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Author Topic: Launching the Antminer L3+, World's Most Powerful and Efficient Litecoin Miner  (Read 284228 times)
BenRickert
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September 07, 2017, 01:29:18 PM
 #2401

The global supply for this batch seems so small. If you want to buy l3+, PM me.
I wouldn't even pay $2,280.00 for a unit that will not even ship until after many 1000's of others have shipped and slammed the network. If you want to sell it for what it's worth by December I'll buy it. That would be $1,272.00. PM me. People that are flocking to buy these for $2,280.00 are smoking crack.

I don't understand where your overly dramatic difficulty predictions come from. Do you just say that to try and get a cheaper price on the miners? There's no way anyone is selling you their L3+ for $2280, let alone your ludicrous asking price of $1272.

Look at the difficulty since the end of August when people started receiving and firing up their miners from the August/September batch that people had to pre-order back in June - which was a huge batch iirc. The difficulty didn't even double! There has only been one large batch since then, and two smaller ones. Worst - extremely worst - case scenario is that the difficult doubles from where it's at now, in which case mining with the L3+ would still be insanely profitable relative to any traditional sense of investing. Us miners are spoiled with insane ROI numbers. We shoot for 30% ROI per month when any other form of investment doesn't even see 30% per year.


LTC difficulty is now at 633k. I know that you know that previous to this batch, 3 days ago, Bitmain sold 18k units. All you need to do is look at BTC and you can easily extrapolate the future scenario for Alt Coin mining. Sometime in the near future, you will make $300.00 p/machine per month. Just look at the types of people posting in here. They don't have the slightest clue what they are doing. I spent 30 years trading and constructing institutional hedge strategies in the financial markets for JP Morgan, Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse etc etc. I have a little experience with this type of herd mentality. I was paid very large amounts of money to extract risk from these firm's portfolios. This is like any other business. When all the sheep come pouring in for the "easy money" it portends at least corrective changes. $1,272.00 ludicrous?Huh That's what I paid for the batch I'm currently running. Not "ludicrous" at all. Last month I skipped the D3 batch that went for $2,595.00 and bought into the very next one for $1,600.00. It's all about cost. It's all about value and it's all about being rational. Paying $2,280.00 for the L3+ in the current dynamic, is none of those things.

Lastly, this is a high risk business. There is MUCH more in play here than just those ROI calculators everyone relies so heavily on. In trading,  we have a term called "edge". If you have the "edge", you can survive. If you give up the "edge" you are just meat for those that have it. Buying L3+ for $2,280.00 is absolutely giving up ANY edge. Just trying to help. Take it for what it's worth.

You only live once....if you do it right, once is enough.

 Excellent FAQ for Lightning Network https://medium.com/@AudunGulbrands1/lightning-faq-67bd2b957d70
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cashen
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September 07, 2017, 01:29:42 PM
 #2402

Is it possible to run 4 x L3+ in the same room using 4 "different" outlets?

Yes.

As long as the outlets are on different circuits which they are most likely not.

So, No. don't do it.

4 units pull ~27 Amps @ 120v.
philstringer12
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September 07, 2017, 01:30:01 PM
 #2403

The power cord for APW3++ is not included
BenRickert
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September 07, 2017, 01:31:04 PM
 #2404

Do the L3+ have the ability for manual fan and frequency control ?
Yes

You only live once....if you do it right, once is enough.

 Excellent FAQ for Lightning Network https://medium.com/@AudunGulbrands1/lightning-faq-67bd2b957d70
usao
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September 07, 2017, 01:31:47 PM
 #2405

Is it possible to run 4 x L3+ in the same room using 4 "different" outlets?
The question is not about outlets, but about circuits.
Depending on where you live in the world, you have different power capabilities per circuit.
In the US, a typical circuit is 110V @ 15A, or 1.6KW. Given that a single L3+ is rated at over 800W at the wall, trying to run 2 rigs on a single circuit is not recommended.
First, determine what your wattage is at the outlet in question.
Second, determine if that wattage is shared with anything else on the same circuit (a single circuit typically contains multiple outlets).
Divide the available wattage available on that circuit by the rated wall wattage and round down.
That will tell you how many rigs you can run on the circuit.
usao
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September 07, 2017, 01:33:00 PM
 #2406

Do the L3+ have the ability for manual fan and frequency control ?
Yes
While on this topic, is it published anywhere what the frequency vs. wattage is?
BenRickert
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September 07, 2017, 01:36:04 PM
 #2407

Is it possible to overclock these miners ?
Yes, it will void your warranty.

You only live once....if you do it right, once is enough.

 Excellent FAQ for Lightning Network https://medium.com/@AudunGulbrands1/lightning-faq-67bd2b957d70
BenRickert
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September 07, 2017, 01:38:32 PM
 #2408

Do the L3+ have the ability for manual fan and frequency control ?
Yes
While on this topic, is it published anywhere what the frequency vs. wattage is?

I don't have that but I've seen posts from a few that are overclocking. If I remember the ratio seems to be around 5/1?? Don't quote me. Shooting from the hip. Obviously that would not be a linear change

You only live once....if you do it right, once is enough.

 Excellent FAQ for Lightning Network https://medium.com/@AudunGulbrands1/lightning-faq-67bd2b957d70
BenRickert
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September 07, 2017, 01:40:48 PM
 #2409

Is it possible to run 4 x L3+ in the same room using 4 "different" outlets?
The question is not about outlets, but about circuits.
Depending on where you live in the world, you have different power capabilities per circuit.
In the US, a typical circuit is 110V @ 15A, or 1.6KW. Given that a single L3+ is rated at over 800W at the wall, trying to run 2 rigs on a single circuit is not recommended.
First, determine what your wattage is at the outlet in question.
Second, determine if that wattage is shared with anything else on the same circuit (a single circuit typically contains multiple outlets).
Divide the available wattage available on that circuit by the rated wall wattage and round down.
That will tell you how many rigs you can run on the circuit.
I'm actually getting nervous now that some people are going to die in a house fire as a result of messing with these servers without knowledge.......I hope they read your post and take it seriously.

You only live once....if you do it right, once is enough.

 Excellent FAQ for Lightning Network https://medium.com/@AudunGulbrands1/lightning-faq-67bd2b957d70
rosmo01
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September 07, 2017, 01:44:49 PM
 #2410

One of my L3+ automatically reboots 1-5 times a day.

It appears that only happens when you are on coin-switching pools like niceheash, etc., as when I have them on a litecoin-only pool they do not reboot.
usao
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September 07, 2017, 01:53:10 PM
 #2411

Is it possible to run 4 x L3+ in the same room using 4 "different" outlets?
The question is not about outlets, but about circuits.
Depending on where you live in the world, you have different power capabilities per circuit.
In the US, a typical circuit is 110V @ 15A, or 1.6KW. Given that a single L3+ is rated at over 800W at the wall, trying to run 2 rigs on a single circuit is not recommended.
First, determine what your wattage is at the outlet in question.
Second, determine if that wattage is shared with anything else on the same circuit (a single circuit typically contains multiple outlets).
Divide the available wattage available on that circuit by the rated wall wattage and round down.
That will tell you how many rigs you can run on the circuit.
I'm actually getting nervous now that some people are going to die in a house fire as a result of messing with these servers without knowledge.......I hope they read your post and take it seriously.
The way things are designed, the breaker should simply trip long before any issue with fire arises.
If you overload a circuit it will get hot, but long before it get's too hot (for a fire to occur) the breaker should trip and cut power to the affected circuit.
It's one way to know if you have too many rigs on a circuit, if the breaker trips...
GMPoison
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September 07, 2017, 01:58:15 PM
 #2412

The global supply for this batch seems so small. If you want to buy l3+, PM me.
I wouldn't even pay $2,280.00 for a unit that will not even ship until after many 1000's of others have shipped and slammed the network. If you want to sell it for what it's worth by December I'll buy it. That would be $1,272.00. PM me. People that are flocking to buy these for $2,280.00 are smoking crack.

I don't understand where your overly dramatic difficulty predictions come from. Do you just say that to try and get a cheaper price on the miners? There's no way anyone is selling you their L3+ for $2280, let alone your ludicrous asking price of $1272.

Look at the difficulty since the end of August when people started receiving and firing up their miners from the August/September batch that people had to pre-order back in June - which was a huge batch iirc. The difficulty didn't even double! There has only been one large batch since then, and two smaller ones. Worst - extremely worst - case scenario is that the difficult doubles from where it's at now, in which case mining with the L3+ would still be insanely profitable relative to any traditional sense of investing. Us miners are spoiled with insane ROI numbers. We shoot for 30% ROI per month when any other form of investment doesn't even see 30% per year.


LTC difficulty is now at 633k. I know that you know that previous to this batch, 3 days ago, Bitmain sold 18k units. All you need to do is look at BTC and you can easily extrapolate the future scenario for Alt Coin mining. Sometime in the near future, you will make $300.00 p/machine per month. Just look at the types of people posting in here. They don't have the slightest clue what they are doing. I spent 30 years trading and constructing institutional hedge strategies in the financial markets for JP Morgan, Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse etc etc. I have a little experience with this type of herd mentality. I was paid very large amounts of money to extract risk from these firm's portfolios. This is like any other business. When all the sheep come pouring in for the "easy money" it portends at least corrective changes. $1,272.00 ludicrous?Huh That's what I paid for the batch I'm currently running. Not "ludicrous" at all. Last month I skipped the D3 batch that went for $2,595.00 and bought into the very next one for $1,600.00. It's all about cost. It's all about value and it's all about being rational. Paying $2,280.00 for the L3+ in the current dynamic, is none of those things.

Lastly, this is a high risk business. There is MUCH more in play here than just those ROI calculators everyone relies so heavily on. In trading,  we have a term called "edge". If you have the "edge", you can survive. If you give up the "edge" you are just meat for those that have it. Buying L3+ for $2,280.00 is absolutely giving up ANY edge. Just trying to help. Take it for what it's worth.

Just help me understand, because for whatever reason I can't. You say you spent 30 years in the finance industry, but I don't understand how $300 profit/machine per month sometime in the near future is bad? $300 profit per month from a $2,280 investment is only just over a 7 month ROI, and that's your worst case scenario when you factor in the fact that you'll be able to get a lot of money back from selling your machines when you upgrade. $300 per month, worst case scenario. I don't at all understand how you would have to be smoking crack to invest in that! Especially if you believe in the future of cryptocurrency, who knows what the best case scenario could be! You come from the financial world, surely you know that a 7 month ROI in any traditional sense of investing is unheard of, no?

I got my October batch for $1,650 each which of course now looks like a good deal compared to the $2,280, but if I wouldn't have gotten my hands on that batch, I would have easily spent $2,280 per machine for this recent batch. Of course all of this is under the assumption that this is the highest risk business that you could probably ever invest in, but I think the "edge" that we have against all of the risk we're taking is what the future of cryptocurrency could be, and where it could go. Everyone is different, but I will gladly accept all of the risks that come with investing in mining for the potential profits. I appreciate your opinion, especially if you have all of that experience in finance, I just don't believe you would have to be smoking crack like you say to spend a few hundred more dollars to get in on this, which only equates to another few weeks of ROI, in the worst case scenario. I look forward to hearing more of what you think on the topic, I'm just not buying into the doomsday scenario is all!
usao
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September 07, 2017, 02:05:11 PM
 #2413

The global supply for this batch seems so small. If you want to buy l3+, PM me.
I wouldn't even pay $2,280.00 for a unit that will not even ship until after many 1000's of others have shipped and slammed the network. If you want to sell it for what it's worth by December I'll buy it. That would be $1,272.00. PM me. People that are flocking to buy these for $2,280.00 are smoking crack.

I don't understand where your overly dramatic difficulty predictions come from. Do you just say that to try and get a cheaper price on the miners? There's no way anyone is selling you their L3+ for $2280, let alone your ludicrous asking price of $1272.

Look at the difficulty since the end of August when people started receiving and firing up their miners from the August/September batch that people had to pre-order back in June - which was a huge batch iirc. The difficulty didn't even double! There has only been one large batch since then, and two smaller ones. Worst - extremely worst - case scenario is that the difficult doubles from where it's at now, in which case mining with the L3+ would still be insanely profitable relative to any traditional sense of investing. Us miners are spoiled with insane ROI numbers. We shoot for 30% ROI per month when any other form of investment doesn't even see 30% per year.


LTC difficulty is now at 633k. I know that you know that previous to this batch, 3 days ago, Bitmain sold 18k units. All you need to do is look at BTC and you can easily extrapolate the future scenario for Alt Coin mining. Sometime in the near future, you will make $300.00 p/machine per month. Just look at the types of people posting in here. They don't have the slightest clue what they are doing. I spent 30 years trading and constructing institutional hedge strategies in the financial markets for JP Morgan, Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse etc etc. I have a little experience with this type of herd mentality. I was paid very large amounts of money to extract risk from these firm's portfolios. This is like any other business. When all the sheep come pouring in for the "easy money" it portends at least corrective changes. $1,272.00 ludicrous?Huh That's what I paid for the batch I'm currently running. Not "ludicrous" at all. Last month I skipped the D3 batch that went for $2,595.00 and bought into the very next one for $1,600.00. It's all about cost. It's all about value and it's all about being rational. Paying $2,280.00 for the L3+ in the current dynamic, is none of those things.

Lastly, this is a high risk business. There is MUCH more in play here than just those ROI calculators everyone relies so heavily on. In trading,  we have a term called "edge". If you have the "edge", you can survive. If you give up the "edge" you are just meat for those that have it. Buying L3+ for $2,280.00 is absolutely giving up ANY edge. Just trying to help. Take it for what it's worth.

Just help me understand, because for whatever reason I can't. You say you spent 30 years in the finance industry, but I don't understand how $300 profit/machine per month sometime in the near future is bad? $300 profit per month from a $2,280 investment is only just over a 7 month ROI, and that's your worst case scenario when you factor in the fact that you'll be able to get a lot of money back from selling your machines when you upgrade. $300 per month, worst case scenario. I don't at all understand how you would have to be smoking crack to invest in that! Especially if you believe in the future of cryptocurrency, who knows what the best case scenario could be! You come from the financial world, surely you know that a 7 month ROI in any traditional sense of investing is unheard of, no?

I got my October batch for $1,650 each which of course now looks like a good deal compared to the $2,280, but if I wouldn't have gotten my hands on that batch, I would have easily spent $2,280 per machine for this recent batch. Of course all of this is under the assumption that this is the highest risk business that you could probably ever invest in, but I think the "edge" that we have against all of the risk we're taking is what the future of cryptocurrency could be, and where it could go. Everyone is different, but I will gladly accept all of the risks that come with investing in mining for the potential profits. I appreciate your opinion, especially if you have all of that experience in finance, I just don't believe you would have to be smoking crack like you say to spend a few hundred more dollars to get in on this, which only equates to another few weeks of ROI, in the worst case scenario. I look forward to hearing more of what you think on the topic, I'm just not buying into the doomsday scenario is all!

I think the issue is that ROI calculations depend on speculation of future difficulty (and hence earnings) over time.
While you may see $300/month right now, that could change tomorrow, or the next day, etc...
There is no way to predict exact ROI, only estimate it.
Most estimates I have seen include a percentage difficulty increase over time, as is done on the BitcoinWisdom site, but again that only applies to LTC and BTC, as they don't have other coin calculators.
Keep in mind also that the ROI is also dependent on future estimate of coin value, which (while typically climbing of late) can vary up or down.
This is the nature of RISK. It's cannot be accurately predicted, only estimated. Any decisions you make should be based on your assumption of RISK.
Heinerlutscher
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September 07, 2017, 02:11:28 PM
 #2414

anyone interested in a Bitmain account with 4 Antminer L3+?
PM me
Only Germany shipping!
GMPoison
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September 07, 2017, 02:15:49 PM
 #2415

The global supply for this batch seems so small. If you want to buy l3+, PM me.
I wouldn't even pay $2,280.00 for a unit that will not even ship until after many 1000's of others have shipped and slammed the network. If you want to sell it for what it's worth by December I'll buy it. That would be $1,272.00. PM me. People that are flocking to buy these for $2,280.00 are smoking crack.

I don't understand where your overly dramatic difficulty predictions come from. Do you just say that to try and get a cheaper price on the miners? There's no way anyone is selling you their L3+ for $2280, let alone your ludicrous asking price of $1272.

Look at the difficulty since the end of August when people started receiving and firing up their miners from the August/September batch that people had to pre-order back in June - which was a huge batch iirc. The difficulty didn't even double! There has only been one large batch since then, and two smaller ones. Worst - extremely worst - case scenario is that the difficult doubles from where it's at now, in which case mining with the L3+ would still be insanely profitable relative to any traditional sense of investing. Us miners are spoiled with insane ROI numbers. We shoot for 30% ROI per month when any other form of investment doesn't even see 30% per year.


LTC difficulty is now at 633k. I know that you know that previous to this batch, 3 days ago, Bitmain sold 18k units. All you need to do is look at BTC and you can easily extrapolate the future scenario for Alt Coin mining. Sometime in the near future, you will make $300.00 p/machine per month. Just look at the types of people posting in here. They don't have the slightest clue what they are doing. I spent 30 years trading and constructing institutional hedge strategies in the financial markets for JP Morgan, Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse etc etc. I have a little experience with this type of herd mentality. I was paid very large amounts of money to extract risk from these firm's portfolios. This is like any other business. When all the sheep come pouring in for the "easy money" it portends at least corrective changes. $1,272.00 ludicrous?Huh That's what I paid for the batch I'm currently running. Not "ludicrous" at all. Last month I skipped the D3 batch that went for $2,595.00 and bought into the very next one for $1,600.00. It's all about cost. It's all about value and it's all about being rational. Paying $2,280.00 for the L3+ in the current dynamic, is none of those things.

Lastly, this is a high risk business. There is MUCH more in play here than just those ROI calculators everyone relies so heavily on. In trading,  we have a term called "edge". If you have the "edge", you can survive. If you give up the "edge" you are just meat for those that have it. Buying L3+ for $2,280.00 is absolutely giving up ANY edge. Just trying to help. Take it for what it's worth.

Just help me understand, because for whatever reason I can't. You say you spent 30 years in the finance industry, but I don't understand how $300 profit/machine per month sometime in the near future is bad? $300 profit per month from a $2,280 investment is only just over a 7 month ROI, and that's your worst case scenario when you factor in the fact that you'll be able to get a lot of money back from selling your machines when you upgrade. $300 per month, worst case scenario. I don't at all understand how you would have to be smoking crack to invest in that! Especially if you believe in the future of cryptocurrency, who knows what the best case scenario could be! You come from the financial world, surely you know that a 7 month ROI in any traditional sense of investing is unheard of, no?

I got my October batch for $1,650 each which of course now looks like a good deal compared to the $2,280, but if I wouldn't have gotten my hands on that batch, I would have easily spent $2,280 per machine for this recent batch. Of course all of this is under the assumption that this is the highest risk business that you could probably ever invest in, but I think the "edge" that we have against all of the risk we're taking is what the future of cryptocurrency could be, and where it could go. Everyone is different, but I will gladly accept all of the risks that come with investing in mining for the potential profits. I appreciate your opinion, especially if you have all of that experience in finance, I just don't believe you would have to be smoking crack like you say to spend a few hundred more dollars to get in on this, which only equates to another few weeks of ROI, in the worst case scenario. I look forward to hearing more of what you think on the topic, I'm just not buying into the doomsday scenario is all!

I think the issue is that ROI calculations depend on speculation of future difficulty (and hence earnings) over time.
While you may see $300/month right now, that could change tomorrow, or the next day, etc...
There is no way to predict exact ROI, only estimate it.
Most estimates I have seen include a percentage difficulty increase over time, as is done on the BitcoinWisdom site, but again that only applies to LTC and BTC, as they don't have other coin calculators.
Keep in mind also that the ROI is also dependent on future estimate of coin value, which (while typically climbing of late) can vary up or down.
This is the nature of RISK. It's cannot be accurately predicted, only estimated. Any decisions you make should be based on your assumption of RISK.

That's true, but we're not seeing $300/mo right now. Right now, we're seeing over $800/mo. The difficulty could double and we'd still see more than $300/mo, and that worst case scenario is assuming the price of Bitcoin or Litecoin doesn't rise, which is unlikely. That worst case scenario also doesn't factor in the fact that you can sell your miners when you decide to upgrade for a decent amount of money. Like I said, I'm not buying into the doomsday scenario, I may be blind for say so, but it's just how I feel about crypto in general.

Of course like you say this is the nature of risk, and we cannot accurately predict what will happen 3 months, 6 months, or 12 months from now. How I see it though, I will gladly accept all the potential risks associated for all the potential profits associated.
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September 07, 2017, 02:21:25 PM
 #2416

The global supply for this batch seems so small. If you want to buy l3+, PM me.
I wouldn't even pay $2,280.00 for a unit that will not even ship until after many 1000's of others have shipped and slammed the network. If you want to sell it for what it's worth by December I'll buy it. That would be $1,272.00. PM me. People that are flocking to buy these for $2,280.00 are smoking crack.

I don't understand where your overly dramatic difficulty predictions come from. Do you just say that to try and get a cheaper price on the miners? There's no way anyone is selling you their L3+ for $2280, let alone your ludicrous asking price of $1272.

Look at the difficulty since the end of August when people started receiving and firing up their miners from the August/September batch that people had to pre-order back in June - which was a huge batch iirc. The difficulty didn't even double! There has only been one large batch since then, and two smaller ones. Worst - extremely worst - case scenario is that the difficult doubles from where it's at now, in which case mining with the L3+ would still be insanely profitable relative to any traditional sense of investing. Us miners are spoiled with insane ROI numbers. We shoot for 30% ROI per month when any other form of investment doesn't even see 30% per year.


LTC difficulty is now at 633k. I know that you know that previous to this batch, 3 days ago, Bitmain sold 18k units. All you need to do is look at BTC and you can easily extrapolate the future scenario for Alt Coin mining. Sometime in the near future, you will make $300.00 p/machine per month. Just look at the types of people posting in here. They don't have the slightest clue what they are doing. I spent 30 years trading and constructing institutional hedge strategies in the financial markets for JP Morgan, Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse etc etc. I have a little experience with this type of herd mentality. I was paid very large amounts of money to extract risk from these firm's portfolios. This is like any other business. When all the sheep come pouring in for the "easy money" it portends at least corrective changes. $1,272.00 ludicrous?Huh That's what I paid for the batch I'm currently running. Not "ludicrous" at all. Last month I skipped the D3 batch that went for $2,595.00 and bought into the very next one for $1,600.00. It's all about cost. It's all about value and it's all about being rational. Paying $2,280.00 for the L3+ in the current dynamic, is none of those things.

Lastly, this is a high risk business. There is MUCH more in play here than just those ROI calculators everyone relies so heavily on. In trading,  we have a term called "edge". If you have the "edge", you can survive. If you give up the "edge" you are just meat for those that have it. Buying L3+ for $2,280.00 is absolutely giving up ANY edge. Just trying to help. Take it for what it's worth.

Just help me understand, because for whatever reason I can't. You say you spent 30 years in the finance industry, but I don't understand how $300 profit/machine per month sometime in the near future is bad? $300 profit per month from a $2,280 investment is only just over a 7 month ROI, and that's your worst case scenario when you factor in the fact that you'll be able to get a lot of money back from selling your machines when you upgrade. $300 per month, worst case scenario. I don't at all understand how you would have to be smoking crack to invest in that! Especially if you believe in the future of cryptocurrency, who knows what the best case scenario could be! You come from the financial world, surely you know that a 7 month ROI in any traditional sense of investing is unheard of, no?

I got my October batch for $1,650 each which of course now looks like a good deal compared to the $2,280, but if I wouldn't have gotten my hands on that batch, I would have easily spent $2,280 per machine for this recent batch. Of course all of this is under the assumption that this is the highest risk business that you could probably ever invest in, but I think the "edge" that we have against all of the risk we're taking is what the future of cryptocurrency could be, and where it could go. Everyone is different, but I will gladly accept all of the risks that come with investing in mining for the potential profits. I appreciate your opinion, especially if you have all of that experience in finance, I just don't believe you would have to be smoking crack like you say to spend a few hundred more dollars to get in on this, which only equates to another few weeks of ROI, in the worst case scenario. I look forward to hearing more of what you think on the topic, I'm just not buying into the doomsday scenario is all!
Fair enough, I retract my "crack" comment. I failed to be clear. I don't find those returns "bad" either, relative to other vehicles. I am involved believe me, and have long range plans. From my perspective, there is no fair analogy with this space to other traditional "investments". The "ROI" comparisons can be rendered useless in a blink. All I'm trying to say is, be rational, be patient, keep your "edge" and don't get caught up in this frenzy. When people jam servers for hours on end to gobble up units at all time price highs, when the future outlook for those machines is at least the most negative we have seen it, I take that as a warning, For me, I feel that the future outlook in BTC Diff and profitability is more calculable than these new Scrypt and X11's. I'd much rather buy S9's at $1,100.00 and make $300.00 p/m than take a flyer at $2,280.00 for something that has untold future downside. Does that make sense? I'm not predicting doomsday. I'm in this for the long haul I hope. I'm just predicting that the weak hands and emotional money will more likely get shaken out in a downturn. It's a very regular occurrence over history.

You only live once....if you do it right, once is enough.

 Excellent FAQ for Lightning Network https://medium.com/@AudunGulbrands1/lightning-faq-67bd2b957d70
BenRickert
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September 07, 2017, 02:26:53 PM
 #2417

The global supply for this batch seems so small. If you want to buy l3+, PM me.
I wouldn't even pay $2,280.00 for a unit that will not even ship until after many 1000's of others have shipped and slammed the network. If you want to sell it for what it's worth by December I'll buy it. That would be $1,272.00. PM me. People that are flocking to buy these for $2,280.00 are smoking crack.

I don't understand where your overly dramatic difficulty predictions come from. Do you just say that to try and get a cheaper price on the miners? There's no way anyone is selling you their L3+ for $2280, let alone your ludicrous asking price of $1272.

Look at the difficulty since the end of August when people started receiving and firing up their miners from the August/September batch that people had to pre-order back in June - which was a huge batch iirc. The difficulty didn't even double! There has only been one large batch since then, and two smaller ones. Worst - extremely worst - case scenario is that the difficult doubles from where it's at now, in which case mining with the L3+ would still be insanely profitable relative to any traditional sense of investing. Us miners are spoiled with insane ROI numbers. We shoot for 30% ROI per month when any other form of investment doesn't even see 30% per year.


LTC difficulty is now at 633k. I know that you know that previous to this batch, 3 days ago, Bitmain sold 18k units. All you need to do is look at BTC and you can easily extrapolate the future scenario for Alt Coin mining. Sometime in the near future, you will make $300.00 p/machine per month. Just look at the types of people posting in here. They don't have the slightest clue what they are doing. I spent 30 years trading and constructing institutional hedge strategies in the financial markets for JP Morgan, Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse etc etc. I have a little experience with this type of herd mentality. I was paid very large amounts of money to extract risk from these firm's portfolios. This is like any other business. When all the sheep come pouring in for the "easy money" it portends at least corrective changes. $1,272.00 ludicrous?Huh That's what I paid for the batch I'm currently running. Not "ludicrous" at all. Last month I skipped the D3 batch that went for $2,595.00 and bought into the very next one for $1,600.00. It's all about cost. It's all about value and it's all about being rational. Paying $2,280.00 for the L3+ in the current dynamic, is none of those things.

Lastly, this is a high risk business. There is MUCH more in play here than just those ROI calculators everyone relies so heavily on. In trading,  we have a term called "edge". If you have the "edge", you can survive. If you give up the "edge" you are just meat for those that have it. Buying L3+ for $2,280.00 is absolutely giving up ANY edge. Just trying to help. Take it for what it's worth.

Just help me understand, because for whatever reason I can't. You say you spent 30 years in the finance industry, but I don't understand how $300 profit/machine per month sometime in the near future is bad? $300 profit per month from a $2,280 investment is only just over a 7 month ROI, and that's your worst case scenario when you factor in the fact that you'll be able to get a lot of money back from selling your machines when you upgrade. $300 per month, worst case scenario. I don't at all understand how you would have to be smoking crack to invest in that! Especially if you believe in the future of cryptocurrency, who knows what the best case scenario could be! You come from the financial world, surely you know that a 7 month ROI in any traditional sense of investing is unheard of, no?

I got my October batch for $1,650 each which of course now looks like a good deal compared to the $2,280, but if I wouldn't have gotten my hands on that batch, I would have easily spent $2,280 per machine for this recent batch. Of course all of this is under the assumption that this is the highest risk business that you could probably ever invest in, but I think the "edge" that we have against all of the risk we're taking is what the future of cryptocurrency could be, and where it could go. Everyone is different, but I will gladly accept all of the risks that come with investing in mining for the potential profits. I appreciate your opinion, especially if you have all of that experience in finance, I just don't believe you would have to be smoking crack like you say to spend a few hundred more dollars to get in on this, which only equates to another few weeks of ROI, in the worst case scenario. I look forward to hearing more of what you think on the topic, I'm just not buying into the doomsday scenario is all!

I think the issue is that ROI calculations depend on speculation of future difficulty (and hence earnings) over time.
While you may see $300/month right now, that could change tomorrow, or the next day, etc...
There is no way to predict exact ROI, only estimate it.
Most estimates I have seen include a percentage difficulty increase over time, as is done on the BitcoinWisdom site, but again that only applies to LTC and BTC, as they don't have other coin calculators.
Keep in mind also that the ROI is also dependent on future estimate of coin value, which (while typically climbing of late) can vary up or down.
This is the nature of RISK. It's cannot be accurately predicted, only estimated. Any decisions you make should be based on your assumption of RISK.

That's true, but we're not seeing $300/mo right now. Right now, we're seeing over $800/mo. The difficulty could double and we'd still see more than $300/mo, and that worst case scenario is assuming the price of Bitcoin or Litecoin doesn't rise, which is unlikely. That worst case scenario also doesn't factor in the fact that you can sell your miners when you decide to upgrade for a decent amount of money. Like I said, I'm not buying into the doomsday scenario, I may be blind for say so, but it's just how I feel about crypto in general.

Of course like you say this is the nature of risk, and we cannot accurately predict what will happen 3 months, 6 months, or 12 months from now. How I see it though, I will gladly accept all the potential risks associated for all the potential profits associated.
I'm not seeing he value in an obsolete ASIC's unit. That is actually the major difference from the GPU. Application specific means more or less a one trick pony. Unless you find a buyer with free electricity and even then you'll not get much for them. My impression is they don't have much "resale" value.  Is that wrong?

You only live once....if you do it right, once is enough.

 Excellent FAQ for Lightning Network https://medium.com/@AudunGulbrands1/lightning-faq-67bd2b957d70
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September 07, 2017, 02:27:53 PM
 #2418

The global supply for this batch seems so small. If you want to buy l3+, PM me.
I wouldn't even pay $2,280.00 for a unit that will not even ship until after many 1000's of others have shipped and slammed the network. If you want to sell it for what it's worth by December I'll buy it. That would be $1,272.00. PM me. People that are flocking to buy these for $2,280.00 are smoking crack.

I don't understand where your overly dramatic difficulty predictions come from. Do you just say that to try and get a cheaper price on the miners? There's no way anyone is selling you their L3+ for $2280, let alone your ludicrous asking price of $1272.

Look at the difficulty since the end of August when people started receiving and firing up their miners from the August/September batch that people had to pre-order back in June - which was a huge batch iirc. The difficulty didn't even double! There has only been one large batch since then, and two smaller ones. Worst - extremely worst - case scenario is that the difficult doubles from where it's at now, in which case mining with the L3+ would still be insanely profitable relative to any traditional sense of investing. Us miners are spoiled with insane ROI numbers. We shoot for 30% ROI per month when any other form of investment doesn't even see 30% per year.


LTC difficulty is now at 633k. I know that you know that previous to this batch, 3 days ago, Bitmain sold 18k units. All you need to do is look at BTC and you can easily extrapolate the future scenario for Alt Coin mining. Sometime in the near future, you will make $300.00 p/machine per month. Just look at the types of people posting in here. They don't have the slightest clue what they are doing. I spent 30 years trading and constructing institutional hedge strategies in the financial markets for JP Morgan, Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse etc etc. I have a little experience with this type of herd mentality. I was paid very large amounts of money to extract risk from these firm's portfolios. This is like any other business. When all the sheep come pouring in for the "easy money" it portends at least corrective changes. $1,272.00 ludicrous?Huh That's what I paid for the batch I'm currently running. Not "ludicrous" at all. Last month I skipped the D3 batch that went for $2,595.00 and bought into the very next one for $1,600.00. It's all about cost. It's all about value and it's all about being rational. Paying $2,280.00 for the L3+ in the current dynamic, is none of those things.

Lastly, this is a high risk business. There is MUCH more in play here than just those ROI calculators everyone relies so heavily on. In trading,  we have a term called "edge". If you have the "edge", you can survive. If you give up the "edge" you are just meat for those that have it. Buying L3+ for $2,280.00 is absolutely giving up ANY edge. Just trying to help. Take it for what it's worth.

Just help me understand, because for whatever reason I can't. You say you spent 30 years in the finance industry, but I don't understand how $300 profit/machine per month sometime in the near future is bad? $300 profit per month from a $2,280 investment is only just over a 7 month ROI, and that's your worst case scenario when you factor in the fact that you'll be able to get a lot of money back from selling your machines when you upgrade. $300 per month, worst case scenario. I don't at all understand how you would have to be smoking crack to invest in that! Especially if you believe in the future of cryptocurrency, who knows what the best case scenario could be! You come from the financial world, surely you know that a 7 month ROI in any traditional sense of investing is unheard of, no?

I got my October batch for $1,650 each which of course now looks like a good deal compared to the $2,280, but if I wouldn't have gotten my hands on that batch, I would have easily spent $2,280 per machine for this recent batch. Of course all of this is under the assumption that this is the highest risk business that you could probably ever invest in, but I think the "edge" that we have against all of the risk we're taking is what the future of cryptocurrency could be, and where it could go. Everyone is different, but I will gladly accept all of the risks that come with investing in mining for the potential profits. I appreciate your opinion, especially if you have all of that experience in finance, I just don't believe you would have to be smoking crack like you say to spend a few hundred more dollars to get in on this, which only equates to another few weeks of ROI, in the worst case scenario. I look forward to hearing more of what you think on the topic, I'm just not buying into the doomsday scenario is all!
Fair enough, I retract my "crack" comment. I failed to be clear. I don't find those returns "bad" either, relative to other vehicles. I am involved believe me, and have long range plans. From my perspective, there is no fair analogy with this space to other traditional "investments". The "ROI" comparisons can be rendered useless in a blink. All I'm trying to say is, be rational, be patient, keep your "edge" and don't get caught up in this frenzy. When people jam servers for hours on end to gobble up units at all time price highs, when the future outlook for those machines is at least the most negative we have seen it, I take that as a warning, For me, I feel that the future outlook in BTC Diff and profitability is more calculable than these new Scrypt and X11's. I'd much rather buy S9's at $1,100.00 and make $300.00 p/m than take a flyer at $2,280.00 for something that has untold future downside. Does that make sense? I'm not predicting doomsday. I'm in this for the long haul I hope. I'm just predicting that the weak hands and emotional money will more likely get shaken out in a downturn. It's a very regular occurrence over history.

Fair enough and well said!

I would have gone the S9 route myself as they are far cheaper and still very profitable, but the additional heat that they would produce over the L3+ where I live (southeast usa) wouldn't be preferable. I'm glad I was somehow lucky enough to order as large a batch as I did from the mid-October batch for $1650/per, along with their power supplies.
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September 07, 2017, 02:30:27 PM
 #2419

To keep this from being even more of a cluster fuck, I just pm'd you to chat more. @BenRickert
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September 07, 2017, 02:31:08 PM
 #2420

Is it possible to run 4 x L3+ in the same room using 4 "different" outlets?
The question is not about outlets, but about circuits.
Depending on where you live in the world, you have different power capabilities per circuit.
In the US, a typical circuit is 110V @ 15A, or 1.6KW. Given that a single L3+ is rated at over 800W at the wall, trying to run 2 rigs on a single circuit is not recommended.
First, determine what your wattage is at the outlet in question.
Second, determine if that wattage is shared with anything else on the same circuit (a single circuit typically contains multiple outlets).
Divide the available wattage available on that circuit by the rated wall wattage and round down.
That will tell you how many rigs you can run on the circuit.
I'm actually getting nervous now that some people are going to die in a house fire as a result of messing with these servers without knowledge.......I hope they read your post and take it seriously.
The way things are designed, the breaker should simply trip long before any issue with fire arises.
If you overload a circuit it will get hot, but long before it get's too hot (for a fire to occur) the breaker should trip and cut power to the affected circuit.
It's one way to know if you have too many rigs on a circuit, if the breaker trips...
I understand this but there is another devil in the details. These units run constantly and can heat older wires beyond limits. Those wires can and DO catch fire before tripping breakers. That obviously happens inside a wall where it will not be detected until it's too late. Many older structures have tired and stressed wiring.

You only live once....if you do it right, once is enough.

 Excellent FAQ for Lightning Network https://medium.com/@AudunGulbrands1/lightning-faq-67bd2b957d70
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