[ANN] Ethereum: Welcome to the Beginning

[miramare]

The "potential' investors have a lot of doubts. And none of "official" ETH would like to answer them. 

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[TwinWinNerD]

"The linear inflation rate has been reduced to 0.4*X per year"

Correct me if I'm wrong but x% per year is not linear, but exponential. Only those who can obtain inflationary currencies first (as they are printed) gain from inflation. Everyone else is impoverished. It's no wonder GS are interested in this project. Satoshi knew the dangers of inflation and designed bitcoin so we could escape this slavery. I'll be staying away from this one.

It actually decreasing.

1.5X + 0.4X per year
So:
Year 1: 1,5X
Year 2: 1,9X  (26% increase)
Year 3: 2,3X  (21% increase)

and so on. Until it gets near 0% in the distant future.

Let's say 0% in the "distant" future.
How distant exactly is it ?
We need expect Eth can still survive for so long time.
I was interested in this project as it's with new features, transparent teams, well spread.
I am in hesitation. I think the investors will take all risks (maybe very high) and have no equally high profit expectation.

Actually we can calucate that fairly easily. Lets say you define 2% as "No inflation".

Then
1.5X+0.4XY        = 1.02
1.5X+0.4X(Y+1)

[miramare]

"The linear inflation rate has been reduced to 0.4*X per year"

Correct me if I'm wrong but x% per year is not linear, but exponential. Only those who can obtain inflationary currencies first (as they are printed) gain from inflation. Everyone else is impoverished. It's no wonder GS are interested in this project. Satoshi knew the dangers of inflation and designed bitcoin so we could escape this slavery. I'll be staying away from this one.

It actually decreasing.

1.5X + 0.4X per year
So:
Year 1: 1,5X
Year 2: 1,9X  (26% increase)
Year 3: 2,3X  (21% increase)

and so on. Until it gets near 0% in the distant future.

Let's say 0% in the "distant" future.
How distant exactly is it ?
We need expect Eth can still survive for so long time.
I was interested in this project as it's with new features, transparent teams, well spread.
I am in hesitation. I think the investors will take all risks (maybe very high) and have no equally high profit expectation.

Actually we can calucate that fairly easily. Lets say you define 2% as "No inflation".

Then
1.5X+0.4XY        = 1.02
1.5X+0.4X(Y+1)

Something is wrong with this equation.
The right part should be 1/1.02, I think.
To solve the equation, we can get Y~46.25.
Yeah, we will have no inflation in 2070s. (consistent with the result in whitepaper).

[MsCollec]

OMG so much drama with Ethereum    The beginning of mayhem and trolls accusations of scam conspiracy 

[pandaisftw]

"The linear inflation rate has been reduced to 0.4*X per year"

Correct me if I'm wrong but x% per year is not linear, but exponential. Only those who can obtain inflationary currencies first (as they are printed) gain from inflation. Everyone else is impoverished. It's no wonder GS are interested in this project. Satoshi knew the dangers of inflation and designed bitcoin so we could escape this slavery. I'll be staying away from this one.

It actually decreasing.

1.5X + 0.4X per year
So:
Year 1: 1,5X
Year 2: 1,9X  (26% increase)
Year 3: 2,3X  (21% increase)

and so on. Until it gets near 0% in the distant future.

Let's say 0% in the "distant" future.
How distant exactly is it ?
We need expect Eth can still survive for so long time.
I was interested in this project as it's with new features, transparent teams, well spread.
I am in hesitation. I think the investors will take all risks (maybe very high) and have no equally high profit expectation.

Actually we can calucate that fairly easily. Lets say you define 2% as "No inflation".

Then
1.5X+0.4XY        = 1.02
1.5X+0.4X(Y+1)

Something is wrong with this equation.
The right part should be 1/1.02, I think.
To solve the equation, we can get Y~46.25.
Yeah, we will have no inflation in 2070s. (consistent with the result in whitepaper).

What is the total amount of inflation from IPO until 2070?

[TheMightyX]

This thread is such a joke.  You have the EXACT three or four guys repeating over and over again what a great product it is and attacking and demoralizing anyone who has a negative opinion about it.  Go to just about any forum thats sells products and you see the same pattern.  Three or four shills pumping up the product throughout the entire thread making it seem like the entire community thinks it is awesome.  This crowdfundraising is a total scam job.  Who in their right mind gives 30,000 in untraceable bitcoins to a bunch of total strangers that refuse to file the proper paperwork that is required when crowdfundraising.  This legally required fundraising is designed to provide transparency and protect people against fraud.  This is not your average coin launch that does a percentage of pre-mine for advertising.  They lost their right of anonymity as small time devs just casually creating coins when they asked for 36 million dollars from the public. When you ask for that kind of cash, you MUST file the proper paperwork.

They are asking YOU and the entire bitcoin community to TRUST them and GIVE them 30,000 BTC before launch and make them millions before one coin is mined with absolutely no documentation, no insurance, no bond, no transparency, no regulatory filings.  Do not let them deceive you.  This is not just another coin launch.  When you ask for this type of money, you MUST file the proper paperwork and background checks.  Who are these guys?  ONE youtube video and they are asking for 30,000 BTC.  Let them earn their money like every other dev, mine a small part and let the market decide how much the coins should be worth. Even if you like the tech DO NOT enable this kind of behaviour and let these fukin devs take advantage of the bitcoin community.  They want to be millionaires with YOUR money before even launching.  They want YOU to take ALL the risk while they become millionaires with ZERO risk.    They will be laughing all the way to the bank in their new Lamborghinis and Homes, while you are nervous about your money the entire time.  They have no sweat equity or money in of their own in this project.  Does this seem right to you?

Actually if anyone has bombarded this thread by repeating the same point over and over and over again, it is you.

You have been repeatedly told that 30,000 BTC does not translate to 36 million dollars on current BTC prices but you ignore them and stick to your version. You just want to scare people away. You have repeatedly been told that 30,000 represents a hard cap and it remains to be seen how much our community actually invests but again you only acknowledge what is convenient for you. For the record what is the largest IPO in BTC terms that has been raised for alt-coins. I know XCP has PoB'ed 1600+ BTC. Anything higher than that? ETH might not attract an investment in 5 digits so I really do not understand the fuss.

30,000 BTC = 25 million, so a bit off. They probably should not have set a cap at all, because it shows what they think they are capable of acquiring from the people in a best case scenario.

You ask for conformity with US regulations when this is NOT a project within American jurisdiction and global investors including investors from outside your country. You know people do exist who are not American. Should they file paperwork with every country where investors come from?

So because it won't have any effect in some countries we should do away with any kind of recourse at all? What the hell kind of logic is that? "Hey your seatbelt wont save you from ALL injuries so you just shouldn't wear it"
At least if shit went sideways and they were regulated in canada, there would be SOME recourse, wouldn't you agree?

Everyone has a choice. You have made it clear that this is scam. So don't invest in it. You want to educate others about it? I have read a dozen of your posts that essentially make the same point. It's got to a point where this is now verbal diarrhea ad nauseum.

What he is doing (countering bullshit posts) is helpful to the community, because the majority of people don't read a 20, 50 or 100 page thread in its entirety. They read the first page and the last page(s). If he was to just shut up it would let people spread misleading propoganda. So thank you for bringing some issues to light Gunshot5820.

I suspect you actually do want to invest a large amount yourself so by scaring the crap out of people you want to minimize dilution. You can deny all you want but there is no other motive strong enough to repeatedly change the narrative of this thread your way with nothing else to gain. If I thought this was a scam I would have had my say and then left this thread alone.

He's doing what he feels is right, warning others about a potentially bad situation waiting to happen. It looks like he is trying to prevent others from being misled.

The truth is ETH has some very large issues in overrall design. We need people to point these out and bring things to our attention. The creators are treating this like a product. Well we are tired of being sold crap. ETH was not created by god, it was created by people. People can be stupid, nearsighted, petty, greedy and wrong. The creators of ETH are no different. People are people. The motivation for this project is obviously greed. Not a desire to create a better world.

[miramare]

"The linear inflation rate has been reduced to 0.4*X per year"

Correct me if I'm wrong but x% per year is not linear, but exponential. Only those who can obtain inflationary currencies first (as they are printed) gain from inflation. Everyone else is impoverished. It's no wonder GS are interested in this project. Satoshi knew the dangers of inflation and designed bitcoin so we could escape this slavery. I'll be staying away from this one.

It actually decreasing.

1.5X + 0.4X per year
So:
Year 1: 1,5X
Year 2: 1,9X  (26% increase)
Year 3: 2,3X  (21% increase)

and so on. Until it gets near 0% in the distant future.

Let's say 0% in the "distant" future.
How distant exactly is it ?
We need expect Eth can still survive for so long time.
I was interested in this project as it's with new features, transparent teams, well spread.
I am in hesitation. I think the investors will take all risks (maybe very high) and have no equally high profit expectation.

Actually we can calucate that fairly easily. Lets say you define 2% as "No inflation".

Then
1.5X+0.4XY        = 1.02
1.5X+0.4X(Y+1)

Something is wrong with this equation.
The right part should be 1/1.02, I think.
To solve the equation, we can get Y~46.25.
Yeah, we will have no inflation in 2070s. (consistent with the result in whitepaper).

What is the total amount of inflation from IPO until 2070?

Assuming that Eth will reach the hard cap (30000BTC) at IPO, there are about 30,000,000-60,000,000 eths sold in total (Let's take a median value 45,000,000). Considering 50% premine, the amount of eth should be 1.5*45,000,000 ~ 67,500,000 at launch.
Until 2070, the total amount of eth should be 67,500,000*(1+0.4*46)~ 1,309,500,000.

So just don't worry about the inflation. The amount JUST increase about 20 times in 46 years.
It's only a bit, isn't it?

[miramare]

My other question is, where do the other 30'000 bitcoins go? Do the founders have to invest into the project too or are they simply awarded the 0.5X Ethereum.

Otherwise, the project looks promising but there I'm skeptical regarding ROI.

Read the first post. 30000 BTC will go to the pocket of devs according to salary, bounty....

[etparle]

this amount of premine and greed with Ethereum devs are of epic proportion. good luck to those "invest" in this.

[_ingsoc]

Read the first post. 30000 BTC will go to the pocket of devs according to salary, bounty....

The thing I think people don't understand is that the everything I've read so far from the Ethereum guys indicates they have a long-term view. People don't seem to understand this. That money is going to be transparent and will go to the development of Ethereum in multiple programming languages, as well as applications and services on the platform. And from what I've read that's just the beginning. Vitalik talked about detailed spending plans that go all the way up to the hard cap. Of course, all of this is yet to be revealed, but that takes time to develop as well.

The point is, would you rather have a pump and dump coin that has a few months outlook (if that), or something that tries to grow value over the long-term? That's my take so far anyway, by ignoring the FUD, and looking at what they've actually said.

[LeoC]

This thread is such a joke.  You have the EXACT three or four guys repeating over and over again what a great product it is and attacking and demoralizing anyone who has a negative opinion about it.  Go to just about any forum thats sells products and you see the same pattern.  Three or four shills pumping up the product throughout the entire thread making it seem like the entire community thinks it is awesome.  This crowdfundraising is a total scam job.  Who in their right mind gives 30,000 in untraceable bitcoins to a bunch of total strangers that refuse to file the proper paperwork that is required when crowdfundraising.  This legally required fundraising is designed to provide transparency and protect people against fraud.  This is not your average coin launch that does a percentage of pre-mine for advertising.  They lost their right of anonymity as small time devs just casually creating coins when they asked for 36 million dollars from the public. When you ask for that kind of cash, you MUST file the proper paperwork.

They are asking YOU and the entire bitcoin community to TRUST them and GIVE them 30,000 BTC before launch and make them millions before one coin is mined with absolutely no documentation, no insurance, no bond, no transparency, no regulatory filings.  Do not let them deceive you.  This is not just another coin launch.  When you ask for this type of money, you MUST file the proper paperwork and background checks.  Who are these guys?  ONE youtube video and they are asking for 30,000 BTC.  Let them earn their money like every other dev, mine a small part and let the market decide how much the coins should be worth. Even if you like the tech DO NOT enable this kind of behaviour and let these fukin devs take advantage of the bitcoin community.  They want to be millionaires with YOUR money before even launching.  They want YOU to take ALL the risk while they become millionaires with ZERO risk.    They will be laughing all the way to the bank in their new Lamborghinis and Homes, while you are nervous about your money the entire time.  They have no sweat equity or money in of their own in this project.  Does this seem right to you?

Actually if anyone has bombarded this thread by repeating the same point over and over and over again, it is you.

You have been repeatedly told that 30,000 BTC does not translate to 36 million dollars on current BTC prices but you ignore them and stick to your version. You just want to scare people away. You have repeatedly been told that 30,000 represents a hard cap and it remains to be seen how much our community actually invests but again you only acknowledge what is convenient for you. For the record what is the largest IPO in BTC terms that has been raised for alt-coins. I know XCP has PoB'ed 1600+ BTC. Anything higher than that? ETH might not attract an investment in 5 digits so I really do not understand the fuss.

30,000 BTC = 25 million, so a bit off. They probably should not have set a cap at all, because it shows what they think they are capable of acquiring from the people in a best case scenario.

You ask for conformity with US regulations when this is NOT a project within American jurisdiction and global investors including investors from outside your country. You know people do exist who are not American. Should they file paperwork with every country where investors come from?

So because it won't have any effect in some countries we should do away with any kind of recourse at all? What the hell kind of logic is that? "Hey your seatbelt wont save you from ALL injuries so you just shouldn't wear it"
At least if shit went sideways and they were regulated in canada, there would be SOME recourse, wouldn't you agree?

Everyone has a choice. You have made it clear that this is scam. So don't invest in it. You want to educate others about it? I have read a dozen of your posts that essentially make the same point. It's got to a point where this is now verbal diarrhea ad nauseum.

What he is doing (countering bullshit posts) is helpful to the community, because the majority of people don't read a 20, 50 or 100 page thread in its entirety. They read the first page and the last page(s). If he was to just shut up it would let people spread misleading propoganda. So thank you for bringing some issues to light Gunshot5820.

I suspect you actually do want to invest a large amount yourself so by scaring the crap out of people you want to minimize dilution. You can deny all you want but there is no other motive strong enough to repeatedly change the narrative of this thread your way with nothing else to gain. If I thought this was a scam I would have had my say and then left this thread alone.

He's doing what he feels is right, warning others about a potentially bad situation waiting to happen. It looks like he is trying to prevent others from being misled.

The truth is ETH has some very large issues in overrall design. We need people to point these out and bring things to our attention. The creators are treating this like a product. Well we are tired of being sold crap. ETH was not created by god, it was created by people. People can be stupid, nearsighted, petty, greedy and wrong. The creators of ETH are no different. People are people. The motivation for this project is obviously greed. Not a desire to create a better world.

MightX you are the most self entitled pig I have ever met. Have you yourself done ANYTHING other than bitch about other peoples ideas, products or services?
If you don't like something, then make one yourself. Sick of seeing you on these forums with ZERO ideas, but bashing all the good ones.

[lonsharim]

30,000 BTC = 25 million, so a bit off. They probably should not have set a cap at all, because it shows what they think they are capable of acquiring from the people in a best case scenario.

36-25=11 million dollars. It might be a bit for you but to most others that represents a lot of money. At least you acknowledge that it is a best case scanario, Gunshot propagates repeatedly that 36 mill is what the devs are looking to raise, that is just as bullshit and just as misleading. I have as much right to disagree. Do you not question a man who clearly knows the math is wrong and repeats the same in every single post?

You ask for conformity with US regulations when this is NOT a project within American jurisdiction and global investors including investors from outside your country. You know people do exist who are not American. Should they file paperwork with every country where investors come from?

So because it won't have any effect in some countries we should do away with any kind of recourse at all? What the hell kind of logic is that? "Hey your seatbelt wont save you from ALL injuries so you just shouldn't wear it"
At least if shit went sideways and they were regulated in canada, there would be SOME recourse, wouldn't you agree?

A recourse for making an investment in what governments around the world consider commodity and not currency. There is a difference between desirability and realism. To raise such an objection to one project while not applying the same logic to others is also extremely selective. I have to agree regulated is better than unregulated but do you really think that is possible?

Everyone has a choice. You have made it clear that this is scam. So don't invest in it. You want to educate others about it? I have read a dozen of your posts that essentially make the same point. It's got to a point where this is now verbal diarrhea ad nauseum.

What he is doing (countering bullshit posts) is helpful to the community, because the majority of people don't read a 20, 50 or 100 page thread in its entirety. They read the first page and the last page(s). If he was to just shut up it would let people spread misleading propoganda. So thank you for bringing some issues to light Gunshot5820.

Well what he said in response is called abuse. Calling someone scum and asshole because they questioned your post is unhelpful and bullying. You might unfortunately find that helpful but it shows extremely poor taste and is an accurate reflection of his culture and upbringing.

He's doing what he feels is right, warning others about a potentially bad situation waiting to happen. It looks like he is trying to prevent others from being misled.

Why is that his exclusive right to post what he feels is right? Why can no one respond without getting abused by him?

The truth is ETH has some very large issues in overrall design. We need people to point these out and bring things to our attention. The creators are treating this like a product. Well we are tired of being sold crap. ETH was not created by god, it was created by people. People can be stupid, nearsighted, petty, greedy and wrong. The creators of ETH are no different. People are people. The motivation for this project is obviously greed. Not a desire to create a better world.

You may be right I do not debate that. No project, especially a financial project can be born out of altruism alone. Next we can debate on how much greed is acceptable to a majority of the community. It is subjective at the end of the day. I personally think the founders should not be remunerated from the BTC and also receive ETH as part of the premine. You might hold a more extreme or liberal view on the matter but either of us have say in the matter but surely we can debate it with civility?

[nesco1805]

30,000 BTC = 25 million, so a bit off. They probably should not have set a cap at all, because it shows what they think they are capable of acquiring from the people in a best case scenario.

36-25=11 million dollars. It might be a bit for you but to most others that represents a lot of money. At least you acknowledge that it is a best case scanario, Gunshot propagates repeatedly that 36 mill is what the devs are looking to raise, that is just as bullshit and just as misleading.

We are still at this 30k BTC .NE. $36M?
What a great argument to avoid senseless regulatory spending.

Hey guys, this is a whole different beast now.  $25M makes cutting corners so much more sensible.


BTW...

Welcome to the New Beginning

/cut

• Given today’s bitstamp price for Bitcoin, should we reach the maximum fundraiser limit of 30,000 bitcoin, this would roughly infer a post-fundraiser market capitalization of roughly $36 million with neutral ROI requiring at least $12 million per year of added market value.

[pandaisftw]

Assuming that Eth will reach the hard cap (30000BTC) at IPO, there are about 30,000,000-60,000,000 eths sold in total (Let's take a median value 45,000,000). Considering 50% premine, the amount of eth should be 1.5*45,000,000 ~ 67,500,000 at launch.
Until 2070, the total amount of eth should be 67,500,000*(1+0.4*46)~ 1,309,500,000.

So just don't worry about the inflation. The amount JUST increase about 20 times in 46 years.
It's only a bit, isn't it?

This type of fundraising puts investors in a very bad spot. Right out the gate, miners will be reducing their value very rapidly. Exactly 1 year after, devs/founders will dump 1/3 of their stash.
So investors will have to fight just to retain their ROI... not a spot you want to put yourself in when investing in any other coin could give you hundreds of % easily (if you pick the right one). Not to mention, in 46 years, your initial stake will be diluted to 5% of it's original value, so holding for the long term is not particularly rewarding.

And my question of why ETH should have any value has not quite been answered. It's not being put forward as store of value, ETH's value is in the programs that can run on top of ETH. So they create a situation where most people won't actually buy more ETH than they need to run a particular program (ie. no one is going to want to hold ETH with these initial inflation rates and risk of devs dumping 1 year out). Why hold ETH when you can hold other coins, make a killing from price increases, and simply send a few dollars over to ETH if you happen to need to run a script? Why take a risk with the rapid inflation that may or may not devalue your original stake by -66% one year from IPO? 1-(0.5/[(0.5/3)+0.5+0.4])

In the beginning there will be very few programs to run and a lot of ETH available... perhaps it will be better to buy (and mine) after launch. ETH is a good idea, but they punish investors much too greatly.

[marcusnz]

As surprising as it might sound from me, I might invest in Ethereum and get out before the pump phase is over. The basic idea is ingenious, I respect Vitalik very much. But until the role of Goldman Sachs hasn't been clarified I won't trust this project.

Have you read the terms ?? PEOPLE YOU MUST READ !!
All coins will be locked for one year. You won't be able to sell anything before a year AND you won't be able to sell more 1/3 of your coins per year which mean that you will never be able to sell all your coins.

In the meantime, 1000 new altcoins will be lauched.

I think the devs are honest people, but this ipo/fundraiser is disappointingly horrible, and this (above) puts me off big time. Ether is a great idea and wil probably do well, but people need to also take into account how much btc, ripple, nxt and the other altcoins will move this year before ether is available to be traded. If ether raises 30 odd million thus valuing it at around 60 million, it will need to be over 1 billion by the end of the year to be a better investment opportunity than whats is currently available today imo.

[lonsharim]

BTW...

Welcome to the New Beginning

/cut

• Given today’s bitstamp price for Bitcoin, should we reach the maximum fundraiser limit of 30,000 bitcoin, this would roughly infer a post-fundraiser market capitalization of roughly $36 million with neutral ROI requiring at least $12 million per year of added market value.

I am a bit exasperated too. We truly fail to comprehend the words of a 19 year old and we complain that he is too young lol

A maximum market capitalization of 36 million is achieved not by raising 30000 BTC but because the maximum ETH raised is 1.5 * X. "Infered" value is 36 because max X raised amounts to 24.

Further 12 million per year is added because we mine 0.4X (previously 0.5X)

Let me know if I need to increase the font size, I can do it too.

[Netnox]

As surprising as it might sound from me, I might invest in Ethereum and get out before the pump phase is over. The basic idea is ingenious, I respect Vitalik very much. But until the role of Goldman Sachs hasn't been clarified I won't trust this project.

Have you read the terms ?? PEOPLE YOU MUST READ !!
All coins will be locked for one year. You won't be able to sell anything before a year AND you won't be able to sell more 1/3 of your coins per year which mean that you will never be able to sell all your coins.

In the meantime, 1000 new altcoins will be lauched.

That's like a bank refusing to let you withdraw your own money, not surprising when you consider goldman sachs employes support this

[Netnox]

Will this coin be cpu or gpu mined?

[lonsharim]

Will this coin be cpu or gpu mined?

Should be both.

From what I understand gpu mining is not going to give you that much of an advantage over cpu.

[marcusnz]

I'm a bit of a newbie so forgive me if I am totally wrong.

But from the sounds of it 1X of the currency will be given to investors in correspondence to how much they put in. 0.5X will be given to the fiduciary members and other team members. There is also an increase of coins (0.4X) each year.

Assuming an investment of all 30'000 bitcoins, with a corresponding market cap of $24million. The immediate market cap has to be $36million just to break even? Given the 0.4X increase in supply, that would confer a $9.6million per year of added market value for neutral ROI. (And not the $12million, which the team initially posted). So in terms of investment returns, I have to consider a couple issues. Firstly, will Ethereum reach neutral market cap? How big of a dilution effect will the 0.4X yearly increase of supply have? Since the founders are only accepting Bitcoin, will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin? Personally, I'm expecting Bitcoin to become ~ 10 times its value this year. On the other hand, I'm not sure whether or not Ethereum will reach a $400-500million market cap.

This is just my 2 cents. I'm completely open to other opinions.

My other question is, where do the other 30'000 bitcoins go? Do the founders have to invest into the project too or are they simply awarded the 0.5X Ethereum.

Otherwise, the project looks promising but there I'm skeptical regarding ROI.

This basically sums up my feelings. I like the idea and i like the devs, but the i think the ipo/fundraiser is way off and more importantly, i just don't see it outperforming btc this year which i also estimate to increase x10. Futhermore, i certainly dont see it outperforming some of the alt coins improving up to 300% in a week which offer nice opportunities if clever. Imo, this will be the year of btc and the mass marketable alt coins (dogecoin/ coinye and such). Advanced products like ethereium will likely get attention very late in the year or early next year. This makes tying up btc in ethereium a bad investment at this stage, but a good investment  (potentially) in 8-12 months

Id like to hear opinions on this also.