Analysis

[molecular]

Trend is down. It is possible to see a form of a wedge. For me, these two things combined mean danger.

That's what I thought yesterday (about when you posted). I was afraid it would drop, because that triangle seemed to say so.

And yet I went long (on leverage, even) with a little play money. Closed position 20% in the green.

I'm not saying TA/EW/etc don't apply to Bitcoin. In fact I think they clearly do. But these methods don't claim accuracy to begin with. They are probabilistic in nature.

Both people who completely dismiss and people who stubbornly believe in the "correctness" (in the sense of predictive power) of any type of analytical method towards a market are being ignorant and simple-minded. I don't think anyone here falls into these "radical" categories, so I don't quite understand the anger I sense sometimes.

A finite number of observations of a market not playing out in some certain way cannot be proof that some probabilistic method doesn't have predictive power.

On a side-note: that issue of the "news following the waves" got me thinking. I think there's quite some truth to it.

[2017orso]

It is quite interesting how events materialize at expected timeframes, esp on longer timeframe cycles, kondratief cycle for ex.

Still unsure what to make of masterluc's predicted bear run for these next couple years.

Don't want to just be blinded, but I mean, at this point it just seems absurd.  Anything could happen obv, I'm certainly not betting on it.  Still interesting to read the varied perspectives.

[molecular]

[myself]

It is quite interesting how events materialize at expected timeframes, esp on longer timeframe cycles, kondratief cycle for ex.

Still unsure what to make of masterluc's predicted bear run for these next couple years.

Don't want to just be blinded, but I mean, at this point it just seems absurd.  Anything could happen obv, I'm certainly not betting on it.  Still interesting to read the varied perspectives.

just a small detail for u http://www.calpers.ca.gov/ is the 5th /6th word wide pension fund and they got 1% (LOL) since all the funds like this do relay allot on compounding few more years like this and u have a good scenario for a long time bear market

[2017orso]

It is quite interesting how events materialize at expected timeframes, esp on longer timeframe cycles, kondratief cycle for ex.

Still unsure what to make of masterluc's predicted bear run for these next couple years.

Don't want to just be blinded, but I mean, at this point it just seems absurd.  Anything could happen obv, I'm certainly not betting on it.  Still interesting to read the varied perspectives.

just a small detail for u http://www.calpers.ca.gov/ is the 5th /6th word wide pension fund and they got 1% (LOL) since all the funds like this do relay allot on compounding few more years like this and u have a good scenario for a long time bear market

might be misunderstanding you but I meant his prescribed bear run for bitcoin.

quite clear the markets are going to crash yes.

[Wekkel]

Trend is down. It is possible to see a form of a wedge. For me, these two things combined mean danger.

That's what I thought yesterday (about when you posted). I was afraid it would drop, because that triangle seemed to say so.

And yet I went long

I went long as well, but got out way too early. Anyway, new cards have been dealt. Lets see how she goes attacking $1,000.

[ft73]

Trend is down. It is possible to see a form of a wedge. For me, these two things combined mean danger.

That's what I thought yesterday (about when you posted). I was afraid it would drop, because that triangle seemed to say so.

And yet I went long

I went long as well, but got out way too early. Anyway, new cards have been dealt. Lets see how she goes attacking $1,000.

i dont think well see $1000.... this has all been low volume, built on a few single players market buys. im almost done selling, hope im not wrong.  

We recovered both SMA100 and monthly VWAP.
In-between SMA100 and SMA200 now.
Lucif, will we break SMA200?

Does not look impossible.

EDIT: i mean hourly SMA

[RHCwebhosting]

Didn't Lucif mention a final wave 5 euphoric push to the moon before the bear market starts?

[harlenadler]

Didn't Lucif mention a final wave 5 euphoric push to the moon before the bear market starts?

price movement in China appeared to have ended that possibility

[Rampion]

On a side-note: that issue of the "news following the waves" got me thinking. I think there's quite some truth to it.

I guess our favorite perma-bear Blitz made a very good example. Price action does indeed "unlock" events.

[Rampion]

From another thread:

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

Something to keep in mind.

I'd say that is the opposite. Below a certain volume TA loses effectiveness because large holders can move the market at their will. The bigger the overall volume is, the more difficult for a single entity to significantly move the market.

[Coma]

Didn't Lucif mention a final wave 5 euphoric push to the moon before the bear market starts?

I remember him saying that he sold 80% of his stash at 1.2k and not buying back yet.

[oda.krell]

From another thread:

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

Something to keep in mind.

I'd say that is the opposite. Below a certain volume TA loses effectiveness because large holders can move the market at their will. The bigger the overall volume is, the more difficult for a single entity to significantly move the market.

Loaded is a top 10 bitcoin holder so I would guess he knows some things about this (listed at around 200K bitcoins).

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321265.0

Yeah, thanks for stating the obvious, most here know who loaded is.

Doesn't change the fact that you might well disagree with him on this matter.

Phrased in such a general way ("above some volume, TA is useless") I most certainly disagree, doesn't matter if the guy who says it holds 100 or 100k coins.

It's true, "whales" can initiate (or more accurately: accentuate) market movements, but to get a taste how market behavior by whales can also sometimes just be, well, plain dumb, go read some of rpietila's post history :D (no offense rpietila, I enjoy your new style. keep posting)

[oda.krell]

It's true, "whales" can initiate (or more accurately: accentuate) market movements, but to get a taste how market behavior by whales can also sometimes just be, well, plain dumb, go read some of rpietila's post history (no offense rpietila, I enjoy your new style. keep posting)

Yes, I have read a lot of rpietila's posts. He does not seem to a big enough whale to steer the market market much though. 10K coins (which he stats he has) with 80% in storage makes only 2K trading coins.

The point is a different one, though: trading entirely *against* the market is always a risky proposition. Don't know how long you've been trading, but maybe you'll notice it yourself already: risk appetite is not completely independent of what you have to lose. In other words, I'm pretty sure someone who has 100s of millions of USD on the line is not all just going to bet it on one trade, that would be *incredibly* poor risk control, and most certainly means he/she won't hold that kind of money for long.

Point is: just because you have the money to move the market doesn't mean you'll be inclined to do so if there's a real risk the market will move *against* you after all. Hence: I find it very likely large enough whales accentuate inherent market movements, but the idea that whales yank and pull the market in whatever direction they want to is, IMO, somewhat naive.

[myself]

nice thread derail

[oda.krell]

The point is a different one, though: trading entirely *against* the market is always a risky proposition. Don't know how long you've been trading, but maybe you'll notice it yourself already: risk appetite is not completely independent of what you have to lose. In other words, I'm pretty sure someone who has 100s of millions of USD on the line is not all just going to bet it on one trade, that would be *incredibly* poor risk control, and most certainly means he/she won't hold that kind of money for long.

Point is: just because you have the money to move the market doesn't mean you'll be inclined to do so if there's a real risk the market will move *against* you after all. Hence: I find it very likely large enough whales accentuate inherent market movements, but the idea that whales yank and pull the market in whatever direction they want to is, IMO, somewhat naive.

Yes of course nobody would bet everything on one trade. Thats why they are clever enough to steer the TA-patterns so that the big masses are under their spell, and there is absolutely nothing to do about it. If Loaded or another really big whale decided to stop the price at 1240 at the second peak they could certainly do that. They could certainly also induce the fall and set the bottom price at their wish.

Ah, okay, I see your point now. I also think you're deluded and/or utterly naive, but that's besides the point -- sometimes there's nothing to say between two people rather than "we agree to disagree".

However, your own believes only allow you one rational conclusion: stop trading. You can buy & hold, but since individual participants (that are by and large not subject of the regular TA) "shape" the price anyway, active trading must be pure gambling.

So, are you rational?

[ft73]

nice thread derail

+1

[Tzupy]

On a side-note: that issue of the "news following the waves" got me thinking. I think there's quite some truth to it.

I guess our favorite perma-bear Blitz made a very good example. Price action does indeed "unlock" events.

To me it looks more like insiders delaying public diffusion of news until their price targets have been met.
Otherwise, it's quite odd for news to follow waves (price movements).

[wasubii]

Well i was wrong, as always, trend reversed again minutes after my post  Luckily i bought again at $750 in time and have made a nice 45 BTC profit from this trade.

BTC45 profit is v nice - may i ask what your working capital is?

[ft73]

Pushing again onto SMA200, will it break through?
Lacking volume, but who knows...