Analysis

[oda.krell]

Alright. Time for a preliminary recap. We praise the guy when he's right (and deservedly so :D), but his scenario for the immediate post crash period clearly didn't play out:

In reality, we made a text book recovery over the weekend, and while (to me at least) it is far from sure the July-October rally will continue, the scenario of an immediate deeper crash didn't play out either.





Before some of you blow a fuse or something: I'm not saying this means the correction is over. Or that EW theory is all wrong. Or any other generalized bullshit like that. Just that luc's prediction about the immediate post-crash development was wrong.


Conspiracy theory section

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years... maybe he was thinking to re-buy at <50% if price fell sufficiently low, so his post crash prediction was based a bit on wishful thinking.... or maybe even a tiiiiny bit of manipulation :D

I'm not complaining, by the way. Luc's post here are always worth reading.

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[Chainsaw]

masterluc, thanks for the consistently high quality analysis.
I don't enjoy being on the bear bandwagon, but this time, it seems to be an eventuality.

[accord01]

Pushing again onto SMA200, will it break through?
Lacking volume, but who knows...

Graph?  Not sure what this means.

[sumantso]

Alright. Time for a preliminary recap. We praise the guy when he's right (and deservedly so ), but his scenario for the immediate post crash period clearly didn't play out:

In reality, we made a text book recovery over the weekend, and while (to me at least) it is far from sure the July-October rally will continue, the scenario of an immediate deeper crash didn't play out either.





Before some of you blow a fuse or something: I'm not saying this means the correction is over. Or that EW theory is all wrong. Or any other generalized bullshit like that. Just that luc's prediction about the immediate post-crash development was wrong.


Conspiracy theory section

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years... maybe he was thinking to re-buy at <50% if price fell sufficiently low, so his post crash prediction was based a bit on wishful thinking.... or maybe even a tiiiiny bit of manipulation

I'm not complaining, by the way. Luc's post here are always worth reading.

He has been wrong earlier too. He predicted a triangular movement saying 'triangles follow sharp movements'. To his credit he came back later and admitted the prediction not panning out and ended up calling the top correctly.

[samurai1200]

 excellent recap oda.krell.  appreciated.

[molecular]

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years...

I think I recall him saying he would be "out forever". But well, that was lucif, not masterluc, so technically he wasn't lying ,)

[oda.krell]

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years...

I think I recall him saying he would be "out forever". But well, that was lucif, not masterluc, so technically he wasn't lying ,)

Don't know about that one, but 3 or 4 pages ago, when he called the top, he also predicted we're entering a multi year bear market (based on EW theory, I suppose). That's the "1 or 2 years" i'm refering to.

By the way, even though I'm sceptical we'll really see bearish development for the entire coming year, it's good to at least occasionally *talk* about that possibility:

Most of us look at the all time price graph on a log chart, and it is hard *not* to think that this will continue and continue and continue. I mean, each crash (2011, 2012, twice 2013) turns out just a minimal roadbump in the big picture, with the times between ATHs getting smaller, and the bear markets lasting shorter (this year's bear market: May and June. In 2011: ~ 6 months)

So with that in mind, I also alway think: no big deal. we'll recover soon enough. But it's good to keep in mind that there's always a chance it *could* be different.

Not sure if I'm making myself clear here....  i don't see the signs for a 2 year bear market. But it is good to be prodded once in a while by someone to at least *look* for those signs (even if in the end you conclude there are none).

Jup. That's what I wanted to say

[maz]

I suspect luc did in fact sell when he said he did. But I'm not completely sure I believe him when he says he's determined to stop trading btc for the coming 1 or 2 years...

I think I recall him saying he would be "out forever". But well, that was lucif, not masterluc, so technically he wasn't lying ,)

Don't know about that one, but 3 or 4 pages ago, when he called the top, he also predicted we're entering a multi year bear market (based on EW theory, I suppose). That's the "1 or 2 years" i'm refering to.

By the way, even though I'm sceptical we'll really see bearish development for the entire coming year, it's good to at least occasionally *talk* about that possibility:

Most of us look at the all time price graph on a log chart, and it is hard *not* to think that this will continue and continue and continue. I mean, each crash (2011, 2012, twice 2013) turns out just a minimal roadbump in the big picture, with the times between ATHs getting smaller, and the bear markets lasting shorter (this year's bear market: May and June. In 2011: ~ 6 months)

So with that in mind, I also alway think: no big deal. we'll recover soon enough. But it's good to keep in mind that there's always a chance it *could* be different.

Not sure if I'm making myself clear here....  i don't see the signs for a 2 year bear market. But it is good to be prodded once in a while by someone to at least *look* for those signs (even if in the end you conclude there are none).

Jup. That's what I wanted to say

I like to see objective post's like this, refreshing now and again. Thanks.

[samurai1200]

again, nice one oda.krell.

hmm... it looks like its stabilized again at 900 ish, is it due to steadily rise or is there going to be a sharp drop? I'm confused by this.

I think that everyone is thinking this. What I have observed is that bitcoin rises and falls are fractal in nature (in that the short term ones on the order of minutes-hours often resemble long term ones on the order of days-weeks). This would tell me that we are due for a ~3 day downtrend to about 750-800 before turning around again to who knows where (sentiment pump to new ATH?). Note that is the worst kind of speculation -- one based on physics, which is essentially the universal opposite of emotion   

[samurai1200]

again, nice one oda.krell.

hmm... it looks like its stabilized again at 900 ish, is it due to steadily rise or is there going to be a sharp drop? I'm confused by this.

I think that everyone is thinking this. What I have observed is that bitcoin rises and falls are fractal in nature (in that the short term ones on the order of minutes-hours often resemble long term ones on the order of days-weeks). This would tell me that we are due for a ~3 day downtrend to about 750-800 before turning around again to who knows where (sentiment pump to new ATH?). Note that is the worst kind of speculation -- one based on physics, which is essentially the universal opposite of emotion  

Do you reckon it might fly down to $550 or maybe even $500? I was looking at another inflationary commodity, gold. It has a period in the late 80's where it double-peaked, went down, came back up in price then went right back down again to roughly the same value the first dip was in. Think it could behave like that?

Personally, no I don't think so, especially if there is a steady decline over days. Then again, just from memory, bitcoin's exchange rate rarely has a 'steady decline' over several days... a sell-off seems to always be triggered by 1-2 big sells, which act as an impulse to a (lately) well-damped system. Go back and try to find those days and you'll see what I mean. As an engineer, every time there is a sell-off, I can't help but see some variation on this (except inversed), but that might just be me:


I think if we're going to see any kind of $500-550 levels in the next week or so, it'll be for just a few moments (like, seconds-minutes), so have your orders set there well ahead of time.

[JustAnotherSheep]

I think that everyone is thinking this. What I have observed is that bitcoin rises and falls are fractal in nature (in that the short term ones on the order of minutes-hours often resemble long term ones on the order of days-weeks). This would tell me that we are due for a ~3 day downtrend to about 750-800 before turning around again to who knows where (sentiment pump to new ATH?). Note that is the worst kind of speculation -- one based on physics, which is essentially the universal opposite of emotion  

I wouldn't say that. Human emotion and psychology is of a fractal nature, and this is reflected in markets too. It's fascinating to think about!

Pushing again onto SMA200, will it break through?
Lacking volume, but who knows...

It's already been crossed on Bitstamp, BTC-E and BTCChina. I'm thinking trend reversal?

edit: crossed on Gox now too

[bitcodo]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=Hourly&c=1&s=2013-04-10&e=2013-04-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=SMA&m1=200&a2=&m2=100&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

SMA 200 April

[ft73]

I think that everyone is thinking this. What I have observed is that bitcoin rises and falls are fractal in nature (in that the short term ones on the order of minutes-hours often resemble long term ones on the order of days-weeks). This would tell me that we are due for a ~3 day downtrend to about 750-800 before turning around again to who knows where (sentiment pump to new ATH?). Note that is the worst kind of speculation -- one based on physics, which is essentially the universal opposite of emotion  

I wouldn't say that. Human emotion and psychology is of a fractal nature, and this is reflected in markets too. It's fascinating to think about!

Pushing again onto SMA200, will it break through?
Lacking volume, but who knows...

It's already been crossed on Bitstamp, BTC-E and BTCChina. I'm thinking trend reversal?

edit: crossed on Gox now too

Recovered VWAP, SMA100, SMA200.
Sure, it's low volume, but this rebound does not lack strength ...

Next stop around 1080$?

[Manticore]

I'm a huge lucif / masterluc fan as I think he provides some of the only real insight on this entire Speculation forum.

And I also agree, like many, that the clouds in the overal economic markets are ominous. A lot of markets could top out and what would happen to Bitcoin if the bottom dropped out in the overall markets? It's difficult to call tops when governments are creating massive artificial asset bubbles. I think the markets hold out longer than people think....

Regarding Bitcoin, I am no longer the pessimist I once was. I've always loved the technology and have held coins but didn't like last April's rise. My previous posts centered upon Bitcoin bubbles and rigged exchanges....Well, IMO it's clear to see I was correct about the rigged exchanges. I am no longer sure Bitcoin is a bubble or I believe it is something that will continue inflating because there will always be reasons for it to inflate and I don't see how it can truly ever deflate barring some major event or government action, etc.

I haven't posted in awhile but have been reading the thread. I also warned about an impending implosion back at 266 but not as eloquently and specifically, to the minute, as lucif. This time -- I don't see a crash -- it may trade sideways and go down a little -- but I do not see a crash. I don't see it approaching new highs over the next couple of weeks, but I also see too many potential reasons for holders to continue keeping it up.

[xephyr]

I agree completely, masterluc always has well reasoned opinions. I am very interested in his alternate wave count if we make new all time highs in the next week or so.

[ft73]

Recovered VWAP, SMA100, SMA200.
Sure, it's low volume, but this rebound does not lack strength ...

Next stop around 1080$?

Close, Gox peaked at 1068$.
By the way, i tried to short it a bit on Bitstamp from 960$ (it looked legitimate) and i hurted myself :|

[ft73]

hmm... I'm wondering what my best move would be then, jump back from Fiat to Bitcoin or hold onto my FIAT in the hopes it might find its way back down to about $600 or $700. I don't have enough really to make it worthwhile splitting half and half.

Not sure about 600$, but 700 is likely.

[oda.krell]

A hint for those who're wondering if the boat left without them: As a general rule, either don't trade at all, or if you trade: don't wait too long.

What I mean in particular is that, given the correction we just saw, you had two realistic options, and one unrealistic one.

The unrealistic one first: you're as good as luc, and you traded the swing perfectly (let's assume he did for a moment :D)

Okay, so you're not as good at reading the market... what are your other options then? The obvious one, often repeated by some of the big holders actually, like Rampion: just buy & hold. Which means during this swing, you would have done nothing.

Problem solved?

No, because I know that's not what I want, so I'm going to guess you don't want that either. You'd prefer to a) insure your investment against total loss, and b) you'd like to occasionally *profit* from the swings (i.e. your coin stash is bigger than before).

So I always cringe a bit when I read those tortured "Should I buy back?!" posts, or the ones that ask over and over "Should I sell already?!".

The answer is: yes. If you trade at all, trade (relatively) often.

That doesn't mean twice a day, not even twice a week, but instead of *wondering* if a correction is over, you *buy* if it seems to go up again, but be ready to *sell* as soon as it looks like the recovery was a bull trap after all.

I don't mean to sound like giving trite advice. The devil is obviously in the details, and you still need to familiarize yourself with some basic amount of TA to get a feeling for the market. But the single most important thing I had to learn in the past few months, and that I still have to bang into my head at each opportunity is that, if you're not sure, either act fast, or don't act at all.

[samurai1200]

A hint for those who're wondering if the boat left without them: As a general rule, either don't trade at all, or if you trade: don't wait too long.

What I mean in particular is that, given the correction we just saw, you had two realistic options, and one unrealistic one.

The unrealistic one first: you're as good as luc, and you traded the swing perfectly (let's assume he did for a moment )

Okay, so you're not as good at reading the market... what are your other options then? The obvious one, often repeated by some of the big holders actually, like Rampion: just buy & hold. Which means during this swing, you would have done nothing.

Problem solved?

No, because I know that's not what I want, so I'm going to guess you don't want that either. You'd prefer to a) insure your investment against total loss, and b) you'd like to occasionally *profit* from the swings (i.e. your coin stash is bigger than before).

So I always cringe a bit when I read those tortured "Should I buy back?!" posts, or the ones that ask over and over "Should I sell already?!".

The answer is: yes. If you trade at all, trade (relatively) often.

That doesn't mean twice a day, not even twice a week, but instead of *wondering* if a correction is over, you *buy* if it seems to go up again, but be ready to *sell* as soon as it looks like the recovery was a bull trap after all.

I don't mean to sound like giving trite advice. The devil is obviously in the details, and you still need to familiarize yourself with some basic amount of TA to get a feeling for the market. But the single most important thing I had to learn in the past few months, and that I still have to bang into my head at each opportunity is that, if you're not sure, either act fast, or don't act at all.

Good advice. It's tough to do while I hold a day job 

[rampantparanoia]

either act fast, or don't act at all.

sound advice.