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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
1.  yes
2.  no

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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804987 times)
cypherdoc
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July 02, 2015, 04:15:15 AM
 #28041

hey TPTB, you never  commented on my revised attack:


Let's try this one: non economic actor decides to spam persistently at little cost to them (minimum fees or even 0 fees) as blocks get close to being filled by real activity, say starting like where we are right now, at the 50-60% level. Fees for regular users skyrocket making use untenable.
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cypherdoc
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July 02, 2015, 04:16:41 AM
 #28042

My thesis (even when I started this thread under my prior user name) has been that TPTB are intentionally destroying the nation-state central banks in order to make the world dependent on and clamor for one-world political sharing arrangement where the one-world institutions would provide discipline and oversight on the nations which had proven they could not manage their own affairs. But this is the classic Hegelian dialectic diversion, because we know damn well that the same power brokers who control the BIS also control the Fed and the ECB. So this is clearly creative destruction by TPTB:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11704051/The-world-is-defenseless-against-the-next-financial-crisis-warns-BIS.html

The world is defenceless against the next financial crisis, warns BIS
Monetary policymakers have run out of room to fight the next crisis with interest rates unable to go lower, the BIS warns

The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.
The so-called central bank of central banks launched a scatching critique of global monetary policy in its annual report. The BIS claimed that central banks have backed themselves into a corner after repeatedly cutting interest rates to shore up their economies.
These low interest rates have in turn fuelled economic booms, encouraging excessive risk taking. Booms have then turned to busts, which policymakers have responded to with even lower rates.
Claudio Borio, head of the organisation’s monetary and economic department, said: “Persistent exceptionally low rates reflect the central banks’ and market participants’ response to the unusually weak post-crisis recovery as they fumble in the dark in search of new certainties.”


i already posted that article here.
OROBTC
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July 02, 2015, 04:21:01 AM
 #28043

...

TBTP

Yes, much of my motivation to buy gold and other PMs has been based on fear, fear that our financial system is (will be) FUBAR, with very bad consequences to everyone, but more so to the unprepared.

Gold is part of what I hold, and I have been a small-time buyer of gold since the 1980s.  I am well diversified outside of PMs, they in total are less than 12% of my net assets.

Much of my diversification desire is based on the fact that I have been a lousy predictor of the future.  I have no idea of which scenario(s) will play out.  Some of them may be very ugly.  If things do get very ugly, gold will be a part of the solution (perhaps, perhaps not).  Throughout history, there has always been someone around who will take your gold.  They would have to confiscate the guns before they try for the gold, there will be resistance.

[My comments in no way diminish any work you are doing re making our future more secure via the Knowledge Age]  <--- Smiley

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cypherdoc

There is a BIG DIFFERENCE between gold miners and gold held in your warm hand...  Miners are stocks, and often miners are very poorly run.  Mines can also be confiscated easily by the countries where they are located.

The fate of actual gold vs. the gold miners is likely to be very different as time goes by.

There is a wonderful quote by Mark Twain to the effect of "A mine is hole on the ground with liar on top."  I have visited gold mines, and I own no gold miners.


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July 02, 2015, 04:42:45 AM
 #28044

cypherdoc

There is a BIG DIFFERENCE between gold miners and gold held in your warm hand...  Miners are stocks, and often miners are very poorly run.  Mines can also be confiscated easily by the countries where they are located.

The fate of actual gold vs. the gold miners is likely to be very different as time goes by.

There is a wonderful quote by Mark Twain to the effect of "A mine is hole on the ground with liar on top."  I have visited gold mines, and I own no gold miners.



stocks are the leveraged play on gold itself.  they move in the same direction with miners accentuating and usually leading the movement.  there is no reason to suspect anything different for the coming move.
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July 02, 2015, 06:23:01 AM
 #28045

I am well diversified outside of PMs, they in total are less than 12% of my net assets.

That is a sane level imo.

Throughout history, there has always been someone around who will take your gold.  They would have to confiscate the guns before they try for the gold, there will be resistance.

I am not asserting they will come take your gold. I have not written that. I am saying that gold you can't trade without being expropriated when you trade it, is the same as having a zero value (assuming the taxation rate is roughly 100%[1]).

My point is what will you trade it for when there is no cash?

And of those things you can trade it for, which of those won't be registered with the government (e.g. real estate, cars).

Also when unemployment reaches 50% and the governments are hiring people by the millions to be snitches and do sting operations, how will you trade while hiding from the government?

If you can't hide from the government, then how can you stop the government from expropriating it via taxation?

Another very effective way to attack goldbugs who try to exchange their gold, is to drive the economy into such a mess that crime becomes rampant, thus most trades will go down as muggings. Oh so you carry your guns to the trade, and the mob brings bigger guns to the party. An arms race back to the era of mobsters... I can be fairly certain how quickly you will tire of that type of world and throw in the towel on gold leaving it to sit in your basement forever useless. You could hold it for 20 years like those who held from $850 in 1980 down to $250 by the turn of the century, losing 1000% gains in stocks and bonds interim.

Also once the rule of law is gone, the government can do basically anything they want to. So expect bullshit such as Civil Asset Forfeiture on your gold when you trade it at a registered dealer. Meaning they seize your income from the trade declaring it money laundering or whatever and you are unable to disprove or win a fight in the kangeroo courts.

There was a former US Treasury official who was quoted by an anonymous source, "We will burn the fingers of goldbugs up to their armpits". Perhaps that might have been Robert Rubin.

[1] I don't assume the tax rate will be 100%, but I think they may force savings into nationalized accounts, meaning in effect 100% expropriation. Also note that that a 90% tax (I believe upper tax rates reached this level in the USA prior to WW2) on capital gains with 500% capital gain, is 72% effective tax on purchasing power (assuming gold's rise reflects the loss in purchasing power of the dollar which may not be the case). Also if you can't prove your tax basis, they might tax as if your tax basis is zero.

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July 02, 2015, 06:40:10 AM
 #28046

for anyone with any respect left for marcus_of_augustus, take a look at this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3bpbqv/woohoo_check_out_the_size_of_block_363270/csofmu6

[–]marcus_of_augustus 2 points 7 hours ago
 
Do they still give gold stars for 5 year olds?
You should be very careful with all those cold wallets, things could go very badly if family and friends are centralising trust in one questionable opsec practise.

permalinkembedsaveparentreportgive goldreply

I used to, but his tone has changed over the last 4 years. I'm not even convinced it's the same person on the other end. Certainly a lot more bitter and hostile.

marcus_of_augustus seems to me like more or less the same careful, knowledgeable, and competent person I've seen all along.  I have a recollection of his viewpoint on something (don't remember exactly what) being somewhat disappointing to me a year or so ago.  Lately I've been very pleasantly surprised that he is totally 'getting it' so-to-speak.

I also notice that marcus_of_agustus isn't taking cypherdoc abuse laying down and is doing the community a service in the process.  I have no interest and no clue about the Hashfast thing, but it seems to be pretty ugly and a lot of people seem to have gotten taken to the cleaners while certain others (cough, cough) seem to have done very well indeed.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1105722.0

I'll be interested to hear cypherdoc's side of the story...unless he is to busy with certain other 'projects' of course.

The PSA that marcus_of_agustus did in looking into the pseudo-fork of XT a while ago was quite interesting to someone who is technical and familiar with constructing software and I, for one, thank him for the effort.


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July 02, 2015, 06:46:14 AM
 #28047

i already posted that article here.

I know I had seen someone post it because that is why I opened that page lol, but I couldn't remember where (not senile just in rush with too much multitasking). Apologies for not quoting your post. I normally try to do that (even with my antagonists).


hey TPTB, you never  commented on my revised attack:


Let's try this one: non economic actor decides to spam persistently at little cost to them (minimum fees or even 0 fees) as blocks get close to being filled by real activity, say starting like where we are right now, at the 50-60% level. Fees for regular users skyrocket making use untenable.

I think the fees for other users will only rise to just higher than the fees in the spam in order to displace the spam from the priority queue (assuming miners order their mempool by transaction fee then first seen, with first seen taking precedence over transaction fee only when there is a double-spend).

I was pondering if this could be employed against zero-confirmation transactions, but it seems not to be the case.

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July 02, 2015, 07:41:40 AM
 #28048

for anyone with any respect left for marcus_of_augustus, take a look at this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3bpbqv/woohoo_check_out_the_size_of_block_363270/csofmu6

[–]marcus_of_augustus 2 points 7 hours ago
 
Do they still give gold stars for 5 year olds?
You should be very careful with all those cold wallets, things could go very badly if family and friends are centralising trust in one questionable opsec practise.

permalinkembedsaveparentreportgive goldreply

I used to, but his tone has changed over the last 4 years. I'm not even convinced it's the same person on the other end. Certainly a lot more bitter and hostile.

marcus_of_augustus seems to me like more or less the same careful, knowledgeable, and competent person I've seen all along.  I have a recollection of his viewpoint on something (don't remember exactly what) being somewhat disappointing to me a year or so ago.  Lately I've been very pleasantly surprised that he is totally 'getting it' so-to-speak.

I also notice that marcus_of_agustus isn't taking cypherdoc abuse laying down and is doing the community a service in the process.  I have no interest and no clue about the Hashfast thing, but it seems to be pretty ugly and a lot of people seem to have gotten taken to the cleaners while certain others (cough, cough) seem to have done very well indeed.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1105722.0

I'll be interested to hear cypherdoc's side of the story...unless he is to busy with certain other 'projects' of course.

The PSA that marcus_of_agustus did in looking into the pseudo-fork of XT a while ago was quite interesting to someone who is technical and familiar with constructing software and I, for one, thank him for the effort.



Actually quite in character for MOA I'm afraid to say and that everyone is getting to see.. As well for  you to take his wild one sided accusations and run with them. It should be apparent this has alot to do with my position on the block size debate.

All I have to say is that the allegations are without merit and i expect to win.
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July 02, 2015, 08:29:21 AM
 #28049

The PSA that marcus_of_agustus did in looking into the pseudo-fork of XT a while ago was quite interesting to someone who is technical and familiar with constructing software and I, for one, thank him for the effort.

It would be good to have a pointer to this work, I'm very interested in.   

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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July 02, 2015, 09:03:30 AM
 #28050

The PSA that marcus_of_agustus did in looking into the pseudo-fork of XT a while ago was quite interesting to someone who is technical and familiar with constructing software and I, for one, thank him for the effort.

It would be good to have a pointer to this work, I'm very interested in.  

I did a quick manual scan of his posts and ran across this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1081412.msg11546556#msg11546556

Normally one is pretty careful to fork in a particular way in a revision control system as they tend to have methods for analyzing 3-way diffs and such.  Typically that is what one wants in order to understand the code more easily.  The converse is true as well.

I think MofA did a post on this thread also and mentioned that one of the bug fixe roll-backs was the re-addition of pkg.m4 or some such.  m4 is a fairly powerful macro package widely used in software construction tools.  (autoconf uses m4 macros to construct a portable shell script normally named 'configure'.)  This one apperently influence how code under construction finds libraries for inclusion or use.  Typically when code is compiled, much of it tends to come from external libraries.  This can be done with various kinds of linking.  Unless one is paying close attention, it is possible to be linking against libraries that one doesn't even know exist on a system.  In a general sense this is a very common cause of some of the worst security failures over the years.  One of the most pernicious aspects of such a failure is that the source code can be entirely clean and innocent but compiled in might be some bad code that one didn't even know existed.  The danger is, presumably, why pkg.m4 was removed from core.


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July 02, 2015, 11:58:40 AM
 #28051

The PSA that marcus_of_agustus did in looking into the pseudo-fork of XT a while ago was quite interesting to someone who is technical and familiar with constructing software and I, for one, thank him for the effort.

It would be good to have a pointer to this work, I'm very interested in.  

I did a quick manual scan of his posts and ran across this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1081412.msg11546556#msg11546556

Normally one is pretty careful to fork in a particular way in a revision control system as they tend to have methods for analyzing 3-way diffs and such.  Typically that is what one wants in order to understand the code more easily.  The converse is true as well.

I think MofA did a post on this thread also and mentioned that one of the bug fixe roll-backs was the re-addition of pkg.m4 or some such.  m4 is a fairly powerful macro package widely used in software construction tools.  (autoconf uses m4 macros to construct a portable shell script normally named 'configure'.)  This one apperently influence how code under construction finds libraries for inclusion or use.  Typically when code is compiled, much of it tends to come from external libraries.  This can be done with various kinds of linking.  Unless one is paying close attention, it is possible to be linking against libraries that one doesn't even know exist on a system.  In a general sense this is a very common cause of some of the worst security failures over the years.  One of the most pernicious aspects of such a failure is that the source code can be entirely clean and innocent but compiled in might be some bad code that one didn't even know existed.  The danger is, presumably, why pkg.m4 was removed from core.



thanks for the link and the analysis.

I was aware that XT wasn't a proper fork and even of the m4 re-addition (*).  

I was hoping for something more detailed, though.

Especially because XT is not a git fork and so it's not so easy to track changes.

(*) About the latter I have always wondered how they are able to produce
reproducible builds when you they have to link binary to external dyn libraries

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
cypherdoc
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July 02, 2015, 02:56:22 PM
 #28052

for anyone with any respect left for marcus_of_augustus, take a look at this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3bpbqv/woohoo_check_out_the_size_of_block_363270/csofmu6

[–]marcus_of_augustus 2 points 7 hours ago
 
Do they still give gold stars for 5 year olds?
You should be very careful with all those cold wallets, things could go very badly if family and friends are centralising trust in one questionable opsec practise.

permalinkembedsaveparentreportgive goldreply

I used to, but his tone has changed over the last 4 years. I'm not even convinced it's the same person on the other end. Certainly a lot more bitter and hostile.

marcus_of_augustus seems to me like more or less the same careful, knowledgeable, and competent person I've seen all along.  I have a recollection of his viewpoint on something (don't remember exactly what) being somewhat disappointing to me a year or so ago.  Lately I've been very pleasantly surprised that he is totally 'getting it' so-to-speak.

I also notice that marcus_of_agustus isn't taking cypherdoc abuse laying down and is doing the community a service in the process.  I have no interest and no clue about the Hashfast thing, but it seems to be pretty ugly and a lot of people seem to have gotten taken to the cleaners while certain others (cough, cough) seem to have done very well indeed.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1105722.0

I'll be interested to hear cypherdoc's side of the story...unless he is to busy with certain other 'projects' of course.

The PSA that marcus_of_agustus did in looking into the pseudo-fork of XT a while ago was quite interesting to someone who is technical and familiar with constructing software and I, for one, thank him for the effort.



i found this amusing.  why is it that ppl like you always see negatives everywhere you look?:


For some reason nobody seems to want to believe that cypherdoc anything but a well meaning rube.  I have that impulse myself for reasons I don't fully understand, though I've entertained alternate hypothesis now and then.  I have at times wondered aloud why cypherdoc seems to take a hiatus in times of stress then come back strong seemingly newly armed with fresh talking points and angles to attack a problem.  Relatively recently I pondered if he had vanished to some war-room meeting to see who was going to eat the main losses in some endeavor as I recall, but I don't remember the details (and am to lazy to go through my posts.)  I'm pretty sure it was associated with someone who would lose out if sidechains or LN went live since that is the focus of my interest lately and it could damage the hell out of a range of other alternate solutions to Bitcoin's problems.



perhaps it's b/c after posting here for so long i decide to take a break for a day or so due to a social event or work?  no, there has to be a conspiracy!

in the meantime, gold going off the cliff:

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July 02, 2015, 02:58:52 PM
 #28053


Actually quite in character for MOA I'm afraid to say and that everyone is getting to see.. As well for  you to take his wild one sided accusations and run with them. It should be apparent this has alot to do with my position on the block size debate.

All I have to say is that the allegations are without merit and i expect to win.

HolyFuckinShit!  If I nailed it on this post my head will truly explode in awe of my surpreme analytical abilities.

Edit:  Looking more carefully, I have to admit that Anonymint deserves the credit, though I did muse about the existence and motivations of shills as stated prior to his post.


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July 02, 2015, 03:13:09 PM
 #28054

...
in the meantime, gold going off the cliff:
...

If one can correctly deduce that there is manipulation going on it can open up possibilities.  Did I happen to mention getting some of my BTC sales in in the 4-figure range?

As for gold, I may be in the buyer's market again for unrelated reasons.  Price is falling?  Bring it on (as long as it reflects in the phyzzz and isn't some pure paper-market bs.)


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July 02, 2015, 03:19:36 PM
 #28055

What is this spinoff controversy? That reminds me that Gmax posted here a while back when I was off doing social things. Worth replying to? I'm not sure how to find his comments without looking through perhaps 100 pages by hand.


--

Meanwhile, relevant to the thread title: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3bsfw3/barry_silbert_the_gold_vs_bitcoin_battle_is_going/

thanks for the link, it's very reasonable article

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July 02, 2015, 03:27:44 PM
 #28056

look out:

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July 02, 2015, 04:36:06 PM
 #28057


Actually quite in character for MOA I'm afraid to say and that everyone is getting to see.. As well for  you to take his wild one sided accusations and run with them. It should be apparent this has alot to do with my position on the block size debate.

All I have to say is that the allegations are without merit and i expect to win.

HolyFuckinShit!  If I nailed it on this post my head will truly explode in awe of my surpreme analytical abilities.

Edit:  Looking more carefully, I have to admit that Anonymint deserves the credit, though I did muse about the existence and motivations of shills as stated prior to his post.

All I know is I can't get cypherdoc's google ads to disappear. They follow me on every computer I open. He must have some powerful friends, if I can't figure out how they are tracking me every where I go and displaying his ad just to make me paranoid.

Did I mention I am losing my sanity?

Or am I leading you where I want you to go.

Seriously though Cypherdoc is either one really bored eyedoc, or he's shilling and not chillin'. I've grown fond of the chap (his Sesame Street BOOs and all in a Stockholm Syndrome), and hoping he can work his way out of the mess (as long as it includes reasonable justice without punitive, spiteful injustice).

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July 02, 2015, 04:43:03 PM
 #28058

CVX continuing to go off the cliff:

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July 02, 2015, 04:45:56 PM
 #28059


Actually quite in character for MOA I'm afraid to say and that everyone is getting to see.. As well for  you to take his wild one sided accusations and run with them. It should be apparent this has alot to do with my position on the block size debate.

All I have to say is that the allegations are without merit and i expect to win.

HolyFuckinShit!  If I nailed it on this post my head will truly explode in awe of my surpreme analytical abilities.

Edit:  Looking more carefully, I have to admit that Anonymint deserves the credit, though I did muse about the existence and motivations of shills as stated prior to his post.

All I know is I can't get cypherdoc's google ads to disappear. They follow me on every computer I open. He must have some powerful friends, if I can't figure out how they are tracking me every where I go and displaying his ad just to make me paranoid.

Did I mention I am losing my sanity?

Or am I leading you where I want you to go.

Seriously though Cypherdoc is either one really bored eyedoc, or he's shilling and not chillin'. I've grown fond of the chap (his Sesame Street BOOs and all in a Stockholm Syndrome), and hoping he can work his way out of the mess (as long as it includes reasonable justice without punitive, spiteful injustice).

i'm following YOU!

BOO!!!



no, seriously man, c'mon up sometime & i'll see what i can do for that blind eye of yours. Wink
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July 02, 2015, 05:03:27 PM
 #28060

Starting to believe more and more that September will be SHTF month.
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