[XMR] Monero Speculation

[mambamanagement]

october 15, 2016 monero price will be what? in usd

~learning~

[1715366593]

1715366593

[1715366593]

1715366593

[jwinterm]

october 15, 2016 monero price will be what? in usd

~learning~

I'd guess probably somewhere between 0.1-100 USD per XMR.

[Erik Goff]

october 15, 2016 monero price will be what? in usd

~learning~

Nobody knows for sure of course.
For example 15 oct is around the usa elections, the us$ could collapse to 1/100th of what it is now.
This would mean that monero increases 10000% if we assume that monero will still have same value, calculated in, say, chinese yuan.

This is a crazy example of course, but my point is, it is a bit silly to measure the value of a monero in fiat terms. More logical would be to ask, how many lamborginis gold can i buy for 1 monero on 15 oct.

[mambamanagement]

where has risto been? i love reading his bold predictions! takes a guy with a real sack to see something from the seed, true genius!

[Dotto]

Dump&dumper

[needmoney90]

So much Eth stuff on the page right now. (also, Monero isn't doing so well price-wise, so that this is on topic)

[Dotto]

It´s a pity poloniex dont allow to short all the new p&d coins. Easy money running throught the sewers

OTOH, seems we are headed to .0024 before resume the calm bull trend

[explorer]

It´s a pity poloniex dont allow to short all the new p&d coins. Easy money running throught the sewers

OTOH, seems we are headed to .0024 before resume the calm bull trend

 More often than not, you are correct. 
Sorry, I bought a little @ .0025, which tends to do depressing things to the price.

[bobmarley650]

I bought a lot at 0.0025.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIQn8pab8Vc

[MrGood]

It´s a pity poloniex dont allow to short all the new p&d coins. Easy money running throught the sewers

OTOH, seems we are headed to .0024 before resume the calm bull trend

More often than not, you are correct. 
Sorry, I bought a little @ .0025, which tends to do depressing things to the price.

Why do I get the sense that you two are the same person?

[nioc]

It´s a pity poloniex dont allow to short all the new p&d coins. Easy money running throught the sewers

OTOH, seems we are headed to .0024 before resume the calm bull trend

More often than not, you are correct. 
Sorry, I bought a little @ .0025, which tends to do depressing things to the price.

Why do I get the sense that you two are the same person?

I have no idea.  To me there is no way they could be the same person.

I don't know what qualifies as either a lot or a little but I did buy recently but at >0.0025
Working 60-80 hours a week doesn't lend itself to timing the market especially when not using an exchange. 

[primer-]

 Difficulty: 2573768529

ATH...

[explorer]

It´s a pity poloniex dont allow to short all the new p&d coins. Easy money running throught the sewers

OTOH, seems we are headed to .0024 before resume the calm bull trend

More often than not, you are correct. 
Sorry, I bought a little @ .0025, which tends to do depressing things to the price.

Why do I get the sense that you two are the same person?

I have no idea.  To me there is no way they could be the same person.

I don't know what qualifies as either a lot or a little but I did buy recently but at >0.0025
Working 60-80 hours a week doesn't lend itself to timing the market especially when not using an exchange. 

Exactly.   Funds available, off peak price in an up trend, good enough.  Could be a days before I get to check in again.

[explorer]

Difficulty: 2573768529

ATH...

 >22Mh/s  right now, that's nice to see

[owlcatz]

Difficulty: 2573768529

ATH...

 >22Mh/s  right now, that's nice to see

That is pretty impressive to be honest!

[_nur]

october 15, 2016 monero price will be what? in usd

~learning~

more then litecoin definitely

[dEBRUYNE]

JoinMarket's privacy is degraded until further notice

https://gist.github.com/chris-belcher/00255ecfe1bc4984fcf7c65e25aa8b4b

[smy12]

I am now under the assumption that xmr market is so manipulated that it can not break out until there is a massive influx I.E. Mass adoption. I am now acting under the premise that I will be able to see that trend and adjust accordingly as opposed to the normal bot manipulation which I actually have been doing pretty well against. My reasoning is the continual siphoning from the cap we see each and everyday non-stop. I'm surprised it can hold it's price as well as it does. If I didn't know better I would think coins are appearing from nowhere.

[Febo]

I am now under the assumption that xmr market is so manipulated that it can not break out until there is a massive influx I.E. Mass adoption. I am now acting under the premise that I will be able to see that trend and adjust accordingly as opposed to the normal bot manipulation which I actually have been doing pretty well against. My reasoning is the continual siphoning from the cap we see each and everyday non-stop. I'm surprised it can hold it's price as well as it does. If I didn't know better I would think coins are appearing from nowhere.

I have no ideas what period of time you are talking about.

In last month price of monero rose over 47% against BTC. And 20% more against $. That is huge jump if you ask me so i don't understand why you post there cant break out.


Traders try to manipulate any coin market even BTC. Some are easier then others. Monero was hard to because of high emission first 2 years and will be easier later on, not just yet.

Bots on Polonies earn from selling you coins or BTC. They prevent you to sell them by offering them on sale. Bots are in any coin. And not only on Poloniex and not only in Crypto coins exchanges.  They have no real influence on price.

About 8000 XMR get mined daily and as we noticed on previous page hash rate is increasing that means that Miners are getting less and less for their electricity cost.

Last week 10 times more XMR was traded then was mined.

[Hueristic]

I am now under the assumption that xmr market is so manipulated that it can not break out until there is a massive influx I.E. Mass adoption. I am now acting under the premise that I will be able to see that trend and adjust accordingly as opposed to the normal bot manipulation which I actually have been doing pretty well against. My reasoning is the continual siphoning from the cap we see each and everyday non-stop. I'm surprised it can hold it's price as well as it does. If I didn't know better I would think coins are appearing from nowhere.

W0w, those were my exact words when I divested. Thanks for taking note. BTW feel free to credit me when quoting me.

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg15243777#msg15243777

...

I see the market at this point as very complex and I can see why a simple commnet  such as:

I am with americanpegasus here. ...

can lead to a misunderstanding.

OK, wouldn't be my first reading comprehension fail!

The question that comes to my mind is are we going in to a Bitcoin bubble?

I made the assumption we all agree that btc is in a bubble. Your not so sure? The average joe doesn't care less about halving IMHO this is pure speculation with a big fat dump coming.

If the answer is no then this is a scenario where moving into fiat with the idea of buying Monero in the future at a lower price in fiat terms than now may make some sense. Still even under this scenario there remains the risk of significant improvements in Monero such as the GUI and RingCT, keeping the fiat price of Monero above the current levels.

I am now under the assumption that xmr market is so manipulated that it can not break out until there is a massive influx I.E. Mass adoption. I am now acting under the premise that I will be able to see that trend and adjust accordingly as opposed to the normal bot manipulation which I actually have been doing pretty well against. My reasoning is the continual siphoning from the cap we see each and everyday non-stop. I'm surprised it can hold it's price as well as it does. If I didn't know better I would think coins are appearing from nowhere.

If the answer is yes then my take is that we can learn from the past behaviors of alt coins in the 2013 Bitcoin bubbles. Litecoin is a good example; however this market behavior was by no means limited to Litecoin. I will start with both the LTC/XBT and LTC/USD charts going back to 2012.
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/usd/btc-e/alltime
Now compare this to XBT/USD also going back to 2011
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/btc/usd/bitstamp/alltime

The salient points I see are:
1) Litecoin spikes with respect to Bitcoin at the same time as Bitcoin spikes with respect to USD. In effect Litecoin acts as a leveraged play on Bitcoin during the Bitcoin bubble.
2) The pre March 2013 Litecoin lows with respect to both USD and even XBT were not reached in the subsequent bear markets. Yes Litecoin fell from close to 50 USD to just over 1 USD in 2015, in a brutal bear market. This bear market, however, was not brutal enough to bail out a  Litecoin "short" who sold LTC for USD in say February of 2013 with the intent of buying back into LTC after the bubble burst.
3) The Litecoin lows with respect to XBT and USD  after the April 2013 and November 2013 bubbles were comparable. One possible scenario is that the April 2013 Bitcoin bubble brought a new awareness to Litcoin since it was the first bubble in Bitcoin after the creation of Litecoin. This could be relevant not just for Monero but also for those coins that were created in 2014 or later.

I have no interest in LTC and would not expect XMR market to mirror any market except possibly itself. The bolded Qualifier is a perfect example of why acting on this is a bad idea. We don't invest on a "it could" situation.

Are the markets the same now as in 2013? Of course not; however I see the differences as possibly magnifying this effect in the case of Monero. We have Bitcoin suffering with the blocksize debate and is already driving money into the alt-coins, with Ethereum being the most clear case. There is also of course the chance of some of the pending development work in Monero being completed in the interim. With all of this in mind I find the idea of holding fiat with the idea of buying Monero at a later date, creating an effective short position, an extremely risky proposition. It could work but it could also backfire badly.

I hope you correct but I am certainly shorting btc vs xmr and xmr seems to like to settle at a pretty specific area vs usd so i'm pretty confident I will increase my holdings within 6 months. XMr will definitely teach you to play the long game.

Of course this must not be construed as investment advice and any long or short position in crypto currency should be considered extremly high risk and only undertaken after obtaining appropriate professional advice.

Disclosure: I do currently hold XMR, CAD and smaller amounts of XBT, NMC and USD.

Actually only a fiduciary is obligated to take your interests ahead of it's own when giving advice all the other "professional" advisors use you money to hedge their own investments.

ADDED:

4 posts and 2 of them with any meaning are plagiarized.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=855631
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1137697.msg15307479#msg15307479
https://bitcointa.lk/threads/do-you-think-bitcoin-will-replace-dollar-soon.474260/page-12#post-11767473