Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[disclaimer201]

short term analysis issued: Volatility.

hmm. still hasn't kicked in, has it?

Here is one little analysis trying to address your question.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/20111119/bitcoin-technical-analysis-1030059/page4/

BitcoinAnalyst said about an hour ago
The bitcoin price volatility has been at historic lows recently.
Over the past 10 days, this has started to change: Since May 6, volatility is on the rise and very likely will rise more in the next weeks.

this doesn't explain much, but you got me interested.

The interwebs tell me:

In finance, volatility is a measure for variation of price of a financial instrument over time.

I don't see the price jump around (vary) more than usual in recent times (since may 6th).

Can you explain how you measure volatility? Is there an indicator on bitcoincharts that shows volatility?

There are many ways to look at volatility. Two of them are:
* Bollinger bands (this one and the one below are available on bitcoincharts). You also see in this case that the bands are a bit wider than at the very narrow range on May 10

* Chaikin's Volatility: "Chaikin's Volatility indicator measures the volatility of a security. High values indicate that prices are changing a large amount during the day. Low values indicate that prices are staying relatively constant. Note that both trending and level prices can have high or low volatility." http://www.tradingsolutions.com/functions/ChaikinsVolatility.html

still having a hard time understanding, especially potential implications.

everything from 5.10 down to 4.80 has been cleared on may 10th, naturally there is less friction on the way back up ("ease of movement" == "not much friction"). What are the implications of high volatility (in the past)?

Volatility is something that is only one of many possible indicators. I only use it with care and again, only in conjunction with many other tools.
If volatility is EXTREMELY LOW (like currently), it just says that very likely there will be some explosive price action afterward. But low volatility can persist for quite a while. Nevertheless, it almost never fails to anticipate very sharp movements. But patience is warranted until then.

As one example, look at AAPL

From Oct 2008 to Apr 2009 is trading at historically low volatility (as expressed through the bollinger bands which narrowed to a tight range in Apr 2009). And then look what happened afterwards. Now look at the past months in bitcoins..

This analogy is far-fetched though since you are comparing AAPLes and oranges. Assuming a stock will act like Bitcoin is questionable.

[S3052]

short term analysis issued: Volatility.

hmm. still hasn't kicked in, has it?

Here is one little analysis trying to address your question.

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/forum.html#/20111119/bitcoin-technical-analysis-1030059/page4/

BitcoinAnalyst said about an hour ago
The bitcoin price volatility has been at historic lows recently.
Over the past 10 days, this has started to change: Since May 6, volatility is on the rise and very likely will rise more in the next weeks.

this doesn't explain much, but you got me interested.

The interwebs tell me:

In finance, volatility is a measure for variation of price of a financial instrument over time.

I don't see the price jump around (vary) more than usual in recent times (since may 6th).

Can you explain how you measure volatility? Is there an indicator on bitcoincharts that shows volatility?

There are many ways to look at volatility. Two of them are:
* Bollinger bands (this one and the one below are available on bitcoincharts). You also see in this case that the bands are a bit wider than at the very narrow range on May 10

* Chaikin's Volatility: "Chaikin's Volatility indicator measures the volatility of a security. High values indicate that prices are changing a large amount during the day. Low values indicate that prices are staying relatively constant. Note that both trending and level prices can have high or low volatility." http://www.tradingsolutions.com/functions/ChaikinsVolatility.html

still having a hard time understanding, especially potential implications.

everything from 5.10 down to 4.80 has been cleared on may 10th, naturally there is less friction on the way back up ("ease of movement" == "not much friction"). What are the implications of high volatility (in the past)?

Volatility is something that is only one of many possible indicators. I only use it with care and again, only in conjunction with many other tools.
If volatility is EXTREMELY LOW (like currently), it just says that very likely there will be some explosive price action afterward. But low volatility can persist for quite a while. Nevertheless, it almost never fails to anticipate very sharp movements. But patience is warranted until then.

As one example, look at AAPL

From Oct 2008 to Apr 2009 is trading at historically low volatility (as expressed through the bollinger bands which narrowed to a tight range in Apr 2009). And then look what happened afterwards. Now look at the past months in bitcoins..

This analogy is far-fetched though since you are comparing AAPLes and oranges. Assuming a stock will act like Bitcoin is questionable.

Biitcoins are traded broadly enough that the principles of technical analysis apply as well as for stocks, induced, currencies, precious metals and other commodities.

[ArticMine]

...

This analogy is far-fetched though since you are comparing AAPLes and oranges. Assuming a stock will act like Bitcoin is questionable.

Actually what can happen here is that once the low volatility period is over the price movement in the oranges can be a lot sharper than price movement in the apples.

[S3052]

...

This analogy is far-fetched though since you are comparing AAPLes and oranges. Assuming a stock will act like Bitcoin is questionable.

Actually what can happen here is that once the low volatility period is over the price movement in the oranges can be a lot sharper than price movement in the apples.

Smile....

This is spot on: bitcoin logos are often indeed orange.

[S3052]

Have you noticed that prices have spiked a couple of times above 5.20$ but without the needed volume to actually allow for that ?
it seems that there is something strange going on on mtgox .
I wonder if there is some price fixing / fooling going on on purpose. This could be even related to bitcoinica.
Does anyone know if bitcoinica is currently still trading on mtgox and is this outside of the normal order book.
I was not aware that there are still dark orders posible.

[bitcoinBull]

Have you noticed that prices have spiked a couple of times above 5.20$ but without the needed volume to actually allow for that ?
it seems that there is something strange going on on mtgox .
I wonder if there is some price fixing / fooling going on on purpose. This could be even related to bitcoinica.
Does anyone know if bitcoinica is currently still trading on mtgox and is this outside of the normal order book.
I was not aware that there are still dark orders posible.

order-book engine glitches. Same as the BATS IPO, the Nasdaq quote issues the Friday of the FaceBook IPO, and of course the 2010 "flash crash".

[molecular]

This analogy is far-fetched though since you are comparing AAPLes and oranges carrots. Assuming a stock will act like Bitcoin is questionable.

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

I already posted this in another thread.
But I think it fits better here.
What do you think about this mtgox chart from today?

Does it actually means anything to the price that there less buy orders then sell orders?

[molecular]

Have you noticed that prices have spiked a couple of times above 5.20$ but without the needed volume to actually allow for that ?
it seems that there is something strange going on on mtgox .
I wonder if there is some price fixing / fooling going on on purpose. This could be even related to bitcoinica.
Does anyone know if bitcoinica is currently still trading on mtgox and is this outside of the normal order book.
I was not aware that there are still dark orders posible.

Some sh.t is up at gox, yes, but I wouldn't panic. An order of mine at 5.168 wasn't filled when it spiked to 5.18.

I was told in #mtgox that trades had been cancelled (compare bitcoincharts.com to charts on mtgox.com itself to see difference)

I'm not suspecting it to be bitcoinica-related in any way. Afaik there is no dark pool no more on gox. How did you come up with this theory of bitcoinica trading outside the orderbook? Bitcoinica bot has surely stopped trading anyhow.

[S3052]

Have you noticed that prices have spiked a couple of times above 5.20$ but without the needed volume to actually allow for that ?
it seems that there is something strange going on on mtgox .
I wonder if there is some price fixing / fooling going on on purpose. This could be even related to bitcoinica.
Does anyone know if bitcoinica is currently still trading on mtgox and is this outside of the normal order book.
I was not aware that there are still dark orders posible.

Some sh.t is up at gox, yes, but I wouldn't panic. An order of mine at 5.168 wasn't filled when it spiked to 5.18.

I was told in #mtgox that trades had been cancelled (compare bitcoincharts.com to charts on mtgox.com itself to see difference)

I'm not suspecting it to be bitcoinica-related in any way. Afaik there is no dark pool no more on gox. How did you come up with this theory of bitcoinica trading outside the orderbook? Bitcoinica bot has surely stopped trading anyhow.

thanks for shedding light on this on the separate thread.
Even if this is not caused by bitcoinica this needs to be fixed to avoid more damage to the bitcoin economy and public perception.

More professionalism is needed for ALL exchanges, not only bitcoinica, but also MtGOX

[S3052]

Continuing the good discussion here, and not on the bitcoinica thread:

I also said this can take long, but its not a question of IF only WHEN

I like your technical analysis. But, couldn't this be said about anything?  It's not IF the world will end, it's WHEN.

Yes, this is right. But I can narrow the time scale: We will likely see more volatility in the next 10 trading days that will show >= 10% move(s)

[/color]

[disclaimer201]

Continuing the good discussion here, and not on the bitcoinica thread:

I also said this can take long, but its not a question of IF only WHEN

I like your technical analysis. But, couldn't this be said about anything?  It's not IF the world will end, it's WHEN.

Yes, this is right. But I can narrow the time scale: We will likely see more volatility in the next 10 trading days that will show >= 10% move(s)

[/color]

...up or down? ;-) Can't really afford 5 BTC per month unless I get my 101 back from this formerly beloved trading platform, but even then 5 BTC can be a week's mining income for me - a little much to pay 1/4th income for technical analysis updates.

[bulanula]

I already posted this in another thread.
But I think it fits better here.
What do you think about this mtgox chart from today?

Does it actually means anything to the price that there less buy orders then sell orders?

Strap on your seatbelt son, we rally !

Bitcoinica need to buy 18K BTC ... reward drop coming too ! Good days for my stash !

[S3052]

The new bitcoin weekly report is out to subscribers. "the calm before the storm"

End of month is nearing. If anyone is interested in a subscription, just PM me.

[molecular]

The new bitcoin weekly report is out to subscribers. "the calm before the storm"

End of month is nearing. If anyone is interested in a subscription, just PM me.

If you wear the correct goggles (intersangoGBP in this case), there is no calm:



fx markets in turmoil. If USDX (measures USD against other fiat) reverses (as it might've just started to do a couple of hours ago) and heads back down, bitcoin could go up consequently?

[Crypt_Current]

The new bitcoin weekly report is out to subscribers. "the calm before the storm"

End of month is nearing. If anyone is interested in a subscription, just PM me.

If you wear the correct goggles (intersangoGBP in this case), there is no calm:



fx markets in turmoil. If USDX (measures USD against other fiat) reverses (as it might've just started to do a couple of hours ago) and heads back down, bitcoin could go up consequently?

Thanks for pointing out the movement in IntersangoGBP -- I take this to mean those Bitcoinica goons are actually going to make good by their customers...

[molecular]

The new bitcoin weekly report is out to subscribers. "the calm before the storm"

End of month is nearing. If anyone is interested in a subscription, just PM me.

If you wear the correct goggles (intersangoGBP in this case), there is no calm:



fx markets in turmoil. If USDX (measures USD against other fiat) reverses (as it might've just started to do a couple of hours ago) and heads back down, bitcoin could go up consequently?

Thanks for pointing out the movement in IntersangoGBP -- I take this to mean those Bitcoinica goons are actually going to make good by their customers...

well, I had the same suspicion... For whatever reason whoever is buying there, I'm now the proud (hopefully temporary) owner of some GBP

[realnowhereman]

Ha; it must be nice to be able to avoid fees because you own the exchange.

[bulanula]

Cash out now or Dec 2012 after reward drop.

SO many decisions

[S3052]

Cash out now or Dec 2012 after reward drop.

SO many decisions

The reward drop is already priced in as it is already public knowledge.