Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[rpietila]

Bitcoin collapsing. God UP.

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[Peter R]

Bitcoin collapsing. God UP.

He's a man of his word.  He said he wouldn't post till bitcoin was in the $500s and look at us now. 

Nice call, Risto.

[wachtwoord]

Wow, you actually believe the US has the gold?

no, he said they will have to purchase the physical

But he seems to focus on transportation and also seems to think this will happen fast.

"Fast"?  Well, before 7 years is up, if you call that fast.
It is in the bullion bank's interest to drive the price down as quickly as they can to get it done, but the faster they go the more expensive it will be.

Logistically, it could be done in a week if they had the gold at hand.
The point is I dont know when.  You don't know, and we shouldn't expect to be told ahead of delivery.
Someone will know, but that isn't us.

I expect them to take much more than 7 years (if they ever return it at all). They will just extend the paid arrangement with Germany, who know what time it is as well.

[wachtwoord]

So now sell the Lambo and be the first worldwide who made many on buying a new Lambo and flipping it within a couple of weeks

[miscreanity]

ASIC saturation is a point to keep an eye out for but I don't think it is here yet. 

Agreed, we still have at least two rounds of feature size improvements left before gains top out.

As far as the dip into the $400s, the volume looks to me as though we may have seen the brunt of exhaustion selling. I'd start buying anywhere below $550 now.

Back to keeping an eye on gold and silver...

[NewLiberty]

Wow, you actually believe the US has the gold?

no, he said they will have to purchase the physical

But he seems to focus on transportation and also seems to think this will happen fast.

"Fast"?  Well, before 7 years is up, if you call that fast.
It is in the bullion bank's interest to drive the price down as quickly as they can to get it done, but the faster they go the more expensive it will be.

Logistically, it could be done in a week if they had the gold at hand.
The point is I dont know when.  You don't know, and we shouldn't expect to be told ahead of delivery.
Someone will know, but that isn't us.

I expect them to take much more than 7 years (if they ever return it at all). They will just extend the paid arrangement with Germany, who know what time it is as well.

I suspect that the crisis of confidence such action would create would be more expensive than the gold itself (and also make the gold more expensive).

[wachtwoord]

Wow, you actually believe the US has the gold?

no, he said they will have to purchase the physical

But he seems to focus on transportation and also seems to think this will happen fast.

"Fast"?  Well, before 7 years is up, if you call that fast.
It is in the bullion bank's interest to drive the price down as quickly as they can to get it done, but the faster they go the more expensive it will be.

Logistically, it could be done in a week if they had the gold at hand.
The point is I dont know when.  You don't know, and we shouldn't expect to be told ahead of delivery.
Someone will know, but that isn't us.

I expect them to take much more than 7 years (if they ever return it at all). They will just extend the paid arrangement with Germany, who know what time it is as well.

I suspect that the crisis of confidence such action would create would be more expensive than the gold itself (and also make the gold more expensive).

Well, the crisis in confidence should have happened when they were unable to return Germany's gold when they asked for it. Nothing happened so apparently people don't care or comprehend.

[justusranvier]

Very good call. I thought it might get down this low but never this fast. BTC be crazy!

I don't think declines can be slow and gradual like they were in April-November 2011 any more. Too much has changed about the ecosystem since then.

[vokain]

Very good call. I thought it might get down this low but never this fast. BTC be crazy!

I don't think declines can be slow and gradual like they were in April-November 2011 any more. Too much has changed about the ecosystem since then.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operant_conditioning

[Peter Lambert]

Well, the crisis in confidence should have happened when they were unable to return Germany's gold when they asked for it. Nothing happened so apparently people don't care or comprehend.

Which way should such event push the price? On the one hand we find out that the government is lying about their gold holdings, so what can we trust about gold? On the other hand, it appears the government has to buy up some huge amount of physical gold to give to the Germans, so that should raise the price, right?

[molecular]

Yes it is more complicated.  Such is true of everything.

I think this recent article sums up the relationship between QE1 to QE3, Taper and M1 quite eloquently. Nevertheless, the world is full of opinions on Gold's trajectory.

I think it makes the most sense to carefully watch the general opinion on investing in paper and other assets and monitor if and to which degree trust in the system starts to wane. Then and only then, PM's will have their finest moments. This moment could still be years away.

Agreed.
I'd wager the trajectory is downward until Germany has their gold back.

2020?

Sooner.  US said 7 years, but we won't be informed until after it occurs, which will expected to be ahead of that time.
They could do it in 2 Jet loads, (as soon as they buy the physical from driving down the price of the paper gold).
It could be happening now, I doubt security will allow any advance notice.

Couldn't they just buy the gold in germany and save on jet fuel?

[wachtwoord]

Well, the crisis in confidence should have happened when they were unable to return Germany's gold when they asked for it. Nothing happened so apparently people don't care or comprehend.

Which way should such event push the price? On the one hand we find out that the government is lying about their gold holdings, so what can we trust about gold? On the other hand, it appears the government has to buy up some huge amount of physical gold to give to the Germans, so that should raise the price, right?

On the one hand there is less gold than previously thought on the other the government has to buy a huge amount. So two reasons for the price to explode upwards (and the stock market to collapse as the trust in US government should be dead because of this with an instant downgrade of their debt).

I don't hold any PMs and I do have a stock portfolio btw

[molecular]

Never trust a proudhon.

Price can't go much below USD$200 now without starting to squeeze margins on a large portion of miners. The next wave of input cost pressure should hit at around 50-100,000,000,000 difficulty, just as it helped kick off the price rise after the 100-200,000,000 level. As long as we get back to business as usual after a few more bouts of panic selling, that is.

War is on, got popcorn?

2011->GPU saturation, available now
Difficulty even declined for several adjustment periods.

April 2013->ASIC adoption beginnings
Difficulty continued to climb until price caught back up.

Now->ASIC nearing saturation?  Available now.

This is a face flag event, not that proudhon isn't trust worthy, he is testing people's trust in Bitcoin.

ASIC saturation is a point to keep an eye out for but I don't think it is here yet. 

This is all rather fascinating, lots of main stream media calling Bitcoin a scam yet this stuff doesn't filter through the Bitcoin blogosphere..

Note following the link, Mark Williams is under the impression Bitcoin is a hot potato and is oblivious to the reasons most have invested in the first place.

Interesting to watch the Krugman video bit linked below that article. It seems Krugman got a little softer on Bitcoin:

I basically think that [bitcoin] is a digital version for gold cranks, but [..] it's hard to not be a little bit shaken when it goes on this long and of course we know that's always true of bubbles. But still, I mean: in principle, you can have assets which are considered valuable even though there's nothing backing them because of the self-fulfilling expectations.

Now, we don't actually think that fiat money is like that, because ultimately that's backed by the fact that you pay taxes with it. Fiat money, if you like, is backed by men with guns. Bitcoin is not. So why should this thing have any value. And of course it doesn't pay interest.

On the other hand, maybe the ability to do transactions that you think are invisible, after what we learned about the NSA I wouldn't bet on it, makes some of these people willing to hold. So, there is a case that says this actually might make sense. I very much doubt that that case is what's actually driving the value of Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin is being driven by the fact that it sounds impressive and people think there must be something there.

But,... who knows?

[User705]

Very good call. I thought it might get down this low but never this fast. BTC be crazy!

I don't think declines can be slow and gradual like they were in April-November 2011 any more. Too much has changed about the ecosystem since then.

It would've been gradual if not for the number 1 exchange in the world basically closing down.  Then again seems like just another regular day in the bitcoin world.   

[molecular]

Very good call. I thought it might get down this low but never this fast. BTC be crazy!

I don't think declines can be slow and gradual like they were in April-November 2011 any more. Too much has changed about the ecosystem since then.

It would've been gradual if not for the number 1 exchange in the world basically closing down.  Then again seems like just another regular day in the bitcoin world.   

In that case I'm quite glad it closed down. No time in Bitcoin history did I hate more than the fall of 2011. No need to repeat, better get it over with quickly.
 

[marcus_of_augustus]

Alot of people were asking me about btc when it was over 1000 if now was a good time to buy. I said if you hold for the ling term you will do fine but hope it corrects to $500 or so then buy.

A lot if people are now trying to buy however i wonder if we are back to 800 before their money hits.

I agree ... it seemed to me there was a quite a bit of smart money lining up along the sidelines waiting for this dip. The volume on bitstamp right at the low bears that out somewhat.

Still think we are on target for >~1000 circa march-april 2014

[Peter Lambert]

A lot if people are now trying to buy however i wonder if we are back to 800 before their money hits.

I remember just a couple months ago when the silk road siezure news hit the price dropped, I tried to get some money in to buy bitcoins and by the time my money got to the exchange the price was already above where it was before the news.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Here's a wild conspiracy theory , if true it could be first instance of bitcoin being used in geopolitical diplomacy:

Joe Biden was recently on a 'trip' to China, soon after arriving back two major things took place

1) the chinese bluster and rhetoric over the Senkaku Islands no-fly zone stopped and the situation defused quite a bit

2) china announced official crackdown on bitcoin trading and shutting off fiat flows into BTC exchanges

Could it be that the Chinese got their way in claiming territorial rights over the Islands and in exchange gave the US paper cartel a bitcoin crackdown?

Maybe even the whole chinese ramp job on bitcoin since May, baidu, etc was designed to extract concessions from the US in the same way the Senkaku bluster was ... ? Just some wild musings. There is no surer way of getting US geopolitical attention that proposing alternate currency systems ... witness Iranian non-USD oil exchange, Gadhaffi's pan-African gold currency plan, Saddam Iraq oil-gold, the list is long and bloody

[Erdogan]

Here's a wild conspiracy theory , if true it could be first instance of bitcoin being used in geopolitical diplomacy:

Joe Biden was recently on a 'trip' to China, soon after arriving back two major things took place

1) the chinese bluster and rhetoric over the Senkaku Islands no-fly zone stopped and the situation defused quite a bit

2) china announced official crackdown on bitcoin trading and shutting off fiat flows into BTC exchanges

Could it be that the Chinese got their way in claiming territorial rights over the Islands and in exchange gave the US paper cartel a bitcoin crackdown?

Maybe event he whole chinese ramp job on bitcoin since May, baidu, etc was designed to extract concessions from the US in the same way the Senkaku bluster was ... ? Just some wild musings. There is no surer way of getting US geopolitical attention that proposing alternate currency systems ... witness Iranian oil exchange, Gadhaffi's pan-African gold currency plan, Saddam Iraq oil-gold, the list is long and bloody

i highly doubt anyone high up in the us govt thinks btc is anything but a ponzi or a bubble.

Hanlons razor might be a hurdle, but they certainly have the resources, the people, the connections and the low morale to do it.

Another question is, would not the effect only be short lived? Maybe they only plan with a weekly horizon.

We will know later I guess, the main problem with these things is that you need the information real time, not 50 years later.

[justusranvier]