Liquid Synergy Designs Inc. -ASIC mining hardware

[User705]

So you guys really think there will be an additional $92,000,000 (give or take 10,000,000) invested in mining by the end of the year?

how are you calculating that number?

[sokol815]

So you guys really think there will be an additional $92,000,000 (give or take 10,000,000) invested in mining by the end of the year?

how are you calculating that number?

Well, based on some stats about Avalon group purchase costs:
10,000 avalaon chips are capable of 2.82 TH/s.
10,000 chips costs 782.1 BTC (or thereabouts) this is roughly $78,210
In the past, it has taken 7.15 TH to increase the network difficulty by 1 million
7.15 TH/2.82 TH = 2.53 avalon batches of 10,000 chips.
Convert into dollars at 1 btc = $100.00: 2.53 * $78,210 = $197871.3
so that is $197,871.3 worth of only chips (no boards included) to increase network difficulty by 1 million.

TheJuice (and apparently, powpow) predicts a 576 million difficulty by December 29th... this is about 540 million higher difficulty than it is now:
540 * $197.871.3 = $106,850,502, which is probably on the high side of how much it would cost (assuming there are people who can get hashing power for a little cheaper)

Obviously, this is just a ball-park figure.

[TheJuice]

So you guys really think there will be an additional $92,000,000 (give or take 10,000,000) invested in mining by the end of the year?

how are you calculating that number?

Well, based on some stats about Avalon group purchase costs:
10,000 avalaon chips are capable of 2.82 TH/s.
10,000 chips costs 782.1 BTC (or thereabouts) this is roughly $78,210
In the past, it has taken 7.15 TH to increase the network difficulty by 1 million
7.15 TH/2.82 TH = 2.53 avalon batches of 10,000 chips.
Convert into dollars at 1 btc = $100.00: 2.53 * $78,210 = $197871.3
so that is $197,871.3 worth of only chips (no boards included) to increase network difficulty by 1 million.

TheJuice (and apparently, powpow) predicts a 576 million difficulty by December 29th... this is about 540 million higher difficulty than it is now:
540 * $197.871.3 = $106,850,502, which is probably on the high side of how much it would cost (assuming there are people who can get hashing power for a little cheaper)

Obviously, this is just a ball-park figure.

There is a ton of price pressure now esp with gen2 chips coming online shortly, so I don't think that amount of $$ will need to flow into the market.

[trigeek]

Well, based on some stats about Avalon group purchase costs:
10,000 avalaon chips are capable of 2.82 TH/s.
10,000 chips costs 782.1 BTC (or thereabouts) this is roughly $78,210

Just for bare chips, that works out to $27/gh.  Bitfury chips (when you could buy chips alone) in small quantities were $25 per 2.7gh/s chip.  So that's $9/gh, which is a third the cost of avalon.  And those exist.  If KNC ships this year, that's another.  And there's always ASICMiner. It's much less than $92M usd to hit those numbers. Cut that in half, at least.

And that is all the stuff that is publicly known. There could be more that nobody knows about yet.

[hoss]

So you guys really think there will be an additional $92,000,000 (give or take 10,000,000) invested in mining by the end of the year?

Yes.

No, a 10x increase in the network hash..... <TO LONG >

Network    BTC/day   $/day    profit/day   payback (months)
Thash/sec           
 200      0.1008    $10.08    $9.95    0.92
 400      0.0504    $5.04     $4.91    1.87             <<-- We are almost here & going up quick
 600      0.0336    $3.36     $3.23    2.84
 800      0.0252    $2.52     $2.39    3.83
 1,000    0.0202    $2.02     $1.89    4.86
 2,000    0.0101    $1.01     $0.88    10.44
 4,000    0.0050    $0.50     $0.37    24.48          <<--- Hash rate growth will stop here
 6,000    0.0034    $0.34     $0.21    44.41          <<--just BEFORE THIS TIME block reward is halved to 12.5BTC
**so at this point we stop mining unless BTC is over 2x current value.
8,000    0.0025    $0.25     $0.12    74.89
 10,000   0.0020    $0.20     $0.07    127.31
 20,000   0.0010    $0.10     $(0.03)   
 40,000   0.0005    $0.05     $(0.08)   
 60,000   0.0003    $0.03     $(0.10)                   
 80,000   0.0003    $0.03     $(0.10)   
 100,000   0.0002    $0.02     $(0.11)                 <<-- Need quantum hashing or $10K BTC to get here

[Unacceptable]

So you guys really think there will be an additional $92,000,000 (give or take 10,000,000) invested in mining by the end of the year?

how are you calculating that number?

Well, based on some stats about Avalon group purchase costs:
10,000 avalaon chips are capable of 2.82 TH/s.
10,000 chips costs 782.1 BTC (or thereabouts) this is roughly $78,210
In the past, it has taken 7.15 TH to increase the network difficulty by 1 million
7.15 TH/2.82 TH = 2.53 avalon batches of 10,000 chips.
Convert into dollars at 1 btc = $100.00: 2.53 * $78,210 = $197871.3
so that is $197,871.3 worth of only chips (no boards included) to increase network difficulty by 1 million.

TheJuice (and apparently, powpow) predicts a 576 million difficulty by December 29th... this is about 540 million higher difficulty than it is now:
540 * $197.871.3 = $106,850,502, which is probably on the high side of how much it would cost (assuming there are people who can get hashing power for a little cheaper)

Obviously, this is just a ball-park figure.

You do realize 576,000,000 diff / 131,384 (amount of diff in every TH,approx)=4385 TerraHash right ?? By December ??

If this is true,EVERYONE,not just us little guys are EXTREMELY screwed  

I don't think it will be that high for more than 2 years from now or even 3 or 4 years....I sure hope I'm right  

[powpow]

You do realize 576,000,000 diff / 131,384 (amount of diff in every TH,approx)=4385 TerraHash right ?? By December ??

If this is true,EVERYONE,not just us little guys are EXTREMELY screwed  

I don't think it will be that high for more than 2 years from now or even 3 or 4 years....I sure hope I'm right  

I think that's conservative.  Next diff increase will already be over a 30% jump.

[Unacceptable]

You do realize 576,000,000 diff / 131,384 (amount of diff in every TH,approx)=4385 TerraHash right ?? By December ??

If this is true,EVERYONE,not just us little guys are EXTREMELY screwed  

I don't think it will be that high for more than 2 years from now or even 3 or 4 years....I sure hope I'm right  

I think that's conservative.  Next diff increase will already be over a 30% jump.

So....all ASIC's up to this point will useless in 2-3 months 

I REALLY hope your incorrect 

Just looked on Bitcoin charts,holy shit...............

Difficulty 37392766

Estimated 45314461 in 937 blks (only 344TH)

Network total  443.185 Thash/s

Blocks/hour 9.93 / 362 s

Well,gotta wait & save up for KNC or Hashfast rigs 

 

[cp1]

Apparently our chips are stuck in customs for about "two weeks".  Then in October the next gen Avalons will be available.  Oh well.

[nightengale]

If they were legitimately shipped and stuck on customs, wouldn't there be all sorts of tracking numbers floating around for the various group buys? Something is afoul still.

[powpow]

If they were legitimately shipped and stuck on customs, wouldn't there be all sorts of tracking numbers floating around for the various group buys? Something is afoul still.

Yes, China utilizes online tracking for all customs and can be viewed here with the tracking number (But Avalon didn't provide one):

http://service.customs.gov.cn/default.aspx?tabid=9405

I suspect a lie.

[bystander]

If they were legitimately shipped and stuck on customs, wouldn't there be all sorts of tracking numbers floating around for the various group buys? Something is afoul still.

Yes, it's likely he was trying to think of an excuse (last time he used the SMT machine stuck in customs reason) and hastily came up with this one.  There was a shipment to a reseller in HK on June 25 consisting of 135 boxes (according TheGenesisBlock) with full tracking numbers.  For a 200,000 lot of chips, there definitely will be tracking and this could be verified.

[Xian01]

I can't imagine what Steamboat must be going through right now.

Let's hope we all didn't just get fucked by Yifu.

[bystander]

Thinking back to Zefir's batch which arrived a couple weeks ago, he mentioned this:

Update: 1st batch shipped

I got a a status update from Avalon - the first batch of chips has been shipped, including DHL tracking number. It should get delivered this week.

So they did send it through DHL with a tracking number, though it does seem it was shipped directly from Avalon rather than TMSC.

[powpow]

I can't imagine what Steamboat must be going through right now.

Let's hope we all didn't just get fucked by Yifu.

I think the only option left would be for the Group Buy heads to get together and try to leverage a partial refund of BTC because of the delays.

[s40ward]

Being that Bitsyncom's failure (for whatever the reason) has most certainly pushed us into negative ROI, IMO it should reimburse the community from any profit made off of these late orders; else it can only be called theft and they have forever made clear both their personal and business ethics. 

How's that for a run on sentence?   

[logicbomb666]

In case others did not see the other thread about avalon's "news".

http://www.avalon-asics.com/


2 pages total. 

[shep80]

I can't imagine what Steamboat must be going through right now.

Let's hope we all didn't just get fucked by Yifu.

I very much agree with your sentiment about Steamboat. He has done a great job coordinating this process to date and it will be a shame if the venture ends up being a substantial loss for him (and his associated customers, of course).

[nightengale]

I can't imagine what Steamboat must be going through right now.

Let's hope we all didn't just get fucked by Yifu.

I very much agree with your sentiment about Steamboat. He has done a great job coordinating this process to date and it will be a shame if the venture ends up being a substantial loss for him (and his associated customers, of course).

A huge shame. From all appearances Steamboat has put together a first-class operation. One of the other chip-makers should hire him to run their logistics.

[TomKeddie]

Yes, China utilizes online tracking for all customs and can be viewed here with the tracking number (But Avalon didn't provide one):

http://service.customs.gov.cn/default.aspx?tabid=9405

I suspect a lie.

I think he is talking about the shipment to his distribution point from the foundry.  Customs screw-ups are to be expected from new operations, it takes a lot of care and skill to get import/export right.  I believe him, but I also think it is their fault, customs is just enforcing the law (lets assume there is no corruption at work, this might be a poor assumption).