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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2013926 times)
cypherdoc
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June 29, 2015, 07:13:02 PM
 #27721

blocks full again with TPS unacceptably high --> unconf tx set ~ 3000, more than double normal.  pools taking defensive action.  when will Blockstream devs do something?:

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cypherdoc
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June 29, 2015, 07:17:02 PM
 #27722


I'll concur with iCEBREAKER that you've got a knack at coming to exactly the wrong conclusions based on your analysis more often than not.  Such a shame.



there's a difference though.

you actually believe in the concepts you've got wrong.

iCE just seems to follow the crowd.
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June 29, 2015, 07:25:42 PM
 #27723

uh oh:

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June 29, 2015, 07:40:43 PM
 #27724

Up to the Bullard low of October 2014.

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cypherdoc
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June 29, 2015, 07:42:29 PM
 #27725

actually, i have to laugh.  as i peruse the front page of Reddit, i see nothing but articles on Greece, Italy, currency problems, bank runs, namely, international events.


And redditors foaming at the mouth whilst telling us that none of this will affect bitcoin. Forbes even got in on the game.

http://fortune.com/2015/06/29/bitcoin-price-hike-greece-grexit/

the ppl in that article are incredibly ignorant and naive.

does buying related to the events in Greece have to come from Greece alone to validate the concept of a RunToBitcoin?  of course not.  the event merely has to cause ppl from everywhere else in the world to start dumping speculative assets in exchange for Bitcoin in anticipation of a contagion event to validate the concept.  esp a selloff in the US stock mkt as one indicator.

we live in a connected world today.  global economies are intertwined.  USD hegemony is everywhere and USD foreign loans are quite prevalent.  as the peripheries unravel, it will cause a feedback loop back here.  that's the way it was in 2008, everyone was in trouble.

edit:  i wouldn't be surprised if the US or the EU were the main buyers of BTC right now.
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June 29, 2015, 07:43:47 PM
 #27726

Dow -333

no late day rally (sticksave) here:

TPTB_need_war
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June 29, 2015, 07:59:45 PM
 #27727

I don't think you see the full extent of the paradigm shift the author hints at (perhaps the author doesn't, either).

A 51% attack is one thing, sure, if that's your concern it gets more complicated but certainly not impossible to tell that, for example, there is widespread inability to get transactions through. In the worst case, a nuke (spinoff to protocol with a different mining algo, retaining the ledger) can be made to be very easy to do. No proof of miner malfeasance is needed, mere suspicion will do if it is easy enough to go through the spinoff process. If it needs to be a regular thing, it can soon be done without the user even noticing by having the wallet software be advanced enough. Let that sink in. Investors always hold the final card. Miners make investors jumpy at their own peril, no matter what the miners' motivations are. ...

Now if you'll say everyday users/sheep will just go with the flow, sure, they may and they will have their transactions censored, then, but with wallet software that makes it a snap - even unnoticeable, default - to switch to spinoffs at will so that the ledger is always maintained, the friction is reduced to practically zero. At worst we are back to a situation where people "don't realize they should be using Bitcoin," but this time it's little more than a single click on an interface to fix that.

Note made to myself. Never contract this guy to do any design work. He is entirely out-of-touch with reality.

Certainly there are tradeoffs, as investors know not to piss miners off too much or else alienate their hashing security team, but if this is just going to be another "Bitcoin is broken because 51% attack" argument where you are saying
 your system fixes this, well, that's cool but only once you show it. It doesn't mean anything to anyone just saying you have a better solution. We have no way of knowing you're right or wrong, and there are too many claiming the same.

Even if you remove my vaporware from the analysis, Bitcoin can not scale decentralized. So make your choice. Those pretending they can have both scaling and decentralization are lying or deluded or both.

Also Bitcoin can't scale efficiently even centralized because maximum network efforts are mitigated by centralization. A decentralized solution (which isn't vaporware) that scales could wipe Bitcoin Core's ass off the map.

rocks
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June 29, 2015, 08:23:36 PM
 #27728

we're getting close to 2.3 TPS in the Tradeblock post:



Just wait until the next Bitcoin pop, which could happen at any time over the next year given the coming sovereign debt crisis. TPS went up by at least 10x during the previous price bubbles. TPS will be severely and artificially constrained this time, which will both significantly degrade the user experience and this in turn will stop the bubble ramp dead in it's tracks. Losing money because of a core dev pissing match will piss off many. And then after all this happens we ramp to 8MB blocks with no issues, people will be doubly pissed the increase didn't happen in a timely manner. Core devs are going to lose the communities' faith.

Edit: There is a 2.6MB backlog currently, offering 1.1BTC in fees (mostly the minimum fee). This shows minimum fees, if allowed to scale with larger blocks, will adequately fund the mining mechanism.
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June 29, 2015, 08:46:32 PM
 #27729

Yes, it's real:

The world's largest Bitcoin exchanges tell CNNMoney they've seen a surge of business from Greece.
Ten times as many Greeks are registering to trade bitcoins on the German marketplace Bitcoin.de than usual, according to CEO Oliver Flaskaemper. Bitcoin trades from Greece have shot up 79% from their ten-week average on Bitstamp, the world's third-largest exchange.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/29/technology/greece-bitcoin/
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June 29, 2015, 09:39:54 PM
 #27730


On topic (for about the first time in my long and sordid career here)... I gotta say that PM's today are at there sucky low levels in spite of a decline in the USDX.  This surprises me more than a bit.  My sense is that there is a lot happening behind the scenes and I'm inclined to be prepared for anything as a result of the grexit or threat there-of.  Thankfully I don't have to worry about a lot of other 'vestments since I deliberately keep my 'portfolio' pretty simple.  Were I not to do so I imagine that I might have some trouble sleeping over the next block of time.


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June 29, 2015, 09:44:18 PM
 #27731

right now the only reason Greek's are getting into bitcoin is to be able to transfer their money out so its not in the banks that are closed and perhaps confiscate their wealth. Once they transfer their coins abroad they will sell them for fiat and transfer to another bank most likely(for those who dont have connections to people abroad).. however a small % will stay in bitcoin which is bullish but not as bullish as most think.

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June 29, 2015, 09:59:35 PM
 #27732

What do you mean by pools taking "defensive" action?
cypherdoc
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June 29, 2015, 09:59:39 PM
 #27733


On topic (for about the first time in my long and sordid career here)... I gotta say that PM's today are at there sucky low levels in spite of a decline in the USDX.  This surprises me more than a bit.  My sense is that there is a lot happening behind the scenes and I'm inclined to be prepared for anything as a result of the grexit or threat there-of.  Thankfully I don't have to worry about a lot of other 'vestments since I deliberately keep my 'portfolio' pretty simple.  Were I not to do so I imagine that I might have some trouble sleeping over the next block of time.



we're at the beginning of a global change in monetary regime.
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June 29, 2015, 10:20:47 PM
 #27734

right now the only reason Greek's are getting into bitcoin is to be able to transfer their money out so its not in the banks that are closed and perhaps confiscate their wealth. Once they transfer their coins abroad they will sell them for fiat and transfer to another bank most likely(for those who dont have connections to people abroad).. however a small % will stay in bitcoin which is bullish but not as bullish as most think.

at least many of those who tries bitcoin for the first time may calmly stay in the system! which's the greatest contribution
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June 29, 2015, 10:28:43 PM
 #27735


On topic (for about the first time in my long and sordid career here)... I gotta say that PM's today are at there sucky low levels in spite of a decline in the USDX.  This surprises me more than a bit.  My sense is that there is a lot happening behind the scenes and I'm inclined to be prepared for anything as a result of the grexit or threat there-of.  Thankfully I don't have to worry about a lot of other 'vestments since I deliberately keep my 'portfolio' pretty simple.  Were I not to do so I imagine that I might have some trouble sleeping over the next block of time.

Right before the '08 crisis started gold dropped a bit even though risk/volatility were rising. The reason is simple, in a debt based money system during a liquidity crisis the market becomes constrained for the cash needed to pay off debt owed. The result is the market needs to sell what it can in order to raise cash to pay off debt. This causes everything to drop (including gold) against cash as entities sell assets to raise funds.

In other words based on '08 behavior, gold unexpectedly dropping during a period of higher levels of risk (which shouldn't happen) is an indication of a coming liquidity crisis.

The problem this time is the CBs already have rates at zero and Ctrl+P turned on. They are painted in a corner this time with only fiat destruction as the way out. I have a little of GLD left in my gold portion, this as reminded me to sell that and get physical now.
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June 29, 2015, 11:22:36 PM
 #27736


On topic (for about the first time in my long and sordid career here)... I gotta say that PM's today are at there sucky low levels in spite of a decline in the USDX.  This surprises me more than a bit.  My sense is that there is a lot happening behind the scenes and I'm inclined to be prepared for anything as a result of the grexit or threat there-of.  Thankfully I don't have to worry about a lot of other 'vestments since I deliberately keep my 'portfolio' pretty simple.  Were I not to do so I imagine that I might have some trouble sleeping over the next block of time.

Right before the '08 crisis started gold dropped a bit even though risk/volatility were rising. The reason is simple, in a debt based money system during a liquidity crisis the market becomes constrained for the cash needed to pay off debt owed. The result is the market needs to sell what it can in order to raise cash to pay off debt. This causes everything to drop (including gold) against cash as entities sell assets to raise funds.

In other words based on '08 behavior, gold unexpectedly dropping during a period of higher levels of risk (which shouldn't happen) is an indication of a coming liquidity crisis.

The problem this time is the CBs already have rates at zero and Ctrl+P turned on. They are painted in a corner this time with only fiat destruction as the way out. I have a little of GLD left in my gold portion, this as reminded me to sell that and get physical now.

Yes, but I don't remember this impact preceding fairly obvious pain.  It could be that in today's more evolved shadow financial system the pain is being felt in more opaque quarters.  Or it could be that I am playing less attention now than I did back then so the pain is less apparent to me.  Or it could be that the Greek thing is no big deal and/or already priced in.  Or any number of other things may be going on.


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June 29, 2015, 11:41:45 PM
 #27737


On topic (for about the first time in my long and sordid career here)... I gotta say that PM's today are at there sucky low levels in spite of a decline in the USDX.  This surprises me more than a bit.  My sense is that there is a lot happening behind the scenes and I'm inclined to be prepared for anything as a result of the grexit or threat there-of.  Thankfully I don't have to worry about a lot of other 'vestments since I deliberately keep my 'portfolio' pretty simple.  Were I not to do so I imagine that I might have some trouble sleeping over the next block of time.

Right before the '08 crisis started gold dropped a bit even though risk/volatility were rising. The reason is simple, in a debt based money system during a liquidity crisis the market becomes constrained for the cash needed to pay off debt owed. The result is the market needs to sell what it can in order to raise cash to pay off debt. This causes everything to drop (including gold) against cash as entities sell assets to raise funds.

In other words based on '08 behavior, gold unexpectedly dropping during a period of higher levels of risk (which shouldn't happen) is an indication of a coming liquidity crisis.

The problem this time is the CBs already have rates at zero and Ctrl+P turned on. They are painted in a corner this time with only fiat destruction as the way out. I have a little of GLD left in my gold portion, this as reminded me to sell that and get physical now.

Yes, but I don't remember this impact preceding fairly obvious pain.  It could be that in today's more evolved shadow financial system the pain is being felt in more opaque quarters.  Or it could be that I am playing less attention now than I did back then so the pain is less apparent to me.  Or it could be that the Greek thing is no big deal and/or already priced in.  Or any number of other things may be going on.

Gold slowly ramped from the ~$270 low in 2001 to just touching $1000 in March 2008, after which it began to break down and spiked down to around $730 on Sept 11 2008 just before the stock market crashed. This was a >25% fall putting gold solidly into bear market status.

The stock market began to break down the week after gold touch $730s, during which time risk spiked and gold quickly rose to back to the $860 range, only to fall again in Oct after the initial stock market crash as everything in the world crashed in price. That is very high volatility for gold. I remember at the time it distinctly felt that gold broke just before the market, and then recovered as the go to safe asset as the larger stock market crashed.
cypherdoc
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June 29, 2015, 11:49:01 PM
 #27738

annoying as hell:

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June 29, 2015, 11:52:37 PM
 #27739


Yes, but I don't remember this impact preceding fairly obvious pain.  It could be that in today's more evolved shadow financial system the pain is being felt in more opaque quarters.  Or it could be that I am playing less attention now than I did back then so the pain is less apparent to me.  Or it could be that the Greek thing is no big deal and/or already priced in.  Or any number of other things may be going on.

Gold slowly ramped from the ~$270 low in 2001 to just touching $1000 in March 2008, after which it began to break down and spiked down to around $730 on Sept 11 2008 just before the stock market crashed. This was a >25% fall putting gold solidly into bear market status.

The stock market began to break down the week after gold touch $730s, during which time risk spiked and gold quickly rose to back to the $860 range, only to fall again in Oct after the initial stock market crash as everything in the world crashed in price. That is very high volatility for gold. I remember at the time it distinctly felt that gold broke just before the market, and then recovered as the go to safe asset as the larger stock market crashed.

Thinking back, maybe you are right-ish.  I was in PMs and my friends were, of course, in mainstream solutions.  I do recall from the various water-cooler talk being down when they were not, but I remember being happier then them near the bottom.  I do recall clearly the 'excuse' (probably accurate) that people were putting their hands on anything of remaining value and that took PM's down during the event.

That said, PM's were volatile since I got involved around the time of 9/11 and the Central Asia war stuff that it morphed into (and as a result of my educating myself about monetary systems to figure out what was going on with it...since 9/11 was clearly not a attributable to handful of Muslims hiding out in caves half way around the world.)  The volatility (which was not a slow and steady ramp-up) may or may not have been a result of people who were in the know reacting (or front-running) economic problems that came to a (probably manufactured) head in 2008.


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June 29, 2015, 11:56:50 PM
 #27740

"85% chance that Greece is forced to leave the Euro zone".

oops.

Don't worry, because "The Financial Crisis Is Over."

Dow futures -255

Good.  More money printing quantitative easing will lead to an explosion of broadband to the home.

if you're serious then that's a great argument for block size increases.

I'm obviously mocking the irreconcilable tension between Gavin's POV and your own.

That knife will continue to be twisted, until you at least acknowledge the spectacular hypocrisy of endorsing a conclusion based on a premise ("financial crisis is over") and an assumption ('blue sky ahead') with which you famously disagree and spend hours every week contradicting/disproving.

The people in Greece/Ukraine/Venezuela/Argentina/Florida/etc. who need BTC the most are not going to see Gavin's predicted home broadband explosion as their countries' economies implode.

Good job on the ventriloquism; it really does seem like two entirely different people talking when one side of your mouth endlessly and breathlessly pimps Bitcoin as the new gold/Visa/fiat/Starbucks-gift-card, while the other side FUDs on about "choking strangled Cripplecoin."   Wink


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