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Question: Bitcoin Forecast: What do you expect BTC/USD prices to do in the next 4 weeks?
Up
Down
Same as now
I don't know

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?  (Read 503871 times)
Technomage
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October 20, 2011, 03:08:54 PM
 #1441

And if there is not another low soon, chances increase that a big bounce up happens soon , forcing short sellers to cover quickly.
I agree with this 100%. There have already been two attempts at breaking $2 and both times it bounced off and didn't break.

I'm still on the fence here but if there is a third attempt and another bounce, it might just spark a much bigger bounce because the support at $2 can be said to be very strong at that point.

This is definitely interesting, if $2 support is that strong we might not see a new low at least in the short term. But for any longer term change I'm waiting for a low that stays as the low for at least a month.

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nmat
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October 20, 2011, 03:23:26 PM
 #1442

I'm still on the fence here but if there is a third attempt and another bounce, it might just spark a much bigger bounce because the support at $2 can be said to be very strong at that point.

This is definitely interesting, if $2 support is that strong we might not see a new low at least in the short term. But for any longer term change I'm waiting for a low that stays as the low for at least a month.

I also agree with this and I would love to have a stable price for one month  Cool
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October 20, 2011, 03:36:54 PM
 #1443

correct. 2$ is very strong as support and may spark a reversal.

but on the other hand, I would not bank on stable prices. This ain't gonna happen. if a bounce occurs it will be massive and easily make 50-100% upside progress within hours.

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October 20, 2011, 06:40:39 PM
 #1444

correct. 2$ is very strong as support and may spark a reversal.

but on the other hand, I would not bank on stable prices. This ain't gonna happen. if a bounce occurs it will be massive and easily make 50-100% upside progress within hours.


If we can just get enough people to cause that spark for the rest of us then it would be perfect. I guess I'm too chicken to buy bitcoin myself right now because I definitely don't wanna be the guy to catch the falling knife right now after that scary drop down.

If enough people buy bitcoins to strongly rally past $3.5 or something, I may consider buying back in. The wall doesn't give me any piece of mind since the same 50k bitcoin wall at $6 and $4.8 went down like nothing when it was time. $2.2-2.3 seems like it's the new $4.8 and even if it bounces now, it won't be more than a day or two long until it's right back down again.

But as long as someone else buys enough bitcoins to get this going then I think everyone will be happy about the reversal. People can finally be bullish and happy again.
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October 20, 2011, 06:48:59 PM
 #1445

correct. 2$ is very strong as support and may spark a reversal.

but on the other hand, I would not bank on stable prices. This ain't gonna happen. if a bounce occurs it will be massive and easily make 50-100% upside progress within hours.


If we can just get enough people to cause that spark for the rest of us then it would be perfect. I guess I'm too chicken to buy bitcoin myself right now. Because I definitely don't wanna be the guy to catch the falling knife right now after that scary drop down.

If enough people buy bitcoins to strongly rally past $3.5 or something, I may consider buying back in. The wall doesn't give me any piece of mind since the same 50k bitcoin wall at $6 and $4.8 went down like nothing when it was time. $2.2-2.3 semms like the the new $4.8 and even if it bounces now, it won't be more than a day or two long until it's right back down again.

But as long as someone else buys enough bitcoins to get this going then I think everyone will be happy about the reversal. People can finally be bullish and happy again.

lol, love the logic here - somebody else buy, and then I will.  If that's the reasonable thing for you to do, why shouldn't it be the reasonable thing for everyone else?  In which case, nobody will buy.
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October 20, 2011, 06:51:49 PM
 #1446

but on the other hand, I would not bank on stable prices. This ain't gonna happen. if a bounce occurs it will be massive and easily make 50-100% upside progress within hours.
With stability I'm more concerned about the price constantly going down significantly, week after week, month after month. That's a disaster for any currency. I'm fine with volatility but a constant downtrend needs to stop.

So I don't know what it's called, maybe bottom stabilization, but that is what Bitcoin needs before we can hope for a more permanent recovery. Even if there is a big bounce up now, a lot of people will be very caucious and very trigger happy to sell on any gains.

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October 20, 2011, 06:57:11 PM
 #1447

lol, love the logic here - somebody else buy, and then I will.  If that's the reasonable thing for you to do, why shouldn't it be the reasonable thing for everyone else?  In which case, nobody will buy.
It's actually quite logical. Someone with low buying power can't usually be a market maker, unless his move somehow triggers a significant threshold by massive luck. This is why for small players it doesn't really make sense to go head on if you're not sure about it.

It's obviously questionable for big players also and they usually take a bigger risk, but then again they actually have the buying strength to lead the way and give others the chance to follow.

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October 20, 2011, 07:49:34 PM
 #1448

lol, love the logic here - somebody else buy, and then I will.  If that's the reasonable thing for you to do, why shouldn't it be the reasonable thing for everyone else?  In which case, nobody will buy.
It's actually quite logical. Someone with low buying power can't usually be a market maker, unless his move somehow triggers a significant threshold by massive luck. This is why for small players it doesn't really make sense to go head on if you're not sure about it.
This logic may validate crotchety old Austrian economists who require a prior commodity in the definition of a money (discuss computational credit). Goes for fiat paper and particularly for a bunch of crypto-enthusiasts like us. At some price small players will buy gold for their girlfriends regardless of the market makers.

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October 20, 2011, 08:24:03 PM
 #1449

but on the other hand, I would not bank on stable prices. This ain't gonna happen. if a bounce occurs it will be massive and easily make 50-100% upside progress within hours.
With stability I'm more concerned about the price constantly going down significantly, week after week, month after month. That's a disaster for any currency. I'm fine with volatility but a constant downtrend needs to stop.

Haven't you just described all fiat currencies, or at the very least, the dollar?
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October 22, 2011, 06:10:05 AM
 #1450

as we can see, you should just do the OPPOSITE of what S3052 says

when he says BTC will recover it hits a new low, when it says it's in a bear market it recovers

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October 22, 2011, 06:19:18 AM
 #1451

as we can see, you should just do the OPPOSITE of what S3052 says

when he says BTC will recover it hits a new low, when it says it's in a bear market it recovers

Actually he informed in his subscriptions about the possibility of a recovery, at least short-term. And he was bullish before the lower low, but gave it only 60% chances to rally.

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October 22, 2011, 07:00:13 AM
 #1452

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html

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October 25, 2011, 04:54:02 PM
 #1453

It is at $3, what now?

hold. the recent consolidation did not form a trend-canal, therefore i consider price will stay between 2.4 - 3.1 unless a channel border is broken (as happened recently with this very beautiful rally-channel at the stagnation yesterday (24.10.2011) at the price of 3.2 (--> uptrend channel was broken, resulted in a downtrend)

my suggestion: hold, try to profit from the crass volatility happening at the market at the moment.
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October 25, 2011, 04:58:16 PM
 #1454

i think we're going higher based upon the number of investors logged in at mtgox (double normal), the volatile up spikes occurring more frequently, the reappearance of the bid wall, my sense that alot of USD were wired to mtgox at the end of last week, and whats occurring in the general economy via the USD fall resuming, the UST selloff, and the overall RISK ON sentiment.
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October 25, 2011, 05:05:44 PM
 #1455

number of investors logged in at mtgox (double normal)
Source?

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October 25, 2011, 05:10:27 PM
 #1456

number of investors logged in at mtgox (double normal)
Source?

my general sense by monitoring the users logged in on mtgoxlive which usually is around 400
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October 26, 2011, 02:37:42 AM
 #1457

number of investors logged in at mtgox (double normal)
Source?

my general sense by monitoring the users logged in on mtgoxlive which usually is around 400
Just about 1200 now.
Last time I saw it at 1200 we went from ~5 to 7 in a few hours.  Grin

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October 26, 2011, 02:39:51 AM
 #1458

Just about 1200 now.
Last time I saw it at 1200 we went from ~5 to 7 in a few hours.  Grin

That can be related to the thread in the main board where they announce support for 17 new currencies.
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October 26, 2011, 03:21:17 AM
 #1459

Just about 1200 now.
Last time I saw it at 1200 we went from ~5 to 7 in a few hours.  Grin

That can be related to the thread in the main board where they announce support for 17 new currencies.

But, that was weeks ago wasn't it? Plus, with the frozen accounts in some of those currencies...

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October 26, 2011, 03:36:23 AM
 #1460

But, that was weeks ago wasn't it? Plus, with the frozen accounts in some of those currencies...

I am talking about new currencies on MtGox Live and not on MtGox itself. Here is Euro for example: http://mtgoxlive.com/orders?currency=EUR
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