9   Fefox   
0000000000000003486be706ecdaf61a21025b09b0b30a30cd22d2744c54a8de
10   Maze305   
00000000000000040695e7f4f0fd11e95db8e69bee1b2c2f64d979b09784e487

Okay I mined at only 1 mine www.bitminter.com

 two reasons I like the plug n play java client.  I was unable to set up any other working mine due to time constraints and while I have a lot of skills writing code has always been tough on me.   It also has become a good selling point for my ebay buyers as I cater to Asic miner usb stick buyers and help them set up on bitminer.com

  Bitminter.com has a 1 month contest  


  the winner gets a free knc miner a very nice prize.  I have 32gh out of 230th  or about a 1 in 7000 chance of winning the prize.    our current hash power is over 3tb going to be over 4tb by monday.     if we hash at bitminter  we could win a knc miner  no cost to enter and the pool pays close to the pools we use now.     if we point 4th  at the pool we have a 4 in 230 chance of winning the contest at no cost .



https://bitminter.com/mintrace  


 this is the contest.   I was a top 50 player on site for close to a year.  but I am more into using this coop now.

the contest runs the length of nov.  and more hash power means a better chance of hashing a block.   it would be nice to get a free knc miner.

 we don't have to make a commitment .  I do realize that we have a good pool to mine in now but I like the idea of the shot at winning the miner. 

I am feeling lucky.

 that  looks like 7 of these

 http://www.ebay.com/itm/161140906217?



I have 2x 49 port hubs running they run 41 and 44 hubs each and I am running a 20 port hub.


one of my 49 port hubs has a bad row of 7  it has power but no hubs can be read on it.  it is okay as I am using a few of those 7 dead ports to power usb 3 fans.

I think a good mobo can do 3x  49 port hubs and up to 120 sticks  40 on each.  I have a third hub on the way.


 and I am using this 5 port  pcie usb2

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0026I4DZ2/ref=oh_details_o04_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

with this mobo

http://www.amazon.com/Asus-MAXIMUS-GENE-Intel-Motherboard/dp/B007RIFJPY/ref=sr_1_1?s=electronics&ie=UTF8&qid=1383446793&sr=1-1&keywords=asus+maximus+v+gene


with windows 7

I would bail. once a major delay happens the company turns out like bfl or avalon

My shares are spread across 9-10-11-12 even though most are in 9 and the money has sat longer in the coop's hand then my later share in r 12 I do not mind.


some math 9-10-11-12  should be 400 shares at least 8.34 gh each   grand total of 3.336 th  and we are at 1.2 th so  we are hashing at
35%
  fast ballpark number and I just finished a big meal and a lot of wine so my math could be bad.  Still want to thank you for getting it up and running on time even if it is at 35%

I purchased one . thanks looking forward to using it.

I VOTE refund.  I would also consider taking the refund and putting it into dZ coop's  r9-r10-r11-r12-r13 fury machine.  My logic is this.  

Dz's coop has very little gear from  HASHFAST  ,   As a coop we are better off that hashfast crashes and burns.  

It would be good for our r5, r6 ,r9, r10 ,r11, r12, r13 in Hand gear.

 I forget all the details on this buy but we used cash not btc as the number.


  I have 1 share and 1 upgrade  what was that in usd>  the upgrade was 43 usd what was the share 155usd ??

 so 1 share + 1 upgrade = 198 usd?    that would be about 1.5 shares of r13 .

  I for one  would do that . 

Disclaimer as to my math for the above    it = very fuzzy.  but close

I purchased this usb2 pcie 5 port

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0026I4DZ2/ref=oh_details_o04_s00_i00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

So it looks like up to 5x hubs with 40-44 sticks each will work on one pc.

I realized that I can put these hubs all in a row.  So I found a nice product for fan screens


http://www.lemproducts.com/product/4161/dehydrator-accessories    




  it is safe up to 275 f  

  I will cut a piece  to fit on top of 3x 49 port hubs


The photos below are not complete but you can see that the plastic screen would go over 3x even 5x hubs.

 I believe 6x 120mm 12 volt fans would cool all 3 hubs.   I should have a complete setup by   Wednesday .

 I have a bamboo tray from target. it will fit the 3 hubs and the 3 atx psus  will stack under it.

setup should hash close to 45gh.

I will understock the hubs  43-45  not the 49. 


************************************________________________********************************************
got second hub running  2 hubs











see silverstone filter stops short issues

MANY  Asic usb stick buyers on ebay (I resell some sticks keep some for me)  can run a small hub with 4 sticks or even a 10 port hub in a free power setup.  Think dorm room.   A 7 port hub link this one.

http://www.amazon.com/GearMo%C2%AE-7-Port-Power-Adapter-Cable/dp/B00BZABE72/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1383364839&sr=8-1&keywords=gearmo+7+port

  will run 7 asic miner  sticks at under 30 watts.


1 blade needs 70 watts .  It is not plug n play on bitminter's java client. A lot of ebayers use doc h's java client

So if someone  has 7 AM sticks running right now on free power.  selling one of these will be an easy sale  plug n play.

More then 500000 AM sticks are hashing at this time worldwide.  these will sell they are a natural upgrade to any AM stick owner.   I do agree that .49 btc is high    7 am sticks cost .245 btc   half the price.

These could be lower  priced if they can make a lot of them.

I will message him.  It would be nice to have a plug n play upgrade.

well I will set the 3x hubs up run a 130 stick farm .  it will earn money until diff reaches 1.5 bill.   it will also space heat my basement ht room.  and the fans running it to be cool will  be quiet fans.  We got a power bill decrease for the winter  I drop to .153 usd a k watt vs .179   so that helps.


I am hoping to convert to 2.5gh furies or a bigger better am stick.  in jan or feb.  


meanwhile  I will have a paid for 500 watt space heater. that will give me  or 60k btu a day in heat.