Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[paxmao]

Meanwhile, Boris Johnson is gearing up for a brilliant new career.

If you did not like BoJo, brace for the replacement.

...

A top State Department official said that pressure from the global community and Russia's need for money from its own agricultural exports may have led Moscow to sign an agreement to allow Ukrainian grain to transit through the Black Sea. “This came together because, I think, Russia ultimately felt the hot breath of global opprobrium,” said Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-22-22/h_d3eaea1b11c234af3193407e2f0f884f
Why why are they allowing Nuland to speak? Hasn't she done enough? The message was always clear Russia applying pressure to Ukraine #5 wheat exporter (8.5%) was the reason for global food shortages U.S. Treasury: Agricultural, Medical Products Not Part of Russia Sanctions Now Nuland goes off yapping her mouth admitting that apparently there was pressure from "global community" to a #1 agricultural exporter? So global shortages in food are because of pressure to a #5 exporter but not to #1 exporter?   someone take her microphone away!

On the grain export thing, I cannot understand why Putin wouldn't have said something like "Oh, Odessa has some security issues at the moment, but we've got Mariupol port all fixed up and safe.  Just truck the product up there if you like and there should be no problems.  The choice is yours."

In point of actual fact, it probably is more safe and convenient to use the diverse road systems going into the (formerly Ukrainian) Donbas which is now pretty safe and stable.  The South part around Odessa is congested and contested.  Forcing the product over the bridges which are under attack might at least calm some of the strife along at least some of the potential routes which makes (almost) everyone a winner.

It does not work like that at all. The transport infrastructure is what it is. If not, all those Mtons of grain would have simply been sent to Poland or even Romania. The problem is that everything is designed to export through the Caspian.

Why the RF decided to attack Odessa right after the agreement? My take is that somehow the people that are sent to negotiate are pretty much ignored by the military. It seems to me that the Russian Federation does not at this moment have a single unified government, but rather an army and then some ministers and foreign affairs officials that are clueless and wield not say, no information and no power whatsoever.

[BADecker]

Probably this whole war is really only a method for getting rid of Nazi's in both, Russia and the Ukraine.

[TwitchySeal]

Probably this whole war is really only a method for getting rid of Nazi's in both, Russia and the Ukraine.

So you think the giant conspiracy is being run by good guys now?

[DaRude]

"We call on Russia to live up to its international obligations to treat all individuals captured fighting with Ukraine's armed forces as prisoners of war," they [State Department spokesperson] said.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/23/politics/americans-killed-ukraine-donbas/index.html
So they gave up trying to justify exceptions by claims of dual citizenship or whatever and now straight up saying that there are no more mercs at all? Does that mean that everyone will now have to treat all Iran's mercs in other conflicts as prisoners of war? Or it's another double standard that somehow only applies to Ukraine?

A top State Department official said that pressure from the global community and Russia's need for money from its own agricultural exports may have led Moscow to sign an agreement to allow Ukrainian grain to transit through the Black Sea. “This came together because, I think, Russia ultimately felt the hot breath of global opprobrium,” said Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-22-22/h_d3eaea1b11c234af3193407e2f0f884f
Why why are they allowing Nuland to speak? Hasn't she done enough? The message was always clear Russia applying pressure to Ukraine #5 wheat exporter (8.5%) was the reason for global food shortages U.S. Treasury: Agricultural, Medical Products Not Part of Russia Sanctions Now Nuland goes off yapping her mouth admitting that apparently there was pressure from "global community" to a #1 agricultural exporter? So global shortages in food are because of pressure to a #5 exporter but not to #1 exporter?   someone take her microphone away!

Nobody is stopping Russia from exporting grain...or any agriculture commodities...so...yeah....someone give her microphone back.

Umm you might want to reread this, who said anything about stopping? Strawman much? Nobody is stopping Ukraine from exporting grain either. State Department said that global community applying pressure to Russia's agricultural exports. You know blockading ports, preventing insuring vessels and their refueling...

[TwitchySeal]

"We call on Russia to live up to its international obligations to treat all individuals captured fighting with Ukraine's armed forces as prisoners of war," they [State Department spokesperson] said.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/23/politics/americans-killed-ukraine-donbas/index.html
So they gave up trying to justify exceptions by claims of dual citizenship or whatever and now straight up saying that there are no more mercs at all? Does that mean that everyone will now have to treat all Iran's mercs in other conflicts as prisoners of war? Or it's another double standard that somehow only applies to Ukraine?

A top State Department official said that pressure from the global community and Russia's need for money from its own agricultural exports may have led Moscow to sign an agreement to allow Ukrainian grain to transit through the Black Sea. “This came together because, I think, Russia ultimately felt the hot breath of global opprobrium,” said Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-22-22/h_d3eaea1b11c234af3193407e2f0f884f
Why why are they allowing Nuland to speak? Hasn't she done enough? The message was always clear Russia applying pressure to Ukraine #5 wheat exporter (8.5%) was the reason for global food shortages U.S. Treasury: Agricultural, Medical Products Not Part of Russia Sanctions Now Nuland goes off yapping her mouth admitting that apparently there was pressure from "global community" to a #1 agricultural exporter? So global shortages in food are because of pressure to a #5 exporter but not to #1 exporter?   someone take her microphone away!

Nobody is stopping Russia from exporting grain...or any agriculture commodities...so...yeah....someone give her microphone back.

Umm you might want to reread this, who said anything about stopping? Strawman much? Nobody is stopping Ukraine from exporting grain either. State Department said that global community applying pressure to Russia's agricultural exports. You know blockading ports, preventing insuring vessels and their refueling...

Russia is stopping Ukraine from exporting about 80% of it's grain by blocking their ports.

The "global community" is pressuring Russia to stop blocking Ukraine's ports, so that the grain can be exported and less people starve.

The kind of pressure Russia is putting on Ukraine is not the same kind of pressure the rest of the world is putting on Russia.  I think that's what confused you.

[paxmao]

"We call on Russia to live up to its international obligations to treat all individuals captured fighting with Ukraine's armed forces as prisoners of war," they [State Department spokesperson] said.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/23/politics/americans-killed-ukraine-donbas/index.html
So they gave up trying to justify exceptions by claims of dual citizenship or whatever and now straight up saying that there are no more mercs at all? Does that mean that everyone will now have to treat all Iran's mercs in other conflicts as prisoners of war? Or it's another double standard that somehow only applies to Ukraine?

A top State Department official said that pressure from the global community and Russia's need for money from its own agricultural exports may have led Moscow to sign an agreement to allow Ukrainian grain to transit through the Black Sea. “This came together because, I think, Russia ultimately felt the hot breath of global opprobrium,” said Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-22-22/h_d3eaea1b11c234af3193407e2f0f884f
Why why are they allowing Nuland to speak? Hasn't she done enough? The message was always clear Russia applying pressure to Ukraine #5 wheat exporter (8.5%) was the reason for global food shortages U.S. Treasury: Agricultural, Medical Products Not Part of Russia Sanctions Now Nuland goes off yapping her mouth admitting that apparently there was pressure from "global community" to a #1 agricultural exporter? So global shortages in food are because of pressure to a #5 exporter but not to #1 exporter?   someone take her microphone away!

Nobody is stopping Russia from exporting grain...or any agriculture commodities...so...yeah....someone give her microphone back.

Umm you might want to reread this, who said anything about stopping? Strawman much? Nobody is stopping Ukraine from exporting grain either. State Department said that global community applying pressure to Russia's agricultural exports. You know blockading ports, preventing insuring vessels and their refueling...

The "West" has nothing to do with exports critical to agriculture and food supply, that is just RF propaganda.

Agricultural exports including fertilisers are specifically excluded from sanctions. You can use ships under non-RF flags (even UNDER RF flags as well!)and export these insured and freely. Particualrly, fertilisers are massively produced in the RF and it would be crazy to block them.

In 2020, Russia exported $7.6B in Fertilizers, making it the 1st largest exporter of Fertilizers in the world. At the same year, Fertilizers was the 7th most exported product in Russia. The main destination of Fertilizers exports from Russia are: Brazil ($1.43B), Estonia ($555M), India ($540M), China ($531M), and United States ($442M).

How much of the worlds Fertiliser comes from Russia?
A top fertilizer producer, Russia accounts for 15% of global trade in nitrogenous fertilizers and 17% of global potash fertilizer exports, according to the Food Policy Research Institute. The country is also responsible for 20% of the global natural gas trade, a key component in manufacturing fertilizers.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/nigeria/eu-sanctions-do-not-restrict-eu-and-third-countries’-trade-agrifood-products_en?s=114

EU sanctions cover only bilateral trade between the EU and Russia – not international trade!
EU sanctions have no extra-territorial effect. Third country persons and firms can import agrifood from Russia under EU sanctions if they do that entirely outside the EU.

EU’s sanctions excluded a limited number of Russian banks from the SWIFT network. Banking relations via SWIFT can still continue via the other Russian banks.

Agricultural products in Russia are not targeted by EU sanctions!
EU sanctions do not prohibit EU businesses to purchase, import or pay for Russian agricultural products, provided that sanctioned persons are not involved. The EU has carefully avoided a direct and comprehensive ban on the import of Russian agricultural products.

EU Member States can grant access to EU ports of vessels flying the Russian flag, as well as entry to the EU of Russian road carriers for the purposes of importing or transporting agricultural products, including fertilisers and wheat, that are not subject to prohibitions.

On regards to this declaration:

A top State Department official said that pressure from the global community and Russia's need for money from its own agricultural exports may have led Moscow to sign an agreement to allow Ukrainian grain to transit through the Black Sea. “This came together because, I think, Russia ultimately felt the hot breath of global opprobrium,” said Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs.

It is much simpler: The RF is quite influential in a number of countries (mainly in Africa) who are the first affected if there are global food shortages and the first that would undergo a "Malthusian Positive Check".

For the US or EU citizen the tomato goes from 1.5 USD per kilo to 2.5 USD per kilo. For the struggling countries this simply means death. This means that the RF has very little to gain from constraining food supplies versus the loss of soft diplomacy influence they require.

[tvbcof]

On the grain export thing, I cannot understand why Putin wouldn't have said something like "Oh, Odessa has some security issues at the moment, but we've got Mariupol port all fixed up and safe.  Just truck the product up there if you like and there should be no problems.  The choice is yours."

In point of actual fact, it probably is more safe and convenient to use the diverse road systems going into the (formerly Ukrainian) Donbas which is now pretty safe and stable.  The South part around Odessa is congested and contested.  Forcing the product over the bridges which are under attack might at least calm some of the strife along at least some of the potential routes which makes (almost) everyone a winner.

It does not work like that at all. The transport infrastructure is what it is. If not, all those Mtons of grain would have simply been sent to Poland or even Romania. The problem is that everything is designed to export through the Caspian.

Why the RF decided to attack Odessa right after the agreement? My take is that somehow the people that are sent to negotiate are pretty much ignored by the military. It seems to me that the Russian Federation does not at this moment have a single unified government, but rather an army and then some ministers and foreign affairs officials that are clueless and wield not say, no information and no power whatsoever.

Putin seems to attack mostly where his intel guys think there are Western weapons systems being transported since these threaten Russian goals and Russian people.  It would be surprising to _not_ see that happening at the port(s) in Odessa.

As for logistics, I think that if the Ukrainians were figuring out how to exterminate 1,400,000 excess souls in the Donbas, they out to be able to figure out how to truck some wheat a few hundred clicks to a safer port for export.  Or, as you say, just send up up to Poland and hand it over to the West if that works out better.

I personally suspect that Russia is planning (or following orders) to cede Odessa to the 'New Pale of Settlement' which will stretch from the Baltic to the Mediterranean (Poland+Ukraine) whether he eventually takes the city or not.  In either case, having the port be used makes it more likely that it remains serviceable and thus more valuable.  In the interim, however, it's not desirable to have a lot of Western weapons transit through.

[paxmao]

On the grain export thing, I cannot understand why Putin wouldn't have said something like "Oh, Odessa has some security issues at the moment, but we've got Mariupol port all fixed up and safe.  Just truck the product up there if you like and there should be no problems.  The choice is yours."

In point of actual fact, it probably is more safe and convenient to use the diverse road systems going into the (formerly Ukrainian) Donbas which is now pretty safe and stable.  The South part around Odessa is congested and contested.  Forcing the product over the bridges which are under attack might at least calm some of the strife along at least some of the potential routes which makes (almost) everyone a winner.

It does not work like that at all. The transport infrastructure is what it is. If not, all those Mtons of grain would have simply been sent to Poland or even Romania. The problem is that everything is designed to export through the Caspian.

Why the RF decided to attack Odessa right after the agreement? My take is that somehow the people that are sent to negotiate are pretty much ignored by the military. It seems to me that the Russian Federation does not at this moment have a single unified government, but rather an army and then some ministers and foreign affairs officials that are clueless and wield not say, no information and no power whatsoever.

Putin seems to attack mostly where his intel guys think there are Western weapons systems being transported since these threaten Russian goals and Russian people.  It would be surprising to _not_ see that happening at the port(s) in Odessa.

As for logistics, I think that if the Ukrainians were figuring out how to exterminate 1,400,000 excess souls in the Donbas, they out to be able to figure out how to truck some wheat a few hundred clicks to a safer port for export.  Or, as you say, just send up up to Poland and hand it over to the West if that works out better.

I personally suspect that Russia is planning (or following orders) to cede Odessa to the 'New Pale of Settlement' which will stretch from the Baltic to the Mediterranean (Poland+Ukraine) whether he eventually takes the city or not.  In either case, having the port be used makes it more likely that it remains serviceable and thus more valuable.  In the interim, however, it's not desirable to have a lot of Western weapons transit through.

Keep dreaming, keep mobilising inexistent armies, keep annexing fantasyland territories...

This points out at the RF army doing whatever they please with absolute disregard for whatever the diplomatic branch of the government is doing. This is starting to look like Adolf Putin is loosing the grip on Shoigu - who was BTW the one that went to Turkiye for the agreements. He did not want to miss-out uh?

The problem with feeding the dogs is that they may become very hungry when grown. Or would you say that Adolf Putin, at this point, could even think of demoting Shoigu without getting himself killed? Nah, the Chief Psycho of the army wields the decision wand today.

If Adolf Putin had these psychos under his leash this would not be possible.

https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status/658972724845518849

Shoigu's 25 yo daughter bought this house in 2009, when she was 18. Only land costs $9M

[tvbcof]

...
As for logistics, I think that if the Ukrainians were figuring out how to exterminate 1,400,000 excess souls in the Donbas, they out to be able to figure out how to truck some wheat a few hundred clicks to a safer port for export.  Or, as you say, just send it up to Poland and hand it over to the West if that works out better.
...

That reminds me of a funny joke I heard from my Eastern European friends when I was working in Si Valley:

  Q:    Why do Russians steal two cars when they go to Germany?

  A:    Because they have to go back through Poland.

[Branko]

Probably this whole war is really only a method for getting rid of Nazi's in both, Russia and the Ukraine.

If I'd have to guess, I'd blame this more as actual cause of war:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsuMW4yQT64

[TwitchySeal]

Probably this whole war is really only a method for getting rid of Nazi's in both, Russia and the Ukraine.

If I'd have to guess, I'd blame this more as actual cause of war:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsuMW4yQT64

I love googling the guys you post youtube clips of explaining 'whats really happening'.

This guy apparently fled the country after finding himself buried in lawsuits from people he got to invest in his real estate ponzi scheme.

[paxmao]

...
As for logistics, I think that if the Ukrainians were figuring out how to exterminate 1,400,000 excess souls in the Donbas, they out to be able to figure out how to truck some wheat a few hundred clicks to a safer port for export.  Or, as you say, just send it up to Poland and hand it over to the West if that works out better.
...

That reminds me of a funny joke I heard from my Eastern European friends when I was working in Si Valley:

  Q:    Why do Russians steal two cars when they go to Germany?

  A:    Because they have to go back through Poland.

Does it say where they get the fuel? Most likely from the Russian army "excedents"

[BADecker]

...
As for logistics, I think that if the Ukrainians were figuring out how to exterminate 1,400,000 excess souls in the Donbas, they out to be able to figure out how to truck some wheat a few hundred clicks to a safer port for export.  Or, as you say, just send it up to Poland and hand it over to the West if that works out better.
...

That reminds me of a funny joke I heard from my Eastern European friends when I was working in Si Valley:

  Q:    Why do Russians steal two cars when they go to Germany?

  A:    Because they have to go back through Poland.

Does it say where they get the fuel? Most likely from the Russian army "excedents"

The point is that once they get to Germany, they're sorry they ever left Russia... so they go back.

[paxmao]

...
As for logistics, I think that if the Ukrainians were figuring out how to exterminate 1,400,000 excess souls in the Donbas, they out to be able to figure out how to truck some wheat a few hundred clicks to a safer port for export.  Or, as you say, just send it up to Poland and hand it over to the West if that works out better.
...

That reminds me of a funny joke I heard from my Eastern European friends when I was working in Si Valley:

  Q:    Why do Russians steal two cars when they go to Germany?

  A:    Because they have to go back through Poland.

Does it say where they get the fuel? Most likely from the Russian army "excedents"

The point is that once they get to Germany, they're sorry they ever left Russia... so they go back.

Yes, it seems that stealing and buying fuel from the army is more difficult in Germany. I am sure Germans will miss such a great people.

[BADecker]

The point is that once they get to Germany, they're sorry they ever left Russia... so they go back.

Yes, it seems that stealing and buying fuel from the army is more difficult in Germany. I am sure Germans will miss such a great people.

LOL. You continue to be so funny. They were just checking to see how Germany was doing without Gazprom in the first place. Looks like they didn't like the German efforts to survive.


Putin Turns The Screws: Gazprom Unexpectedly Halts Another Nord Stream Turbine...

Europeans, and especially Germans, breathed a sigh of relief last Thursday when amid fears that Moscow would not restart flows along the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after its 10 day maintenance period, Putin turned the gas back on, if just to its pre-maintenance peak level of about 40% of maximum capacity.



Alas Europe's muted celebration were not meant to last, and with many speculating that Russia was just waiting for the right opportunity to turn the screws on Germany, both literally and metaphorically, that's precisely what happened moments ago when shortly after Siemens finally delivered transport documents for the controversial Nord Stream turbine that had been stuck in Canada for weeks, Gazprom unexpectedly announced it would halt one more Nord Stream turbine at its Portovaya compressor station from July 27, "taking into account the technical conditions of the engine," the Russian company says in a statement.

...

[Branko]

Probably this whole war is really only a method for getting rid of Nazi's in both, Russia and the Ukraine.

If I'd have to guess, I'd blame this more as actual cause of war:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsuMW4yQT64

I love googling the guys you post youtube clips of explaining 'whats really happening'.

This guy apparently fled the country after finding himself buried in lawsuits from people he got to invest in his real estate ponzi scheme.

We can all play that game

https://www.occrp.org/en/the-pandora-papers/pandora-papers-reveal-offshore-holdings-of-ukrainian-president-and-his-inner-circle

[TwitchySeal]

Probably this whole war is really only a method for getting rid of Nazi's in both, Russia and the Ukraine.

If I'd have to guess, I'd blame this more as actual cause of war:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsuMW4yQT64

I love googling the guys you post youtube clips of explaining 'whats really happening'.

This guy apparently fled the country after finding himself buried in lawsuits from people he got to invest in his real estate ponzi scheme.

We can all play that game

https://www.occrp.org/en/the-pandora-papers/pandora-papers-reveal-offshore-holdings-of-ukrainian-president-and-his-inner-circle

If Zelinsky was a youtuber taking advantage of troubled white males and that real estate he owns was part of his ponzi scheme it would be the same game.

But he's the president of Ukraine...

[Branko]

If Zelinsky was a youtuber taking advantage of troubled white males and that real estate he owns was part of his ponzi scheme it would be the same game.

But he's the president of Ukraine...

You're right
That makes him much worse

[paxmao]

Probably this whole war is really only a method for getting rid of Nazi's in both, Russia and the Ukraine.

If I'd have to guess, I'd blame this more as actual cause of war:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsuMW4yQT64

I love googling the guys you post youtube clips of explaining 'whats really happening'.

This guy apparently fled the country after finding himself buried in lawsuits from people he got to invest in his real estate ponzi scheme.

We can all play that game

https://www.occrp.org/en/the-pandora-papers/pandora-papers-reveal-offshore-holdings-of-ukrainian-president-and-his-inner-circle

For what I read in your "source", it says that Zelensky had his benefits from TV parked off-shore? Hardly an accusation to be honest. But yes, Ukraine is not free from corruption, but my point is that Putin is not acting against it and that has to be for a reason.

In my view, he cannot. He is not in full control of the army.

[Branko]

For what I read in your "source", it says that Zelensky had his benefits from TV parked off-shore? Hardly an accusation to be honest. But yes, Ukraine is not free from corruption, but my point is that Putin is not acting against it and that has to be for a reason.

In my view, he cannot. He is not in full control of the army.

Acting against what?