rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[molecular]

$1,000 is likely to be a very brief consolidation like $200 was

My hypothesis is that we will fail the first attempt at 1000 USD, rebounding strongly and falling back to 800. People will be calling the end of the rally and that's when it will actually start. From 800 to 5000.

This makes a lot of sense. It fits the scenario I just posted quite well, too.

[zimmah]

That breakout chart looks crazy. Those green candles look like penis in erection phase 

Haha, I would say "overextended" but when you take a look at the november rally, Bitcoin don't care.
one more 3day green bar in this rally?

Why only one more ? Is it really going to rest before the 1000 resistance ?

To be honest I think it is going to rest. In fact I think we'll pause (go roughly sideways or even down slightly) around $800 for a couple of weeks once we've reached that price level, which might take us a while, too (less than current speed is quite possible and I wouldn't mind).

On what grounds?

Well, firstly: we've had a lot of traffic around $800 during January, pretty much the whole month of January, in fact. That needs to be worked off before we can go higher substantially. Some people who bought there will get out and transfer their coins to new buyers... takes time.

And secondly: the similarity to the April bubble aftermath. $800 is similar to the $130 level we meandered about in September '13 for a good month. How is it similar when clearly 130 is 50% of 266 whereas 800 is 68% of 1162 (notice the fib levels?). Well, after we've found a post-crash bottom on July 6th at around $60, we pretty much rallied for 2 months. I think the $380 low corresponds to that bottom. The bulls are getting increasingly relieved and the bears are closing (or are forced to close) their shorts and are getting back on board. Also increasingly (due to the rally itself), fresh blood starts to rush in (but not as hard as it will after we've started making new all-time-highs again, of course). As to why $800 and not $700? See my first point.

It's just a possible interpretation, but I think it's much more likely than simply shooting through $1000 and beyond in one go.

A couple of weeks? I doubt that. Days maybe, but week, no.

[pinksheep]

Hi all..

Thank you rpietila for tha high quality TA.. very appreciated.

Im very bullish but not as bullish as 300k/btc..

When does rpietila think it will hit $300K?

[MahaRamana]

Hi all..

Thank you rpietila for tha high quality TA.. very appreciated.

Im very bullish but not as bullish as 300k/btc..

When does rpietila think it will hit $300K?

He does not give a specific timeframe for such prediction. Rather he calculates probabilities of being at such a price at any given time.

The current trendline says the highest probabilities of hitting 300K are in two years, around end of June 2016. But there will be a fairly long period during which the probability of hitting 300K is significant : from about end of 2015 to end of 2016, depending on when the bull runs and crashes will occur.

This is if the trendline does not have to be redrawn by that time of course.

[SlipperySlope]

At the current pace, the dramatic breakout rally will reach $800 in about a week. I and others expected a stall at $650 but that does not appear to be happening - yet.

I keep track of the days to double as a bubble peak indicator. The first doubling from the April 10, 2014 low of $340 would be at $680. That price point could be tomorrow at this pace.

[healthandwealth]

680 then  800.  Here we go.

[Biodom]

680 then  800.  Here we go.

With this speed $800 could be here by Mon or Tue.

Some hedge funds are hot in pursuit (in my opinion):
check this out...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2KhVQbv06s
some current "Gordon Gekko" is "getting in [bitcoin] at a 45 degree angle, slushing and burning everything [every bid] in sight"
go to 0:40-1:08
warning: profanity
correction-more like 60o angle, LOL

[Todorius]

A small correction had to be. Actually I'm impressed that it only dropped to the first Fibo support level. It indeed looks like further
retracement will be met with fierce bullishness.
I think we'll hold that support at 620-630 and go sideways a bit, then the climb towards 700+ will be resumed.

[zimmah]

A small correction had to be. Actually I'm impressed that it only dropped to the first Fibo support level. It indeed looks like further
retracement will be met with fierce bullishness.
I think we'll hold that support at 620-630 and go sideways a bit, then the climb towards 700+ will be resumed.

Ye, I was a bit surprised when the price dropped all the way back to $620 in a couple of muinutes after reaching $680, I expected more like $660 or $640. But it's not unreasonable to stay at $620 for a few hours or even a day or two. But unless we will get stuck at $680 I would expect it to jump to $750 or so soon.

[Dotto]

A small correction had to be. Actually I'm impressed that it only dropped to the first Fibo support level. It indeed looks like further
retracement will be met with fierce bullishness.
I think we'll hold that support at 620-630 and go sideways a bit, then the climb towards 700+ will be resumed.

Interesting how it matches with some predictions aiming for a price stall around 650 before the real rally begins. Im quite newbie regarding fibo levels, but very interested to learn how to project it. What data are you using to trace the fibos? The november ATH and the 2 aprils dip?

If someone can link a minitutorial to draw the fibos, lets say in bitcoinwisdom, will be much appreciated 

 

[Biodom]

Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat.  In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.

A price of above $840,000 by July 1 2017 is one of the most optimistic predictions I have seen. In percentage terms, how likely do you think it is that that will happen?

If we get to $269,000 by July 1, 2016 then I would say 50%. Otherwise who knows. The Metcalfe's Law model is compelling.

If bitcoin is ever going to $300k, i will be selling 10% for sure  .

[findftp]

Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat.  In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.

A price of above $840,000 by July 1 2017 is one of the most optimistic predictions I have seen. In percentage terms, how likely do you think it is that that will happen?

If we get to $269,000 by July 1, 2016 then I would say 50%. Otherwise who knows. The Metcalfe's Law model is compelling.

If bitcoin is ever going to $300k, i will be selling 10% for sure  .

Not when a loaf of bread will cost you 50k.
Unless you're dying of hunger

[Biodom]

Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat.  In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.

A price of above $840,000 by July 1 2017 is one of the most optimistic predictions I have seen. In percentage terms, how likely do you think it is that that will happen?

If we get to $269,000 by July 1, 2016 then I would say 50%. Otherwise who knows. The Metcalfe's Law model is compelling.

If bitcoin is ever going to $300k, i will be selling 10% for sure  .

Not when a loaf of bread will cost you 50k.
Unless you're dying of hunger

If loaf of bread will be 50K, bitcoin would be 8000K minimal or more likely 800 mil

[zimmah]

Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat.  In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.

A price of above $840,000 by July 1 2017 is one of the most optimistic predictions I have seen. In percentage terms, how likely do you think it is that that will happen?

If we get to $269,000 by July 1, 2016 then I would say 50%. Otherwise who knows. The Metcalfe's Law model is compelling.

If bitcoin is ever going to $300k, i will be selling 10% for sure  .

Not when a loaf of bread will cost you 50k.
Unless you're dying of hunger

If loaf of bread will be 50K, bitcoin would be 8000K minimal or more likely 800 mil

i think hyperinflation would indeed skyrocket the price of bitcoin, as people will be much quicker to realize bitcoin can save them from hyperinflation very effectively

[AlexGR]

There'll be no hyperinflation unless some cataclysmic event or financial war begins.

Monetary base is expanded but liquidity is siphoned out from the masses. So there is money inflation at the top and deflation of  income at the bottom. This prevents prices in retail from skyrocketing as people can't really spend and merchants have to keep prices low - despite inadequate profit margins.

The whole situation also disallows people to buy bitcoins, silver, gold etc - in a large scale, things that would make the value of these assets skyrocket. Instead, lack of liquidity forces people to sell their bitcoins, gold etc.

[Bagatell]

Monetary base is expanded but liquidity is siphoned out from the masses.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-02/ecuador-transfers-half-its-gold-reserves-goldman-sachs-exchange-liquidity

[BitchicksHusband]

Hi all..

Thank you rpietila for tha high quality TA.. very appreciated.

Im very bullish but not as bullish as 300k/btc..

When does rpietila think it will hit $300K?

Last year, ha ha.  He predicted it by the end of 2013.  I think he was a little bit overexcited then.

[BitchicksHusband]

Monetary base is expanded but liquidity is siphoned out from the masses.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-02/ecuador-transfers-half-its-gold-reserves-goldman-sachs-exchange-liquidity

Ecuador agreed to transfer more than half its gold reserves to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. for three years as the government seeks to bolster liquidity.
 
The central bank said it will send 466,000 ounces of gold to Goldman Sachs, worth about $580 million at current prices, and get the same amount back three years from now.

Wow.  They really haven't been paying attention very much have they.

Ecuador:  Let me help you.  You're never getting that gold back.

[Biodom]

Hi all..

Thank you rpietila for tha high quality TA.. very appreciated.

Im very bullish but not as bullish as 300k/btc..

When does rpietila think it will hit $300K?

Last year, ha ha.  He predicted it by the end of 2013.  I think he was a little bit overexcited then.

Interesting...prof Bitcorn-$10, Risto P. (during superexponential stage)-$300000.
If you take log10 of these numbers, then it is 1 and 5.447 and average of these two outliers on a log scale is 3.23856, which comes up to $1732 if you revert back from the log scale.
so, my prediction for year end=$1732.

[dnaleor]

über bullish case for bitcoin: Will we stay in this range?

Bitstamp 3d chart: