rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[JayJuanGee]

I'm afraid that the next bull market will not begin until after we capitulate. This bear market is like a living breathing thing hell bent on getting me to fold and will not stop until I do. It's like it's after me personally.

The hardest part to deal with is that it's my fault. If I had sold more near the top, I could have used the capital to generate additional income so that I could easily and happily be buying more now, not caring if the price goes up or down.

I tell myself that if I survive this bear market I will do it better next time, but that is a big "IF". Now I'm faced with scrounging for additional income in an oil services town with oil prices crashing and everyone getting laid off.

Hard times make some people tougher and other people corpses, but if I'm going down, I'm going down swinging.

You may be correct about your prediction that there is going to be one more crash; however, I question how you can make such a prediction with such supposed cock-suredness? 

There is NOTHING certain about what is going to happen with BTC prices, and it does NOT matter that there have been crashes in the past and you believe that there is some kind of pattern.  Here, we are dealing with larger volume transactions which may signify that trend reversal has already taken place, and we are getting no more coins below $200. 


The point that I am making here is NOT that I know anything, but I am just criticizing your assertion(s) of certainty, which causes me to believe that you are again talking your book (which you have done so in the past on several occassions). 

I'm not predicting another crash, although it is a possibility. I'm not sure how you inferred that. I think the short-medium term price is likely to rise.

O.k.... BJA... Maybe I am too sensitive or maybe I am reading your language incorrectly; however, the first sentence of your earlier post, that I have bolded above caused me to believe that you were saying that one more crash is necessary before there is a trend reversal... and I am NOT sure about whether that is the case.  It may be the case that we already witnessed as much capitulation as we are going to get and the volume increased and maybe we are on the way to a bull market.  Maybe such a bull market is NOT going to be without its future ups and downs in the BTC price, but maybe also we are NOT going to witness prices in the below $200 range ever again?  I do NOT claim to know for sure, but I thought that your previous post expressed too much certainty regarding what you were suggesting about the necessity for further BTC price capitulation (and I read as crashing below $200 and potentially further).

[rpietila]

Whether there will be a new lowest or not does not matter. Panic sell is never a good idea cause you could almost always sell later at better price when there's a rebound. Those sold at 170 could easily sell at 210 now, and that's more than 20% difference.

You can correlate the indicator "oversold" with the "probability that you would have gotten a better price later" for interesting results. Yet even my nearest people fall for the trap, or "pro" celebrities (newsletter-writer Jason Hommel selling out of his mining juniors at the week of the market crash in 2008).

Even worse type are the people who sheepishy think "they could buy back lower" when selling to the crash. First of all, they cannot. It is the most -EV time to commit such an act. Second, they don't have the balls to do it, even if lower prices did materialize (which of course does happen at times). It is only panic sell combined with self-deception, and nobody is exempted from the temptation.

Personally, I need to go through a balls-of-titanium exercise weekly, that is a mental exercise with the idea of walking through "how would I feel  if I woke up and saw BTC at $75 (it was $150 some time ago, an unthinkable number ) and what should I do?" It is sometimes advisable to sell a little in the midst of a deep crash, but getting yourself in a position where this actually holds true is almost universally a stupid idea, so it should not apply to you, and definitely does not apply to me.

What's so difficult in understanding that BTC falls in the category of investments that are good and brilliant, and +EV, but with such a high probability that you are in the red either temporarily, or just basically lose it all in the end, that you should only invest with the mindset of "seeing it to the river" (the last card, when the winner is not decided by deception, but by who held the upper hand) ?

Why is it that people who were "happy" with $300 some time ago, now suddenly think that the market can sustain half that price (pushing the air-filled ball twice as deep in the water)?

The forces at work may not react immediately, but they will: absorbing new emission now costs half than what it did; my castle can now be sold for half the price I paid for it (rather easy) instead of full price (rather difficult), to still realize a nice gain in BTC, and the amounts involved are huge in context of BTC marketcap, which is tiny.

To stir the pot even more, is there any offers of odds for the bet: "We will not go to $152 ever again" (one week volume-weighted average in major exchanges) ?  

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

Those sold at 170 could easily sell at 210 now, and that's more than 20% difference.

Of course, if they had known at $170 that price would soon stabilize at $210, they could have easily waited. But they did not know it, that is the whole point.

[BitThink]

Those sold at 170 could easily sell at 210 now, and that's more than 20% difference.

Of course, if they had known at $170 that price would soon stabilize at $210, they could have easily waited. But they did not know it, that is the whole point.

What I mean was when there's a panic sell, you can expect a rebound almost for sure. Most people know it but just be too afraid to lose everything or too greedy, thinking they can buy back at lower price soon.

[rpietila]

Those sold at 170 could easily sell at 210 now, and that's more than 20% difference.

Of course, if they had known at $170 that price would soon stabilize at $210, they could have easily waited. But they did not know it, that is the whole point.

Investing is not about knowing where the price is going. (If you know it, you're a manipulator/controller, not investor.)

Instead of knowing the future, there are probabilities concerning immediate future price development. Those can be calculated from historical price series, etc. and one of them is that selling after a large drop is -EV, (ie. stupid).

If you fail to know these probabilities, you are bound to lose, because you make bad trades.

It is quite simple actually. Like Poker, good players know their things. In each hand, if they have only 2% advantage, they beat the house, and consequently, win.

Bad players not only fail to know their stuff, they even fail to acknowledge their existence. Good luck with that, more money for the knowledgeable ones.

Fundamentally I see no reason whatsoever in selling, so the whole debate is painful. In my understanding, Bitcoin is not any weaker, nor its prospects any worse, now, than when it was $300 some days ago. Or perhaps they are, but the difference in EV is certainly less than the difference in price. Therefore I more likely lean on buying, because
1) BTC is relatively better than before, vis-a-vis the other components in my portfolio (assuming they haven't changed during the drop), and
2) BTCs percentage of the portfolio has declined due to the drop.

Sigh.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

Good, good. It's not like I sold. I am accumulating.

[coinits]

Those sold at 170 could easily sell at 210 now, and that's more than 20% difference.

Of course, if they had known at $170 that price would soon stabilize at $210, they could have easily waited. But they did not know it, that is the whole point.

Investing is not about knowing where the price is going. (If you know it, you're a manipulator/controller, not investor.)

Instead of knowing the future, there are probabilities concerning immediate future price development. Those can be calculated from historical price series, etc. and one of them is that selling after a large drop is -EV, (ie. stupid).

If you fail to know these probabilities, you are bound to lose, because you make bad trades.

It is quite simple actually. Like Poker, good players know their things. In each hand, if they have only 2% advantage, they beat the house, and consequently, win.

Bad players not only fail to know their stuff, they even fail to acknowledge their existence. Good luck with that, more money for the knowledgeable ones.

Fundamentally I see no reason whatsoever in selling, so the whole debate is painful. In my understanding, Bitcoin is not any weaker, nor its prospects any worse, now, than when it was $300 some days ago. Or perhaps they are, but the difference in EV is certainly less than the difference in price. Therefore I more likely lean on buying, because
1) BTC is relatively better than before, vis-a-vis the other components in my portfolio (assuming they haven't changed during the drop), and
2) BTCs percentage of the portfolio has declined due to the drop.

Sigh.

Assuming that BTC will always have value the best way to invest is steady buying and through the power of Dollar Cost Averaging (or should I say BTC Cost Averaging?) there will be a good return for the long term investor.

[CCInvestor]

Investing is not about knowing where the price is going. (If you know it, you're a manipulator/controller, not investor.)

Instead of knowing the future, there are probabilities concerning immediate future price development. Those can be calculated from historical price series, etc. and one of them is that selling after a large drop is -EV, (ie. stupid).

If you fail to know these probabilities, you are bound to lose, because you make bad trades.

It is quite simple actually. Like Poker, good players know their things. In each hand, if they have only 2% advantage, they beat the house, and consequently, win.

Bad players not only fail to know their stuff, they even fail to acknowledge their existence. Good luck with that, more money for the knowledgeable ones.

Fundamentally I see no reason whatsoever in selling, so the whole debate is painful. In my understanding, Bitcoin is not any weaker, nor its prospects any worse, now, than when it was $300 some days ago. Or perhaps they are, but the difference in EV is certainly less than the difference in price. Therefore I more likely lean on buying, because
1) BTC is relatively better than before, vis-a-vis the other components in my portfolio (assuming they haven't changed during the drop), and
2) BTCs percentage of the portfolio has declined due to the drop.

Sigh.

Great post man!

Liked your castle purchase at the high but very illiquid, think you will have to discount it sharply to get bitcoin below $500.

Maybe better to take a loan out against it ASAP?

[prophetx]

Investing is not about knowing where the price is going. (If you know it, you're a manipulator/controller, not investor.)

Instead of knowing the future, there are probabilities concerning immediate future price development. Those can be calculated from historical price series, etc. and one of them is that selling after a large drop is -EV, (ie. stupid).

If you fail to know these probabilities, you are bound to lose, because you make bad trades.

It is quite simple actually. Like Poker, good players know their things. In each hand, if they have only 2% advantage, they beat the house, and consequently, win.

Bad players not only fail to know their stuff, they even fail to acknowledge their existence. Good luck with that, more money for the knowledgeable ones.

Fundamentally I see no reason whatsoever in selling, so the whole debate is painful. In my understanding, Bitcoin is not any weaker, nor its prospects any worse, now, than when it was $300 some days ago. Or perhaps they are, but the difference in EV is certainly less than the difference in price. Therefore I more likely lean on buying, because
1) BTC is relatively better than before, vis-a-vis the other components in my portfolio (assuming they haven't changed during the drop), and
2) BTCs percentage of the portfolio has declined due to the drop.

Sigh.

Great post man!

Liked your castle purchase at the high but very illiquid, think you will have to discount it sharply to get bitcoin below $500.

Maybe better to take a loan out against it ASAP?

the castle/manor is nice and has had some good events with bitcoiners, while illiquid it does provide some level of enjoyment from its utilization. unlike say owning some altcoin which is illiquid but also useless.

[CCInvestor]

the castle/manor is nice and has had some good events with bitcoiners, while illiquid it does provide some level of enjoyment from its utilization. unlike say owning some altcoin which is illiquid but also useless.

Altcoins illiquid

Last I checked I can liquidate altcoins with a click of a mouse, real estate however is either selling for heavy discount or waiting half a year and let's not speak of all the talking, travelling, meeting and administration.

The only useless altcoins are those that look most like bitcoin, many however innovate and some are already a lot more useful than bitcoin.

NXT for example allows you to not only save your money better thanks to no inflation, and save it with more certainty thanks to being 1000 times better secured against a 51% attack, but also pay people quicker thanks to 10 times faster secure validations, allows you to also message other accounts fully encrypted, launch or buy assets, sell or buy goods and services, and now even launch your own crypto. 

[CCInvestor]

bump

[Cassandra_PR]

[]
the castle/manor is nice and has had some good events with bitcoiners, while illiquid it does provide some level of enjoyment from its utilization. unlike say owning some altcoin which is illiquid but also useless.

It's not so much real estate being illiquid, but properties like "the castle" (a huge derelict building in the middle of nowhere) being illiquid.  It's a white elephant, and requires a very specific and rare buyer.  It's sort of like trying to sell an old 707 - a spectacular thing, would cost billions to reproduce, but good luck finding a buyer.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

[]
the castle/manor is nice and has had some good events with bitcoiners, while illiquid it does provide some level of enjoyment from its utilization. unlike say owning some altcoin which is illiquid but also useless.

It's not so much real estate being illiquid, but properties like "the castle" (a huge derelict building in the middle of nowhere) being illiquid.  It's a white elephant, and requires a very specific and rare buyer.  It's sort of like trying to sell an old 707 - a spectacular thing, would cost billions to reproduce, but good luck finding a buyer.

Only in Bitcoinland

[rpietila]

I don't want to keep you, friends, in the darkness concerning the plans on the castle.

- It will be sold if and only if Bitcoin goes low enough that there is no demand for the conference services (even the richest bitcoiners not being interested in coming there).
- If it is sold, the price of bitcoin will have declined so low, that I make a great profit measured in bitcoins regardless of the fiat price.
- Therefore, the fiat price is so low (could be even half of my purchase price, ie. less than what my parkside city apartment in Helsinki downtown is fetching) that it's possible to sell quick.

[prophetx]

the castle/manor is nice and has had some good events with bitcoiners, while illiquid it does provide some level of enjoyment from its utilization. unlike say owning some altcoin which is illiquid but also useless.

Altcoins illiquid

Last I checked I can liquidate altcoins with a click of a mouse, real estate however is either selling for heavy discount or waiting half a year and let's not speak of all the talking, travelling, meeting and administration.

The only useless altcoins are those that look most like bitcoin, many however innovate and some are already a lot more useful than bitcoin.

NXT for example allows you to not only save your money better thanks to no inflation, and save it with more certainty thanks to being 1000 times better secured against a 51% attack, but also pay people quicker thanks to 10 times faster secure validations, allows you to also message other accounts fully encrypted, launch or buy assets, sell or buy goods and services, and now even launch your own crypto. 

first of all I said "some".

please if you own say 20% of all Mastercoins, good luck with that "click of a mouse" liquidation plan.

NXT is down like what 80% or more from it's high... that's a great savings plan.

Please, I don't mean to offend, but try, please try to use logic when evaluating whether to share a statement with others.

have a nice day

[rpietila]

Altcoins illiquid

Some altcoins may be reasonably liquid if you exchange tiny amounts only. Even $1000 is a big sum for many alts, resulting in slippage.

In other transfers, such as gold, everything below 1 oz (~$1500) incurs extra cost, with 1 oz coins the commission is 1.5-2%, and does not change no matter how large deals you want.

Real estate is both non-fungible, and expensive to trade commissionwise. It is obviously not the component in your portfolio that is fire-sold in the Scenario A

[prophetx]

i like to look at old prediction posts and see how they came up.  I like this one.

btw the original post for the cross posted thread here did say dont expect 5k for another 3-4 years.  which i agree with.  i always thought if it hit $1000+ by 2015 it could reach $5000 by 2020.

DanV: Former Qualified Financial Adviser. Part-Time Forex, Equities & Option Trader and Mentor.



https://www.tradingview.com/u/DanV/

"This pattern could have a final leg down, which would very likely induce overwhelming emotions of despair as it sinks to the ~$200 level.

Again, the $200 zone is AB=CD measured move target and another Fib confluence. As you all know, I am relatively cautious and, hence, $200 would be good enough for me. However, EW guidelines suggest that upon completion of a bullish cycle, the retracement takes us back to the vicinity of wave 4 (at one cycle degree lower). That, in fact, is in the area of $120!

Now, I know this might be very annoying and incomprehensible to Bulls, and others who follow "Fundamentals" very keenly. I cannot say right now which of these targets will be achieved, but it is sufficient to note that, irrespective of if we reverse at $600 (or even $800), we are in a bearish cycle, and a move of the low does not support a new Bullish cycle." -DanV

Another institutional analyst falls victim to the bitcoin badger.
Anyone who listened to DanV, got burnt. Badly.

[Spjuth]

I'm afraid that the next bull market will not begin until after we capitulate. This bear market is like a living breathing thing hell bent on getting me to fold and will not stop until I do. It's like it's after me personally.

The hardest part to deal with is that it's my fault. If I had sold more near the top, I could have used the capital to generate additional income so that I could easily and happily be buying more now, not caring if the price goes up or down.

I tell myself that if I survive this bear market I will do it better next time, but that is a big "IF". Now I'm faced with scrounging for additional income in an oil services town with oil prices crashing and everyone getting laid off.

Hard times make some people tougher and other people corpses, but if I'm going down, I'm going down swinging.

When in hard times, remember your own words. "I don't care about the busts. I am riding this pig wherever it takes me. If it tanks, I'll have a helluva story to tell. I'm sick of half measures. I'm swinging for the fences and If I strike out, so be it.  I won't be some mediocre drone living a life of quiet desperation. I believe in bitcoin and I'm going for broke, knowing the risks. "

I live by them, so should you. That post has ment more to me than anything else. When people have told me that I'm an idiot that don't sell, I tell them "I'm riding this pig wherever it takes me."

I thank you for those words and the inspiration it has given me. It has kept me calm during the last three and a half years and have been my own motto in hard times like now.

[sgbett]

I know have an overwhelming urge to buy this t-shirt!

[rpietila]

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.