rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Anotheranonlol]

My take on altcoins

As my readers have noticed, I am not a big fan of altcoins. I have a distaste for the concept that enriches quacks and dumpers, I have never seen much long-term viability in them, and I have little time compared to money, and following the pump-and-dumps that all altcoins (as well as Bitcoin!) are prone to, would take far too much time compared to the meager gains achievable in the illiquid markets. I don't even trade Bitcoin except the major swings, and those only with a fraction of my holdings.

It has not gone unnoticed in the altcoin circles that I would be a great marketing asset, but I have declined all offers until now. The reason is that the coins have been bad, obvious pump and dumps, and even though I would have made some gains participating in them, my readers would have likely made a loss, and not only is that an unrighteous way to make money, I don't even need it, since I believe in the long-term success of crypto, and of Bitcoin, and have enough of them to take care of all my needs in the future.

The classical altcoins do not offer anything relative to Bitcoin, except maybe a different hashing algorithm. An important thing to remember is that there is no long-term market niche for two coins with the same algo. The hashing power of the larger coin is constantly threatening to destroy the smaller one. Even if that does not happen, there are network effects in play that favor the larger coin and suppress the smaller.

The 2.0 coins are in development and offer interesting new features. These coins tend to be fully premined, though. It would be more prudent to call them "shares". I have started many companies so that in the beginning I own all the shares, and I try to raise money and enlarge the ownership by offering them to the public. There is nothing wrong with that, but it is not a way to distribute these wide enough for them to ever function as a currency. It is akin to monetizing your ideas, generating value out of nothing, and I believe these coins are doomed to fail for this reason alone, not to mention that as startups, their failure rate is anyway 70-90%.

A new category that has just surfaced in 2014, are the privacy-enhanced coins. Although these are new, and much development is needed and is going on, the value proposal is appealing: unlike Bitcoin, which I believe is already well analyzed so that the enemies of privacy can attribute a name to most of the large addresses, these coins can offer true privacy and anonymous holdings and transactions. Not all of them, and not perhaps yet, but the potential is there. They are also seeing some price action.

Please consult the Cryptocurrency market cap when reading on. Note that I am comparing the prices relative to BTC only, so most of the coins may make gains in dollar terms even though I am bearish on them in BTC terms, once the next BTC bubble comes.

LTC
is the leading scrypt coin. On the one hand, the emergence of scrypt ASICs may provide a support to LTC's stagnating price (like SHA256 ASIC's did to Bitcoin in early 2013), on the other, it may be that they are just used to mine whatever is the most profitable coin to sell, and the proceeds are used to buy BTC. Typically LTC shoots up at the late stage of a BTC bubble. Therefore I am bearish on LTC just now, but it might be a buy when it hits 0.01, in anticipation of a leveraged rally with BTC.

DRK
This coin is centralized to be mined by masternodes. I have also heard that the developer of this coin is misrepresenting the truth concerning premine, and that he holds 2 million coins (out of 4.3M). This is a reason to be very cautious. Also DRK is in no way cheap, and there is not yet much use for it, so it is all marketing and speculation. I would not buy it now, as I did not when it was 10 times cheaper.

NXT
is 100% premined to a few executives in the beginning. It is a startup, and not a currency, and I don't believe it will ever be. Invest accordingly.

DOGE
is one of the 2 coins (other was AUR) where I saw some merit. This was when it had just come, at 35s. Now I believe it is in a terminal decline, since there are no markets for all-around coins except BTC. A further threat is that DOGE's inflation is quickly slowing, making its network very vulnerable. I advice to sell out on this one.

XRP
is pronounced crooked by a few of its developers, who have recently left the company. Even though there never was any reason to buy those, selling them is my advice if you have any.

MSC
100% premine. I have to admit that I don't know much that they are doing, but I have little belief that this coin can beat BTC in value appreciation, and there is a high risk that it will just fail. If you ever need MSC for any purpose, just buy it then.

BC
is designed a 100% premined pump&dump get-rich-quickly coin, which I did not touch when it was introduced to me in the early days of the first pump. Stay out (unless you like to be on the receiving end).

QRK
is also a secretly premined coin, which I believe is already in a terminal decline after the original pump was successful.

XPM
is surprisingly pricey still. Don't buy it.

AUR
Even though I was interested in this before the great pump in March (and would have made up to 100x gains if I had bought), now it is in a "following" mode after crashing back. If I moved to Iceland, I would probably start using it. Not an unconditional "sell" though.

MRO (Monero)
Okay, there was a reason why I wrote on alts. Cause I have just made my first altcoin investment ever! Monero has a trait which pretty much all other alts lack: slow and geometrically decreasing issuance. At present, only 5% of MRO is mined, and even after 4 years there will still be 20% left to be mined. There is no premine, and the community consists of several people Furthermore, it is at least currently a CPU coin, since the hashing algorithm is designed to make it difficult to implement for GPU let alone ASIC. These things make it "fair" so that there is no way to amass large stashes except by working for them in the competitive mining or buying in the open market.

The market for the coin is very active and extremely liquid. There was an OTC market in the beginning. MRO was listed in Poloniex 5 days ago and the reception has been good. It has been the most traded coin ever since despite having a market cap of only 1-3 M$! Up to 10% of the outstanding MRO changes hands daily in Poloniex, mitigating the extreme volatility that is plaguing many alts with concentrated ownership.

And now comes the main point: The coin has a feature, which is not implementable in Bitcoin - privacy! It is called CryptoNote, and means that all transactions are mixed in a protocol level. This is imo the most advanced privacy that is currently found in crypto universe, although I am sure that some disagree and let them teach me how I am wrong

The coin is probably circulating quite widely already. New mining is about 30kMRO per day (BTC180), which is about $100k (!) and the price is rising (despite that). This is not a pump and dump coin, because the inflation takes care that new coins are constantly coming to the market. A word of warning though - the market cap may seem lucratively small, but the total issuance of MRO is 20 times the current, which is a little less than that of BTC. Therefore it is easy to compare the relative valuations by just comparing the prices. At 0.006 BTC currently, MRO is not the cheapest coin around (1:166 of BTC). I would advice to not buy hastily, and not participate in bubbles (if any). Mining is also an option.

This is the first altcoin I bought, and I did it during the time when it had been listed in the exchange. My relative position is less than in BTC though, so if only one remains, I would still do better if it is BTC

ADD: Relative position means: (my holding)/(total issuance).

Agree with your views on MRO. Also agree with BC, DRK, XPM, QRK, DOGE NXT, LTC but disagree with AUR.

I don't want to turn this thread into altcoin-pump thread where people promote their own holdings, which in altcoin world is traditionally bitcoin copy pastes with a little marketing gimmick pushed by those that missed the btc train (e.g drk and coinjoin).  But I find it upsetting XCP is not mentioned.
I would seriously suggest that some long term bitcoin advocates, especially those who remember well the sentiment around btc in 2010-2011 as i do.
would take a long, hard analysis of Counterparty protocol (decentralized betting, cfds, binary options, exchange, marketplace, broadcast, feeds) from all angles (including the effect this can have on bitcoin underlying token),  and consider potential future applications in the same manner you would consider future applications of bitcoin protocol, rather than BTC token itself- even if you dismiss the notion of 'altcoins' by default.

Cryponote and Counterparty protocol- the latter especially I believe have tremendous upswing potential.

[AlexGR]

For the bet: I'm not a betting guy anymore.

LOL. If you really believed what you were saying, you would have immediately his DRK under 6$ within 3 weeks' bet.

Darkcoin is not Bitcoin. It's in active development. Its code is changing every day and there have been two hard forks in like 10 days. Something can go wrong with a bug, people can flash-crash it in an instant and a candle might appear at 6$. Why bet* on something like that? The masternode hack in particular can be tricky for it requires changes in stratum + p2pools. It got delayed 2 weeks and it'll still have bugs I believe, that might require extra hard fork.

It also prevents you to use logic in order to reason with us since you think we are hyping a coin whereas we just think it's the one that has the best value at the moment out of all the privacy coins in the market.

I believe you do not understand that you lack spherical awareness of what is going on. You researched anonymity and coins for how long? I've been in this market for 4 months straight and I'm learning every day whatever I can and I'm still lagging behind cryptographers and programmers in evaluating and assessing parameters.

Anyway, you just lost all your credibility when you refused his bet. Though I would think your best move would be to leave this thread quietly so people forget about you, I think as the idiot you are you will stay and try to justify your idiocy and thus keep derailing this thread.

That was uncalled for. Respect the host and his thread, if not me.

* Re the bet:

Supposing a 10bn BTC market cap, if just 1% of the transparent market chooses the emerging option of anonymity => that could translate to 100mn market cap. There is serious potential there. Will Bitcoin cover the anonymity/privacy needs of its user base? Nope because they want government approval. And the government needs Bitcoin's cooperation to tax the hell out of owners.

Likewise, in another thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=549572.msg6020352#msg6020352

As for Hirocoin vs DRK, Hirocoin is competing in the transparent market vs other altcoins.

The transparent market is a monopoly right now of 10bn market cap value where Bitcoin is the undisputed leader. Darkcoin is creating a new market and providing a new choice: Do you want your transactions and your money to be tracked, or do you want privacy?

So, just as you have one shop and everyone goes there (100% market) and then another one opens and the marketshare is shifted towards the new choice, it's the same situation with Darkcoin.

By presenting a new choice, people will now be able to choose on whether they want public or private cryptocurrencies. If even 1% of the transparent market opts for privacy, we are talking about 100 mn market cap. If 10% goes for the private market, we are talking about a billion USD.

I don't know how Hirocoin, or any other plain altcoin can have a better "this is the coin to watch" prospect than DRK. The fundamentals are very strong.

These were when DRK was like 60-70cents (0.0012) and had 2-3mn marketcap. That is my "bet".

[darlidada]

For the bet: I'm not a betting guy anymore.

LOL. If you really believed what you were saying, you would have immediately his DRK under 6$ within 3 weeks' bet.

Darkcoin is not Bitcoin. It's in active development. Its code is changing every day and there have been two hard forks in like 10 days. Something can go wrong with a bug, people can flash-crash it in an instant and a candle might appear at 6$. Why bet* on something like that? The masternode hack in particular can be tricky for it requires changes in stratum + p2pools. It got delayed 2 weeks and it'll still have bugs I believe, that might require extra hard fork.

It also prevents you to use logic in order to reason with us since you think we are hyping a coin whereas we just think it's the one that has the best value at the moment out of all the privacy coins in the market.

I believe you do not understand that you lack spherical awareness of what is going on. You researched anonymity and coins for how long? I've been in this market for 4 months straight and I'm learning every day whatever I can and I'm still lagging behind cryptographers and programmers in evaluating and assessing parameters.

Anyway, you just lost all your credibility when you refused his bet. Though I would think your best move would be to leave this thread quietly so people forget about you, I think as the idiot you are you will stay and try to justify your idiocy and thus keep derailing this thread.

That was uncalled for. Respect the host and his thread, if not me.

As I read your last reply, I agree it was uncalled for. But at the moment I typed it, it was not because you came in here trying to defend your investment since Risto bashed it. DRK is on the verge of collapse anytime, we are all aware of it. You are too as you mention plenty of risks inherent to it and you refuse to take a bet that has a huge value if you really believed what you had said previously. As I say "your coin", I realise that it is the whole problem : you are attached to it emotionally.

You tell me to respect the host, but it is you that has no respect Rpetila and his readers: instead of being straightforward and nuanced at the beginning of this thread, you came in here trying to shamelessly promote something that has no future at the expand of the financial interests of the host and his readers.

[Ozziecoin]

I read and disagreed with rptiela's analysis for the following reasons:

1. Darkcoin instant mining is NOT true. Darkcoin value at formation was close to zero. ANYONE could have bought available supply in the early days. The fact that the devs bought and held attests to their foresight and self belief.  But, I don't think they hold anywhere near 2 Million coins.  I know one Chinese miner who has/had 300k darks though.

2. Monero is not tested technology. I just don't know anything about it and it hasn't been around long enough.  However, if darkcoin works, why should I bother with untested tech?

3. Darkcoin is based on the bitcoin protocol, which is tested.  It is not perfect but it is definitely good enough.  

4. Darkcoin is undervalued compared to litecoin, which offers no privacy.

5. If monero tech is any good, why shouldn't I buy bytecoin, upon which it is based?

These are my objections.  Please debunk and question them.

[cameronpalte]

I would recommend Curecoin over all the previous currencies - uses the hashing power to do something useful.


And from what I've seen the Darkcoin instamining is true.

[Bitcopia]

Quality TA Thread becomes Mediocre Altcoin Fundamentals Thread.

I miss the quality Bitcoin TA discussion here and think that this is one of the more exciting times for it. Can we get back to that?

[AlexGR]

You tell me to respect the host, but it is you that has no respect Rpetila and his readers: instead of being straightforward and nuanced at the beginning of this thread, you came in here trying to promote something that has no future value for the host and his readers. Worse than that, as you are invested into it, it's a shameless promotion to defend your interest at the expand of all of us.

Now I'll stop engaging you because we are all derailing this thread towards altcoins instead of TA.

I merely pointed out a logic fallacy in grouping all altcoins together. Where is the disrespect towards Risto? You are making stuff up.

As to others, they sit on false information regarding Darkcoin, Monero and stuff. Most in here are trully clueless about +/-'s of the anonymous coins out there yet they pretend to be investment experts having found out about them like a week ago, propagating false information.

I have holdings in pretty much every anonymous coin there is precisely for this moment of boom, when everyone was like "anonymity? naaah... too shady" and stuff like that. So give me a break.

DRK is on the verge of collapse anytime, we are all aware of it.

I heard that at 0.003, 0.005, 0.007, 0.01, 0.014, 0.02, 0.026. Traders lost their coins to the rise and expected the dump that never came. They are now waiting to get back in, so let it fall if it must.

Keep in mind some fundamentals, whether the price corrects, flash-crashes, or goes to the moon and beyond:

1. Dark is aiming for the private/anonymous market. If just 1 out of 10 transactions are held privately/anonymously in the future, the anonymous coins will hold at least 10% of the whole cryptocurrency marketcap (so ~750mn out of 7.5bn with running prices). That leaves plenty of room for growth.

2. It provides real-world utility and stuff that people can actually use. Some of the top10 cryptos in coinmarketcap have some "fancy" concepts and features that most people do not even understand what they are / what they do / why they are useful. Privacy is something that everyone understands and has a need for in some degree. People do not want to have their bank statements online, so why would we do that with crypto? Businesses too (for competitive reasons).

2. Low inflation: BTC gives out 3600 BTCs per day. LTC gives out 28.800 LTC per day. DRK produces only 2880 DRK per day - and it will lower 7% next year.

3. Due to low inflation a significantly smaller amount of fiat (or fiat equivalent in BTCs) is required to keep the price stable compared to either LTC or BTC.

4. Due to low production of coins, coupled with the coins held for masternodes, the buying pressure for existing coins escalates.

5. BTC and LTC holders may hedge some of their investments with DRK, as DRK makes its ascent and scares them. Large bagholders of LTC in particular may have problems sleeping well and will either sell LTC or hedge with DRK. This creates a feedback loop that narrows the gap between LTC/DRK as money from LTC flows to DRK, allowing DRK to go to #2.

6. DRK represents a hedge of various forms. For example its security is not dependent on only 1 hash. It is also a bad-news-hedge in the sense that when news like "Bitcoin was banned in X country" hit, it can go the opposite way of Bitcoin. Kind'a like USD/EUR pairs when USD goes bad and EUR goes up and vice versa. Fiat hedging for BTC is unrealistic because it's a binary market. You either have BTC or fiat. But BTC/DRK is an actual hedge inside cryptos. "Bitcoin banned where? Great.. DRK to the mooooooon".

7. The numbers of coins in circulation is heavily in favor of DRK, in terms of scarcity: ~4 million DRKs vs ~12mn BTCs vs ~28mn LTCs.

8. Coin-numbers-adjusted, the price of DRK is 1/7th of LTC and 1/120th of BTC. This is grossly undervalued if one assumes that at least 5 or 10% of cryptocurrency transactions will be performed privately/anonymously and thus the price should move upwards to reflect this fact, even if DRK only occupies a far smaller percentage than now in the private/anonymous market.

9. The possibility of "mining" with masternodes, is like buying a mining ring that is free (you don't actually pay it as you still keep your DRKs) but also not obsoleted with time or new technology. Beats GPU / ASICs investment in both CAPEX and OPEX.

10. DRK is ahead of the competition. The competition has severe weaknesses and "blocker" issues. Zerocoin is the best solution but doesn't exist - and if it does come out, there will be a huge trust issue with the initial key. Bytecoin has good anonymity as a mixer but is based on an unproven/untested blockchain technology and consequently people can't trust much money on it, compared to the 5 years of running of Bitcoin. It's more like a gamble option - not something that you can throw heavy money. It also scales badly, has usability issues and is not interoperable with the bitcoin-based payment systems for merchants etc. These will hamper it for quite some time.

The fact that Cryptonote technology is superior to the current implementation of DarkSend (which will change in next revision), doesn't make it NSA-proof in itself. This means that both coins are private, not anonymous, not nearly 100% anonymous and anything else is snake oil. In essence both DRK + Cryptonote coins will be adequate for privacy, combined with IP obfuscation and "best practices" followed by the user, except if the NSA has other plans. This is like 99% privacy and the 1% to make it 100%, will require extra work from both camps. So the "superiority" aspect of Cryptonote's anonymity is null and void, unless NSA-proofing is achieved. In the meantime, the drawbacks of the whole Bytecoin system are enormous and cannot justify the "costs" for the user or the merchant. So, overall, there is no advantage in going with a Bytecoin system, over a Bitcoin-based system which is proven.

11. DRK has a coder that codes. Darkcoin has become something like a development platform of new features instead of a regular "shitcoin"-clone that offers nothing or that is stagnant.

12. Compared to LTC (which is ahead of DRK), LTC is a technological dinosaur. The LTC camp itself is worried:

https://litecointalk.org/index.php?topic=19819
https://litecointalk.org/index.php?topic=19955

Additionally, the LTC camp has failed in its primary mission to "sell" ASIC resistance, a point that would improve Bitcoin's "inadequacy". In other words, there is no reason why DRK could not exceed LTC and take #2.

13. Top-100 richlist keeps stacking when weak hands are like "maybe I should cash out": http://chainz.cryptoid.info/drk/#!rich

14. DRK has first mover advantage as the public anonymous coin which succeeded and initiated the anonymity pursuit in other coins (which are now scrambling to say DRK is scam, is a fail, is this, that, so we should take its place because we are, of course, better). Bytecoin existed from 2012 but nobody knew it until March-April 2014. By then people were already DarkSending money with Darkcoin.

[nioc]

How about ME coin

In other news after a little dip Btc is on it's way back up even though it wasn't supposed to over the weekend due to as windjc says, no fresh fiat.

[SlipperySlope]

Speaking of alts, any opinion on SlipperySlope's proposed hard fork?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=584719.0;all

Thanks for mentioning my project. I am only beginning to integrate my work into Bitcoin. The Bitcoin core developers are skeptical yet encouraging, and await "neat technology". Very likely my code will be implemented into one or more altcoins next year, in parallel with system testing on a Bitcoin testnet.

If the proposed system can pass all the challenging tests proposed by skeptics, then I believe that I win over many of not most of those whose approval I need before a hard-fork of Bitcoin.

I would like to keep this thread focused on technical analysis - and my project is far, far from influencing price. A year from now I hope that situation changes.

[telemaco]

MRO (Monero)
Okay, there was a reason why I wrote on alts. Cause I have just made my first altcoin investment ever! Monero has a trait which pretty much all other alts lack: slow and geometrically decreasing issuance. At present, only 5% of MRO is mined, and even after 4 years there will still be 20% left to be mined. There is no premine, and the community consists of several people Furthermore, it is at least currently a CPU coin, since the hashing algorithm is designed to make it difficult to implement for GPU let alone ASIC. These things make it "fair" so that there is no way to amass large stashes except by working for them in the competitive mining or buying in the open market.

The market for the coin is very active and extremely liquid. There was an OTC market in the beginning. MRO was listed in Poloniex 5 days ago and the reception has been good. It has been the most traded coin ever since despite having a market cap of only 1-3 M$! Up to 10% of the outstanding MRO changes hands daily in Poloniex, mitigating the extreme volatility that is plaguing many alts with concentrated ownership.

And now comes the main point: The coin has a feature, which is not implementable in Bitcoin - privacy! It is called CryptoNote, and means that all transactions are mixed in a protocol level. This is imo the most advanced privacy that is currently found in crypto universe, although I am sure that some disagree and let them teach me how I am wrong

The coin is probably circulating quite widely already. New mining is about 30kMRO per day (BTC180), which is about $100k (!) and the price is rising (despite that). This is not a pump and dump coin, because the inflation takes care that new coins are constantly coming to the market. A word of warning though - the market cap may seem lucratively small, but the total issuance of MRO is 20 times the current, which is a little less than that of BTC. Therefore it is easy to compare the relative valuations by just comparing the prices. At 0.006 BTC currently, MRO is not the cheapest coin around (1:166 of BTC). I would advice to not buy hastily, and not participate in bubbles (if any). Mining is also an option.

This is the first altcoin I bought, and I did it during the time when it had been listed in the exchange. My relative position is less than in BTC though, so if only one remains, I would still do better if it is BTC

ADD: Relative position means: (my holding)/(total issuance).

This is a reply to Rpietila. I won't talk more about alts on this TA thread.

You might have missed LibertyCoin (xlb)

There has been no premine and no IPOs
There has been no "Dark" history of premines in the past
It is a Proof of Stake coin that some will consider a pretty ecological alternative to bitcoin if the latter manages to achieve world adoption with huge miner farms wasted on just hashing.
It is Proof of Stake so it might be more secure as they resist a 51% attack than an equivalent Proof of Work coin.
It also provides some degree of anonimity with the use of LibertySend (aka Darksend)
Name could be a little less scary for the right-doers and state-followers than something shadowy like Darkcoin
It is still on position 27th of the Capitalization Market below coins like BillionCoin or scams like Maxcoin that deserve much less or oldies like Novacoin, so it has a long way to climb positions on the market cap aka price. So this could be a nice chance for those late to darkcoin or monero.


I think there might be a race on investment on the new breed of privacy-oriented-coins and there will be a good and healthy competition between them.
I am not saying this one is better than any of the others but some might prefer this flavour. And the different development teams competing between each other to offer the best degree of anonimity could change the market rules and maybe the valuation.

Disclaimer: I hold a small percent on Drks, Moneros and Libertycoins amongst other altcoins and of course the overwhelming biggest percent on Bitcoin.

 

[Ozziecoin]

1) yes it is true. darkcoin IS ninjamined.

2) correct. You make your own decisions there based upon how much exposure to risk you want, although the fundamentals behind it are strong it hasn't been battle tested. there was a time bitcoin was untested tech

3) Darkcoin is bitcoin with coinjoin marketed as darknodes or whatever they call them to large holders as marketing gimmick. it offers nothing unique over bitcoin and doesn't have benefits bitcoin has; network affect, liquidity, blockchain security etc.

4) so?  value is determined over many factors. litecoin is copy paste of fairbrix, which is copy paste of tenebrix. Why aren't they valued more than litecoin?  Cryptonote based coins offer significantly more privacy than Darkcoin so why are they undervalued? what does this prove?

5) why shouldn't you buy bytecoin? is this a joke? are you aware of the distribution of bytecoin?

I know nothing about bytecoin.  However, I dispute your assertion that "darknodes", actually called masternodes are a marketing gimmick.  Here is the difference in my view:

With coinjoin, the entity doing the mixing is centralised and therefore susceptible to government co-opting it, secret subpoenas (see lavabit), and infiltration.  

Masternodes provides Decentralised coin mixing.  In my view, this provides true privacy, something that bitcoin and litecoin does not offer.

On the issue of instant mining, I offer this from the dev: https://darkcointalk.org/threads/the-birth-of-darkcoin.162/

[SlipperySlope]

Meanwhile Bitcoin moving strongly upwards.

[snowdropfore]

Meanwhile Bitcoin moving strongly upwards.

still towards 4000 dollars per B??

[rpietila]

This will be my last post on altcoin in this thread, so as not to divert the thread away from it's intended purposes.

Due to popular interest for both guarding this thread as a Bitcoin thread, and having a quality altcoin discussion, the Altcoin Observer is now in a different thread. Please continue there. For some time now, all posts mentioning altcoins in this thread will be deleted, so that you can post them in the right thread.

In the new Altcoin Observer, deletion/ban results for posts whose only purpose is to bring attention to a shitcoin or to pump a pump&dumpcoin.

[rpietila]

2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

[klee]

2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

5k-6k USD per BTC, right?

[Room101]

2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

[rpietila]

2 weeks ago I posted that there is a risk for a retest of 350, but that afterwards we would have 7 upweeks until 650 in the end of June.

Well the first part never materialized, but the second one is doing well. If we adjust the low point to 420, it would mean about 800 in the end of June.

Bitcoin typically surprises with its speed. Many months ago people calculated that July would be the time to make a new top, but many have renounced those predictions since, because the downtrend was so terrible. We have 9-10 weeks until the end of July, and Bitcoin is very capable of rising to $5/mBTC in that time.

It is also possible that we see some stabilization at a certain sub-ATH level. What I don't believe, however, is that we will see prolonged corrections from the trend high point. Typically the corrections in an uptrend are short. Flashcrashes that are instantly bought back are a feature that we are in a solid uptrend.

The sell zone trigger price in 2014-7-31 is $5.2-$5.8.

SlipperySlopes model would suggest sell price would be more around 3.2 - 4.0?

How come? Our trendlines are pretty much the same, and he is selling at +0.4 and I am at +0.45, which are $5+

(We are still at -0.35 if anyone thought that the rally is getting exhausted. No, it has hardly climbed to one knee so far.)

[drawingthesun]

How come? Our trendlines are pretty much the same, and he is selling at +0.4 and I am at +0.45, which are $5+

(We are still at -0.35 if anyone thought that the rally is getting exhausted. No, it has hardly climbed to one knee so far.)

Any idea of a possible peak?

If this is the next big rally, can we expect $3,000 peak with a level off around $1,500?

[Todorius]

How come? Our trendlines are pretty much the same, and he is selling at +0.4 and I am at +0.45, which are $5+

(We are still at -0.35 if anyone thought that the rally is getting exhausted. No, it has hardly climbed to one knee so far.)

Any idea of a possible peak?

If this is the next big rally, can we expect $3,000 peak with a level off around $1,500?

3000$ is very realistic, I'd say even conservative.
A price point of around 5000$ could very well be reached. THe subsequent crash would then level out at around 2000$.

It is impossible to call out the top exactly, but I'd put it in the range of 4000$-5500$.