I mean that is supposedly the cycle is right? 2017 bull run, then followed by the bear market. So the pattern continues so not sure what you new trends are seeing here. So 2023 is pre-halving year, next year we will have the catalyst for the next bull then it might continue up to 2025.

So yeah, this is not a full pledge bull run, it's that investors are trying to push for a good price at least at the end of the year and again, for the preparation of a bitcoin block halving. So there's no new pattern, just the normal cycle that we have been seeing.

You can look the data in here:



https://www.coinglass.com/today

Changing countries is only a solution if you have enough money to make it worth the effort and are renouncing your citizenship and obtain it in a country that can not have you extradited to your first country.  But even then there are consequences.  You can not see your family any more.  You can not see your country any more.  And much more.

Hiding from taxes in a suspicious way only leads to more problems.

True words you wrote.  But now you make me wonder.  Even if some body was from US and moved to Germany.  Do they have to pay taxes in United States if they started working in Germany as a bartender?  Would that not mean double taxation?

Maybe a better approach is finding a way to do your Cryptocurrency business in a more tax friendly country.  I wonder if then you would still need to pay your tax in the States.

The States are weird in this regard anyway.  They seem so annoyingly territorial and dominant up to a point where you completely avoid the idea of ever getting citizenship over there.  The land of freedom, they say?

Really? Tell that to a person willing to buy $10 worth of BTC. According to you, he now has to pay like what? $50 in fees?   No, we're not pushing anyone out, never.    And to "make blockchain space as much valuable as possible" is the ultimate goal for miners not for all bitcoiners or market in general...

You are correct but bip 125 is not a consensus rule, i.e not following its rules doesn't make a block invalid, your node could be set up in a way that it doesn't even signal RBF and still allow transaction replaceability.

Here is a theory of why other pools would mine the second set of transactions even if the sum fee is lower on that second transaction, and just to keep things simple, we would just assume it's a 270 transaction with 100 inputs and a single output  

Total vSzie = 14810 Vbyte paying 100 sat per Vbyte would mean 3,998,700 sats , you could fit 270 of those in a single block i.e you make 399,870,000 sats

You are a pool with 10% the hashrate, i,e you find 1 block every 10 blocks, and you see that the second transaction spends 1 input of each transaction, a transaction size of 14810 paying 1350 sat / Vbyte or 19,993,500 , while the original transactions pay 100 sat, and you still have some transactions paying 200 sat/Vbyte that are enough only for 2 more blocks , why wouldn't you as a pool rush to include that transaction that is paying almost 7 times the other transactions?

bip 125 concept maximizes profitability on a global scale, i,e if enforced by everyone and all transactions are non-miners, if those 270 transactions were user transactions and no miners were playing games, and they were all on the same line, it would make sense, why replace a 4 BTC reward for a mere 0.2 BTC reward? reject the second transaction keep 4 BTC worth of reward floating until it's time comes, but we don't know if no miners are "playing those games".

Antpool and Foundry alone own 52% of the total hashrate, so they are most guaranteed to find every other block, in my above example if their "spam transactions" cost them 4BTC they are almost guaranteed to retrieve 2 BTC in the worst case scenario even without having to play those games (mempool runs out of higher paying transactions and those spam transactions start to be picked by others), obviously, those vague number of mine would not work -- but if they carefully evaluate the numbers they could manage to artificially raise the fee rate by injecting BTC into the system in order to extract more of it.

This remains but a theory that some people believe in, it could be valid, we don't know if there are enough real users paying anything above 10 sats, and half of those transactions could be there for spam, where x, y, z pools spend 0.2 BTC on each block to raise the total fees to 1 BTC, and if they find at least 1/4 of those blocks -- they make more money.

Have you heard of the lately and greatest thing in the meme space today?
BONK run on the Solana blockchain.
Not sure if this has to do with BRC-20 tokens as I have not followed the Solana technology at all. Since FTX and their blockchain going down multiple times. Only blockchain that is secure is BTC.
Remember this number one law of the blockchain.
But it must be making moves in the cryptocurrency space. Solana came out with a phone and it sold out due to them airdropping this BONK token on every phone that from today's markets is worth more than buying than the phone itself. So those who managed to get one got paid to purchase this phone.
They were selling out within hours of multiple units in a course of being released yesterday.
Now that is a way to sell a product in the cryptoverse.

This is indeed a big deal but it’ll be another year before it goes into effect so the timing of it being announced right before the ETF approval doesn’t mean much. What it does mean is that a perfect storm is once again brewing for the 4 year ATH to get set in mid/late 2025. Exciting for people who are already happy with the $40K price.

Unless you (the mining pool) manage to find a block and include the replacement transaction, you will still lose a big amount of money.

Take note that according to BIP125, the fee paid for the replacement transaction must be greater than the total fee paid for all the transactions that are evicted from the mempool after the replacement.

Let's say I have made a transaction with 100 input and 100 output with the fee rate 100 sat/vbyte and now I want to replace that with a transaction with 1 input and 1 output.
Even if I use the fee rate of 250 sat/vbyte for the new transaction, almost all nodes will reject it.

The fees are clearly getting out of hand. This is crazy, I have survived the first fee surge during the hard fork times and I can say that current fees can compare. I remember paying several grand for moving my hard fork gains. Well I believe we're going into that direction. Kinda stupid: Bitcoin price will moon but the fees will be too high to withdraw.  

Thanks monkey pic fans!  

Ordinals are definitely one of the biggest reasons, the other years didn't have ordinals and this year has them, plus we are getting to a higher price, remember we were 15k just only couple months ago, inside the same year I think? Were we ever 15k in 2023? Not sure but it was somewhere a year ago, and now we have tripled that in price at our peak, and that means fee would go up, combine that with ordinals and suddenly you have yourself a great explanation why the fees are much higher these days.

I get that it may not be all that simple, and I get that you may not enjoy that but that's just how it is and we should see it, that's the most important part right now and could be considered a bit of a trouble on the long run.

Hello Everyone,

  I am new to mining and been doing a ton of research of what to buy and what to look out for.  I'm looking to buy a ASIC miner, but really don't want to pay the mark up.  Eventually I would like to mine all the types of crypto, but have to start off with something.  For example, IceRiver looks good, but on their website they are sold out. If I look on eBay there is a huge mark up on them.  Any advice where else to buy?  Do I trust the https://www.asicminervalue.com/ telling me that Akminer, Nhash, Jingle Mining, ect are trusted resellers.  Is there some where I should follow when the latest ASIC is released or a mailer list to get on?  It appears to be ahead of the game is to buy as soon as it is released.  Looking at this a just a fun hobby.

Thanks in advance.

There should be ways not to work after getting into your mid to late 60s, and why should we want to be worrying about a few hundred bucks from signature campaigns.

Even my ideas of sustainable BTC withdrawal might allow for 21 BTC to serve as a decently income of a couple thousand extra per month to supplement any other cashflows that you might have (see my latest chart), and it seems to me that the amount of sustainable withdrawal should be continuing to go up... since the 200-week moving average continues to move up, and even in last year and a half, it had a bad year and a half, but it still went up at about an average of 20% per year (which is it's lowest increases in its recorded history) (see my entry-level fuck you status chart).

I am personally considering that in the coming years, 21 BTC should be able to provide $3k to $4k or more income per month, which would be 10x to 20x greater than the better paying signature campaigns.

Regarding the actual topic, it seems that several of the compromises theymos made over the last couple of weeks are enough to show that he is likely not wanting to be draconian in his various kinds of enforcement, so likely members would need to be somewhat blatant in their promotion of specific mixing services, and surely some members are more reliant on interactions in which they are able to obfuscate their transactions, which seems to be rights that we have, and surely many of us are likely concerned about various kinds of government overreach when it comes to monitoring us and also quelling our various kinds of speech, and we have rights to speak, but surely on a forum like this, the person running the forum (theymos in this case) might sometimes be under pressure if some kinds of safeguards are not taken.. even though there are also Section 230 protections.. yet I would imagine many forum operators, whether theymos or otherwise, would prefer to not have to make any court appearances to defend their section 230 protections... and then there sometimes are ambiguities between financial laws that might even conflict with section 203 protections, including some of the new legislative proposals that are likely vague and overreaches and abuses of governmental powers.

I'm in the UK phil, surprised you don't remember 

PM me and we can sort something out.


The scam side of it seems to be more to do with the fact they offer cloud mining contracts and we all know how they can go.

Hi Phil,

I think there is something in what your saying but understanding is that Btc fees are designed in this way, but maybe in that design it was aimed more at those blocks in much later halving in like 12-50 years to ensure value is there for the miners, rather than the current and very soon halvings.

Within my own research the fees are dust when it’s a big transaction but small ones are significant %. The current design is like forcing me to convert Btc to fiat say like $1000(one transaction )vs spending 100$ btc x 10 times(10 transactions) the smaller you go the more ridiculous the fees are but just here as an example only

If anyone has reading materials on the 10 vs 1 transaction fees and how to not have to convert back to fiat but not lose so much in fees pls tell me.

As to fees offsetting halving impact, my question would be back to the miner community when they are calcing out  Btc rev is this extra value included in your cost per Btc mined. I do hold some inference that Btc bottoms are linked somewhat to the cost to mine coin.

I hope people remember what happened in December 2017 as last quarter of 2017 we witnessed bull run and during second half of December we saw price of Bitcoin dropping down and eventually triggered bearish market for next 3 years approximately and we are going through similar stuff but this is not a full fledged bull run but still we have seen crazy pumps for some Altcoin and even Bitcoin has increased. Are we going to witness price correction or bear market now ? Or else this time it's gonna be different and Bitcoin will reach new ATH and we won't see any bearish pattern in December ?

Do you think that a private pool like Foundry will collude with other mining pools for a 51% attack? And which centralized exchange will they attack?
If you do not make transactions during the attack, then your bitcoins are safe.

I've come across plenty of speculation about Bitcoin even before joining the forum. I remember when people said that the current rise in the price of Bitcoin doesn't necessarily mean it's a bull run. Even now, with Bitcoin at $44k, there are still speculations that it will dip.

During the Bullish Trend

$36k -- btc will dump
$38k -- btc will dump
$40k -- btc will dump
$42k -- btc will dump
$44k -- btc will dump

If by any chance bitcoin goes below 36k or further they would say they were right  about this. I want to know if it is possible for someone to be a bitcoin expert. Like a person who is always right about his/her speculations even if it takes sometime to be confirmed.

It's not a very good analogy because in the democracy of the "free world" we value and enjoy freedom of expression. So, you're pretty much allowed here to say things like "Fuck you Biden, stop the war!"


Not all protests against governments are inherently or universally negative. Especially when they advocate for human rights.

(Just to be clear, I'm talking in general. I'm not advocating that theymos should openly oppose laws or regulations in this case.)