rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[farfiman]

I know have an overwhelming urge to buy this t-shirt!

"Sorry, this product is sold out and will not be restocked. Feel free to rage quietly, or buy some other cool products."

[smooth]

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Reminds me of Bitcoin Island

[mmitech]

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay"

[myworkaccount]

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay"

forum reading 101: He's talking about EV decisions (expected value)

[Warren Buffert]

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay"

forum reading 101: He's talking about EV decisions (expected value)

Oh, so the imaginary value EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.

[myworkaccount]

Oh, so the imaginary value EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.

Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market?

If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change.

[riiiiising]

Oh, so the imaginary value EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.

Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market?

If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change.

The expected value of a poker hand can be determined using factors such as pot size, players, and probability. Those are objective measures. Warren is saying that it doesn't apply to bitcoin, because there are no objective measures to pull to come up with a proper EV.

That is how EV works. You can't just say.. there is VC investment in some third party exchanges and more stores are accepting bitcoin, so that means it has positive EV. That's just an optimistic guess... not EV.

[BldSwtTrs]

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay"

Price is not the same as value. Bitcoin's value is juge, bitcoin's price is temporary depleted.

[BldSwtTrs]

Oh, so the imaginary value EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.

Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market?

If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change.

The expected value of a poker hand can be determined using factors such as pot size, players, and probability. Those are objective measures. Warren is saying that it doesn't apply to bitcoin, because there are no objective measures to pull to come up with a proper EV.

That is how EV works. You can't just say.. there is VC investment in some third party exchanges and more stores are accepting bitcoin, so that means it has positive EV. That's just an optimistic guess... not EV.

EV calculations don't solely involved accurate measures of the various parameters. You often have to put some subjective bayesian inferences in the mix, especially while playing poker.

For example you dont know the other player's hand, you have to give him a hand range, and you adjust the probability of him having a given hand based chiefly on bayesian inferences.

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

Argue about semantics all you want, but make sure not to miss OP's two important wealth management insights (otherwise why do you come here in the first place):

1.

Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money. You don't constantly trade in-out your land.

2.

Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

[Flatulenters]

The expected value of a poker hand can be determined using factors such as pot size, players, and probability. Those are objective measures. Warren is saying that it doesn't apply to bitcoin, because there are no objective measures to pull to come up with a proper EV.

That is how EV works. You can't just say.. there is VC investment in some third party exchanges and more stores are accepting bitcoin, so that means it has positive EV. That's just an optimistic guess... not EV.

Fundamentals(statisticated) and TA could be considered objective measurements. But I don't agree with your opinion that you need objective measurements for EV calculations in the first place.
If I had to purchase a hooker and one would look like you, the other like Penelope Cruz. I would estimate my EV  is greater with the Penelope Cruz lookalike. But beauty, hotness,... is not a objective measurement.

[mmitech]

A friend of mine had a hard time understanding Bitcoin. He owns quite many, but is plagued with inane -EV concepts of daytrading, such as panic selling, and "buying back lower".

I just told him: "Bitcoin. It's like land. If someone offers you less for your land than what it's worth, you just give a hardly-noticeable smile and wave him away." Land is not to be sold. Unless you need the money.

You don't constantly trade in-out your land. Same: Just don't sell your bitcoins.

Economic 101: "your item is only worth what the best bidder is willing to pay"

forum reading 101: He's talking about EV decisions (expected value)

It just depends who you are asking, in this particular case the EV is much lower...got it ? this is why we rely on the price.

[rpietila]

mmitech, you are still banned from the thread for your past crimes, even if you behave well now. Repentance is required for the ban to be lifted.

[jnada]

Dear R Pietila,

I have been spending a lots of time recently on biggest forum thread about BTC / USD trends got exhausted after enormous level of trolling and FUD spreaded there, and luckily  after discovering this thread I have to say: thank you for creating it and keeping appropriate   level of discussion.

Thank you again and let me tip you small (right now) amount of BTC regarding your work.

[madmat]

Dear R Pietila,

I have been spending a lots of time recently on biggest forum thread about BTC / USD trends got exhausted after enormous level of trolling and FUD spreaded there, and luckily  after discovering this thread I have to say: thank you for creating it and keeping appropriate   level of discussion.

Thank you again and let me tip you small (right now) amount of BTC regarding your work.

Tipping a guy who has around 10,000 coins!!!    Avoid to tip below 10btc. 

[madmat]

bullshit, he doesn't own that much of BTC.... and I think he never did.

mmitech, you are still banned from the thread for your past crimes, even if you behave well now. Repentance is required for the ban to be lifted.

[mmitech]

bullshit, he doesn't own that much of BTC.... and I think he never did.

mmitech, you are still banned from the thread for your past crimes, even if you behave well now. Repentance is required for the ban to be lifted.

So, this is your answer?...cool, what ever makes you happy

[madmat]

bullshit, he doesn't own that much of BTC.... and I think he never did.

mmitech, you are still banned from the thread for your past crimes, even if you behave well now. Repentance is required for the ban to be lifted.

So, this is your answer?...cool, what ever makes you happy

I don't know exactly how many coins Risto has, and i don't attach any importance to this. I like to read him, and i prefer this thread to the trolly wall observer, so i read this thread.

[jnada]

Tipping a guy who has around 10,000 coins!!!   Avoid to tip below 10btc.  

Obviously it's more about symbolic appreciation then real money deal. Simply, most of his predictions  have been fulfilled in real world, and honestly I feel myself bad founding his works so late.

[sporket]

... Simply, most of his predictions  have been fulfilled in real world, and honestly I feel myself bad founding his works so late.

If you ignore all of his price predictions
*But don't, they're hilarious.