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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 510063 times)
netrin
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October 17, 2011, 03:26:07 PM
 #1401

I'm not an experienced trader by any means, but I've managed to keep my shirt since June (though I've lost my shoes along the way). Bitcoin is too volatile and depreciative to hold onto for even 24 hours. That could (irrecoverably?) harm any incentive to build the economy up to $50. Do you think experienced traders could help stabilize the price at these levels?

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Apolo29
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October 17, 2011, 03:29:51 PM
 #1402

I wonder what could happen if prices go to a very low price, for example U$S0,1 ?

Will that be a restart for the btc or the end?
kokjo
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October 17, 2011, 03:37:07 PM
 #1403

...or the end?
can't be! the bitcoin idea is simply too big. it might be the end of bitcoin, but not the proof-of-work-chain cryptocurrency system.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
mobodick
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October 17, 2011, 03:42:38 PM
 #1404

I wonder what could happen if prices go to a very low price, for example U$S0,1 ?

Will that be a restart for the btc or the end?
It was predicted by my Bitcoin Technical Apocalypse...
It's a bit like Ouroboros, only it has a goats head.
Lemme quote:

"And thereafter, whens all the bitcoin speculators go forth onto the world, so shall the coin of bits rise onto my people and deliver them from monetary slavery.
And the people will eat of the fruits, and the oms and the noms and the om nom noms.
And they will rejoice at the sight of the speculators and they will know, they have been delivered."

-Bitcoin Technical Apocalypse, Johnson 5:42
slush
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October 17, 2011, 03:50:44 PM
 #1405

Nah, once/if the coin stabilizes and shows signs of growth speculators will be on top of it in no-time.
Then it will rally recursively and another bubble will be born.
We need regulations...

... history is repeating.

netrin
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October 17, 2011, 04:07:24 PM
 #1406

...I say that the kind of Amazon/Ebay e-commerce model is not really the thing for Bitcoin. The target should be more of a Western Union... Short term transfers. That both depends on healthy exchanges, and helps to ensure the health of the exchanges.
Yes, I think the evolution of the economy had been inevitable: Exchanges provide liquidity. The Western Union/Bit-pay models capitalize on the only inherent value of the bitcoin system (secure, non-reversible, semi-anonymous transactions). But it's a pity because the community wants to 'own' this commodity. Perhaps we can look forward to exchanges backed by physical commodities.

What was the sentiment like in April (the previous local minima/bear trap)? I believe bitcoins are far more useful today than they were in April and consider prices under $1 a panicked undershoot into irrational despair.

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Flappy
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October 17, 2011, 04:22:38 PM
 #1407

Quote from: S3052
... Strong Buy ...

Forgot to say... "Simon Says".
kokjo
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October 18, 2011, 10:01:52 AM
 #1408

is there anyone important(S3052) that can comment on: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48840.0

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
S3052
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October 18, 2011, 01:23:06 PM
 #1409

is there anyone important(S3052) that can comment on: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48840.0

Done.
I am travellung .
Hence can't post chats and also have typos...

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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S3052
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October 18, 2011, 03:19:59 PM
 #1410

Here is a post from another thread, but it belongs here.

Ah, the ever popular and controversial log chart.  I actually like log charts for very large changes in price, so let's do it.

The rules of trendlines:
1) Trendlines are an analysis tool, not a law of nature.
2) The more points you hit, the better your line is.
3) The farther you extrapolate your line past the last point, the less predictive power it has.
4) Trendlines predict normal fluctuations.  They become irrelevant after a major market shift that permanently alters market sentiment.

Great to engage with you in this meaty discussion.

I agree with you on points 1)+2), not exactly on rules 3) + 4). Overall, this is an art as you are indicating and no one does this exactly the same. And this is why we will very likely not agree with each other on any chart, and this is fine. In the end, what really counts is that one is more often right than wrong.

Now to the charts:

On rule 3) and 4) Many trendlines, including the 40 year log DJI chart, even work long time after the trendlines have been touched. I have many more examples.

The way you have drawn the trendlines is not really accurate.

(i) When drawing trendlines you have to always start at the lows and connecting these first. Try to find  two significant lows and connect these. (ii) Then see whether you can find a 3rd or 4th touchpoint.
(iii) then draw a parallel trendline connecting highs. if this looks right, you have a great parallel trendchannel.
(iv) if a trendline is broken, then how will you see if this line is important? prices will accelerate the move if the line was really important.

You see this in the attached. And truly, this trendline is the most valid one, because
(a) prices have 4 or even 5 touchpoint lows
(b) the upper parallel trendline (green) also makes sense. bitcoin prices broke out of this line end April and is now back to that level
(c) prices held this line early october to Oct 15/16 and then
(d) at the EXACT time when this trendline was broken for the first time in more than a year, prices crashed -40% two days ago . This is why this line has been and still will be so crucial.

And what one should never forget: trendlines are there to be held and to be broken! When discussing trendlines, one must be aware of both, chances to hold and break and act (trade) accordingly.

Now, looking into the future, this line will either be reclaimed fast, or it will provide strong resistance. At the minimum, the underside will likely be tested soon. This is currently around 3.7-4$.


 

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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kokjo
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October 18, 2011, 03:47:27 PM
 #1411

is there anyone important(S3052) that can comment on: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48840.0

Done.
I am travellung .
Hence can't post chats and also have typos...
thanks.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
ArsenShnurkov
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October 18, 2011, 03:59:02 PM
 #1412

And we need to go deeper !
S3052
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October 18, 2011, 04:38:33 PM
 #1413

you are right, all trends are down now

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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Sultan
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October 18, 2011, 04:42:58 PM
 #1414

you are right, all trends are down now
HuhHuh BitCoin is Fail?

http://images.onbux.com/banner.gif
I then use the money to buy BitCoins. You can too!
S3052
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October 18, 2011, 04:55:22 PM
 #1415

The analysis is referring to the technical condition of BTCUSD only. all technical patterns point downwards.

We will alert subscribers once we see a short, mid or longterm trend change

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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Are-you-a-wizard?
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October 18, 2011, 08:16:25 PM
 #1416

you are right, all trends are down now

Holy shit guys, for the first time in the history of Bitcoin S3052 is saying BTC is loosing value, this can only mean one thing....it's going up....

BUY BUY BUY!
slush
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October 18, 2011, 08:26:29 PM
 #1417

Holy shit guys, for the first time in the history of Bitcoin S3052 is saying BTC is loosing value, this can only mean one thing....it's going up....
BUY BUY BUY!

+1 :-D

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October 18, 2011, 08:31:04 PM
 #1418

you are right, all trends are down now

Holy shit guys, for the first time in the history of Bitcoin S3052 is saying BTC is loosing value, this can only mean one thing....it's going up....

BUY BUY BUY!

do your research.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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molecular
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October 18, 2011, 08:32:48 PM
 #1419

The analysis is referring to the technical condition of BTCUSD only. all technical patterns point downwards.

We will alert subscribers once we see a short, mid or longterm trend change


Translation: I'm in the process of buying, subscribers will buy soon, when we're all done, you guys can start a rally.

Smiley

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nmat
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October 18, 2011, 09:00:20 PM
 #1420

you are right, all trends are down now

Holy shit guys, for the first time in the history of Bitcoin S3052 is saying BTC is loosing value, this can only mean one thing....it's going up....

BUY BUY BUY!

He predicted a lot of downtrends, but yes, the longterm was always up.
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