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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919482 times)
masterluc
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August 17, 2014, 06:04:24 AM
 #1741

I see bearish development so far. I don't say it may not inverse, but bearish odds rising since d/ma200 inflection.

- Under daily ma200
- Daily ma200 inflection on 6-10 June (actually first big warning sign)
- Coiled weekly BB(20) suggests development of a big move and price is moving into its negative zone
- Weekly macd bearish cross
- Strong hidden bearish divergence on daily chart mentioned few pages above

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masterluc
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August 17, 2014, 06:09:23 AM
 #1742

I am not sure I wrote correctly "inflection" (not naturally english spoken).

I mean this - in June ma200 stopped rising and began to fall.


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August 17, 2014, 06:23:14 AM
 #1743

Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it  several times in a row.

To be fair, I don't think this support is strong enough to hold past 6 months. However, for the short term (until October at least) I think it will hold.

Overall, I am also bearish long term (thanks to the Fed).  Undecided

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oda.krell
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August 17, 2014, 10:37:58 AM
 #1744

I am not sure I wrote correctly "inflection" (not naturally english spoken).

I mean this - in June ma200 stopped rising and began to fall.



"Inflection point" is correct imo.

Here's the comparable 2011 view.


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August 18, 2014, 10:26:09 AM
 #1745

What you two call "inflection" are relative tops and bottoms.

The inflection point is where a slope that keeps getting more and more steep starts levelling off. In masterluc's chart that would be around the 5th of February in a positive slope. In oda.krell's we have an example where he put the sign "acceleration": For a brief time the line goes down fast and suddenly (in this case) starts going down slower.

It is not needed for the slope to be zero later, though that's the case in both charts.
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August 18, 2014, 12:56:13 PM
 #1746

What you two call "inflection" are relative tops and bottoms.

The inflection point is where a slope that keeps getting more and more steep starts levelling off. In masterluc's chart that would be around the 5th of February in a positive slope. In oda.krell's we have an example where he put the sign "acceleration": For a brief time the line goes down fast and suddenly (in this case) starts going down slower.

It is not needed for the slope to be zero later, though that's the case in both charts.

Jup, you're right. Didn't really think that one through.

Edit : the observation  about the price / ma relation remains, though, but the terms were wrong.

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thefiniteidea
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August 18, 2014, 01:06:08 PM
 #1747

There goes that support. I didn't think it would hold, but damn that was quick.

Very very bearish IMO now...

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August 18, 2014, 01:19:26 PM
 #1748

There goes that support. I didn't think it would hold, but damn that was quick.

Very very bearish IMO now...

What does very very bearish look like to you?  Under $400?  Under $300?? Shocked
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August 18, 2014, 01:29:21 PM
 #1749

There goes that support. I didn't think it would hold, but damn that was quick.

Very very bearish IMO now...

What does very very bearish look like to you?  Under $400?  Under $300?? Shocked

Under $300 would definitely be extremely bearish... Around $400 is not a big deal IMO. During the April 2013 bubble the price deflated from $266 to $50 - that's a depreciation of 80%, on the contrary $400ish would only be a 65-70% depreciation compared to the $1242 top. I don't see much real drama happening if $300 is not broken on the downside, and I honestly don't see it happening.

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August 18, 2014, 02:26:59 PM
 #1750

$380-$400 is easily in range at the moment. Sub $300 within the next 12 months is likely.

Unless there's a QE 4, lets just say I'm sitting out for a while.

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masterluc
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August 18, 2014, 02:29:57 PM
 #1751

I think here may be a local bounce off this -1 line



Also, triangle break behaviour acts like that



masterluc
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August 18, 2014, 02:37:15 PM
 #1752

And probably most bearish case - triangle, flag or pennant


masterluc
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August 18, 2014, 02:41:02 PM
 #1753

btce  Grin


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August 18, 2014, 02:58:55 PM
 #1754

Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.

Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.

Doom and gloom, baby. Doom and gloom.

The problem with predictions like that is they're almost impossible to falsify... "dramatic selloff" implies a real crash. A new capitulation low. Say, going back to $300, maybe even lower.

Or maybe not. Let's say price is going down another leg, hitting $500, maybe even high $400s. The prediction will "sound" right as well afterwards, or at least some will claim it does (while I would hardly call it "dramatic").

Same for the stock markets. "About to crash", or "entering a longer bear market"? The two are not the same, but a vague enough statement can afterwards be claimed to have "predicted" it.


Good kings all around. Luc has been prescient several times before and we should give him props for that.

In addition, it doesn't take a rocker scientist to suggest stocks are way overbought. And it's entirely possible that if the stock market goes down I a big way that bitcoin could too - although there is no real historical precedent got this.

However, we also should consider, reading over Lucs most recent posts, that there is a certain amount of regional stress he is currently over involving where he resides. This may be causing him to have a less than well rounded and objective view of the current world financial markets.

It seems like doom and bloomers have been around forever and they, for several reasons, will always be.

These are my thoughts also about the case of lucs recent post. But I disagree on one thing, It's rocket scientist, not rocker.

Have to take back this nonsense, sry master, you nailed it.

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masterluc
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August 26, 2014, 05:03:29 PM
 #1755

I see some bullish development on indicators with probability about 30% of reversal to $580-$620 zone in of 1-3 weeks.



More details on confirmation.

I am very cautious with this assertion.

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August 27, 2014, 03:53:58 PM
 #1756

I agree with poster above.I think we will see a slow consolidation for the rest of the year towards ATH.
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August 27, 2014, 06:12:17 PM
 #1757

Question, luc: do you think this is a relevant (bullish) div on daily? (never mind the input = hl2. works with input = close as well.)


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masterluc
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August 29, 2014, 03:36:35 PM
 #1758

Question, luc: do you think this is a relevant (bullish) div on daily? (never mind the input = hl2. works with input = close as well.)
It looks like hidden bullish divergence.

But I don't see confirmation on other oscillators - primary macd. MACD usually shows much accurate divs.

And current formation still looks like a bear flag/pennant.

My version of fall to at least 380 is still has high odds.

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August 29, 2014, 09:40:07 PM
 #1759

Question, luc: do you think this is a relevant (bullish) div on daily? (never mind the input = hl2. works with input = close as well.)
It looks like hidden bullish divergence.

But I don't see confirmation on other oscillators - primary macd. MACD usually shows much accurate divs.

And current formation still looks like a bear flag/pennant.

My version of fall to at least 380 is still has high odds.

And if we see a reversal to the 580-620 zone you mentioned then those odds significantly decrease, correct?
masterluc
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August 29, 2014, 09:48:27 PM
 #1760

If price will stay above 560 (weekly 20 sma) for two weeks I will turn bullish.

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