Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[S3052]

this is correct.the long term trend was up until it broke 2 days ago and now all trends are down hard.

I wonder what is going to happen if bitcoins are ruled a currency by the European officials this week / related to th magicaltux case.

This could be a bloodbath for bitcoins.. I hope it won't but its a possibility.
if it I made illegal to trade and exchange without having a banking-type license prices would crash much more than they already did

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[nelisky]

if it I made illegal to trade and exchange without having a banking-type license prices would crash much more than they already did

Well, this could be a real downturn for the open exchanges, but could just as well come to assert one of bitcoin's advertised strength, the non centralized, pseudo-anonymous nature of it. So exchanges could no longer easily exist, it would be much more expensive and complicated, but actual person to person transactions could still exist as they do now, and things like #bitcoin-otc could very well become the central point for unofficial exchanging the btc.

It would certainly put a (temporary?) brake on the bot driven speculation.

[S3052]

Agree with you.

And then bitcoins move from medium-niche-on-track-to-become-mainstream to: mini-niche

[nelisky]

And then bitcoins move from medium-niche-on-track-to-become-mainstream to: mini-niche

Yes, that is unfortunately very true, although I see two major things having impact that may very well change that; the publicity deriving from an EU wide ruling stating Bitcoins are Currency, and the need to change the very definition of Currency on their own rule book and, from that, the attention an 'alternative currency not managed by any central government' would attract to all the struggling or embargoed countries.

There is good potential either way, though I'd personally prefer bitcoins to stay in the "shadow" for a bit longer.

[S3052]

 am curious to find out this news soon..
would be great to know the exact date and time

[netrin]

We haven't heard much from Elliott this month. He told me that "C will be 1.6x deeper than A, and 2012 will make June look flat."

[speeder]

We haven't heard much from Elliott this month. He told me that "C will be 1.6x deeper than A, and 2012 will make June look flat."

Can someone confirm to me that this may be correct?

[proudhon]

Can someone confirm to me that this may be correct?

Of course it may be correct?  The question is "is it correct?".  The answer is that nobody can possibly know that.  What's more likely, given how bitcoin is not attracting new money is that it continues to fall.

[molecular]

We haven't heard much from Elliott this month. He told me that "C will be 1.6x deeper than A, and 2012 will make June look flat."

Can someone confirm to me that this may be correct?

I found this:

There is a standard joke shared by technical analysts that if you were to put twelve Elliott Wave practitioners in a room, they would fail to reach an agreement on wave count and the direction in which a stock is headed.

[dancupid]

We haven't heard much from Elliott this month. He told me that "C will be 1.6x deeper than A, and 2012 will make June look flat."

Can someone confirm to me that this may be correct?

I found this:

There is a standard joke shared by technical analysts that if you were to put twelve Elliott Wave practitioners in a room, they would fail to reach an agreement on wave count and the direction in which a stock is headed.

Elliot waves seem to me the same as looking at ink blots - you see what you need to see. If it wasn't just a matter of psychological projection a simple computer algorithm would be able to 'see' them.

[S3052]

I won't comment on the Elliott wave discussion, because everyone can decide themself to use or not use it, as for any other tool.

But coming back to the technical analysis, the downtrend is intense and inexperienced traders should be careful buying now .
They may be lucky to pick the bottom, but most probably not.
It would not be surprising to see another huge capitulation sell off drawing bitcoin prices well below 2$ and maybe even below 1$.
There are some expert traders in the game using big short selling etc.
Its a wild ride.

[dancupid]

I won't comment on the Elliott wave discussion, because everyone can decide themself to use or not use it, as for any other tool.

But coming back to the technical analysis, the downtrend is intense and inexperienced traders should be careful buying now .
They may be lucky to pick the bottom, but most probably not.
It would not be surprising to see another huge capitulation sell off drawing bitcoin prices well below 2$ and maybe even below 1$.
There are some expert traders in the game using big short selling etc.
Its a wild ride.

I'm very inexperienced - I'm just waiting for some good news, or killer app and an obvious trend, before I dip my toe in again - though I still fundamentally believe in this technology (or something similar - pandoras box has been opened and this or something like it is definitely the future)

[N12]

This is the first time in BTC history that a major crash occured and there was no close with a bounce up in the daily chart, but instead settling in the area of the old low.

I’d say that is a clear confirmation of the broken long term trend. I could see Bitcoin’s spiral of price decrease => loss of interest continue further, as big early miners and speculators continue to take their profits, until the very core of Bitcoin supporters is left. I don’t know when this could be, because I believe that even lots of the early Bitcoiners were only here due to the long term trend, and we know that 1 year ago, the people here sustained a price of 6 cents.

93% off the high, so far. Soon, we will see how much of Bitcoin is based on greed.

It is my opinion that if Bitcoin doesn’t recover, there will not be any worthy successor. We had one shot with the public.

[netrin]

Elliot waves seem to me the same as looking at ink blots - you see what you need to see. If it wasn't just a matter of psychological projection a simple computer algorithm would be able to 'see' them.

Just like psychology, if enough of us believed it to be true, then it would be true. The small count (pink) is eye-ball symmetrical. Waves (I & II) and (c & a) have a fib relationship (based on my fat finger measurements). If bitcoin prices drop significantly below $1 (wave "d" and "e"/five count reversal), then bitcoins may soon be as valuable as my tears.

I can only make poor defense of Elliott waves, as I have little experience using them. But I think on monthly scales, bitcoin produces a compelling wave chart. With the long term support/trend unambiguously broken, there may not be a lot of TA alternatives. If I may quote Wikipedia:

Wave 5: ... everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in ... some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest ...

Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.

Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.

I'll also add that EWP serves as common ground for discussing bitcoin trends with some of the women in my life. So they aren't entirely useless.

[S3052]

agree with you. Elliott waves, if properly understood and used, can provide an edge.

Coming back to bitcoins, it seems that there may be another drop needed, probably taking out the 2$ mark and spike down hard before at least a short term bottom can be put in place.

[wndrbr3d]

This is the first time in BTC history that a major crash occured and there was no close with a bounce up in the daily chart, but instead settling in the area of the old low.

I’d say that is a clear confirmation of the broken long term trend. I could see Bitcoin’s spiral of price decrease => loss of interest continue further, as big early miners and speculators continue to take their profits, until the very core of Bitcoin supporters is left. I don’t know when this could be, because I believe that even lots of the early Bitcoiners were only here due to the long term trend, and we know that 1 year ago, the people here sustained a price of 6 cents.

93% off the high, so far. Soon, we will see how much of Bitcoin is based on greed.

It is my opinion that if Bitcoin doesn’t recover, there will not be any worthy successor. We had one shot with the public.

I think something to keep in mind too is that even though a 6 cent price was sustained a year ago, there's waaaaaaaaaaaay more bitcoins in the chain now, so if bitcoin truly does crash down to the point where the 'core supporters' are the only ones left, I think even $0.06/BTC would be a bit much

[BitterTea]

I think something to keep in mind too is that even though a 6 cent price was sustained a year ago, there's waaaaaaaaaaaay more bitcoins in the chain now, so if bitcoin truly does crash down to the point where the 'core supporters' are the only ones left, I think even $0.06/BTC would be a bit much

You're forgetting that there are more "core supporters" now than a year ago. I'm one of them.

[S3052]

agree with you. Elliott waves, if properly understood and used, can provide an edge.

Coming back to bitcoins, it seems that there may be another drop needed, probably taking out the 2$ mark and spike down hard before at least a short term bottom can be put in place.

And if there is not another low soon, chances increase that a big bounce up happens soon , forcing short sellers to cover quickly.

[fivebells]

Hahahaha.  The clock has stopped again.

[fivebells]

I just mean that S is talking about possible bull runs again.  Not "strong buy"s though.  Sorry, was being a bit unfair.