[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

If bitcoin crashes to 200 or below I wouldn't be surprised if Risto's friends will be interested in increasing their Monero holdings as it has a direct impact on Monero's fiat price given that Monero stays around here it is now in bitcoinwise.

At this point, Monero needs constant pumps of funds to keep the price up. However, the emission in fiat terms is so low now due to the low bitcoin price it is not impossible to even get larger amounts invested in Monero on daily basis.

There need to be an army of salesmen in XMR to put Monero to new strong and new hands prefertably (the new hands are bringing the biggest amounts of money since it is their initial investment).

[smooth]

Who was it who was speculating that with a drk price decline that we would see an xmr bump? Now drk seems to be mooning are you speculating that the inverse is true ?

Indeed the rise of DRK looks impressive.   In coinmarketcap DRK is now # 5....
However it might be just short term though...?
I do not own any DRK, but I should have bought it.
If you think XMR is the ultimate anon coin and you are a DRK bagholder, perhaps it is a good time to diversify now, right?

The rise would be more impressive if Dark-cum-Dash wasn't instamined.

The instamine beneficiaries can use their free coins like the fed prints money, to manipulate markets and pump when desired.

Are you telling me the instamined coins are actually good investment vehicles if you are able to acquire them for low price?

Well sure. First there is the tautology that if you buy something and it goes up it was a good investment. Certainly instamined coins sometimes go up, therefore they can be a good investment.

But beyond that, how everything that has been done with DRK since day one (starting with the instamine that put a huge chunk of supply int he hands of insiders), later the supply cut, then the redirection of supply to masternodes (i.e. existing holders) has been to restrict and control the supply. That is clearly going to have a positive effect on the price, all else being equal.

The downside of this is look at the risk. You are paying a 30 million USD valuation for a coin that still has near-zero adoption. Ultimately, someday, it will have to come down to adoption for any coin or it will go to zero; the crypto speculator game can only run so long. So based on that I see a whole lot more risk. Maybe you can time it right, ride it up and get out for a profit before that day of reckoning comes. If you are betting on widespread adoption then you need roughly 7x the probability of success just to break even relative to XMR. To me that seems thin.

No guarantees here, so place your bets.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Who was it who was speculating that with a drk price decline that we would see an xmr bump? Now drk seems to be mooning are you speculating that the inverse is true ?

Indeed the rise of DRK looks impressive.   In coinmarketcap DRK is now # 5....
However it might be just short term though...?
I do not own any DRK, but I should have bought it.
If you think XMR is the ultimate anon coin and you are a DRK bagholder, perhaps it is a good time to diversify now, right?

The rise would be more impressive if Dark-cum-Dash wasn't instamined.

The instamine beneficiaries can use their free coins like the fed prints money, to manipulate markets and pump when desired.

Are you telling me the instamined coins are actually good investment vehicles if you are able to acquire them for low price?

Well sure. First there is the tautology that if you buy something and it goes up it was a good investment. Certainly instamined coins sometimes go up, therefore they can be a good investment.

But beyond that, how everything that has been done with DRK since day one (starting with the instamine that put a huge chunk of supply int he hands of insiders), later the supply cut, then the redirection of supply to masternodes (i.e. existing holders) has been to restrict and control the supply. That is clearly going to have a positive effect on the price, all else being equal.

The downside of this is look at the risk. You are paying a 30 million USD valuation for a coin that still has near-zero adoption. Ultimately, someday, it will have to come down to adoption for any coin or it will go to zero; the crypto speculator game can only run so long. So based on that I see a whole lot more risk. Maybe you can time it right, ride it up and get out for a profit before that day of reckoning comes. If you are betting on widespread adoption then you need roughly 7x the probability of success just to break even relative to XMR. To me that seems thin.

No guarantees here, so place your bets.

I am not a gambler. I prefer not to buy when a coin rises at this speed as DRK does.
For Monero I hope it rises more steadily but ultra-long term.
Monero needs a rising trendline that takes years instead of days/weeks/months - like bitcoin. Bitcoin used to cost 1 usd and less and still it costs 250 usd. That's 250 times gain in dollars - and all this during relatively high emission.


In my opinion, we should not give too much overhead to DRK.. After all, there might be only one altcoin in anon niche that survives.

The noobs do not care if a coin is instamined/premined etc (I guess the majority of people do not even know what these terms mean). It is important only for us - the current crypto community. When there will be masses adopting the cryptos, they will pick up the coin that is a significiant and relevant.

[smooth]

When there will be masses adopting the cryptos, they will pick up the coin that is a significiant and relevant.

Hasn't even happened with BTC yet. For anything like XMR, DRK, etc. this is a distant possibility at best. Of course, any/all of these can happen more quickly than expected too, but I doubt it.

[GingerAle]

so I realized I should sell some XMR at 100 BTC on poloniex.

I think everyone should put a sell order at that price point.

[jehst]

so I realized I should sell some XMR at 100 BTC on poloniex.

I think everyone should put a sell order at that price point.

100 BTC for 1 XMR?

[GingerAle]

so I realized I should sell some XMR at 100 BTC on poloniex.

I think everyone should put a sell order at that price point.

100 BTC for 1 XMR?

yeah, why not?

[generalizethis]

so I realized I should sell some XMR at 100 BTC on poloniex.

I think everyone should put a sell order at that price point.

100 BTC for 1 XMR? What are you smoking?

Something he bought privately with confidence that it won't be linked back to him. Maybe 1,000,000 to 1 so Satoshi can relax too  

[coinits]

so I realized I should sell some XMR at 100 BTC on poloniex.

I think everyone should put a sell order at that price point.

100 BTC for 1 XMR?

yeah, why not?

Sounds like a good deal to me

Buy now for your retirement!

[coincreeper]

After all these attacks, a suspicious site claims to accept XMR for your "needs". It seems Silkroad related (weird language though )

http://unbouncepages.com/cooltag/

[EvanMon]

I have been seeing Monero get a lot more exposure in /r/Bitcoin lately (2-3 weeks) especially in topics relating to fungibility and privacy. Sometimes the comments are even in the positives and somewhat well received which is extremely rare for any altcoin in /r/Bitcoin. It would be like pointing out the sky is actually blue in /r/theskyisgreen and not getting down voted to hell. Makes you think maybe a few people are pausing the circlejerk and taking a look for themselves at the sky.

Examples
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2zrdxz/withdrawals_halted_as_stolen_evolution_coins_make/

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2zq0tr/theory_we_will_likely_have_two_bitcoins/

The compelling arguements against altcoins there is usually something like "the Bitcoin network effect is too great to overcome" or "side chains will make all altcoins obsolete". You have to consider the possibility that while you are waiting around for the fix to Bitcoin (that may never happen) to build a network around there are currently functional alternatives building a network effect of their own. Who has first mover advantage in this scenario? I have a feeling Monero is getting close to an adoption tipping point as more and more people start hedging their crypto portfolio after fundamental flaws in Bitcoin and other coins start causing real world problems.

[vokain]

[binaryFate]

[...]
I have a feeling Monero is getting close to an adoption tipping point as more and more people start hedging their crypto portfolio after fundamental flaws in Bitcoin and other coins start causing real world problems.

Exactly. Some people see upfront the flaws* and the real-world problems to come. (Every person who is in Monero not for pure investment but because of a good enough understanding of the tech and the social impacts is in that category).
Yet most people need the problems to happen to understand/realize/admit that something big is at stake here.

I'm seeing over and over again people dismissing bitcoin's intrinsic fungibility issues*. Today we even got Peter Todd tweeting "Want your bitcoins to be valuable? Then treat them all equally.", which is completely irrational. We can't get good enough fungibility by asking people to kindly do it, seriously...
 
It's reaching an ATD (all time deep - of heads in sand), until real world kicks the well-exposed asses.


* Bitcoin does not have "issues" or "flaws" per se, the issue lies in bitcoin being less fungible/private than what the average bitcoiner assumed it is.

[Its About Sharing]

I have been seeing Monero get a lot more exposure in /r/Bitcoin lately (2-3 weeks) especially in topics relating to fungibility and privacy. Sometimes the comments are even in the positives and somewhat well received which is extremely rare for any altcoin in /r/Bitcoin. It would be like pointing out the sky is actually blue in /r/theskyisgreen and not getting down voted to hell. Makes you think maybe a few people are pausing the circlejerk and taking a look for themselves at the sky.

Examples
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2zrdxz/withdrawals_halted_as_stolen_evolution_coins_make/

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2zq0tr/theory_we_will_likely_have_two_bitcoins/

The compelling arguements against altcoins there is usually something like "the Bitcoin network effect is too great to overcome" or "side chains will make all altcoins obsolete". You have to consider the possibility that while you are waiting around for the fix to Bitcoin (that may never happen) to build a network around there are currently functional alternatives building a network effect of their own. Who has first mover advantage in this scenario? I have a feeling Monero is getting close to an adoption tipping point as more and more people start hedging their crypto portfolio after fundamental flaws in Bitcoin and other coins start causing real world problems.

I think we are so early in this game that it is really difficult to know where she will end up. It is sort of like saying "AOL has a huge advantage at this time, has the market share (market cap) and no one stands a chance. bla bla bla." I raise questions every so often here, but I am under no illusion that any of us have the answer.

To be in the Crypto game right now, is to be an early adopter. Ok, most of us (statistically) probably got in after or during one of the more recent (2 year) run-ups, but we are still early adopters. But right now, to have access to arguably the best anonymous crypto (and not even based on Bitcoin) at less than 1 USD, is a bit similar to BTC in the early days, as we don't know where this is going. Even having 100 XMR can perhaps amount to something meaningful in 3-5 years, which is when I think we will see this space pop (barring global catastrophe or such.)

The lack of "tokens" in BTC, XMR, etc. shows clearly there is more upside than most of us can imagine. Place your bets...

[TrueCryptonaire]

What is happening, sir?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero has now long way to catch DRK... Usually DRK drops after this type of pump, but it drops over the previous peak (around 0.014 range will be the minimum price in the next dump with DRK if it behaves like it has behaved its history).
Imagine if Monero was still trading around 0.001-0.0011.

Soon XMR/DRK is 10, and it is not good if it stays like this for long term. I would have hoped to see DRK/XMR being 10 much more likely. 

[GingerAle]

What is happening, sir?

this is probably about monero being in the + green on polo again.

[iCEBREAKER]

What is happening, sir?

XMR/BTC is steady-ish at ~250% over the monthly low.  Buy interest is massive-ish at ~350 BTC.  Supply is low-ish at ~200k XMR.

The drooling masses (IE redditurds) are beginning to realize the necessity of privacy and fungibility.

Peter Todd is ready to ride the Monero Mustang, and when he tweets people listen.

In the process of an acrimonious rebrand, the largest privacy-oriented coin revealed itself to be a top-down corporatist operation controlled by This One Dude.

The DB is Imminent^TM.

[TrueCryptonaire]

What is happening, sir?

XMR/BTC is steady-ish at ~250% over the monthly low.  Buy interest is massive-ish at ~350 BTC.  Supply is low-ish at ~200k XMR.

The drooling masses (IE redditurds) are beginning to realize the necessity of privacy and fungibility.

Peter Todd is ready to ride the Monero Mustang, and when he tweets people listen.

In the process of an acrimonious rebrand, the largest privacy-oriented coin revealed itself to be a top-down corporatist operation controlled by This One Dude.

The DB is Imminent^TM.

Thank you encouragement, mate.
I guess I am depressed when I see what is happening on the other side of the fence. Should focus more on the trend we are having and not to compare coins too much.
After all, when one studies Monero's 1 mo. chart, it looks nice.

I have no idea who is Peter Todd, but at least he has a decent number of followers on Twitter. 

[vokain]

https://ca.linkedin.com/in/petertodd

Basically a BTC core dev, or at least, contributor, but he's all over the place consulting various organizations in Cryptoland. He has a beautiful mind.

http://www.coindesk.com/video-core-developer-peter-todd-bitcoins-future/

Core developer Peter Todd is known for his forthright ideas on how to improve the security and stability of bitcoin, while staying true to the technology's decentralised roots.

An avid twitter user and conference regular, Todd has worked on everything from off-chain transactions and privacy-enhancing stealth addresses to '2.0' projects like Viacoin, Counterparty and coloured coins.

In this video, he discusses his first experiences with bitcoin and precursor Hashcash and I ask how centralisation, regulation and scalability might shape bitcoin's future.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cn6MUJLJfFc