Liquid Synergy Designs Inc. -ASIC mining hardware

[alfabitcoin]

  Majority of people agree with me and how to calculate ROI and is avalon chips profitable or not. So I suggest you to start reading!

And finally, I am disagree with your calculations and that you based ROI in USD and wild justification in the klondike purchase, thats all. Never called you to wine or bitch. There is a difference between me and you - BEING REAL!.
You have not responded to other arguments, I wonder why!!
I will let other members who speak English better then me explain how wrong you are!

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[bigbeninlondon]

Please stop posting wild and misleading claims without showing any calculations. Below is calculated with 4500 mh/s, $.0.10 electricity, and 33% per month increase in difficulty rating for one K16 starting at 100 million difficulty.

33% difficulty increase per month is laughable.  From August 3rd to September 4th of this year, we've seen a 232% increase.  How can you try to calculate @ 33% per month when the last month has been 232% increase?

Obviously 232% per month is unsustainable LONG term.  But if HashFast, KNC, Bitfury and BFL continue to make miners with significant hashpower, this increase can last long enough to make these 110 nm chips lose over half of their assembled value.

To not accept this likely outcome is to look at this situation with rose colored glasses.

[nightengale]

Please stop posting wild and misleading claims without showing any calculations. Below is calculated with 4500 mh/s, $.0.10 electricity, and 33% per month increase in difficulty rating for one K16 starting at 100 million difficulty.

33% difficulty increase per month is laughable.  From August 3rd to September 4th of this year, we've seen a 232% increase.  How can you try to calculate @ 33% per month when the last month has been 232% increase?

Obviously 232% per month is unsustainable LONG term.  But if HashFast, KNC, Bitfury and BFL continue to make miners with significant hashpower, this increase can last long enough to make these 110 nm chips lose over half of their assembled value.

To not accept this likely outcome is to look at this situation with rose colored glasses.

Thank you for explaining this, hopefully it will sink in.

Put more directly -- ROI is dead, please bring on more refund details.

[ScaryHash]

Please stop posting wild and misleading claims without showing any calculations. Below is calculated with 4500 mh/s, $.0.10 electricity, and 33% per month increase in difficulty rating for one K16 starting at 100 million difficulty.

33% difficulty increase per month is laughable.  From August 3rd to September 4th of this year, we've seen a 232% increase.  How can you try to calculate @ 33% per month when the last month has been 232% increase?

Obviously 232% per month is unsustainable LONG term.  But if HashFast, KNC, Bitfury and BFL continue to make miners with significant hashpower, this increase can last long enough to make these 110 nm chips lose over half of their assembled value.

To not accept this likely outcome is to look at this situation with rose colored glasses.

I agree with you that 232% increase per month in difficulty is not really sustainable. And, I am not looking at this through rose colored glasses.

It is, of course, infinitely debatable whether actually ANY ASIC that won't start mining past October 2013 will actually make ROI, assuming current BTC prices.

And that is the rub, which some people choose to not accept, BTC price increases. Like it or not, the conversion rate between Yen and $$ USD actually matters to financial markets, like Tokyo and Wall St.

Similarly, the BTC to $$ or Euro exchange rate DOES matter. It's one thing for BTC to be at $100/BTC, and quite another for the exchange rate to drop to $15/BTC. The Bitcoin universe does not exist by itself, despite wishful thinking. You have to consider exchange rate, for the simple reason that If BTC dropped to zero value/Euro or $$, NOBODY would be mining it. Looking at extreme scenarios gives you a good idea of what the real value of something is.

Similarly, if BTC went to $1000/BTC, it would be on every news headline. Look what happened when it hit over $200/BTC earlier this year. Bitcoin started being in the news.

That is what some people do not understand. If BTC dropped to zero value/Euro or $$, NOBODY would be mining it. So it is absurd to ignore the fact that BTC has recently increased in value, and it would be absurd to NOT include that in ROI calculations.

[alfabitcoin]

Miner generate btc bit by bit over time. Point over ROI in btc or $ are disscused many times over and over with majority agree ROI in btc is only viable. If miner does not produce more btc then when being bought with, it wont brake even or have positive ROI. Why to mine 24/7 and watch over boards that all work smoothly? Just hold the btc instead and sell them when feel like nice profit?
ROI in $ justification is only "hope" to us who already made investment as we cant hold of any good argument anymore. But that "excuse and justification" is delusional and wrong.
Example:
Diff jump 250% from time of the purchase
Btc price: 25% from time of the purchase

Steamboat: update on chips and assambly refund would be nice

[wrenchmonkey]

Please stop posting wild and misleading claims without showing any calculations. Below is calculated with 4500 mh/s, $.0.10 electricity, and 33% per month increase in difficulty rating for one K16 starting at 100 million difficulty.

33% difficulty increase per month is laughable.  From August 3rd to September 4th of this year, we've seen a 232% increase.  How can you try to calculate @ 33% per month when the last month has been 232% increase?

Obviously 232% per month is unsustainable LONG term.  But if HashFast, KNC, Bitfury and BFL continue to make miners with significant hashpower, this increase can last long enough to make these 110 nm chips lose over half of their assembled value.

To not accept this likely outcome is to look at this situation with rose colored glasses.

I agree with you that 232% increase per month in difficulty is not really sustainable. And, I am not looking at this through rose colored glasses.

It is, of course, infinitely debatable whether actually ANY ASIC that won't start mining past October 2013 will actually make ROI, assuming current BTC prices.

And that is the rub, which some people choose to not accept, BTC price increases. Like it or not, the conversion rate between Yen and $$ USD actually matters to financial markets, like Tokyo and Wall St.

Similarly, the BTC to $$ or Euro exchange rate DOES matter. It's one thing for BTC to be at $100/BTC, and quite another for the exchange rate to drop to $15/BTC. The Bitcoin universe does not exist by itself, despite wishful thinking. You have to consider exchange rate, for the simple reason that If BTC dropped to zero value/Euro or $$, NOBODY would be mining it. Looking at extreme scenarios gives you a good idea of what the real value of something is.

Similarly, if BTC went to $1000/BTC, it would be on every news headline. Look what happened when it hit over $200/BTC earlier this year. Bitcoin started being in the news.

That is what some people do not understand. If BTC dropped to zero value/Euro or $$, NOBODY would be mining it. So it is absurd to ignore the fact that BTC has recently increased in value, and it would be absurd to NOT include that in ROI calculations.

What an utterly idiotic way to look at things. People don't make investments that guaranteed to lose them money, and justify it by saying, "Well the exchange rate of the USD might improve, so it's not a bad investment.

If you're going to tread on the probability of a Bitcoin exchange rate increase, buy Bitcoin. Buying mining equipment that mines at a loss, in hopes of recovering $ by exchange rate changes is as stupid as buying bulldozers at a loss to mine gold, in hopes that the cost of gold would increase. You'd be a fool to do that, instead of just buying gold in the first place.

Face it, ROI on these miners at the price we paid is TOAST. Dead. Over. Finito. Justify it to yourself however you want, but don't expect anybody to take you seriously.

[bcp19]

What an utterly idiotic way to look at things. People don't make investments that guaranteed to lose them money, and justify it by saying, "Well the exchange rate of the USD might improve, so it's not a bad investment.

If you're going to tread on the probability of a Bitcoin exchange rate increase, buy Bitcoin. Buying mining equipment that mines at a loss, in hopes of recovering $ by exchange rate changes is as stupid as buying bulldozers at a loss to mine gold, in hopes that the cost of gold would increase. You'd be a fool to do that, instead of just buying gold in the first place.

Face it, ROI on these miners at the price we paid is TOAST. Dead. Over. Finito. Justify it to yourself however you want, but don't expect anybody to take you seriously.

While you are correct that expectig a positive BTC RoI on anything at the moment is unlikely at best, you need to look at people in general.  When I was in the Navy, you could opt to have $10/$20/$50/$100/xx taken out of your paycheck monthly to be used to buy savings bonds.  Since I had already been out of my own for 7 years since graduating HS at the time I enlisted, I had bills like car payments, insurance, credits cards, etc. that the average kid just out of school did not.  I elected not to have money taken out.  I did ask the pay clerks on average how many people DID use this and the answer was less than 10%.

If the average bitcoin miner is the same, they can't or won't take the time to invest monthly into stocks or bonds or even BTC.  While I am not an average BTC miner, like most I have monthly bills, Rent, Electricity, Gas, Water, Credit Cards, Car, Insurance, Phone... the list can go on and on.  Now, I can either add a new expense to the ones I have... investing in BTC monthly... or I can make a purchase and just pay a slightly higher electric bill and have the investment happen for me.  Like purchasing Gold or Stocks, purchasing BTC usually involves a middle man and will cost you a % of your purchase.  I never purchased gold or stocks due to this middle-man fee.  It felt like I was being ripped off every single month.  If I buy the equipment though, I only pay a premium once and I can ignore the added expense of my electric bill, or I can put in florescent or LED bulbs to save money to offset the added cost.

Sure, the most sensible thing to do is buy and hold BTC.  But it's boring.  As I said someplace else... if I really want to watch grass grow, I have a yard.  But that equipment is something tangible that I can hear, feel and see.  Every day the numbers change, I may make a little more or a little less, but I am making something.  I can see my investment grow, not sit as a static number in a wallet that I have to refrain from using and pray that dip in price is only temporary or panic and cut my losses.

Not everyone CAN save.  It's an unfortunate fact.

[alfabitcoin]

What an utterly idiotic way to look at things. People don't make investments that guaranteed to lose them money, and justify it by saying, "Well the exchange rate of the USD might improve, so it's not a bad investment.

If you're going to tread on the probability of a Bitcoin exchange rate increase, buy Bitcoin. Buying mining equipment that mines at a loss, in hopes of recovering $ by exchange rate changes is as stupid as buying bulldozers at a loss to mine gold, in hopes that the cost of gold would increase. You'd be a fool to do that, instead of just buying gold in the first place.

Face it, ROI on these miners at the price we paid is TOAST. Dead. Over. Finito. Justify it to yourself however you want, but don't expect anybody to take you seriously.

While you are correct that expectig a positive BTC RoI on anything at the moment is unlikely at best, you need to look at people in general.  When I was in the Navy, you could opt to have $10/$20/$50/$100/xx taken out of your paycheck monthly to be used to buy savings bonds.  Since I had already been out of my own for 7 years since graduating HS at the time I enlisted, I had bills like car payments, insurance, credits cards, etc. that the average kid just out of school did not.  I elected not to have money taken out.  I did ask the pay clerks on average how many people DID use this and the answer was less than 10%.

If the average bitcoin miner is the same, they can't or won't take the time to invest monthly into stocks or bonds or even BTC.  While I am not an average BTC miner, like most I have monthly bills, Rent, Electricity, Gas, Water, Credit Cards, Car, Insurance, Phone... the list can go on and on.  Now, I can either add a new expense to the ones I have... investing in BTC monthly... or I can make a purchase and just pay a slightly higher electric bill and have the investment happen for me.  Like purchasing Gold or Stocks, purchasing BTC usually involves a middle man and will cost you a % of your purchase.  I never purchased gold or stocks due to this middle-man fee.  It felt like I was being ripped off every single month.  If I buy the equipment though, I only pay a premium once and I can ignore the added expense of my electric bill, or I can put in florescent or LED bulbs to save money to offset the added cost.

Sure, the most sensible thing to do is buy and hold BTC.  But it's boring.  As I said someplace else... if I really want to watch grass grow, I have a yard.  But that equipment is something tangible that I can hear, feel and see.  Every day the numbers change, I may make a little more or a little less, but I am making something.  I can see my investment grow, not sit as a static number in a wallet that I have to refrain from using and pray that dip in price is only temporary or panic and cut my losses.

Not everyone CAN save.  It's an unfortunate fact.

That is another justification and excuse, mining for fun or having a miner is a toy. Hey, I, like many others are not investing out of boredome or to have fun! In that event I would buy one board or gpu and that is a big if. Also, I dont see any fun in mining, its must be watched and taken care of 24/7 with hw what does not have any warranty.
Further, you pay pool fee and btc in wallet does not have dividents as stocks or bonds does.

[bigbeninlondon]

Please stop posting wild and misleading claims without showing any calculations. Below is calculated with 4500 mh/s, $.0.10 electricity, and 33% per month increase in difficulty rating for one K16 starting at 100 million difficulty.

33% difficulty increase per month is laughable.  From August 3rd to September 4th of this year, we've seen a 232% increase.  How can you try to calculate @ 33% per month when the last month has been 232% increase?

Obviously 232% per month is unsustainable LONG term.  But if HashFast, KNC, Bitfury and BFL continue to make miners with significant hashpower, this increase can last long enough to make these 110 nm chips lose over half of their assembled value.

To not accept this likely outcome is to look at this situation with rose colored glasses.

I agree with you that 232% increase per month in difficulty is not really sustainable. And, I am not looking at this through rose colored glasses.

It is, of course, infinitely debatable whether actually ANY ASIC that won't start mining past October 2013 will actually make ROI, assuming current BTC prices.

And that is the rub, which some people choose to not accept, BTC price increases. Like it or not, the conversion rate between Yen and $$ USD actually matters to financial markets, like Tokyo and Wall St.

Here, let me illustrate.  Assume hardware cost = BTC2.5 and supporting hardware cost (psu cables and fan) is around BTC.25, which is very generous.

Code:

Cost = 2.5 + .25;
Cost = 2.75;

Return = 2.0;

if (Cost > Return)
   don't buy;
else
   buy;

Obviously if btc goes up it can affect ROI in terms of your local currency.  But if you lose btc mining, then you just wasted your time and energy and ended up with less btc than you would have if you just hadn't mined.

God I feel like I've had this same conversation about 300 times.

[nightengale]

So considering number of group buys have already completed the refund process... Isn't it about time for an update? I understand that Steamboat may have some sort of negotiation in the works, but we're coming back to the issue of how the updates came all the time when everything was on schedule, and now that we're all losing money, updates are **really** scarce.

[ScaryHash]

Looks like Yifu is in the process of screwing his customers...

So sorry, your order is in shipping-processing.

Too effing bad for jOO...

Jeezuz....this is amazingly bad.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=289551.new#new

[alfabitcoin]

Guys
Any suggestion for Steamboat? Any idea?
I would like that Steve request yifu refund for max batches he could.
Afterwards, he could start to negotiate with bitfury or other chip manufacture. Also, he could licence board design s-board from c-scape or other designer. I am willing to stay but we need to discuss our options. Avalon are dead but there are an options what can be good for us all. With refunded coins and already paid assambly Steve has setup for manufacture of miners based on some other asic.
Opinions, ideas?

[hoss]

In my drunken state last night I did (see link below).

Before you look at it, know that I respect your opinions if you believe difficulty will or will not increase at these rates.  The truth is that none of us know for sure. My heart tells me it won’t be this bad, but in my mind I expect it to be significantly worse.  Some things you should know about the sheet:
1)   It assumes a rolling 14 day window for difficulty jumps. In reality it will be shorter (makes our reward less. Eg bad for us)
2)   I used the BTC calculator http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/, BUT did not use power coast in my BTC results (again this makes our reward less. Eg bad for us)
3)   It assumes a steady difficulty delta increase of 5mill over previous 2 weeks (until the end where I increase it to 10mill).  This might be better approximated with a percentage.  This is probably the most questionable feature of the sheet.  However, it looks like we are on track to break the 25mill delta the sheet predicts for this next difficulty jump.
4)   I was fairly toasted last night, so if you find mathematical errors PM me and I will fix them ASAP.  I am fairly sure I did not get the dates perfect, but then again it’s a pall park estimate anyhow because a fixed 14 day window is not correct.

Please be kind to each other, we are all getting a fairly aggressive Colonoscopy here. (Especially steamboat)

The sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah7ZJVoobFY7dDRGQk1kdmJmaUJwZENKZUdNejJlWEE&usp=sharing
  

[cardcomm]

Please be kind to each other, we are all getting a fairly aggressive Colonoscopy here. (Especially steamboat)

How do you figure that? At this point SB seems pretty darn concerned with making a profit regardless.

[nightengale]

Please be kind to each other, we are all getting a fairly aggressive Colonoscopy here. (Especially steamboat)

How do you figure that? At this point SB seems pretty darn concerned with making a profit regardless.

I don't doubt SB's ability to turn lemons into lemonade, but we don't even have the lemons right now...

[bcp19]

In my drunken state last night I did (see link below).

Before you look at it, know that I respect your opinions if you believe difficulty will or will not increase at these rates.  The truth is that none of us know for sure. My heart tells me it won’t be this bad, but in my mind I expect it to be significantly worse.  Some things you should know about the sheet:
1)   It assumes a rolling 14 day window for difficulty jumps. In reality it will be shorter (makes our reward less. Eg bad for us)
2)   I used the BTC calculator http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/, BUT did not use power coast in my BTC results (again this makes our reward less. Eg bad for us)
3)   It assumes a steady difficulty delta increase of 5mill over previous 2 weeks (until the end where I increase it to 10mill).  This might be better approximated with a percentage.  This is probably the most questionable feature of the sheet.  However, it looks like we are on track to break the 25mill delta the sheet predicts for this next difficulty jump.
4)   I was fairly toasted last night, so if you find mathematical errors PM me and I will fix them ASAP.  I am fairly sure I did not get the dates perfect, but then again it’s a pall park estimate anyhow because a fixed 14 day window is not correct.

Please be kind to each other, we are all getting a fairly aggressive Colonoscopy here. (Especially steamboat)

The sheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah7ZJVoobFY7dDRGQk1kdmJmaUJwZENKZUdNejJlWEE&usp=sharing
  

I agree with your mind, unfortunately.  If you look at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=283820.0 in mining speculation, you'll see that in the next 45 days a lot of product is poised to ship.  Whether or not it does is the big question.  D&T has done a pretty good job rounding up the estimated pre-order totals and approx. shipping times for all the companies out there.

[andrewsg]

Let me sum this up for everyone.

If you care about ROI, refund your chips and work out something reasonable with steamboat re assembly and shipping costs.
If you are mining for entertainment value or to support the network, keep waiting. Another month won't make a difference to you.

[Lollaskates]

Let me sum this up for everyone.

If you care about ROI, refund your chips and work out something reasonable with steamboat re assembly and shipping costs.
If you are mining for entertainment value or to support the network, keep waiting. Another month won't make a difference to you.

I REALLY wish Steamboat would comment again and revise his "no assembly refunds" policy. That's really unfortunate and essentially theft if he keeps our ~$60 assembly cost (not incl. the ~$30 BOM parts). I would at least like an explanation as to why he feels he needs to keep that section of the overall cost. Maybe there's a non-refundable deposit to some degree, and we can only get 2/3 or even half of that $60 back, its better than nothing. It's looking like completing assembly and running our boards will net us just above the amount of money we would get if we just refunded and skipped the headache.

It's a sorry state of affairs, we all lost here. I'd appreciate if my money for assembly wasn't kept for an undisclosed reason, Steamboat. Explain the situation to us, or refund us the $60 assembly per board. This way myself and many others could get a full chip refund, and a majority of us can get more than the paltry chip refund back.

In my case,

~$2565 back in chips
~$1408 back in assembly
~$650 loss (5% to you, $30/board BOM parts.). <-- I can live with this, it was part of the risk after all.

Estimated Losses by option:
Chip refund only: -$2058
Est. from mining: -$1498
Chips and $60/board assembly refund: -$650

Man, that $650 loss looks so good right about now. Please, do the right thing and find a way to refund us our not-yet-performed assembly that we paid two months early up-front. It would make so many of us happy.

[nightengale]

Not to mention hosting. I've already paid the set-up fee for hosting too. Really hate being stuck in limbo.

[andrewsg]

I think you are being optimistic about how much assembling the boards and mining would net you. What is your expected start date? You should factor in at least 2 more retargets, if you think assembly will go without a hitch.