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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939883 times)
thefiniteidea
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August 14, 2014, 01:21:05 PM
 #1701

As a result of Bitfinex margin call cascade, ~$450 reached. Whether we go down further or not, I consider that deep enough to qualify as a "dramatic selloff" as predicted by masterluc.

Another plus point added to his already excellent record.

No no, we haven't seen the worst of it yet.

We may hang around these levels for a bit and bounce up a little even, but the worst is yet to come in the next few months...

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August 14, 2014, 01:42:22 PM
 #1702

As a result of Bitfinex margin call cascade, ~$450 reached. Whether we go down further or not, I consider that deep enough to qualify as a "dramatic selloff" as predicted by masterluc.

Another plus point added to his already excellent record.

No no, we haven't seen the worst of it yet.

We may hang around these levels for a bit and bounce up a little even, but the worst is yet to come in the next few months...

Ok, crashing and pain, but what happens after this ends?



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Beliathon
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August 14, 2014, 01:48:09 PM
 #1703

"When others are greedy, be fearful.
When others are fearful, be greedy."
-Warren Buffet



All of this has happened before, all of it will happen again.

Remember Aaron Swartz, a 26 year old computer scientist who died defending the free flow of information.
masterluc
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August 14, 2014, 01:54:09 PM
 #1704

I feel 400 will be start of something not good


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August 14, 2014, 01:59:15 PM
 #1705

What do you mean? That 400$ won't hold in the near future?
IMO bids will pile up above the 420$ which held in May and provide support and then a small rally to 540$,
which once broken became major resistance. Breaking 420$ soon would be very bearish.
Breaking 420$ for good in a month or so would be normal for capitulation.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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August 14, 2014, 02:06:24 PM
 #1706

$400 should be able to hold. However, the pessimistic scenario seems to be unfolding, which means we probably won't see $1000 for another 12 months.
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August 14, 2014, 02:15:18 PM
 #1707

I feel 400 will be start of something not good

My personal Maya doomster (jailed in my basement) is saying something similar. When begging him to precise his prophesy he's only muttering something inarticulately. Maybe you could precise yourself. Give us some scenarios, some numbers, something that is not so murky.

thefiniteidea
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August 15, 2014, 06:53:20 PM
 #1708

I would buy here at the bottom $480-$490 for the short term.

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August 15, 2014, 09:06:34 PM
 #1709

I would buy here at the bottom $480-$490 for the short term.
Indeed, if this level holds a while longer and MACD is allowed to cross we'll have confirmed bullish div on the hourly, which would most likely signal a spike, at least short term as you say.



But of course this is not yet certain and for all I know we could still have a last minute massive drop Smiley

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
thefiniteidea
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August 15, 2014, 09:22:04 PM
 #1710

A massive drop here would in fact be a very massive drop to sub $300...

Here's the support I am referring to:


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August 16, 2014, 10:47:33 PM
 #1711

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?
RyNinDaCleM
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August 16, 2014, 10:55:30 PM
 #1712

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?

Perhaps a better question would be; What is the significance of the horizontal support at ~$275? Where did it come from?

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August 16, 2014, 11:23:59 PM
 #1713

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?

I think he is referring to the MA that the candle is bouncing off of in that pic.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
thefiniteidea
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August 17, 2014, 12:09:24 AM
 #1714

Here's the support I am referring to:

How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?

I think he is referring to the MA that the candle is bouncing off of in that pic.

Lebing's got it.

Here's an updated pic with just the support I was referring to...


masterluc
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August 17, 2014, 05:12:07 AM
 #1715

Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it  several times in a row.

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August 17, 2014, 05:44:31 AM
 #1716

Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it  several times in a row.

i'd agree -- doesn't seem like enough data yet to draw much conclusion from it. are you still bearish, masterluc? it looks like there is a chance that reversal off $480 could be, but seems to lack strength to the upside now.

leaning bearish myself for now.
masterluc
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August 17, 2014, 06:04:24 AM
 #1717

I see bearish development so far. I don't say it may not inverse, but bearish odds rising since d/ma200 inflection.

- Under daily ma200
- Daily ma200 inflection on 6-10 June (actually first big warning sign)
- Coiled weekly BB(20) suggests development of a big move and price is moving into its negative zone
- Weekly macd bearish cross
- Strong hidden bearish divergence on daily chart mentioned few pages above

masterluc
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August 17, 2014, 06:09:23 AM
 #1718

I am not sure I wrote correctly "inflection" (not naturally english spoken).

I mean this - in June ma200 stopped rising and began to fall.


thefiniteidea
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August 17, 2014, 06:23:14 AM
 #1719

Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it  several times in a row.

To be fair, I don't think this support is strong enough to hold past 6 months. However, for the short term (until October at least) I think it will hold.

Overall, I am also bearish long term (thanks to the Fed).  Undecided

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August 17, 2014, 10:37:58 AM
 #1720

I am not sure I wrote correctly "inflection" (not naturally english spoken).

I mean this - in June ma200 stopped rising and began to fall.



"Inflection point" is correct imo.

Here's the comparable 2011 view.


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