[XMR] Monero Speculation

[jehst]

Depending if you calculate from high/lows or closes, and from the December low or February low, the mighty 2nd Fibonacci retracement level from the latest megamove is either in 217k, 220k, 220k or 225k.

I am rather sure that we will visit that zone before resuming uptrend. The price action has not been very promising so this is the situation.

Also I have a strong feeling that people wishing for <200 will be disappointed.

Conduct your own DD. It's unlikely that I would trade anyway.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg11119004#msg11119004

Dude...that's what I was saying.

[1714755410]

1714755410

[smooth]

I believe the prospect of botnet mining, which is very difficult to prove either true or untrue, is a negative and a problem. It is a lesser problem though than the ones in Dash, or the ones in Bitcoin currently.

If it were perceived to be prevalent, it might be a PR problem.  The technical factors which facilitate it are actually a huge plus, as they are proven conducive to decentralization.  The economics described elsewhere tend to indicate that the perception is larger than the reality.  In terms of market action, it helps to distribute coins, and botnets are relatively unlikely to hoard.  And it is precisely the robust supply which has enabled us to accumulate in the early phase, so long-term holders have all benefited substantially from any impact of botnet mining.  

In the end, I find it difficult to feel very bad about the reality.  Perception is another question, but the perception will align to reality over time, in all likelihood.

Simply by accounting for known non-bot hashrate, I can entirely disprove the dominance of botnets during the first few months of the coin, which was (and still is) a frequent claim made by opponents trying to FUD. Specifically I can identify roughly 80-90% of the hash rate as being known non-bot miners (and certainly well over 50% as a bare minimum). Likewise, the current economics don't support the hash rate being dominated by botnets presently (the profitability is too high).

I can't disprove the presence of botnets, and in fact I believe there were/are bots. So I'm not sure whether this makes any real difference to the reputational issue. As long as there are some bots, which will likely be always, they can be blown out of proportion and used to FUD.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I hate to say this but sub 0.001 is now a possibility.

[Anon136]

I hate to say this but sub 0.001 is now a possibility.

0.000 is a possibility. so what. no risk no reward.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I hate to say this but sub 0.001 is now a possibility.

0.000 is a possibility. so what. no risk no reward.

I have sold over 95 % of my coins and I have no intention to rebuy them unless I do not get them cheap enough.
If Monero ever moons big time, I am making nice money even with less than 5 % of my initial investment.
Funny thing I do not even have any temptation to buy coins at these prices.
And I sold them long time ago, not today or yesterday.

[0nlyBTC]

I bought more. To hell with the down trend.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Now it is time to focus on other things than buying the coin. No idea of catching the falling knife especially when the knife has not fallen that much.
Personally what I have done is to pay all the bills and stacking up fiat.
I am also doing other project so I don't have that much time for trolling here and of course, buying the coin.
No point in buying a coin that only has so high probability to go down at this point.
Better to buy when the price is low, and not necessarily even at low price if it is on the way to 0.

[generalizethis]

Now it is time to focus on other things than buying the coin. No idea of catching the falling knife especially when the knife has not fallen that much.
Personally what I have done is to pay all the bills and stacking up fiat.
I am also doing other project so I don't have that much time for trolling here and of course, buying the coin.
No point in buying a coin that only has so high probability to go down at this point.
Better to buy when the price is low, and not necessarily even at low price if it is on the way to 0.

I always thought you were a troll trying to manipulate the price, but to be so blatant--subtlety is not your art.

[dEBRUYNE]

I hate to say this but sub 0.001 is now a possibility.

You're really a disgrace for this community. Suddenly you turned from Monero will surpass Bitcoin in a few years to permabear and you're affecting new (potential) investors with this blatant troll-like price manipulation. If you don't have anything useful to say, please stay away here.

[Oscilson]

I hate to say this but sub 0.001 is now a possibility.

You're really a disgrace for this community. Suddenly you turned from Monero will surpass Bitcoin in a few years to permabear and you're affecting new (potential) investors with this blatant troll-like price manipulation. If you don't have anything useful to say, please stay away here.

Sub 0.001 is possible, but if Monero is being developed actively, it will go back up sooner or later.

[binaryFate]

I don't have that much time for trolling here

Good news, go away.

[smooth]

I don't have that much time for trolling here

Good news, go away.

Let's try to keep the personal attacks out of here. Agree or disagree with TrueCryptonaire he was expressing an opinion about price action. That's fair game for the thread..

[Wexlike]

An opinion that changed 180° in a couple of hours?

It is not his opinion, he just tells us that he is trying to sell or is trying to buy cheaper. There is zero information in his postings beside his side in the market.

I can't read his trash anymore.

[smooth]

An opinion that changed 180° in a couple of hours?

It is not his opinion, he just tells us that he is trying to sell or is trying to buy cheaper. There is zero information in his postings beside his side in the market.

I can't read his trash anymore.

Ignore button (or mental ignore button) please.

It tells you something meaningful when an opinion changes 180° in a couple of hours. Interpret accordingly.

This thread is filtered for on-topic or off-topic. It isn't filtered for only well-constructed or well-informed opinions.

[0nlyBTC]

Now it is time to focus on other things than buying the coin. No idea of catching the falling knife especially when the knife has not fallen that much.
Personally what I have done is to pay all the bills and stacking up fiat.
I am also doing other project so I don't have that much time for trolling here and of course, buying the coin.
No point in buying a coin that only has so high probability to go down at this point.
Better to buy when the price is low, and not necessarily even at low price if it is on the way to 0.

I always thought you were a troll trying to manipulate the price, but to be so blatant--subtlety is not your art.

I had the same feeling. I have the urge to squeeze a little more XBT out of my purse for XMR.  

[TrueCryptonaire]

Now it is time to focus on other things than buying the coin. No idea of catching the falling knife especially when the knife has not fallen that much.
Personally what I have done is to pay all the bills and stacking up fiat.
I am also doing other project so I don't have that much time for trolling here and of course, buying the coin.
No point in buying a coin that only has so high probability to go down at this point.
Better to buy when the price is low, and not necessarily even at low price if it is on the way to 0.

I always thought you were a troll trying to manipulate the price, but to be so blatant--subtlety is not your art.

I know you guys need an exit, therefore you are attacking me and attempting to pump the price.  

[Bassica]

Don't give that TrueCryptionaire any of your attention, since it's a scarce resource better spent on other stuff anyway. Not worth anyone's time, I personally stopped it a long time ago. "Newbie's"/beginning interested investors/speculators will poke right through this inept 'manipulation' with even the littlest due dilligence.

Anyways, as for what I'm thinking will happen:
The downtrend seems to be slowing down, some buys trickled in the mid 20 range to counter the selling action. By the looks of it, it seems like casual speculators are getting (back?) on board. (market buys with higher spreads, bids in 'different' places)

My earlier prediction of 23 range being the bottom still stands. If you look at the historic graph you see a lot of bounces of this resistance line, it has proven itself numerous times. I strongly believe we will see another stab at this level, and tbh wouldn't be surprised to see a double bottom form here. I have my bids around 0.00235 but have been contemplating whether to move them up a little bit more, to increase my chances a little bit more catching them here.

If 23 breaks on high volume for a longer period of time (ie a day or more) 2 things can happen. Either we pierce straight through the 21,5-22 to visit the 18 area (albeit briefly), or we will see a hefty fight in the early 20's. Historically a lot of resistance showed up in this area, combined with the fib counts i think this level will turn out to be real tricky for the bears.

For me personally it's not worth the risk to hope for that ultralow 20s buy in spot for an extra amount of xmr looking at the risks (missing out and having to buy in the 26 and thus losing 15%). But every situation is different. I was fortunate to sell quite high and have been gradually buying back in the 20s range with a lot of weight in the lower 20s (the 235 level). I just want my stash loaded up again before the next leg up starts, which I think won't be that far out. If this situation described above unfolds and a next wave builds, 43 will be an easy target and we can try to look for mid/end 50's.

[nioc]

I had just read the main Monero thread before this one and when first reading TC's last posts I thought he was primer-, their avatars are similar.

I appreciate the other contributions here.  I have been buying at the current prices and it seems I now need to buy more btc.

[rpietila]

I hate to say this but sub 0.001 is now a possibility.

0.000 is a possibility. so what. no risk no reward.

I quite recently spent a lot of time constructing a framework for the possibilities and their probabilities.

I actually got 61% for the scenario that we are much lower than 0.001 in the end of 2017.

So yes, both are possibilities.

What I sincerely hope to be interesting, is the methodology for quantifying the possible gains, and making strategies. I think it's not far away from the truth that the EV of the gain is 3700%, and when personal utility is taken into account (hitting really big is not linearly as useful as hitting somewhat big), it is still in the order of 400%.

I get it that most of you are here not to maximize gains anyway, but if anyone is, let's develop the thing further! 

[Bassica]

I hate to say this but sub 0.001 is now a possibility.

0.000 is a possibility. so what. no risk no reward.

I quite recently spent a lot of time constructing a framework for the possibilities and their probabilities.

I actually got 61% for the scenario that we are much lower than 0.001 in the end of 2017.

So yes, both are possibilities.

What I sincerely hope to be interesting, is the methodology for quantifying the possible gains, and making strategies. I think it's not far away from the truth that the EV of the gain is 3700%, and when personal utility is taken into account (hitting really big is not linearly as useful as hitting somewhat big), it is still in the order of 400%.

I get it that most of you are here not to maximize gains anyway, but if anyone is, let's develop the thing further! 

I have been working on an assessment of the possibility of offshore funds moving into this (or another) private untraceable asset class and the effects on the price of those assets. Ie trying to calculate expected value. Even if you assign very very modest percentages to that probability and the share which ends up moving in, an incredible EV is the outcome.

The amounts of wealth being hidden offshore is just immense. Just the top 30 US companies account for a staggering 1,199,879,000,000$ (1.2 trillion) in 2014. http://ctj.org/pdf/offshoreshell2014.pdf An incomprehensible figure, and mind you, this is just the top 30 of companies. There are thousands of companies and individuals hiding wealth in those taxhavens. Estimates go as high as 32 trillion. And this was just in 2012!  Imagine what that figure is now, with the excessive monetairy expansions in the US, Japan, EU etc.

With the current budget deficits of virtually every government (sponsored by superlow interestrates created by the CB's) whilst (casually) trying to be solved with austerity or taxhikes on the one hand, and this excessive hiding of wealth on the other is a growing and dangerous disequilibrium. Once taken to far (and it's rapidly evolving that way) it will agressively flip and turn. Study history and you see this happening over and over again. What will happen to all of that stored wealth? Nobody knows, but chances are that some of it will be converted to a private untraceable asset class which has the properties of a scarce commodity, with the transferability of a mainstream currency.

In the topic earlier it was asked what will happen at 2015.75 and that is, for me at least, the trillion dollar question