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Author Topic: [ANN] Ethereum: Welcome to the Beginning  (Read 1584796 times)
nesco1805
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January 27, 2014, 12:14:53 PM
 #461

30,000 BTC = 25 million, so a bit off. They probably should not have set a cap at all, because it shows what they think they are capable of acquiring from the people in a best case scenario.
36-25=11 million dollars. It might be a bit for you but to most others that represents a lot of money. At least you acknowledge that it is a best case scanario, Gunshot propagates repeatedly that 36 mill is what the devs are looking to raise, that is just as bullshit and just as misleading.



We are still at this 30k BTC .NE. $36M?
What a great argument to avoid senseless regulatory spending.

Hey guys, this is a whole different beast now.  $25M makes cutting corners so much more sensible.


BTW...

Welcome to the New Beginning

/cut

  • Given today’s bitstamp price for Bitcoin, should we reach the maximum fundraiser limit of 30,000 bitcoin, this would roughly infer a post-fundraiser market capitalization of roughly $36 million with neutral ROI requiring at least $12 million per year of added market value.


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pandaisftw
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January 27, 2014, 12:26:52 PM
 #462

Assuming that Eth will reach the hard cap (30000BTC) at IPO, there are about 30,000,000-60,000,000 eths sold in total (Let's take a median value 45,000,000). Considering 50% premine, the amount of eth should be 1.5*45,000,000 ~ 67,500,000 at launch.
Until 2070, the total amount of eth should be 67,500,000*(1+0.4*46)~ 1,309,500,000.

So just don't worry about the inflation. The amount JUST increase about 20 times in 46 years.
It's only a bit, isn't it?

This type of fundraising puts investors in a very bad spot. Right out the gate, miners will be reducing their value very rapidly. Exactly 1 year after, devs/founders will dump 1/3 of their stash.
So investors will have to fight just to retain their ROI... not a spot you want to put yourself in when investing in any other coin could give you hundreds of % easily (if you pick the right one). Not to mention, in 46 years, your initial stake will be diluted to 5% of it's original value, so holding for the long term is not particularly rewarding.

And my question of why ETH should have any value has not quite been answered. It's not being put forward as store of value, ETH's value is in the programs that can run on top of ETH. So they create a situation where most people won't actually buy more ETH than they need to run a particular program (ie. no one is going to want to hold ETH with these initial inflation rates and risk of devs dumping 1 year out). Why hold ETH when you can hold other coins, make a killing from price increases, and simply send a few dollars over to ETH if you happen to need to run a script? Why take a risk with the rapid inflation that may or may not devalue your original stake by -66% one year from IPO? 1-(0.5/[(0.5/3)+0.5+0.4])

In the beginning there will be very few programs to run and a lot of ETH available... perhaps it will be better to buy (and mine) after launch. ETH is a good idea, but they punish investors much too greatly.

NXT: 13095091276527367030
marcusnz
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January 27, 2014, 12:31:09 PM
 #463

As surprising as it might sound from me, I might invest in Ethereum and get out before the pump phase is over. The basic idea is ingenious, I respect Vitalik very much. But until the role of Goldman Sachs hasn't been clarified I won't trust this project.

Have you read the terms ?? PEOPLE YOU MUST READ !!
All coins will be locked for one year. You won't be able to sell anything before a year AND you won't be able to sell more 1/3 of your coins per year which mean that you will never be able to sell all your coins.

In the meantime, 1000 new altcoins will be lauched.



I think the devs are honest people, but this ipo/fundraiser is disappointingly horrible, and this (above) puts me off big time. Ether is a great idea and wil probably do well, but people need to also take into account how much btc, ripple, nxt and the other altcoins will move this year before ether is available to be traded. If ether raises 30 odd million thus valuing it at around 60 million, it will need to be over 1 billion by the end of the year to be a better investment opportunity than whats is currently available today imo.

lonsharim
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January 27, 2014, 12:31:58 PM
 #464

BTW...

Welcome to the New Beginning

/cut

  • Given today’s bitstamp price for Bitcoin, should we reach the maximum fundraiser limit of 30,000 bitcoin, this would roughly infer a post-fundraiser market capitalization of roughly $36 million with neutral ROI requiring at least $12 million per year of added market value.

I am a bit exasperated too. We truly fail to comprehend the words of a 19 year old and we complain that he is too young lol

A maximum market capitalization of 36 million is achieved not by raising 30000 BTC but because the maximum ETH raised is 1.5 * X. "Infered" value is 36 because max X raised amounts to 24.

Further 12 million per year is added because we mine 0.4X (previously 0.5X)

Let me know if I need to increase the font size, I can do it too.
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January 27, 2014, 12:37:24 PM
 #465

As surprising as it might sound from me, I might invest in Ethereum and get out before the pump phase is over. The basic idea is ingenious, I respect Vitalik very much. But until the role of Goldman Sachs hasn't been clarified I won't trust this project.

Have you read the terms ?? PEOPLE YOU MUST READ !!
All coins will be locked for one year. You won't be able to sell anything before a year AND you won't be able to sell more 1/3 of your coins per year which mean that you will never be able to sell all your coins.

In the meantime, 1000 new altcoins will be lauched.



That's like a bank refusing to let you withdraw your own money, not surprising when you consider goldman sachs employes support this

Netnox
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January 27, 2014, 12:38:16 PM
 #466

Will this coin be cpu or gpu mined?

lonsharim
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January 27, 2014, 12:40:00 PM
 #467

Will this coin be cpu or gpu mined?
Should be both.

From what I understand gpu mining is not going to give you that much of an advantage over cpu.
marcusnz
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January 27, 2014, 12:43:29 PM
 #468

I'm a bit of a newbie so forgive me if I am totally wrong.

But from the sounds of it 1X of the currency will be given to investors in correspondence to how much they put in. 0.5X will be given to the fiduciary members and other team members. There is also an increase of coins (0.4X) each year.

Assuming an investment of all 30'000 bitcoins, with a corresponding market cap of $24million. The immediate market cap has to be $36million just to break even? Given the 0.4X increase in supply, that would confer a $9.6million per year of added market value for neutral ROI. (And not the $12million, which the team initially posted). So in terms of investment returns, I have to consider a couple issues. Firstly, will Ethereum reach neutral market cap? How big of a dilution effect will the 0.4X yearly increase of supply have? Since the founders are only accepting Bitcoin, will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin? Personally, I'm expecting Bitcoin to become ~ 10 times its value this year. On the other hand, I'm not sure whether or not Ethereum will reach a $400-500million market cap.

This is just my 2 cents. I'm completely open to other opinions.

My other question is, where do the other 30'000 bitcoins go? Do the founders have to invest into the project too or are they simply awarded the 0.5X Ethereum.

Otherwise, the project looks promising but there I'm skeptical regarding ROI.

This basically sums up my feelings. I like the idea and i like the devs, but the i think the ipo/fundraiser is way off and more importantly, i just don't see it outperforming btc this year which i also estimate to increase x10. Futhermore, i certainly dont see it outperforming some of the alt coins improving up to 300% in a week which offer nice opportunities if clever. Imo, this will be the year of btc and the mass marketable alt coins (dogecoin/ coinye and such). Advanced products like ethereium will likely get attention very late in the year or early next year. This makes tying up btc in ethereium a bad investment at this stage, but a good investment  (potentially) in 8-12 months

Id like to hear opinions on this also.
Netnox
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January 27, 2014, 12:46:54 PM
 #469

Will this coin be cpu or gpu mined?
Should be both.

From what I understand gpu mining is not going to give you that much of an advantage over cpu.

So when will mining be possible? After feb 1st or after the fundraiser limit has been reached after 2 months?


I don't like this, they remind me to HSBC not allowing people to withdraw: "The fiduciary members will be vested over a 12 month period and cannot divest more than ⅓ of their position per year thereafter"

nesco1805
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January 27, 2014, 12:47:42 PM
 #470

@lonsharim
OK now I understand. /corners away Wink

How about



  • Early investors for taking a great risk due to the uncertainty of investment will be rewarded by a bonus of 2*initial investment for the first week and then this bonus decays by 2 percent per day for the remainder of the fundraiser until it reaches a floor of the base exchange rate of 0.001 BTC per 1 Ether
  • After the fundraiser closes, the total sum of ether produced will be denoted as X and we will instantiate a premine of 0.50*X for the fiduciary members, early stakeholders, strategic partners



Is this a classical premine? Where premine goes to coin publisher, OP, bounties whatever.
Or is this premine returned to investors?

Because if not, who the hell are these so called Early stakeholder, if not before mentioned Early investors themselves?
Alphi
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January 27, 2014, 12:56:10 PM
 #471


Is this a classical premine? Where premine goes to coin publisher, OP, bounties whatever.
Or is this premine returned to investors?

Because if not, who the hell are these so called Early stakeholder, if not before mentioned Early investors themselves?

from what I gather most of the premined coins go to the IPO investors depending on how many BTC are invested ofcourse.

I just read the white paper and im quite fascinated by these new developments..

especially multi way contracts and savings wallets where more than one key holder is required before x amount can be spent. That is a real game changer for those people who are not tech savvy enough to protect their funds properly.

KARMA: KSc9oGgGga1TS4PqZNFxNS9LSDjdSgpC1B      VERT: VgKaooA5ZuLLUXTUANJigH9wCPuzBUBv9H
DOGE:   DRN7pXid34o6wQgUuK8BoSjWJ5g8jiEs4e
lonsharim
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January 27, 2014, 12:56:42 PM
 #472

Will this coin be cpu or gpu mined?
Should be both.

From what I understand gpu mining is not going to give you that much of an advantage over cpu.

So when will mining be possible? After feb 1st or after the fundraiser limit has been reached after 2 months?


I don't like this, they remind me to HSBC not allowing people to withdraw: "The fiduciary members will be vested over a 12 month period and cannot divest more than ⅓ of their position per year thereafter"

1. Mining is slated to start after the completion of 2 months from 1st Feb, so the earliest date is 1st April
2. You and I are not fiduciary members. Fiduciary members in this case are the 4 founders, early stakeholders and partners, not even those that receive remuneration/bounties in ETH for being part of the project.
lonsharim
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January 27, 2014, 01:04:57 PM
 #473

@lonsharim
OK now I understand. /corners away Wink

How about



  • Early investors for taking a great risk due to the uncertainty of investment will be rewarded by a bonus of 2*initial investment for the first week and then this bonus decays by 2 percent per day for the remainder of the fundraiser until it reaches a floor of the base exchange rate of 0.001 BTC per 1 Ether
  • After the fundraiser closes, the total sum of ether produced will be denoted as X and we will instantiate a premine of 0.50*X for the fiduciary members, early stakeholders, strategic partners



Is this a classical premine? Where premine goes to coin publisher, OP, bounties whatever.
Or is this premine returned to investors?

Because if not, who the hell are these so called Early stakeholder, if not before mentioned Early investors themselves?

Investors are not early stakeholders. Investors own no part of 0.50 * X, we can potentially own a fraction of X as investors.

Early stakeholders could be any person or institution who contribute in any form useful to the project other than in BTC. We will know more when they disclose more information. They have already mentioned that they are partnering with Krypokit and Hive, it has not been made clear if Hive for instance will receive some ether in return but I am assuming they will. There is no free lunch after all.
turtoro
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January 27, 2014, 01:06:50 PM
 #474

Will this coin be cpu or gpu mined?
Should be both.

From what I understand gpu mining is not going to give you that much of an advantage over cpu.

So when will mining be possible? After feb 1st or after the fundraiser limit has been reached after 2 months?


I don't like this, they remind me to HSBC not allowing people to withdraw: "The fiduciary members will be vested over a 12 month period and cannot divest more than ⅓ of their position per year thereafter"

Google what "fiduciary member" is and youll see that you are not one and the restrictions dont apply to you. Jesus Christ people. I think some need to work on your reading comprehension. As I mentioned before im still looking at the merits of this project but the disninfo in this thread is staggering.
lonsharim
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January 27, 2014, 01:14:21 PM
 #475

As I mentioned before im still looking at the merits of this project but the disninfo in this thread is staggering.

+1

I am fast reaching the point where I see no need to correct this misinformation, some of which is clearly deliberate.
BitcoinForumator
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January 27, 2014, 01:21:18 PM
 #476

What about the costs founders estimate to have after the launch?

You know, the good old spreadsheet...
lonsharim
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January 27, 2014, 01:23:53 PM
 #477

What about the costs founders estimate to have after the launch?

You know, the good old spreadsheet...

Not yet disclosed to the public AFAIK We should hopefully know more now that the Miami conference is over.
nesco1805
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January 27, 2014, 01:23:55 PM
 #478

Sooooo...............


For every $2 we invest, there is 1$ of fixed onetime inflation + 40% yearly inflation

Right or wrong ^^
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January 27, 2014, 01:25:10 PM
 #479

What about the costs founders estimate to have after the launch?

You know, the good old spreadsheet...

Not yet disclosed to the public AFAIK We should hopefully know more now that the Miami conference is over.

"Kinda" important if you want to know what they're up to.
lonsharim
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January 27, 2014, 01:27:43 PM
 #480

What about the costs founders estimate to have after the launch?

You know, the good old spreadsheet...

Not yet disclosed to the public AFAIK We should hopefully know more now that the Miami conference is over.

"Kinda" important if you want to know what they're up to.

I agree

There is the much derided prospectus to be released on 1st Feb. I will look for any new information on there and also their official website.
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