rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[David Latapie]

Furthermore, it is currently a CPU coin, since the 11 hashing algorithms make it difficult to implement for GPU let alone ASIC. These things make it "fair" so that there is no way to amass large stashes except by working for them in the competitive mining or buying in the open market.

Thank you so much for this post rpietila We are glad to have you as a Monero holder.

Monero thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449
Monero website: http://monero.cc
Monero IRC (freenode): #monero, #monero-dev, #monero-otc
Monero improvement proposals: https://github.com/monero-developers/mips

[superresistant]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=400235.msg6915300#msg6915300

How clever your analysis is.

Thank you rpietila for considering Monero as the first altcoin that is worth it.

As you say, MRO is not the cheapest on the market but definitely a strong investment.

You suggest to mine it and you are right.


For everyone, I made a tutorial if you are new to CPU mining :

[ANN][MRO][HOW TO] Install GUI wallet & mine Monero on Windows

[surfer43]

Perhaps these questions would be better addressed in the MRO thread where the devs will be able to answer. Alternatively join freenode #monero or #monero-otc and ask in there.

But the short answer to the GUI question is there is still a bounty for it and also there is a sort of GUI wallet already.

In addition to the bounty, the Boolberry devs are working on a "base GUI" and a "nice GUI" for CryptoNote currencies.

[rpietila]

At the current amount of coin release isn't the ratio closer to 1:2000 bitcoin to monero?

1:166 is only per coin, but we all know a coin is an abstraction and means nothing, the current circulation matters more right?

With <900,000 monero and almost 13,000,000 bitcoin, taking into account and prices, we get a ratio of 1:2000

Let me know if you find issue with the way I worked this one out.

That is absolutely right. But if we talk about long-term, there will be about equal number of BTC and MRO, which in my opinion is more relevant, because all the inflation will dilute the value of your coins.

Let's say you have BTC100 and want to hedge your fortunes. By buying 100 MRO you have an equal % of that coin (strictly speaking it depends how many years into the future you look at and how many BTC were lost in the early days). Buying less or not at all means that you don't consider MRO having credibility (it's OK, I just trashed 270 other coins), buying more means that you feel that MRO has more potential than BTC, and want it to succeed, even at BTC's expense.

[dreamspark]

That is absolutely right. But if we talk about long-term, there will be about equal number of BTC and MRO, which in my opinion is more relevant, because all the inflation will dilute the value of your coins.

Let's say you have BTC100 and want to hedge your fortunes. By buying 100 MRO you have an equal % of that coin (strictly speaking it depends how many years into the future you look at and how many BTC were lost in the early days). Buying less or not at all means that you don't consider MRO having credibility (it's OK, I just trashed 270 other coins), buying more means that you feel that MRO has more potential than BTC, and want it to succeed, even at BTC's expense.

Or you think its going to rise relative to BTC so is a good investment even if you don't want it to succeed more than BTC. As a long term buy, hold and never sell I agree with that but just because it has investment potential doesn't mean you think it will succeed ahead of BTC. In my mind both can succeed together.

[rpietila]

Or you think its going to rise relative to BTC so is a good investment even if you don't want it to succeed more than BTC. As a long term buy, hold and never sell I agree with that but just because it has investment potential doesn't mean you think it will succeed ahead of BTC. In my mind both can succeed together.

I am not here to give short-term investment advice on altcoins. Many people make their living doing that, however.

[virtualfaqs]

BC
is designed a 100% premined pump&dump get-rich-quickly coin, which I did not touch when it was introduced to me in the early days of the first pump. Stay out (unless you like to be on the receiving end).

BC wasn't premined. You may be confusing BC with a different coin.

[dreamspark]

Or you think its going to rise relative to BTC so is a good investment even if you don't want it to succeed more than BTC. As a long term buy, hold and never sell I agree with that but just because it has investment potential doesn't mean you think it will succeed ahead of BTC. In my mind both can succeed together.

I am not here to give short-term investment advice on altcoins. Many people make their living doing that, however.

I agree. Alts have been kind to me but in the crypto space even a year or two can be considered a long term investment if you look at the long term survival rate of alts.

[pandher]

QCN is the far superior choice with less risk and much greater upside potential to MRO.

Do you know a little truth? QCN dev tried to relaunch Monero. Yes, launched Monero again with the same name because he said Monero is not fair (More like he couldn't mine enough). He changed name to Quazar after strong resistance from the community. Now that thread has been deleted by him.

Hope everyone stays away for Quazar

[surfer43]

Hope everyone stays away for Quazar

I second this, it is a clonecoin with no potential or development. Before it hit Poloniex it was worth 50x less.

[tupelo]

I cannot see any sane investor seriously considering any of the current altcoins as anything different than a very risky gamble. Investing more than 40% of your funds into ALTS is only for ponzi masters, serious manipulators and the adrenaline junkies among the bitcoin geeks.

[rpietila]

I cannot see any sane investor seriously considering any of the current altcoins as anything different than a very risky gamble. Investing more than 40% of your funds into ALTS is only for ponzi masters, serious manipulators and the adrenaline junkies among the bitcoin geeks.

I am investing <<1%

[dreamspark]

I cannot see any sane investor seriously considering any of the current altcoins as anything different than a very risky gamble. Investing more than 40% of your funds into ALTS is only for ponzi masters, serious manipulators and the adrenaline junkies among the bitcoin geeks.

I am investing <<1%

+1 a little more than that but why do you presume sane investors are diversifying 40% into a single alt. That makes no sense.

[drawingthesun]

QCN is the far superior choice with less risk and much greater upside potential to MRO.

Do you know a little truth? QCN dev tried to relaunch Monero. Yes, launched Monero again with the same name because he said Monero is not fair (More like he couldn't mine enough). He changed name to Quazar after strong resistance from the community. Now that thread has been deleted by him.

Hope everyone stays away for Quazar

If so, is that why are  there only 90,000 Quazar coins in existence?  How many Moneros......exactly!  Quazar also has a much flatter coin distribution curve as in the coin issuance is at a much slower rate than MRO.  MRO mkcap 3 million, QCN mkcap 250,000.  All for the same or better features.  You decide which coin has more upside.  The one that already went up 800%, or the one about to....easy choice.

At first sight the uninformed would agree with you, QCN seems like the cheaper deal, better buy now to secure a bigger slice of the pie.

Except the market needs a clear leader, every clone will not match the leaders pie, and you're wealth may not come no matter how large your slice is.

MRO is the market leader, has active development and progressing at a fast pace.

Of course the QCN and others will want to advertise to investors that they will someday have the same upside, I am unsure about that.


Current market caps:

MRO ($3,000,000)
QCN ($250,000)

You invest $1,000:

You own 0.033% of MRO.
You own 0.4% of QCN.

If one day both QCN and MRO are worth $10,000,000 then you will have around about $40,000 in QCN or $3,000 in MRO.

Obviously QCN is the better choice. However if MRO replaces Darkcoin and QCN just becomes the Litecoin to MRO we'll have a different outcome:

Litecoin is worth 5% of Bitcoin.

So if Monero is worth $100,000,000 in this example QCN would be worth $5,000,000

Your amount of MRO is worth $33,000.

Your amount of QCN is worth $20,000.

Anyway, don't invest more than you can afford to lose!

**Also remember that the QCN calculation is super super optimal for them, because they are not releasing coin that slowly, eventually the supply will not be so small. So that scenario is my best case for long term QCN.

[drawingthesun]

I cannot see any sane investor seriously considering any of the current altcoins as anything different than a very risky gamble. Investing more than 40% of your funds into ALTS is only for ponzi masters, serious manipulators and the adrenaline junkies among the bitcoin geeks.

I am investing <<1%

Haha I wonder how much that is for you? :p

[rpietila]

I cannot see any sane investor seriously considering any of the current altcoins as anything different than a very risky gamble. Investing more than 40% of your funds into ALTS is only for ponzi masters, serious manipulators and the adrenaline junkies among the bitcoin geeks.

I am investing <<1%

+1 a little more than that but why do you presume sane investors are diversifying 40% into a single alt. That makes no sense.

You're right. Are you implying that I have presumed it some way? 

[dreamspark]

I cannot see any sane investor seriously considering any of the current altcoins as anything different than a very risky gamble. Investing more than 40% of your funds into ALTS is only for ponzi masters, serious manipulators and the adrenaline junkies among the bitcoin geeks.

I am investing <<1%

+1 a little more than that but why do you presume sane investors are diversifying 40% into a single alt. That makes no sense.

You're right. Are you implying that I have presumed it some way? 

Apologies I should have made it clear rather than just quoting the post. I was referring to the user referring to investing 40%.

[drawingthesun]

I cannot see any sane investor seriously considering any of the current altcoins as anything different than a very risky gamble. Investing more than 40% of your funds into ALTS is only for ponzi masters, serious manipulators and the adrenaline junkies among the bitcoin geeks.

I am investing <<1%

+1 a little more than that but why do you presume sane investors are diversifying 40% into a single alt. That makes no sense.

You're right. Are you implying that I have presumed it some way? 

dreamspark replying to both you and tupelo at the same time. :p

[AlexGR]

Darkcoin started  life as xcoin on January 18th with 80mil max coins then was  re-branded Xcoin XCO, then later to Darkcoin and max supply reduced to 22mil.
The dev is very sorry that he sits on 2 million instamined coins because the block rewards were "erroneously" set to 500 instead of 50. Currently 4.3mil are mined.
No Windows-qt or Mac wallet on launch and no pools.
Early google searches of "Darkcoin", lead you to a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT coin with a total coin count of something like 100,000,000,000,000,000 units and an abandoned thread.
Darkcoin fraudulently claims to be the first anonymous coin, it is not, Bytecoin is it for 2 years already.
https://bytecoin.org/about-privacy.php

How a coin with this parameters can rise as it did is nothing short of astonishing. Will Monero archive something similar with no pre-mine and better anonymity than Darkcoin?

There is too much FUD re: darkcoin and these parameters are in error - so that's why it doesn't make sense when you have false information.

1. The first 1.7mn coins or so were "instamined" in the sense of fast block rewards and problematic difficult retargeting.
2. Those mining were mostly linux miners - which are the vast majority of miners anyway (not mac or win users)
3. The instamined coins were being sold for 10.000 DRKs per 0.25 BTC as people who are given coins abundantly do not really value them. Two weeks later, when it hit the exchanges, DRK was trading for 0.00001 - 0.000025 BTC. Charts are available on ccex.com / poloniex.com (that added DRK a bit later at 0.00008). This altered the initial distribution completely from miners to buyers.
4. The coin limit was capped by community consent and vote (>100 votes) like 2 months after.
5. The instamine and consequent distribution to buyers had a positive effect in inflation as the debasement rate was far smaller than other coins. Right now DRK is giving out 2880 coins per day, vs 28.800 of LTC vs 3600 of BTC.
6. Darkcoin is one of the few coins that actually has a dev that codes stuff. Most coins have big dev teams that code nothing and pretend to be "a great dev team". Darkcoin dev, alone, has produced X11 (favorite hashing algorithm of 2014), DGW3 for block retargeting, Masternode payments and DarkSend. Everyone who can't code $hit, expects to clone Evan's work when it is opensourced (DarkSend) - as for the other stuff, they are already in use in over 25 coins.

Regarding the rise: Note that if just 1-10% of all market transactions will happen private/anonymously, something that Bitcoin won't be covering due to regulatory compliance, then private/anonymous coins can share between them something north of 70-700mn market cap. I had pointed this earlier in the the thread, prior to DRK rising, but nobody paid attention.

As for Monero: It's a Bytecoin clone - which was the first cryptonote innovator of the field (2012). However, since Bytecoin surfaced on 2014 from the deep web, it was said "ah, you had 80% premine" (because most mining had already been done when the public learned about them). MRO stole/repackaged Bytecoin's code and said "we are offering a fair Bytecoin". The Bytecoin ecosystem is problematic for investment due to the first coin being a 80% preminer and the clones being clones who can't even make a decent GUI on top of the backend to increase useability. Personally I hold some MROs as a hedge to DRK but I do not really trust the development course.

As time goes by, more and more altcoins are eroding away bitcoin shares in the total crypto currency realm. DRK is getting interesting at this moment.

Is it reasonable to have a altcoin factor put into the price forecast algorithm?

Good Point about DRK and something I was about to ask about here.. Someone said only way to buy DRK is with BTC? And there is a BIG Pump and Dump going on right now with DRK..  Could that be a big part of what is driving BTC up right now?? If so, scary and seems pretty thin ice..

1. Altcoins have not really gained relative to BTC in the last months. They still account for only 9% of the total market cap. If this number rises to more than 20%, I would start to consider them. Otherwise no need.

There is a reasoning fallacy in that altcoins are grouped together in terms of marketcap. This is not the stock market where you can buy the index (and all associated stocks). You pick the alt due to certain prospects that other alts do not have. Is it a clone / shitcoin / that offers nothing new or useful? => Discarded. Is it something that offers something and has potential? => You can consider it.

Altcoins, especially after the appearance of DOGE, have gone full retard in generating all kind of coins with no fundamentals (aka shitcoins). Those who offered something new/different etc made it to top25 of coinmarketcap.

[zimmah]

I cannot see any sane investor seriously considering any of the current altcoins as anything different than a very risky gamble. Investing more than 40% of your funds into ALTS is only for ponzi masters, serious manipulators and the adrenaline junkies among the bitcoin geeks.

I am investing <<1%

i'm oinvesting processing power.

Seems my computer can do 144H/s which seems to be quite a lot. Not sure how much profit that will bring daily, but it may be worth it. I'll decide after a week or so if i should continue mining them or not.