Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[xstr8guy]

looking at thegenesisblock i did some math and things are looking grim..wanted to know what you guys think about it.

Given facts:
- With an initial mining date of October
- Difficulty ~140 mil (now 110 + 30% over the next week)
- 1 Jupiter @ 400 MH/s
- BTC@140$

Results. This scenario with an increase of 77% until march next year will not break even!
Considering that in October we will most likely see 40-50%/11day increase since KNC is shipping, November and December mark the months of newcomers such as (CoinTerra and HashFEst)
The likelihood that the difficulty will taper off until march 2014 is next to 0.

Maybe i`m not seeing all the sides of the cube, but it is not looking good.
With BTC @ 180$ will have profited ~400$

My advice... pay no attention to The Genesis Block.  ASFAIC, the calculations are busted.  At least that's what I tell myself so I can sleep at night. 

[DPoS]

If everyone who spent a dime on BFL never seen this thread it wouldn't be past 30 pages

[dwdoc]

Thought no chips were to go out until after the backlog was cleared.

...unless you offer champagne.

BFL has a financial incentive to ship chips with a balance due on delivery.

[the-skeptic]

if you don't mind me asking, how much do butterfly chips cost in bulk? And then how much is it going to cost to have them mounted to circuit boards and get all of the peripheral hardware and gear necessary to get them running?

[Henchman24]

Thought no chips were to go out until after the backlog was cleared.

...unless you offer champagne.

BFL has a financial incentive to ship chips with a balance due on delivery.

Exactly right.  I'm anxious to see what they do.

If they ship chips before clearing the backlog, I fear Josh may be set adrift in a rowboat and all his breadfruit plants thrown overboard.

[erk]

Thought no chips were to go out until after the backlog was cleared.

...unless you offer champagne.

BFL has a financial incentive to ship chips with a balance due on delivery.

Exactly right.  I'm anxious to see what they do.

If they ship chips before clearing the backlog, I fear Josh may be set adrift in a rowboat and all his breadfruit plants thrown overboard.

What has shipping chips got to do with clearing the backlog? Absolutely nothing, the production line is not involved.

[soy]

Thought no chips were to go out until after the backlog was cleared.

...unless you offer champagne.

BFL has a financial incentive to ship chips with a balance due on delivery.

Exactly right.  I'm anxious to see what they do.

If they ship chips before clearing the backlog, I fear Josh may be set adrift in a rowboat and all his breadfruit plants thrown overboard.

What has shipping chips got to do with clearing the backlog? Absolutely nothing, the production line is not involved.

Their posted position on taking ASIC orders was that they would not ship any bulk chips until the backlog was cleared. 

They said that they would not be selling chips that could compete with pre-orders so all pre-orders would first be shipped.  It is extremely unlikely their pre-order backlog will be shipped by 9/19 of this year. 

Perhaps they're setting the stage to renege on that at the same time signaling they have no intention of a cessation of shipping for some months as KnC has indicated would so as to protect KnC's customers. 

[DeathAndTaxes]

Would it surprise you if BFL changes the terms again?  It reminds me of this scene:

Lando: This was never part of our agreement.
Darth Vader: *pointing his index finger at Lando* I have altered the deal pray I do not alter it any further.

There is on major difference between BFL chips and BFL rigs.  BFL doesn't have all the money for the chips.  It was only 50% upfront.  If they ship too late it is possible customers will simply not pay.   There is a point where for a customer it is better to accept a partial loss then pay more and lose triple.  If the chips ship before the rigs what are the rig customers going to do?  Not pay?  Demand a refund?

[timmmers]

I find it hard to believe that people still quote josh except in mirth...even his name means a joke.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/josh 

[carlotech]

there is to many out of topic on this thread...

[dwdoc]

if you don't mind me asking, how much do butterfly chips cost in bulk? And then how much is it going to cost to have them mounted to circuit boards and get all of the peripheral hardware and gear necessary to get them running?

Chips are $50 apiece if purchased with chip credits.  Looks like 8 chip assembled boards including cost of chips will run between $650 and $750 each.  So ~$700 for 32GH/s.

[Phoenix1969]

if you don't mind me asking, how much do butterfly chips cost in bulk? And then how much is it going to cost to have them mounted to circuit boards and get all of the peripheral hardware and gear necessary to get them running?

Chips are $50 apiece if purchased with chip credits.  Looks like 8 chip assembled boards including cost of chips will run between $650 and $750 each.  So ~$700 for 32GH/s.

I feel for you, maybe you can sell them on EBay as "Fabulous" Jewelery

[plasmoske]

Am I in the right thread here? ButterflyLabs discussion now?

[the-skeptic]

if you don't mind me asking, how much do butterfly chips cost in bulk? And then how much is it going to cost to have them mounted to circuit boards and get all of the peripheral hardware and gear necessary to get them running?

Chips are $50 apiece if purchased with chip credits.  Looks like 8 chip assembled boards including cost of chips will run between $650 and $750 each.  So ~$700 for 32GH/s.

I feel for you, maybe you can sell them on EBay as "Fabulous" Jewelery

The price isn't that bad. Everyone has been screwed equally by the surge of power coming online in the past 3 months. Those of us with KNC orders shipping in the first batch will have a chance to make some decent money if we re-invest in more hashing power early on. That extra power from the BFL chips will help enormously, and the KNC machines hashing at 500/250/125 Ghs (based on comments from Sam Cole) doesn't hurt either.

Now that KNC takes credit cards directly, I plan to order a November Jupiter as soon as I get my October Jupiter and Saturn. If difficulty is under 175 million when my October miners starting hashing, they should easily pay off my credit card bill for the November miner. If Cointerra can deliver 2Ghs (err, Ths, I mean) for $6000 in January and KNC is on vacation, that will be my next move.

[demonmaestro]

That actually sounds like a good idea.

 

[vesperwillow]

My advice... pay no attention to The Genesis Block.  ASFAIC, the calculations are busted.  At least that's what I tell myself so I can sleep at night. 

TGB has been fairly close with the predictions. My own predictions (in another thread) are also spot on, actually within a few hundred thousand of actual difficulty. Call it luck I suppose. According to my model, we're a few footsteps away from a near vertical rise in hashrate which will last for a short while (not indefinitely). There'll be a slight tapering, a downslope, but it'll never go back down. It'll sinewive out.

For getting sleep at night, I can understand not wanting to face that.

[frankenmint]

[bubbly enthusiasm] Have the majority of followers on this thread simply transitioned over the KNC's forums?  I liked those pics of the data-center they're building.  Ermm so if sam and cole are building a datacenter....who's overseeing the automation which is suppossed to be continuously mfg units? Also, if you guys just choose to ignore this weekend, it will be like t-15 days till OCT!!!!!!!!  And if you really want to just stop thinking btcminer mentality at least for those dreaded following weeks to get your hardware....buy yourself a consolation prize of Grand theft Auto V.  ITS COMMING NEXT WED!!!!! [/bubbly enthusiasm]

[Anenome5]

For ideal efficiency you want no more than ~60% load on the PSU. So people are getting a 1,000 watt PSU to achieve that. 850w is adequate but not targeted towards efficiency, on a device that will be operating full bore, 24/7, it makes sense.

Also you could get two 500w PSUs and feed one to each side, but I wonder if you face an additional risk if one board is powered on before the others? Might that cause problems?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg3124339#msg3124339

Aha, thanks for the mythbusting.

[markm]

Darn, I just logged into my account to tell it about my p2pool instance that does my merged mining, in case they built my miner while I wasn't looking and wanted to set it up to mine for me on my pool.

They don't let you tell them the hostname or IP anddress and port number of your pool!

They don't even list the only reasonably merged mining pool, bitparking's mmpool, at all!

All they list are a bunch of ancient old-school pools that I long ago gave up even looking at due to as far as I know the best I could hope for from any of them would be, maybe, if I am lucky, that they might merge namecoins and devcoins (eligius, for example, does it merge both of those or only namecoins? I thought maybe luke had said once upon a time he might or would or does include devcoins?)

This is crap, its like they want me to pick between a bunch of out of date useless pools that haven't heard of merged mining or if they have then don't actually bother to do it!

Yet they have a poll asking if they should do merged mining on their own pool.

Is this just a scam to convince us all to choose their pool in the faint hope that maybe we will win the pool and their pool will do merged mining, maybe even better than mmpool - that is, merging more types of coin than mmpool merges?

I expected to simply input the hostname or IP of my p2pool instance and a username or bitcoin address for it and the not even used password and I'd be done. WTF is that pathetic list of out of date pools about, where did they even find that list? How come bitparking's mmpool isn't on it?

better still why doesn't it just ask the damn hostname and IP so people can use their own instance of p2pool thus merge any damn coin they want to regardless of whether any stupid pool-operators choose that particular combination of coins to merge? Even mmpool only merges 5 of the 7 secondary chain coins and that is not even counting the fact bytecoin is due to be merge-able any moment now, maybe freicoin too.

-MarkM-

[superfluouso]

Unless I'm missing something it sure looks like bitminter allows merged mining for namecoins...