Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[kneim]

There is a strict anticyclic way for never loosing money with bitcoins (and other assets) for the long time, under the following conditions:
1) You believe in BTC as a real value (similar like gold)
2) You do not expect to make quick money

Follow strictly an easy rule, to invest a fix amount of USD for every cent the BTC value moves: for example, invest 1 USD for 1 cent that the BTC moves: I start from 5.00 USD/BTC (so I have a maximum of 500 USD to invest, if the BTC drops to 0.00):

USD/BTC
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50 buy BTC for 50 USD, create an ask at 5.00 USD/BTC then
5.00 do not trade this, it is the fair value, and so doesn't matter
5.50 sell BTC for 50 USD, create a bid at 5.00 USD/BTC then
6.00
6.50
...

The method before is manipulation free, it benefits from manipulation of others. It stabilizes the currency ratio, it can be used with any amount of capital. It can (and should) be used with different REAL assets, like equity funds (or any that you real believe in), to distribute the risk in random variation.

There are two gaps, that can be adjusted as needed: The gap between ask and bid (1.00 USD here), and the step to subsequent bids or asks (0.50 USD here). You can make the gaps bigger (less trading, better timing) or smaller (better arbitrage, higher fee).
You have some more options here: If you have too less BTC, buy for 60 USD, and sell for 40 USD. And vice versa, if you need more USD. It's a bad idea, to trade huge amounts in a small period of time.

It works best against manipulating bangsters, but do not invest too much!!!
Most work is finding real assets, like gold (or BTC). There are some, but it's a hard job.
Trading is easy without greed.
Good look.

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[molecular]

There is a strict anticyclic way for never loosing money with bitcoins (and other assets) for the long time, under the following conditions:
1) You believe in BTC as a real value (similar like gold)
2) You do not expect to make quick money

Follow strictly an easy rule, to invest a fix amount of USD for every cent the BTC value moves: for example, invest 1 USD for 1 cent that the BTC moves: I start from 5.00 USD/BTC (so I have a maximum of 500 USD to invest, if the BTC drops to 0.00):

USD/BTC
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50 buy BTC for 50 USD, create an ask at 5.00 USD/BTC then
5.00 do not trade this, it is the fair value, and so doesn't matter
5.50 sell BTC for 50 USD, create a bid at 5.00 USD/BTC then
6.00
6.50
...

The method before is manipulation free, it benefits from manipulation of others. It stabilizes the currency ratio, it can be used with any amount of capital. It can (and should) be used with different REAL assets, like equity funds (or any that you real believe in), to distribute the risk in random variation.

There are two gaps, that can be adjusted as needed: The gap between ask and bid (1.00 USD here), and the step to subsequent bids or asks (0.50 USD here). You can make the gaps bigger (less trading, better timing) or smaller (better arbitrage, higher fee).
You have some more options here: If you have too less BTC, buy for 60 USD, and sell for 40 USD. And vice versa, if you need more USD. It's a bad idea, to trade huge amounts in a small period of time.

It works best against manipulating bangsters, but do not invest too much!!!
Most work is finding real assets, like gold (or BTC). There are some, but it's a hard job.
Trading is easy without greed.
Good look.

similar to this idea? (from this very thread on dec 14th 2011: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.msg650108#msg650108)

btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

<btc balance> * <exchange rate> = <usd balance>

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

[S3052]

As usual, last call for June 2012 subcriptions

[kneim]

similar to this idea? (from this very thread on dec 14th 2011: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.msg650108#msg650108)

btw: I've been experimenting with a trading bot idea in summer. Named it "equilibrium trading". It aims to make trades so that the following is true:

<btc balance> * <exchange rate> = <usd balance>

This should have a stabilizing effect while taking advantage of volatility of a certain frequency range (given by the treshold at which it will put orders), right?

Yes, that's the same strategy. Perhaps not the best, but simply working. Because BTC is rather stable last time, my focus is more on gold and silver now, values which are heavily dropping.

Indeed I'm rather enthusiastic for BTC, waiting for the greeks/spains/italiens/chinese to distribute in alternative real values, instead of bubbling fiat currencies. I think most of the world does not know about it. Hope technology of BTC will resist.

[S3052]

A short term update has just been issued to subscribers. Title: Riding the Elliott Waves

[Newar]

some guy on youtube said something along these lines: "I like technical analysis because I don't have to be right. It allows me to ignore emotions and make decisions based on numbers."

+1
Couldn't have said it better.

Unless of course the fundamentals change drastically.

I'll admit I'm new to BTC, but in forex when (for example) a National Bank brings out the big guns, TA simply just fails.

[RyNinDaCleM]

some guy on youtube said something along these lines: "I like technical analysis because I don't have to be right. It allows me to ignore emotions and make decisions based on numbers."

+1
Couldn't have said it better.

Unless of course the fundamentals change drastically.

I'll admit I'm new to BTC, but in forex when (for example) a National Bank brings out the big guns, TA simply just fails.

TA doesn't work all the time here either. The market is too small, and it's too easy for someone with the capital to break the charts in their favor.

[S3052]

some guy on youtube said something along these lines: "I like technical analysis because I don't have to be right. It allows me to ignore emotions and make decisions based on numbers."

+1
Couldn't have said it better.

Unless of course the fundamentals change drastically.

I'll admit I'm new to BTC, but in forex when (for example) a National Bank brings out the big guns, TA simply just fails.

TA doesn't work all the time here either. The market is too small, and it's too easy for someone with the capital to break the charts in their favor.

TA also works in these cases, because if you define support and resistances properly, you can (i) anticipate certain moves to a high probability and (ii) quickly jump on the train if it left the station, well before others can do. We have proven to be able to time this well since late 2010.

[Newar]

Just an example:

http://postimage.org/image/8os0ioq7b/

[S3052]

The weekly report has just been issued to subscribers.

Title for the Bitcoin Forecast: The path of least resistance is ...

Title for the new Stock Market Forecast: More to come ...

[kokjo]

The weekly report has just been issued to subscribers.

Title for the Bitcoin Forecast: The path of least resistance is ...

Title for the new Stock Market Forecast: More to come ...

public one soon, please?

[S3052]

Short term update mailed to subscribers. Title: THE CLEAR PATH

For new people interested, we offer a trial month for 3 BTC.
Mail to S3052@gmx.ch before June 16 for this offer.

[S3052]

runaway train..

[kokjo]

runaway train..

up up and away?

[adamstgBit]

runaway train..

up up and away?

runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends

[notme]

runaway train..

up up and away?

runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends

Or you get them up to 88 MPH and have 1.21 Jiggawatts running through your flux capacitor.

[kokjo]

runaway train..

up up and away?

runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends

it crashed last year.

[molecular]

runaway train..

up up and away?

runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends

make track go in circle?

[Crypt_Current]

runaway train..

up up and away?

runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends

make track go in circle?

centrifugal force man

[notme]

runaway train..

up up and away?

runaway train's tend to crash.
unless the track never ends

make track go in circle?

centrifugal force man

Make it a big circle: