farfiman
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Merit: 1001
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January 20, 2015, 11:51:18 AM |
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"Sorry, this product is sold out and will not be restocked. Feel free to rage quietly, or buy some other cool products."
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"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians." Martin Armstrong
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smooth
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Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
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January 20, 2015, 11:54:25 AM |
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A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".
I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.
You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.
Reminds me of Bitcoin Island
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mmitech
Legendary
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Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
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January 20, 2015, 04:11:47 PM |
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A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".
I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.
You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.
Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay"
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myworkaccount
Newbie
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Activity: 13
Merit: 0
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January 20, 2015, 05:12:25 PM |
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A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".
I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.
You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.
Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay" forum reading 101: He's talking about EV decisions ( expected value)
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Warren Buffert
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January 20, 2015, 05:15:38 PM |
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A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".
I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.
You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.
Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay" forum reading 101: He's talking about EV decisions ( expected value) Oh, so the imaginary value EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.
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myworkaccount
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Activity: 13
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January 20, 2015, 05:20:21 PM |
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Oh, so the imaginary value EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin. Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market? If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change.
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riiiiising
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January 20, 2015, 05:35:44 PM |
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Oh, so the imaginary value EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin. Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market? If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change. The expected value of a poker hand can be determined using factors such as pot size, players, and probability. Those are objective measures. Warren is saying that it doesn't apply to bitcoin, because there are no objective measures to pull to come up with a proper EV. That is how EV works. You can't just say.. there is VC investment in some third party exchanges and more stores are accepting bitcoin, so that means it has positive EV. That's just an optimistic guess... not EV.
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BldSwtTrs
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Activity: 861
Merit: 1010
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January 20, 2015, 06:00:25 PM |
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A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".
I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.
You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.
Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay" Price is not the same as value. Bitcoin's value is juge, bitcoin's price is temporary depleted.
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BldSwtTrs
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Activity: 861
Merit: 1010
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January 20, 2015, 06:05:00 PM Last edit: January 20, 2015, 06:18:34 PM by BldSwtTrs |
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Oh, so the imaginary value EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin. Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market? If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change. The expected value of a poker hand can be determined using factors such as pot size, players, and probability. Those are objective measures. Warren is saying that it doesn't apply to bitcoin, because there are no objective measures to pull to come up with a proper EV. That is how EV works. You can't just say.. there is VC investment in some third party exchanges and more stores are accepting bitcoin, so that means it has positive EV. That's just an optimistic guess... not EV. EV calculations don't solely involved accurate measures of the various parameters. You often have to put some subjective bayesian inferences in the mix, especially while playing poker. For example you dont know the other player's hand, you have to give him a hand range, and you adjust the probability of him having a given hand based chiefly on bayesian inferences.
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79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX
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Activity: 660
Merit: 101
Colletrix - Bridging the Physical and Virtual Worl
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January 20, 2015, 07:08:20 PM |
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Argue about semantics all you want, but make sure not to miss OP's two important wealth management insights (otherwise why do you come here in the first place): 1. Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money. You don't constantly trade in-out your land. 2. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.
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Flatulenters
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Activity: 71
Merit: 16
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January 20, 2015, 07:56:33 PM |
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The expected value of a poker hand can be determined using factors such as pot size, players, and probability. Those are objective measures. Warren is saying that it doesn't apply to bitcoin, because there are no objective measures to pull to come up with a proper EV.
That is how EV works. You can't just say.. there is VC investment in some third party exchanges and more stores are accepting bitcoin, so that means it has positive EV. That's just an optimistic guess... not EV.
Fundamentals(statisticated) and TA could be considered objective measurements. But I don't agree with your opinion that you need objective measurements for EV calculations in the first place. If I had to purchase a hooker and one would look like you, the other like Penelope Cruz. I would estimate my EV is greater with the Penelope Cruz lookalike. But beauty, hotness,... is not a objective measurement.
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mmitech
Legendary
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Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
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January 20, 2015, 08:14:02 PM |
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A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".
I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.
You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.
Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay" forum reading 101: He's talking about EV decisions ( expected value) It just depends who you are asking, in this particular case the EV is much lower...got it ? this is why we rely on the price.
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rpietila (OP)
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Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
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January 20, 2015, 10:04:20 PM |
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mmitech, you are still banned from the thread for your past crimes, even if you behave well now. Repentance is required for the ban to be lifted.
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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jnada
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January 21, 2015, 03:59:38 PM |
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Dear R Pietila,
I have been spending a lots of time recently on biggest forum thread about BTC / USD trends got exhausted after enormous level of trolling and FUD spreaded there, and luckily after discovering this thread I have to say: thank you for creating it and keeping appropriate level of discussion.
Thank you again and let me tip you small (right now) amount of BTC regarding your work.
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NEM NEM NEM launch on 22nd November 2014 ! TAQDPC-BT35MC-YAWTKQ-OFEZOS-CMBKHM-F5Q3L6-YEYL
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madmat
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Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
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January 21, 2015, 04:21:25 PM |
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Dear R Pietila,
I have been spending a lots of time recently on biggest forum thread about BTC / USD trends got exhausted after enormous level of trolling and FUD spreaded there, and luckily after discovering this thread I have to say: thank you for creating it and keeping appropriate level of discussion.
Thank you again and let me tip you small (right now) amount of BTC regarding your work.
Tipping a guy who has around 10,000 coins!!! Avoid to tip below 10btc.
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madmat
Legendary
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Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
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January 21, 2015, 04:27:35 PM |
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bullshit, he doesn't own that much of BTC.... and I think he never did.
mmitech, you are still banned from the thread for your past crimes, even if you behave well now. Repentance is required for the ban to be lifted.
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mmitech
Legendary
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Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
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January 21, 2015, 04:47:15 PM |
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bullshit, he doesn't own that much of BTC.... and I think he never did.
mmitech, you are still banned from the thread for your past crimes, even if you behave well now. Repentance is required for the ban to be lifted.
So, this is your answer?...cool, what ever makes you happy
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madmat
Legendary
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Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
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January 21, 2015, 04:55:33 PM |
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bullshit, he doesn't own that much of BTC.... and I think he never did.
mmitech, you are still banned from the thread for your past crimes, even if you behave well now. Repentance is required for the ban to be lifted.
So, this is your answer?...cool, what ever makes you happy I don't know exactly how many coins Risto has, and i don't attach any importance to this. I like to read him, and i prefer this thread to the trolly wall observer, so i read this thread.
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jnada
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January 21, 2015, 05:10:00 PM |
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Tipping a guy who has around 10,000 coins!!! Avoid to tip below 10btc. Obviously it's more about symbolic appreciation then real money deal. Simply, most of his predictions have been fulfilled in real world, and honestly I feel myself bad founding his works so late.
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NEM NEM NEM launch on 22nd November 2014 ! TAQDPC-BT35MC-YAWTKQ-OFEZOS-CMBKHM-F5Q3L6-YEYL
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sporket
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January 21, 2015, 05:13:23 PM |
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... Simply, most of his predictions have been fulfilled in real world, and honestly I feel myself bad founding his works so late.
If you ignore all of his price predictions *But don't, they're hilarious.
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