rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[220Fast]

And this rise would atract other investors .let's face it. Even 40k/Btc is cheap .sooner or later there will be someone ...

[BitchicksHusband]

According to my research, the average sum a person would invest in bitcoins is $1000. Therefore, 4 million new users are needed in addition to the 1 million current ones to reach $7000.

That seems like a lot to ask for the next 7 months. I think chances are some bigger investment funds are going to have a big impact though.

That is only 25.8% monthly growth in userbase. Which happens to coincide with the long-term slope of the price appreciation curve.

With this adoption growth, without the logistic slowing, we would be at 2 billion people in March, 2017.

My suspicion is before we get anywhere near 2 billion people using bitcoins that there will be factors at play that will dwarf the impact on price arising out of adoption and its use in day-to-day transactions. 

My fear is as the realisation dawns on the bigger players that Bitcoin is 'the one' that it will be pumped by banks and central banks who can magic large sums of fiat into existence with which to buy bitcoin (and who may even dump gold temporarily), creating the ultimate bitcoin megabubble so that billions of latecomer ordinary people and businesses buying their first bitcoins will be shafted as the great bitcoin dump starts, into pms, into land, artwork etc. into a 'better' crypto - assets that had been neglected for the period bitcoin was so attractive, even back into fiat (they could use this point to launch more 'stable' 'new crypto-dollar or new crypto-pound etc.) until bitcoin finds a stable long-term pricepoint well below (even orders of magnitude below) the hyped price the masses bought at.  Problem is of course nobody beforehand can know what this price will be.  We would still be in a much better world than today because with bitcoin established fiats (old or new) will not be that attractive but if central banks are deliberately hyperinflating forcing people into crypto on their pump stage people could end up with 1000th of what they had before.

Btw, I'm only just exploring this idea so please point out if there's an obvious reason this is not how the future looks!

This is why having a plan similar to the SSS plan is so important.  That way, we get our money diversified out as the price rises.  And don't think that just because one set of bankers (say in the US) want to do one thing to bitcoin that they will succeed.  Maybe some Chinese or Russian bankers (or mobsters or oligarchy) will want to do something different.

[SlipperySlope]

It was just example . One smart guy with shitload of money who would buy 2000Btc per day and in few years .....

What would compell such an individual to take risk while already possessing more wealth than he's going to need in the rest of his life?

Using the winklevii as an example. They won $65 million from Mark Zuckerberg. They invested some millions in bitcoin for the adventure. They think big. There are others . . .

[wachtwoord]

It was just example . One smart guy with shitload of money who would buy 2000Btc per day and in few years .....

What would compell such an individual to take risk while already possessing more wealth than he's going to need in the rest of his life?

Using the winklevii as an example. They won $65 million from Mark Zuckerberg. They invested some millions in bitcoin for the adventure. They think big. There are others . . .

True. I don't really get it though.

[SlipperySlope]

Conventional charting wisdom says that a strong resistance trendline, once broken through, becomes a source of support. In the below 3-day resolution chart that illustrates the trendline from the November 2013 peak, I suppose that this line now marks territory that bitcoin prices may never visit again, e.g. sub $400.

[wachtwoord]

Conventional charting wisdom says that a strong resistance trendline, once broken through, becomes a source of support. In the below 3-day resolution chart that illustrates the trendline from the November 2013 peak, I suppose that this line now marks territory that bitcoin prices may never visit again, e.g. sub $400.

But the trendline that functions as support now is forever going down. It won't be long before it crosses zero.

[zimmah]

Conventional charting wisdom says that a strong resistance trendline, once broken through, becomes a source of support. In the below 3-day resolution chart that illustrates the trendline from the November 2013 peak, I suppose that this line now marks territory that bitcoin prices may never visit again, e.g. sub $400.

But the trendline that functions as support now is forever going down. It won't be long before it crosses zero.

correct, but luckily it also crossed a horizontal support line at $508 and it's knocking on the door of the $530 resistance line which is also horizontal.

the next few horizontal resistance lines should be 530, 633, 758 and 913 but i might have missed some in between.

[Dotto]

If we break 630 consistently, the rest would be a doddle. It´s so exciting to watch when in moves like this

[Bitcopia]

Conventional charting wisdom says that a strong resistance trendline, once broken through, becomes a source of support. In the below 3-day resolution chart that illustrates the trendline from the November 2013 peak, I suppose that this line now marks territory that bitcoin prices may never visit again, e.g. sub $400.

But the trendline that functions as support now is forever going down. It won't be long before it crosses zero.

Does this not refer to the point where the trendline was broken? Roughly $440.

Otherwise, we're still talking about a bear market, and this is certainly the signal of the bull.

[SlipperySlope]

Conventional charting wisdom says that a strong resistance trendline, once broken through, becomes a source of support. In the below 3-day resolution chart that illustrates the trendline from the November 2013 peak, I suppose that this line now marks territory that bitcoin prices may never visit again, e.g. sub $400.

But the trendline that functions as support now is forever going down. It won't be long before it crosses zero.

Does this not refer to the point where the trendline was broken? Roughly $440.

Otherwise, we're still talking about a bear market, and this is certainly the signal of the bull.

Agreed. My observation is probably good only for a short period or if there is some news-induced sell off later on.

Because there was a pause at $800 for the month of January, I sort of expect prices to linger there for a while before soaring beyond the previous all time high.

[darlidada]

Dont you guys think there is going to be a small correction ? a small dip ? I want the market to crash so I can buy in!!! Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

[kehtolo]

Dont you guys think there is going to be a small correction ? a small dip ? I want the market to crash so I can buy in!!! Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

Personally, I don't. Maybe a dip to 515-520  but i think we'll inch gradually upwards.. interspersed with spurts with biggish buys pushing the price up a bit.. a slow drift down slightly before it repeats. i think if you get in under 520 you're doing well.

[blatchcorn]

Dont you guys think there is going to be a small correction ? a small dip ? I want the market to crash so I can buy in!!! Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

You have had a good 3 months to buy in the dip. You missed the boat maybe? 

[Todorius]

Dont you guys think there is going to be a small correction ? a small dip ? I want the market to crash so I can buy in!!! Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

Predictions are a probabilistic assumption of future events, what Risto prognosed was a scenario, one of several. It was probably based on a probabilistic model.
It could have happened, but it didn't turn out that way, because bitcoin is not a deterministic system. If it was, there would be lots and lots of millionaires here right now.

Basing your trading decisions on advice from others is not a good strategy in general. Make your own decisions based on thorough research, and then stick to the plan.
That's all the advice I can give you

[chessnut]

Dont you guys think there is going to be a small correction ? a small dip ? I want the market to crash so I can buy in!!! Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

not likely to pass this trend line for a long time, but in the mean time Im expecting a dip to 490-520

[rpietila]

Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

Perhaps you would do better by actually reading what I predicted and when:

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... )

I hope you're prediction is on target, Risto. I have one last large buy to conduct next week and some even cheaper coins would sweeten the pot.  

It is not a troll, it is something that I just found in the charts. Count for yourself. If the pattern continues one moor week, it means that there'll be a capitulation crash this week. And then 7 weeks of going up, all the way to $650.

So my prediction is 650 in the end of June. The crash is optional. The trolls in the other thread did not want to hear the real meaning (as usual).

Chart showing all.

Emphasis original (except the red). The fact that we did not visit sub-400's as scheduled, is itself the strongest possible evidence that the pattern is broken and we are going up. The prediction "650 in the end of June" looks conservative after seeing a few days of nice action.

[darlidada]

Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

Perhaps you would do better by actually reading what I predicted and when

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen!  I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

[kehtolo]

Emphasis original (except the red). The fact that we did not visit sub-400's as scheduled, is itself the strongest possible evidence that the pattern is broken and we are going up. The prediction "650 in the end of June" looks conservative after seeing a few days of nice action.

Says it all to me! The market itself provided the evidence. Not saying another flashcrash cannot happen, but the one Risto was predicting definitely will not happen now, you will need to adjust your buy in point.

[ErisDiscordia]

Imagine if Janet Yellen and the rest of the top brass at the Federal Reserve woke up this morning and suddenly grokked everything there is to know about bitcoin, and decided to buy up as much as they could. They would print up some small sum -- 5-10 billion or so, just pocket change for the Fed -- and buy as many bitcoins as they could. Imagine they could get a significant percentage of all bitcoins -- one million or maybe several million. Can you imagine the long term consequences? I seriously doubt that they would do something that ballsy and smart at the same time. But it would be an interesting scenario!

Sometimes (every second Friday) I think that the main objective of the US gov shutting down Silk Road actually was to get their hands on a large stash of Bitcoins without affecting the market price at all. They got around 130K coins out of that and they still might get several 100K more if they manage to beat the keys out of the Dread Pirate Roberts.

Also interesting to note is that this event was immediately followed by a huge buying spree led by the Chinese - but do we really know whether Chinese individuals or the Chinese government? It might be a logical reaction to the US acquiring such a big stash. As would be their prolonged FUD campaign after the price rose too quickly.

Conspiracy theory stuff this, but well within the realm of possibility I think.

[wachtwoord]

Where is this flashcrash Rpetila predicted lol

Perhaps you would do better by actually reading what I predicted and when

This wasnt intended as a critic at all Rpetila. It's just that I wanted a crash to happen!  I'm with you 100% you know. You are the man here!

I can't stand your nickname though. I keep making typos. When I talk about you with friends, I just call you Reptilia LOL

I started typing Risto (his name) for this very reason