Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[bitcoinBull]

Really thin order book reminds me of the good ol days...

[netrin]

Then the fundamental question is are trends related to rates of change?

YES!!! Abso-@%$-lutely. Have you ever heard an economist, or anyone actually, refer to inflation in nominal terms? "The price of total goods and services went up from $16 trillion to $16.0001 trillion last month." No. Percentage, no matter how large or small the nominal numbers.

[nmat]

Then the fundamental question is are trends related to rates of change?

YES!!! Abso-@%$-lutely. Have you ever heard an economist, or anyone actually, refer to the inflation in nominal terms? The price of total goods and services went up from $16 trillion to $16.0001 trillion last month. No. Percentage, no matter how large or small the nominal numbers.

Unfortunately most people here don't understand this. I bet that a lot of trading bots are programmed to act if the price changes $0.X instead of 0.X%. And that's dangerous because now we have a low/high of 2.34/3.74, which means a 40% loss (or gain) in a single day.

[netrin]

I still don't think it matters. Given enough monkies thinking in nominal terms, the price fluctuations will still be best represented on a log scale, irrespective of the timescale. Remember we dropped from $32 to $23 in about three hours. And $16 to $10 back to $25 in the same day. The volatility of bitcoin hasn't changed much. We've had quiet days at all prices and also 50% daily changes at all prices.

[Are-you-a-wizard?]

To be honest, scrap all this technical analysis bullshit.

The only graphs that matter are these http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/

As more people leave Bitcoin the price will go down. There are exceptions to the rule but we are looking at ~10k connections dropped in the last month and there is no sign of it stopping.

[kokjo]

To be honest, scrap all this technical analysis bullshit.

The only graphs that matter are these http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/http://bitcoinmonitor.com/

As more people leave Bitcoin the price will go down. There are exceptions to the rule but we are looking at ~10k connections dropped in the last month and there is no sign of it stopping.

[netrin]

The data doesn't go back very far, but yes, the declines are telling. I'd still like to know what the numbers were in May.

http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/

[Are-you-a-wizard?]

On a more positive note 10k seems like a lot, but when it comes to the internet you could regain all that again overnight. I don't see that happening though unless something major happened such as an electronics company creating some new mobile phone tailored towards payments with Bitcoin pre-installed (most likely alongside other solutions such as Paypal rather than exclusively). Of course it's more likely Paypal would pay that company to be the sole provider on the phone so there is no use waiting for this to happen.

[zby]

Then the fundamental question is are trends related to rates of change?

YES!!! Abso-@%$-lutely. Have you ever heard an economist, or anyone actually, refer to inflation in nominal terms? "The price of total goods and services went up from $16 trillion to $16.0001 trillion last month." No. Percentage, no matter how large or small the nominal numbers.

I still don't see the connection between this and the lines drawn at the charts.  Especially when you say that most investors thing in nominal terms - wouldn't it follow that they see the trends also in nominal terms and thus also making them go as linear functions by self fulfilling prophecies?

[netrin]

I have made no statement about specific lines drawn on a chart, only that a log chart is superior for representing trends, and so trend lines are more meaningful on a log chart.

wouldn't it follow that they see the trends also in nominal terms and thus also making them go as linear functions by self fulfilling prophecies?

See my statement about 'enough monkeys'. Unless all of these nominal monkeys draw the same conclusions, I predict their trend actions will be best represented on a log chart.

They will focus of RELATIVELY round numbers like $100 or $110; $10 or $11; $1 or $1.1.

[BC-Trader]

bit coin worth 2.x today 1.x soon then 0.X after that.

Sorry you guy's can't retire from running your video cards 24/7 on these big expensive computers   that will now flood ebay and bring down your expected recovery value.



But hey, it was a very very nice ride if you took advantage of the human stupidity or if you want to put it nicely "exuberance" know as prices at $30+.....


But the majority did not.  



I wonder how low bitcoin has to go before mtgox pretends it was haxed again and this time "for good"



Count on it.

Or don't

Whatever you like 

[zby]

A propos that long term trend - the $30 price was so much above that long term trend - shouldn't it now drop below it in proportion to that?

[netrin]

That's a possibility. According to my lines, we overshot the channel 4x in May and by your logic perhaps we'll undershoot below by 1/4th. Your guess is as good as any, but certainly nominal values make no sense otherwise we'll undershoot deep into the negatives.

[zby]

That's a possibility. According to my lines, we overshot the channel 4x in May and by your logic perhaps we'll undershoot below by 1/4th. Your guess is as good as any, but certainly nominal values make no sense otherwise we'll undershoot deep into the negatives.

It was not *my logic*, I don't have any experience with this and I am trying to understand the arguments on both sides.

But back to the estimations - if that channel bottom was at $4 that means we can now expect $1 to be the real bottom.

[netrin]

No one expects anything if no one believes "my/your logic". The price had been hovering around $4 for several days and then recently dropped to $2.35. Should we then expect the price to rise to $6.5 ? I don't think it follows. Trend lines are meant to be broken and when they are, they set off exuberance, panic, or satisfaction depending on direction and your position. Perhaps you can look into Bollinger bands to get a sense of this. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bollinger_Bands

[mobodick]

"Trend lines? Where we're going, we don't need trend lines."

By now, they should be called 'bent lines'.
And from there it is not far away to 'bent lies'.
But i diverge...

[Technomage]

I've basically lost my confidence in any kind of trends. Even if the long term trend breaks decisively, it is not the end of Bitcoin. If it can be up in the first place, and then change to down, what is stopping it from changing to up again at some later date? Answer is, nothing. It might take time but it also takes time to build the Bitcoin economy, the real economy.

My only fundamental right now is common sense. One million coins are traded in exchanges, less than 50% are traded at all. At dollar parity the value of the whole economy is therefore between 1 and 4 million dollars. My common sense tells me this is too low. Which is why I believe we will find bottom stabilization at somewhere higher than $1, most likely between $1.5 and $2.5.

That's all I have to go on, until someone can tell me something more convincing.

[netrin]

Outside of the exchange technicals, my feeling is that bitcoin prices need to collapse to pathetic numbers until no one bothers to know/care what the exchange price is. Then we can build bitcoin up on fundamentals. When coders, bloggers, and what not are willing to exchange services for karma boo denominated in bitcoin UNITS, I think then we'll establish a 'base' value. As long as people measure it's value in dollars or potentials, they don't see nor use it's benefits today.

[mobodick]

Outside of the exchange technicals, my feeling is that bitcoin prices need to collapse to pathetic numbers until no one bothers to know/care what the exchange price is. Then we can build bitcoin up on fundamentals. When coders, bloggers, and what not are willing to exchange services for karma boo denominated in bitcoin UNITS, I think then we'll establish a 'base' value. As long as people measure it's value in dollars or potentials, they don't see nor use it's benefits today.

Nah, once/if the coin stabilizes and shows signs of growth speculators will be on top of it in no-time.
Then it will rally recursively and another bubble will be born.
We need regulations...

[netrin]

I'm starting to buy into the commodity-->money theory. Speculation inflates gold price, but it's still some reasonable multiplier above a tradable base value. I don't think we need regulation, I think bitcoin just needs to test some real boundaries, such as some relationship between transaction count and price, or merchants dollar:bitcoin trade volume ratios.